Well after a week where the models went nuts, throwing up armeggeddon type scenario's , contradicting each other etc. we seem to have settled on an outcome.

Front approaching today and tomorrow with a low deveoping and hanging around central or eastern VIC for a few days. In front of it some periods of shower or storm chances and behind it some strong winds and some cold uppers that may help to enhance rain and get the jumpers out of the top draw!

EDIT: Worth considering the band over SA and whether it will hold to give Western VIC a bit of a soak.

The band over SA is already stopping before it reaches Adelaide lol, Monday the best storm chance?

Keen to see it arrive at Wonthaggi (my first Winter front down here).

That is one MASSIVE cold front approaching Victoria atm, I love the satellite pics


3.2mm of rain this morning, very foggy too, but quite pleasant outside (20.3C on my thermometer), gentle northerly wind, a bit hazy though and plenty of mid-level and high-level cloud streaming out of the west/northwest

Edit: a bit of lightning detected out near Nhill, maybe some late thunderstorm activity for Melbourne overnight?

Edit: the updated Melbourne forecast calls for showers and afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow, hopefully we'll get something

I think thats the trough, the main cold front will be the one behind it.

A bit of lightning out in the far west atm. I think the gap between the left overs of the SA rainband and the little low behind it could make for some ok storms in the west of the state tomorrow, dunno if they'll make it to central parts but heres hoping cuz I cant chase tomorrow...

Cold from late Monday into Tuesday looking pretty good, 850hpa temps around freezing (at least to the west) and hints at decent rain in sth central parts into Wednesday.

Cold pool looks to be heading NE so should take some coldies up into the NE of the state.

So does that mean the possibility of storms could be on for the next 3 days? Tuesday more so from coldies but still.

Tomorrow will be the last chance for "real" storms. Only day with genuine warm air in the mix. After that I can't imagine anything more than coldies, which don't get me too excited, to be honest.

Little bit windy here in Red Cliffs Town at the moment. Quite timely actually. Looks like the Riff Raff that's been in the street all night, just took off.

It's now started raining, so the street is now very quite.

Just been woken to rather heavy rain. Wasn't expecting anything until lunchtime or after today, is this unexpectedly early or is there more to come for the day?

A ripper of a deluge at home between 4 and 430, 7.4mm fell, thunder and lightning as well. City less than a mm - looks like I got lucky!

The thunder got here earlier than I expected, hope there is more but the would bee delusional folly.

Well thunder over night wasn't expected at all because it wasn't part of the main trough which is still behind Melbourne.

Got woken by the thunder here @ Q with some rain but only 0.4mm in the gauge. DVC

Woke up from my sleep too Ruckle, thinking a little voice was saying to me - "Tell 'em their dreamin'" - when we received a tremendous downpour and thunder/lightning too
It was a lovely sound to be woken by. Not like two nights ago, when I launched out of bed, coz the dog was going nuts and I thought I heard someone breaking in to my/or other house - and broke a toe! Feel like a twit.
Anyway, this beautiful rain has dampened/washed away the masses of yellow pollen/dust covering my street (many huge gumtrees).
But it still feels very humid - might bring on some more lovely rain (and storms?) later.

Starting to fire now.

Ant..with regards to the BSCH Stormcast site, I clicked on the new Super Celll format, and it shows the areas but I wasn't sure of the colour indicator. With the regular one it is Yellow for possible...Orange and Red. Does the light pink indicate low probability for super cell or where is the legend to explain it all ?

We had no rain overnight or thunder that I am aware of.
Sun is in and out wind picking up a bit as well.
No birds around this morning, that always warns me.
Wind seems to be keeping any activity from the west away from us.

Looks like bulk of rain will be on Tuesday into Wednesday from what I can see.

looks like a line thunderstorm will develop along SA/VIC boarder to let NW wind shift SW/W gusty wind..