Hi guys,

Thought I'd throw this up here in the slight chance someone would be interested in joining me and a friend storm chasing the Great Plains during May and early June (or a part of it). We will be hiring a car and driving from Los Angeles while stopping at national parks along the way dependant on storm activity outlooks further east on the plains.

A feature of this trip will be to check out the annular solar eclipse occuring on May 20 from China to southwestern USA, namely New Mexico and the Texas panhandle. The last annular eclipse at sunset in North America was on December 18, 1740!

Costs will be split over fuel, lodging and car hire cost. But ex car hire I have generally found the daily expense spend to be around US$75 if splitting between two and being thrifty with spending on accomodation.

Qantas has an awesome sale running until 5 March, Sydney-LAX-Sydney for $1349 during May-Mid June.

So who's keen?

Wish i could join you again mate so Jealous, have a great time as i am sure you will and will be looking forward to your reports while over there.

This is aweswome mate! I will be doing this next year Gotta do uni first!

Quite an active day atm. Nice outbreak of severe storms in the warm sector around the Ohio River Valley. Some pretty serious straight line winds and storm motions (over 60mph).

Edit: On closer inspection not just the warm sector firing, some are making it a little way across the boundary.

Willoughby, will you be hitting the Hays Maccas again?

Looks pretty dangerous over there at the moment. Already 43 tornado reports and that number is sure to climb with numerous descrete supercells firing in a very strongly sheared environment. NWS have large HIGH and MODERATE risk areas.

As much as I like storms, this is not really want I want to see. An impressive storm moved through West Liberty earlier with a very strong couplet. NWS now has reports that a tornado moved through West Liberty with multiple injuries and deaths.

Things are still very much primed over eastern KY (and adjacent areas), surface winds are S'ly (as opposed to further south where surface winds have a greater W'ly component. This is resulting in impressive low-level shear (I'm seeing around 50 knots 0-1 km shear on the Mesoscale Analysis). CAPE is relatively low (SBCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg) but that's to be expected with an early season system.

Here is a loop of the West Liberty storm-

http://madusweather.com/misc/2012_03/20120302_KYdebrisball_loop.gif

Photo of tornado that hit Henryville, Indiana-
http://twitpic.com/8r5j85

News story-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2109540/Tornado-wipes-Marysville-Indiana-map.html?ITO=1490

Classic stuff on that radar loop. I was playing around on GRL3 for awhile and there were several that nearly had that hooked shape. Certainly an active day.

Man that radar of v-hook just speechless! That just perfect example of real tornado supercell thunderstorm. We need a doppler for Grafton radar! Crazy windshear and moisture out in US lately!

Some more on these storms

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-02...ree-people.html

Active few days have just passed and the next few looked interesting this morning on most forecasts etc.

In other news I found the following video /series for the 2011 US Season made by a couple of French guys. Was really impressed with the videography involved. Chris has said he would be happy for me to share the links on WZ for those who may not have found them already via stormtrack or general web browsing etc.

Here is the preview trailer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tA8eUDgH-E&feature=bf_prev&list=UL5YbexarQ07E&lf=channel
Here is the shorter trailer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YbexarQ07E&feature=BFa&list=UL2tA8eUDgH-E&lf=channel
This is episode 1 and you can follow the subsequent episodes from there http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB8t2Tsd18g&feature=autoplay&list=UL5YbexarQ07E&lf=channel&playnext=1

At the moment there are 5 episodes on You tube with a 6th due in the next week or so.

Well the timing is great for us in Australia who work Monday to Friday to do some virtual chasing. Couple of interesting days to come Friday and Saturday in the US. Friday pm (later today) I am heading to around Clinton Oklahoma vicinity and then move from there but as a starting point might go ok if the early storms on some models fail to materialise. Saturday US time, Sun morning here has been made a "high risk"day by the SPC I guess inspired by big old jet nosing in and various other factors. Interesting to watch and as always hope these beasties dodge towns.

Some very strong wording by the SPC. A high risk issued for a day 2 is a pretty big deal.

Here's a NAM forcast sounding for Whichita (03Z)-
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sou...ng=y&sndclick=y
Scary stuff.

Assuming I made it to Clinton by lunch its been an ok day, after my virtual disappointment the day before in NW Kansas, storms did fire early between Clinton and Lawton and now look to be training a little with a tornado warning very near the hotel we have stayed at in Norman and the uni SPC area.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/13/tornado-outbreak-expected-tomorrow-from-texas-to-nebraska/

Yes looks like this is going to be a bad day for some people.

Dead right, just looking at some models and I think SE (ish) Nebraska looks particularly dangerous (assuming DP's make it that far)on Saturday , this is also the most populated part of that state.Anywhere on the dryline could be huge on this day but that area looks most likely to see dangerous weather.

I was just going to put up a thread regarding US chase season targeting when I saw this one already established.

If you intend to travel to the US chasing ( as I hope in 2013 ) your best homework is to learn as much about the US models as possible - be brave and put up a virtual forecast !

Tornado warning just south of Cinton now, also winds backing more SE across Oklahoma so the storms in progress might get a little interesting in the next hour or two as the line creeps northward, still only 730pm so hopefully some video / photos can be grabbed by the locals in the next little while for us to see (whilst dodging inhabited areas of course).

I may be in US in 2013 though!

What are your suggestions in reading those models? They appears to be very complex, but dangerous situations!

Hi Matthew, I'll try to make this as brief as possible.

Start with the SPC Covective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Look at a decent surface chart to get a "very" broad level appreciation - notice how on this run there is a complex low over Rockies moving eastwards over Nebraska and hints of a triple point. A vigorous surface stream off Gulf of Mexico - the latter being the source of energy.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=namerica&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=24&focus=mh

Next go to a good set of models like:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=home&page=about

Look at SBCAPE around 18 to 00Z (time) - if you look at the GFS model for Sunday 00Z ( late afternoon evening Saturday in mid west) you can see a lovely field of high CAPE from Mexico to Nebraska - however chasing highest CAPE is a big mistake in the USA. That sometimes means highest CAP as well. But I use SBCAPE to see position of drylines and dryline bulges and get a generally appreciation of potential.

Next go through the wind direction and strength from surface to 500mb. Sticking to Sunday 00Z still notice that the stronger shear is towards Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska, so that rules out Texas for me.

Look at Helicity - this is turning. Note that best helicity does not always combine with highest instability, but we seem to have interest around east central Nebraska, however it is relying on moisture to be transported. Nebraska does however have that for-mentioned triple point in play. Kansas however may be safer best near the dryline with higher CAPE.

.........and those are decisions you have to make.

This is a difficult one...guaranteed storms in Kansas, or risk lower CAPE for potential nasty in Nebraska?

I would wait a another model run, also review todays action.

At this stage Great Bend, Kansas for me as a starting point with view of chasing NE, that may change.