eerr the mjo is over africa at the moment and it set to die and loop back over Africa in the coming weeks according to NOAA.

I was tempted to say the cyclone season was over for QLD back in November lol. But I thought I had better not just incase there was a 996hp LOW that BOM had to name. Just stirring guys. Been a quite one this year for QLD hey. Time to enjoy the dry season and the long wait until next wet season. I might even be down in Tassie for next summer if business plans work out so plenty of 996hp LOWS of a different type on the cards for me. Take it easy guys.

the models said so, it must be right, do you have any of your own input to suport the ensembles

I predict there will be no cyclones in July or August.

/sarc off

Lol not dry here we have had rain on and off all week. However I don't want it to get dry, I hate the dry season so cold and miserable. Also those lows that form down in the southern regions, half of them are lower then TC lol.

The only cyclonic action around my place is when I borrow my daughters Dyson Vacuum Cleaner.

As we move into a Neutral/El Nino phase we will see drier Wet Seasons and probably fewer cyclones but that doesn't mean no cyclones.

There hasn't been a season since offical records started in 1906 that there hasn't been a cyclone in the AOR but there have been plenty of seasons when only one or two formed and they never made a coastal crossing.

early May cyclone time in the CS!!

Are you panic mongering or straw clutching?

Not impossible for a cyclone to form in May but I haven't seen anything in the models (yet) to show anything spinning up.

Straw clutching and also trying to stir. But, there does look like a large amount of moisture forecast by both ACCESS and GFS in the CS and NT around the 30th of April,so, if something was to spin up it would be in the begining of May.

Bad boy TC... pretty much zero evidence of that from the more responsible modelling ensemble wise.

yeah but those only show pressure and windspeed, not moisture and troughyness.

Example?

Nitso did mention a while ago we could see a tc in the region that is over 1000HP. A rare event but still possible.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=192&focus=mh

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=192&focus=mh

Nitso would certainly not be betting the house on this one. Highly unlikely... GFS has a vague low deterministic... EC reckons we in the north are in for beautiful weather... I tend to agree.

oh well, we will what and see.

Spot on Booms I wouldn't be betting any more than a 10c coin on anything happening in the CS again this season.

Temps at 50m deep are starting to become marginal and the Winter upper pattern is starting to take the place of the beautiful upper pattern that existed in March and early April. Perhaps a weak LOW again in the Arafura is a possibility but for mine that's all she wrote this season for the Coral Sea.

TC Fina and TC Jasmine and a borderline TC Fina MkII that hit SE Queensland. So 2 official systems for the year, pretty dismal considering we had a whole month of beautiful upper level conditions anywhere north of Cairns, in what is traditionally the most active cyclonic period.

Wonder if an el nino next Summer will bring us more luck...

again, we will wait and see.

LOL... TC.. I recall last season and the one before we kept it going.... trust me I have never said it's over. But right now there is naught.

Ah well roll on November. El Nino doen't mean no cyclones, just teh chances of one forming are somewhat lesser than during a La Nina. (I think).

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap11/fujita2.html