2012 Atlantic & Caribbean hurricane Season

Get ready for an Early start to the hurricane Season most likely to be an very dangerous one ahead.....

All ready starting to see some development out this way all ready I mean.....

Here some more infomation on this web sites here if any one want to have a look at it they are more them welcome to.

http://www.hurricane.com/atlantic-hurricane-outlook.php

Here some more infomation on this web sites here if any one want to have a look at it they are more them welcome to as well.


http://earthsky.org/earth/2012-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

Actually this is the latest from the NHC:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Not sure the purpose of the post above but might be worth being more specific so as to not worry folk

It's is the start of the hurricane Season any way I will just left it's as that them see what happen after that.

Can't wait! Hope they have a good season over there (without the damage of course!).

http://www.worldweatherpost.com/2012/06/...e/#.T9GBNNUti4k

Have a read.

Possibility of a major hurricane next week impacting somewhere on the gulf coast.

you going to chase it:P

I wish mate !! Maybe one day

EC was all over the shop at the start of the week, even predicting a Hurricane Charley type track up through florida as a intense system. However if EC is anything to go by, the past few determanistic runs have shown the low likely to develop into a tropical storm within the next few days, before heading North west and crossing the coast nearly on the Mexico/Texas border as a intensifying system on landfall. Possibly as a Category 2.

80% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, heavy rain is about to impact southern florida, so looks like they are in for some fun !

Tropical storm Debby has formed becoming the earliest 4th storm in the atlantic basin on record! This might turn out to be another record breaking season.

Latest ec makes a mockery of today's morning bulletin and forcast track map of Debbie. Latest Ec pushes Debbie right into Louisiana as a significant system.

Interesting how no storms formed in July. I wonder when the last time that happened was?

You can see TC Gordon on the global sat pic tonight with a nice neat shape and well defined centre
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/satellite/
What is also interesting is its passage EASTWARD toward e the Spanish continent and passes near the AZORES.
Not used to seeing them track across due east across the Atlantic.. toward Europe..LOL

Here is the tracking and sat pic
source:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom.../dmsp&TYPE=ssmi




and here is the current progress of TC frequency in the Atlantic for the 2012 season
Currently..2012 is running above the mean for TC's atm

source:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2011/Hurricane-Atlantic-2011.htm

Here we go, Southeast Louisiana (New Orleans) region is on high alert as tropical storm Isaac gathers strength and heads towards the region. The ensemble strike probabilities from EC and GFS are making a crossing in the Mississippi/Lousiana region more and more likely as a Cat 2 hurricane (cat 3 on our scale) some recent intensity progs have upped the intensity to a C3 hurricane (c4 on our scale).

States of emergencies have been called for most coastal communities in the strike region more than 48 hours prior to landfall. Latest EC operational has Isaac at 950Hpa on landfall (approximately a weak cat 4 on our scale). Latest rainfall projections for the New Orleans area are suggesting falls of 10-20 inches.

What can New Orleans expect from Isaac - NWS

Looking at the latest water vapour loop it looks like the shear that is pushing the convection to the west might be starting to ease a little. This should allow Isaac some time to pick up strength prior to landfall.

Personally, given favourable conditions in its path, I think the NHC forecast might be a little conservative although I doubt Isaac has time to get above Cat 3 strength (on US scale).

Still the storm surge probability maps are scary if your a resident of New Orleans.

Dry air is killing it still.

Yep. Last couple of frames on the IR loop don't look good. (water vapour loop is a little difficult to view at the moment).

Still, central pressure is now down to 978.8mb and still falling. Amazing for it to still have only tropical storm force winds and a pressure so low. Ernesto was around the same pressure when it crossed in Mexico as a Cat 1 with sustained winds at 85mph. At the moment the hurricane hunters are struggling to find anything above 60mph.