We are winding up our virtual evening now to the west of OKC. Must be quite the light show. A few hours ago SPC posted about the potential ongoing this evening, WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS.
AND THERE MAY BE A CORRIDOR NEAR/NORTH OF CLINTON INTO THE ENID
VICINITY...EAST OF THE RETREATING DRY LINE LINE...THAT HAS NOT BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY CONVECTION.
Sorry bad grab but that is referring to an area of potential overnight nasties in the next hour or so. Anyway we are heading to Wichita to sleep. Looks like a this band will keep heading north, think we will wake up to some serios thunder. Look maybe for the SW , S or W side of this band during the day to be really nasty. Wichita a great place to start the day as it has great roads everywhere. Think we will be at least on the KS NE border by evening but maybe EC Ks somewhere.

Have a big night tonight so hope I can get up in time tomorrow morning (Aus time) to see how this will pan out.

Saturday 14th April 2012 ( USA Time ) Target-= Holrege, Nebraska

Surface chart indicates a surface low and associated triple in SW Nebraska, a dryline stretches all the way from the Mexican border to that low. Storms will fire along that 2000km corridor.

The impact of the low has been strengthened somewhat by SPC, the shear is quite staggering by Australian standards, approaching 100kmots at 500mb, and even 70 odd knots at 700mb.

Due to the better surface to 700 winds moisture may not be the issue I thought it was earlier.

I am going to risk it and go playing the triple point and strong shear in Nebraska.

Storms could produce some long tracked but very fast moving tornadoes.

If you want surer options the Oklahoma and Kansas appear safe bets, but may become ugly late in day as storms come into a squall line or convective complex.

Why Holrege - I always look for towns with good road options, any roads that go SW/NE along the flow of storms are especially desirable in the mid west and this town fits the bill.

Yep. The 2nd time in US history a high-risk warning has been issued more than 24 hours in advance, according to Midwest states brace for ‘life-threatening’ weather; funnel clouds reported in Oklahoma City

A quick analysis from me - it certainly is looking like a classic tornado outbreak.

A strong mid to upper level trough will eject E/NE across the Great Plains during the afternoon with a powerful 100-110knot mid level jet ripping around the front side of this. At the sfc we will have a rapidly deepening low over Nebraska with a warm front draped across far N KS moving N into Central NE during the late afternoon and evening and a dryline extending down through KS and into OK with a final cold front pushing in from the west later in the evening.

Expected conditions are HIGH END SEVERE, the only bits missing is a lack of very steep lapse rates and the actual sfc low is only going to be moderate to strong. However helicity will be more than ample for strong to violent and long-tracked tornadoes with a discrete mode favoured amongst some a mix of classic and HP supercells. The shear really is off the charts, 50-70knot Lower Level Jet (LLJ) with that 100-110knot mid level jet through 500hPa and a solid 130-140knot jet aloft with a delicious exit region. CAPE is minimal over NE which is a risk but I don't think a significant one, increasing up to 3500J/Kg in wester OK later in the afternoon with peak heating along the dryline. Now I am not sure about the worry over a lack of storms on the dryline, for me there will be enough and the shear will quickly allow discrete cells to form and track NE approx. BIG HAILERS though, there is enough dry air through the mids and the shear profile will support very very organised updrafts capable of holding massive stones to 4inches or so.

Personally for a virtual chase perspective it would be easy to say central Nebraska and target the warm front and triple point but I often (not always) find that it pays to sit a little further south with such high end convection occuring, it can clutter quickly near the warm front so I will sit back south a little into KS closer to the dryline ready to advance E/NE/N as the day/evening wears on and will prob end up in eastern NE come the end of it all.

So I will place my INITIAL chasing target as HAYS Kansas to see how we go.

TS

Well on our virtual chase, glad we woke up in Wichita, we can follow that stuff through central Kansas up into Nebraksa and try our luck. At noon CST we have DP's at 60f + and SE winds cranking in Nebraska, its the place to be!

If anyone has a decent Radar link for the Southern Plains could you please post a link....Cheers!!

Hi Jason, is this what you were after?-
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ict&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

5 supercells currently in OK/KS and have already produced tornado. Looking like the start of a very dangerous day.

Really happy with that target in not going too far north initially. Textbook discrete down the dry line, bang bang bang. Just about every cell is trying to put something down.

TS

Jeepers at the clearing (of sorts) in Nebraska as warm front punches north, starting to go nuts there....

Also another good radar site is this

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=VNX

Storms formed way west than expected And early convection Killed E Se NEB

BUT as always DL in Ks and OK putting on a Show VERY Impressive sups all putting down Tor after Tor OH how i wish i was over there 2013 cant come quick enough.

Also watch out for a Big strong Severe Squall line very late tonight to sweep through OK and KS

Salina under the gun shortly with a discrete classic supercell developing a hook echo.

Are you heading out there this year, Ruckle?

I have a tornado warning just 50 miles SW of my target of Holdrege, town is already under anvil precip by looks of radar.

Nice wall cloud and possible developing tornado with Ben Mc Millan's live cam at

http://www.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen/

Here is a level two radar grab from earlier today, NW of Greensburg, KS.

Wow at that radar image...

Yes mate, I'll see you at Hays Maccas! Just hope they leave some storms for us.

My storm is starting to look sad. The brave chaser would break off and head northwest about an hour, or take a gamble on a new piece of convection further south west near Hill City Kansas, this one is isolated and something about it says go for it - also easier to play as its moving towards the NE.

Check out the hook on the cell just approaching Hutchinson: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=ict&loop=yes

Been watching that, just SW of Hillsboro Kansas... Looks nice on a couple of chaser cams.

http://www.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen/ lots of videos here.

Isn't that where Cylve and Jane have bought a house ?