#1099697 - 16/04/2012 10:20
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: kgb007]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 14575
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
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Looking like a decent rain event beginning around the weekend..... has been looking better and better over last 2 days on models - cross fingers they don't downgrade....
Also should add for the wedding I'm photographing and Andrew's wedding, it's starting to look touch and go..... Should still be a warm day, but a couple of models are starting to bring the wet weather in earlier... although my bet at this stage is it wont be till sunday...
Edited by teckert (16/04/2012 10:25)
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#1099703 - 16/04/2012 10:41
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: rstewart84]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 14575
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
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Nothing likely on Friday RS, unless some isolated storms develop in eastern districts.
The main rains look to be Sunday-Monday onwards.
I think your 40-80mm might be a little optimistic as well. Although GFS & WRF are probably not far off that in some areas. I'd be more likely to go with a 20-30mm possible in agric areas.
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#1099801 - 16/04/2012 20:58
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: teckert]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 14575
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
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Models now backing off a weekend start. Now looking at Monday onwards maybe? Still decent rainfall totals progged though.
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#1099826 - 17/04/2012 04:33
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: teckert]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Adelaide
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Well the last time gfs predicted a slow-moving cutoff low for us which was over Easter, it disappeared without trace in later runs, so I'm not confident this time around. Looking at the latest 00Z model runs, if I'm interpreting them correctly, both gfs and access are predicting cutoff slow-moving surface and upper lows, whereas ec is predicting a trough extending northwards from the southern ocean. I hope gfs and access prevail but ec looks more realistic to me.
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#1099847 - 17/04/2012 08:05
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: Unstable]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1175
Loc: Semaphore SA
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Yeah I think you might be right Unstable. Looks more typical of our recent patterns. Fingers crossed we get something  Never sure how much stock to put in this thing but I like checking it out anyway - Issue Notes-
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 April to 27 April, 4 May to 8 May, and 15 May to 19 May.
Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 April to 28 April, 28 April to 2 May, and 2 May to 6 May. From - WeatherZone Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast 19 out of the next 28-days it's given us either medium or high chance of rainfall within central district. Feels like it's been ages since the last rain, although probably hasn't been all that long 
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#1099865 - 17/04/2012 11:04
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: Chris #3]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 30/09/2003
Posts: 692
Loc: Elizabeth Park, Northern Subu...
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Whatever happens on Monday onwards, do you think this might be the break in the weather and much cooler and wet conditions to follow?
Steve
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#1099905 - 17/04/2012 16:01
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: StarGate]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 162
Loc: Malvern, Adelaide, Aus
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I sure hope so. Summer is like that guy at the party who keeps on partying and playing loud music when everyone else just wants to crash out.
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.
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#1099913 - 17/04/2012 16:46
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: berga1987]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3562
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
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I hope you don't believe that rubbish Chris 19 of the next 28 days hey? So given that the next week is likely to be dry that means 19 of the next 21 days after that will be wet? I wish! I am going to stick my neck out and almost guarantee a rain event over the Anzac day period, with no rain since the 24th of March it just increases the chance. I wouldn't expect the weather to be cold and wet from then on in either, given the weak strength of the LWT and dominance of high pressure. It would be nice to have near average rainfall in May leading into winter though.
Edited by seaworthy (17/04/2012 16:48)
_________________________
YTD: 154.6mm
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#1099992 - 18/04/2012 06:01
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: Unstable]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1230
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
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Happy birthday Helen.
WGFS has rain coming. and this time a substantial amount.
_________________________
Adelaide forcefield monitor Jan 16 mm Feb 43.5 mm (35 mm in one storm (flooding around munno para)) Mar 12.5 mm Apr 38.5 mm May 58.5 mm (cherryville fires) June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD 169 2012 417 mm 2011 598.5 mm 2010 553 mm
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#1100082 - 18/04/2012 15:49
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: buggerthatwasclose]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
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Man check out GFS 00z update. Cut-off instability spectacular!
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#1100102 - 18/04/2012 18:05
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: seaworthy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1175
Loc: Semaphore SA
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I hope you don't believe that rubbish Chris 19 of the next 28 days hey? So given that the next week is likely to be dry that means 19 of the next 21 days after that will be wet? I wish! Haha nope. I look at it more like - since it's forecasting 19 possible raindays, then it has to get a few correct at least Getting more confident in the models as we get closer to the weekend - surely we'll get at the very least a bit of rain, and hopefully something a bit nicer. These coldies have to start breaking through sooner or later - WGFS turned me into a believer. I like the looks of regular GFS! Happy Birthday Helen Hope this year brings you tons of awesome photos.
Edited by Chris #3 (18/04/2012 18:13)
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#1100119 - 18/04/2012 19:32
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: Chris #3]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 08/12/2011
Posts: 928
Loc: Findon, Adelaide.
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I'm keen as a bean for this system !  Lets just hope there's at least one storm or at least some good rain !
_________________________
Member of the Facebook page, Mid North Storms January: 14.4mm YTD: 96.9mm February: 6.7mm March: 17.8mm April: 24.1mm May: 33.9mm
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#1100136 - 18/04/2012 20:57
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: Rolling thunder]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 873
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
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Lots of pirocumulus around the place. This one looking up my street. Happy birthday to you Helen!  [url=  ][/url]
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#1100162 - 18/04/2012 23:15
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: Skysthelimit]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 14575
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
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nice shot Nick.
Yer models still a bit waffly, but all are in agree-ance with some good rainfall from Saturday onwards. Farmers def need to expect up to an inch in agric areas (over the forecast period), which will be great.
Chance storms too, especially with the upper low, Monday and Tuesday.
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#1100223 - 19/04/2012 11:54
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: teckert]
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Photographer
Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9449
Loc: Mid North, SA
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Thanks for the birthday wishes, fellas. Was a good, but very busy day... as most have been of late.
_________________________
2013 YTD - 28.4mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 0.0mm (10mm) / Feb - 28.4mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2012 - 359.2mm
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#1100237 - 19/04/2012 13:21
Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
[Re: Helen]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Adelaide
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Aye Helen, making hay while the sun shines, gathering nuts and seeds for winter I see gfs have yo-yo'd again, downwards this time. And what does BOM make of all this? Here's their current rain forecast "Cumulative rainfall totals from Thursday morning until midnight Sunday are expected to be 2 to 5 mm, reaching 5 to 10 mm about western and central districts." This is becoming a bit like Blue Hills (for those mature enough to remember Blue Hills) - I probably listened to a few thousand episodes.
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