looking at both ACCESS and GFS, from this friday/Sat on, the weather along central and northern QLD really looks to be packing it in mate. Not beautiful at all?

Beautiful if u like rain aye Poncho

That looks to be all trough related mixing with some moisture advection from a fresh to strong easterly stream. Could get some decent rain out of it, but I wouldn't think it'll turn into anything of note cyclone wise. None of the models hint at anything out there.

Hi all, It's all but over this 11/12 cyclone season and now all we need to do is wait till it's April 30 to make it official. Bring on the upper level troughs till November 1 2012. Plenty of time to save up the $$$ for the next season's storms.

Shane.

Seasons not over til the fat lady sings. I think theres stil a chance that people might be suprised. Warm sea tems stil good for rain down the qld coast. An storms. Whats the chance a system could form out of this I say mabey a week into may

I am a keen reader of the forum. I very rarely comment as I do not posses much technichal knowledge; just a keen weather observer for 50 years. Even last year I was amoung a small minority who could tell that last seasons Coral Sea cyclone season was over by the middle of March and now this season is OVER.What has east coast lows or rain caused by upper troughs with an onshore airstream etc got to do with cyclones.

Rare but not impossible to have a cyclone form in May in the Coral Sea or indeed NT or WA so although I am prepared to call the seaon deadish, I wouldn't be gob smacked to see something spin up even this late in the season.

ECLs are intense but very short lived extra tropical cyclonic type events. For a cyclone to form you need an area of instability and a trough is sometimes all that is needed to kick start one.

Hopefull and everyone else, never be scared to make an observation or ask a question. No one learns if questions aren't asked and you can bet pounds to peanuts that if you don't know something there are hundreds of others out there who also need to know.

Thanks for the kind offer Sir Boab Tree

Yeah I'm am going with a samll chance %50/%50 chance that is all I can say for at the moment if it's develop or not this systems at the moment.

I am tipping a samll chance of seeing an cat 1 Tropical Cyclone maybe if it's does it's or not.

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 26th of April 2012 and valid until end of
Sunday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A trough lies over the Coral Sea and is expected to move west to lie just off
the tropical coast by late Friday. While the trough is expected to deepen over
the next 24 to 48 hours, the environment is unfavourable for tropical cyclone
development.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Very low
Saturday: Very low
Sunday: Very low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

as posted above, NOT likely to form into a cyclone,


PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For Cardwell to Gladstone.
Issued at 3:05 pm EST on Thursday 26 April 2012

Synoptic Situation
A high [1028 hPa] over the Great Australian Bight extends a ridge over southern Queensland. A trough lies over the western Coral Sea and is forecast to strengthen and move west during the next 24 hours. The trough is expected to be located just off the tropical Queensland coast by Friday night. There is the chance that a low pressure system may form on the trough off the central Queensland coast early Saturday, with the possibility of stronger winds.

Strong Wind Warning
Cardwell to Bowen
Expect S to SE winds to increase to 25 to 30 knots during Friday afternoon and evening. Seas increasing to 3 metres.

Strong Wind Warning
Bowen to Gladstone
Expect SE to NE winds to increase to 25 to 33 knots during Friday afternoon and evening. Seas increasing to 3 to 3.5 metres. E to SE swell 1.5 to 2 metres developing in open waters.

Yep conditions look horrible for any development. Susan Boyle has sung for the season.

LOL I see what you did there!

hahahaha

A very lacklustre season indeed. Well, after last season, I guess we all needed a bit of a breather.

A nice little strong cat 3 would have saved the season. Actually a low cat 1 may have saved the season. The curse of the coral sea is back.

at least you guys got to chase a decent Tc this season even of you had to travel to the other side on the country to do it

Yes so did I. It should go into the Classic WZ Posts Vault.

Might be pretty quiet for the next few seasons if we descend in to an neutral/weak El Nino phase.

i didnt go through a tropical cyclone, but i did get to go through a tornado in my suburb, now that was different!!!

Stop picking on Susan. It's genetic!

I think you won Mick. At least you were home for it. Oh the irony

Neutral or weak nino doesn't necessarily translate into a quiet season. Moderate to strong might though.

As this season has proved perfectly a nina doesn't mean TC's either!

Yep agreed CF. Another good example of that was the 07/08 season which was shocking too and that was during a La-Nina as well.