#1107365 - 02/06/2012 17:17
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 17/10/2010
Posts: 166
Loc: East Mackay
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Can we close this thread yet? Surely no one's still clinging to hope for this season lol!
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Nothing exciting here, im scared i'll offend someone.
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#1107542 - 03/06/2012 17:13
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Mat]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 20314
Loc: Vincent, Townsville - NQld.
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no need to close a thread, someone might have some stats on this season or something that maybe of some interest. but certainly there is no reason to continue posting in it if its nothing related.
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Vincent, Townsville Nth Qld - May 2013 Total - 38.2mm (17mm) June 2013 Total - 2.0mm(21mm) 2013 Year to Date - 593.4mm (1132mm)
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#1107544 - 03/06/2012 17:23
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Mick10]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3445
Loc: Cairns
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Well said Mick. What may be of minor interest to the "Low" fiends among us is that low thats going to hit the Tasman over the next few days... watch the satellite... some of the models have been showing a dip as low as 970hpa .... oooh... rotation!
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius
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#1107545 - 03/06/2012 17:27
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 450
Loc: Townsville
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Well said Mick. What may be of minor interest to the "Low" fiends among us is that low thats going to hit the Tasman over the next few days... watch the satellite... some of the models have been showing a dip as low as 970hpa .... oooh... rotation! I don't think that was what Mick was talking about...refering to a tasman low 
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#1107548 - 03/06/2012 17:36
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: gazzatsv]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3445
Loc: Cairns
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Well said Mick. What may be of minor interest to the "Low" fiends among us is that low thats going to hit the Tasman over the next few days... watch the satellite... some of the models have been showing a dip as low as 970hpa .... oooh... rotation! I don't think that was what Mick was talking about...refering to a tasman low Fine Gazza.... perhaps I should simply start a thread where people interested in lows could discuss them regardless of the boundaries? Wait a minute... I think I did that before with the cyclone lounge and then copped enormous heat as the discussion went outside AOR boundaries (hence my request to shut it down). What do you think the solution may be? I'd appreciate some constructive input. Cheers
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius
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#1107559 - 03/06/2012 18:39
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 450
Loc: Townsville
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I for one think the lounge idea was good however it isn't rocket science that you don't discuss Tasman ECL's in a tropical low and cylone forum. You are just going to have to take up the disussion in the relevant NSW and Victorian threads about these systems.
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#1107561 - 03/06/2012 18:50
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: gazzatsv]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 20314
Loc: Vincent, Townsville - NQld.
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yes, that is correct, and ecl forming off the SE Qld coast, should be discussed in relevant forum and thread. if its not a developing tropical low, it shouldnt be discussed here.
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Vincent, Townsville Nth Qld - May 2013 Total - 38.2mm (17mm) June 2013 Total - 2.0mm(21mm) 2013 Year to Date - 593.4mm (1132mm)
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#1107568 - 03/06/2012 19:57
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Mick10]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3445
Loc: Cairns
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Fair enough... I agree this is not the correct forum, however, before I go any further I will point out Mick's earlier comments that "someone might have some stats on this season or something that maybe of "some interest", but certainly there is no reason to continue posting in it if its nothing related" can quite easily be interpreted to mean commenting on a deep low on the East coast as being entirely acceptable... it is after all of interest to those who are affected by similar events.... that it doesn't happen to be in the CS is simply being beholden to a thread title. I digress. Back onto the topic for which I am being chastised. There is little option to post relatively locally on a subject that is of interest for those who reside outside of a threatened area (particularly as there are often multiple threads discussing the same event elsewhere... and woe betide somebody who multi-posts). If I were to set up an ECL thread I am convinced I would cop the same flak as I did with the Cyclone Lounge. I agree that for major events a certain protocol should be followed... eg WA thread for an Indian TC. However, as most people in the Far North are well aware, I disagree all events must be discussed in the forum where the events are actually occurring, especially if they hold an overarching interest that may hold little actual personal relevance impact wise (ie.. somebody from Cairns or the Ville discussing a deep low off NSW), and whose interest is academic or simply knowledge gathering/sharing. It has been well and truly established (see Yas) that it annoys people if members from afar (ie: interstate) start holding discussions that get in the way of their thread, and especially if those posters start using examples or tangents not pertinent to the area immediately under threat (this ECL is a good example of being worthy of discussion to those interested in lows, but for the most part those comments and observations may not be of interest to those in the affected area.... yes I could PM but in doing so there is an exclusion process that fails to benefit pretty much both those doing so while also ignoring those that maybe able to contribute to the conversation). Putting an ECL thread into General Weather is a possibility but I doubt it would gain the support required form the powers above for the aforementioned reasons. I've clearly tried in the past to resolve this impasse (with heaps of support)... but have failed. I won't go down the Cyclone Lounge/Cyclone Central path as I appreciate the powers that be have taken certain suggestions on board and are considering them for next season. However, rather than risk setting up another thread that will potentially earn the wrath or distaste of certain people I will continue as before. Should that mean having my posts removed as being "inappropriate" ... then so be it.
I look forward to constructive suggestions.
Cheers
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius
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#1107600 - 03/06/2012 23:57
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 12881
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
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So a ECL forms that is south of the Queensland border, that contains cyclonic elements/features but it can't be discussed within the Cyclone forum because it is in NSW, yet cyclones have impacted on NSW in the past. Is it any wonder we are confused? What is an East Coast Low ? East Coast Lows (ECL) are intense low-pressure systems which occur on average several times each year off the eastern coast of Australia, in particular southern Queensland, NSW and eastern Victoria. Although they can occur at any time of the year, they are more common during Autumn and Winter with a maximum frequency in June. East Coast Lows will often intensify rapidly overnight making them one of the more dangerous weather systems to affect the NSW coast. East coast lows are also observed off the coast of Africa and America and are sometimes known as east coast cyclones.
How do they form? East Coast Lows may form in a variety of weather situations. In summer they can be ex-tropical cyclones. At other times of the year, they will most often develop rapidly just offshore within a pre-existing trough of low pressure due to favourable conditions in the upper atmosphere. ECL's may also develop in the wake of a cold front moving across from Victoria into the Tasman Sea. The sea surface temperature gradients associated with the warm eddies of the East Australian Current also contribute to the development of the lows.
The gales and heavy rain occur on and near the coast south of the low centre, while to the north of the low there can be clear skies. The challenge for forecasters is to accurately predict the location and movement of the centre of the low.
Why are they dangerous? ECLs can generate one or more of:
Gale or storm force winds along the coast and adjacent waters Heavy widespread rainfall leading to flash and/or major river flooding, Very rough seas and prolonged heavy swells over coastal and ocean waters which can cause damage to the coastline. Falling trees and flash flooding have caused fatalities on the land, many small craft have been lost off the coast and larger vessels have run aground during these events.
How often do they form and is there a trend? The Bureau has a detailed database of these lows beginning in 1973. Each year there are about ten "significant impact" maritime lows. Generally, only once per year do we see "explosive" development. Looking at all the lows between 1973 - 2004, there is no evidence of a trend.
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lexDyscis luRe!! Scientific knowledge is always tentative and subject to revision. The entire history of science is littered with discarded theories once thought to be incontrovertible truths. Prof David Deming
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#1107630 - 04/06/2012 07:16
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: SBT]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 10793
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
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An ECL is MUCH different to a TC...
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Belgian Gardens 2013 YTD - 595.0mm March - 70.0mm (Avg 66.8mm) Bilyana 2013 YTD - 1465mm April - 148mm (Avg 215.3mm) Bilyana Current Weather
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#1107667 - 04/06/2012 09:48
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Raindammit]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 19194
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
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Cold cored verse warm cored topic again
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Any forecasts made by myself are NOT official, and should not be used as such. Always refer to www.bom.gov.auTropical Cyclones Chased - Tessie, Ului, Anthony, Yasi, Lua December 2012 - 50mm January - 293.5mm Feb - 70mm Mar - 183mm Apr - 75.5 May - 35mm
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#1107793 - 04/06/2012 19:42
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Trav Dog]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 20314
Loc: Vincent, Townsville - NQld.
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I fail to see any confusion at all, if its in the coral sea, if it 'looks' like developing into a cyclone then this is the thread. if it isnt, then there will be a thread elsewhere, there is no confusion. i fail to see the problem. and if any member on this forum has a problem with people from anywhere posting about an event in any forum then it should be brought to a moderators attention. there is no excuse for that.
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Vincent, Townsville Nth Qld - May 2013 Total - 38.2mm (17mm) June 2013 Total - 2.0mm(21mm) 2013 Year to Date - 593.4mm (1132mm)
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#1108085 - 05/06/2012 15:44
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Mick10]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 626
Loc: Ravenswood QLD/ Melbourne CBD
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I don't know why you guys quib about where people talk....it will eventually be moved just for logistics reasons but initially no need to ark up about it and most people will redirect their comments to a particular thread if it has been created. silly people.
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#1108156 - 05/06/2012 19:48
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Rainy Night]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 639
Loc: Greenbank, SEQ
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There is no confusion...I think that when it comes down to a cyclone or a Low all the good people to chat to are in this thread or a tropical qld one.Yea we could talk about ECL's in other threads but I think boomer was more talking about it because it looks to be making it's way back up to the Coral Sea. Me personally I like hearing what some of the fellas up North have to say about these systems. The lounge was good but it only got closed down because it was asked to be closed down lol
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#1108166 - 05/06/2012 20:25
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Steve O]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3445
Loc: Cairns
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There is no confusion...I think that when it comes down to a cyclone or a Low all the good people to chat to are in this thread or a tropical qld one.Yea we could talk about ECL's in other threads but I think boomer was more talking about it because it looks to be making it's way back up to the Coral Sea. Me personally I like hearing what some of the fellas up North have to say about these systems. The lounge was good but it only got closed down because it was asked to be closed down lol Not quite true on Cyclone Lounge El Stevo. I asked for it to be shut down as it was quite clear that it was going to be shut down (I wont go into why I know that). While I really appreciate your support... as for the ECL, no I didn't think it would find its way into the CS... the models and the charts make it clear its not going to happen. It is about discussing Lows... as a general discussion... no matter warm or cold cored... as you say there is a group of people who like to chat about these sort of systems. As for Rainy Night's comments... yes, I am fully aware of the difference... but as already expressed it's about commenting the various forms that lows take.
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius
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#1108171 - 05/06/2012 20:48
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 639
Loc: Greenbank, SEQ
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BoM 4 days chart seems to think it will make it up into the CS.
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#1108176 - 05/06/2012 21:07
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Steve O]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3445
Loc: Cairns
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Apologies... technically and according to the EC deterministic (marginal and debatable in reality as to where this and other possibly associated lows will end up) you are correct. If a low is above 30S, then yes, as defined by the boundary between the Tasman and the CS it is the CS. LOL To be honest I didn't consider that... I've never really thought of the CS being that far south..... but that is the point... why does it matter where an arbitrary line is drawn. Good point El Stevo
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius
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#1108201 - 05/06/2012 23:37
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3445
Loc: Cairns
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El Stevo (and others who may have some misconceptions re the beginning and end of the lounge... I'm sure the mods will be fine with the clarification as it needs to be made clear they did not actually shut it down), for the record, here are the first and last posts of the Cyclone lounge
The first post was immediately changed to dovetail into the existing system... this is contrary to the threads actual intent. Bear in mind the original rationale and post was to open up discussion across boundaries, especially AORs, it was also put in place to ease pressure on threads where serious action ie: Yasi was likely to take place... unfortunately the ideal was completely misunderstood and thus doomed from the beginning.
THE FIRST POST *edit* By Raindammit
This thread is for all general tropical cyclone discussion, no matter where you live in Australia. Please feel free to post any questions, thoughts, general comments here.
Any posts relating specifically to a current system should be in that particular thread.
Edited by Raindammit (5/09/2011 13:04)
THE LAST POST Originally Posted By: boomer Okay, I concede, we have lost. I request that the cyclone lounge be shut down (I started it so I guess it's fair I request its demise).
I, along with several others, started the the cyclone lounge after the debacle of last year around the time of Yasi. The intent was to create a space where there were no real rules as to what could be discussed. WZ has not embraced the concept and is clearly content with its prior structure. To that end, the Cyclone Lounge should be killed.
Posted by Raindammit This thread was never a war or competition that could be won or lost, that's an odd statement to make.
The reasons why the thread is failing: -multiple cross posts -people are totally ignoring the world forum -you can't have a thread with 'no rules' (as proven by the current confusion)
Mods and admin have been discussing the pros and cons of this thread since its creation, and the overall opinion is that it will just not work.
We had already decided to close this thread at the end of the current season, but as Boomer has requested that it be closed now then so be it.
Please now use the relevant threads in the cyclone and world forums.
I concede I (boomer) did not articulate my last post well... but for anybody involved none would agree it was about having no rules... however, there is no doubt it was about pushing for change. Unfortunately it simply didn't work in the eyes of some. I specifically include the very highest level of admin in this last comment. However, I understand some change may be underway... I keep my fingers crossed in regard to next season... which is actually not very far away.
Edited by boomer (05/06/2012 23:54)
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