#1082346 - 28/02/2012 15:53
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: paulcirrus]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 261
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
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Exactly. I agree.
Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Tuesday the 28th of February 2012 and valid until end of
Friday
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
A weak trough sits across the northern Coral Sea and may develop a weak low in
the central Coral Sea later in the week. It is unlikely that this low will
deepen significantly.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Eastern region on:
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Low
NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
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#1082455 - 28/02/2012 18:44
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Hurricane force]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 997
Loc: Tekowai Qld Aus
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I wish I had a copy on hand of the experts predictions for the season of above average amount of cyclones ......... hahahah I wonder if they are the same crew who predict climate change stuff too lol. They only had to guess it 3 months out not 30 years 
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The answer is blowing in the wind my friend
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#1082465 - 28/02/2012 19:04
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: PDM]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 12891
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
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We have had 6 cyclones in the AOR this season so far. WA looks likely to have at least 1 more but I agree not much happening in the next week off Qld. Not totally writing the season off just yet though. Posted this in the now defunct Cyclone Lounge on the 15/2/12 2011/2012 Cyclone Seaon Summary.
Australian outlook for Wet Season was for above average number of Cyclones. BoM spokesman in december said possiblity of up to 14 cyclones this season.
Australian average is 12 according to BoM.
So 6/12 = 50% of forecasted average with 2 months to go.
Alenga WA 6/12/11 - 10/12/11 (Formed outside of AOR but entered it before is collapsed)
Fina Coral Sea 21/12/11 - 22/12/11
Grant NT/WA 25/12/11 - 30/12/11
Heidi WA 11/1/12 - 12/1/12
Iggy WA Jan 26/1/12 - 3/2/13
Jasmine Qld 4/2/12 - ?/2/12
Edited by Sir BoabTree (28/02/2012 19:10)
Edit Reason: added quote
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Dyslexics luRe!!
Scientific knowledge is always tentative and subject to revision. The entire history of science is littered with discarded theories once thought to be incontrovertible truths. Prof David Deming
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#1082490 - 28/02/2012 19:47
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: PDM]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 328
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EDIT: Just read SBT above...he beat me to it! I have to say I think people are writing off the season way too early! There’s still at least two whole months left (maybe three, while not officially “The Season” May can still produce cyclones) And I think even while the season hasn't been overly exciting, it's not that bad so far. There has been 6(5?-I am skeptical of Fina but not Jasmine!) Named tropical cyclones existing in the Australian AOR, 2 TD's monitored by Australian cyclone warning centres that eventually were named beyond our AOR-Both Western region, Hilwa and Benilde, and at least one tropical LOW worthy of mention(because it had a possibility but conditions didn’t quite go it’s way), Darwin LOW caused extensive flooding throughout parts of inland QLD(24th Jan-30th(?) Jan). On the extended outlooks that Pic Du Midi mentions, they do indicate a high possibility of above average activity (Eg. BOM- 80% chance of above average(12) TC's basin wide. TSR-69% chance of above average(11) TC's basin wide.) In the end these kinds of outlooks are just that- [a probability]-that doesn’t mean it's a concrete forecast of actual numbers, more so that the indicators(and I will get to these!) used show that the probability of exceeding anyone one climatic norm(above/average/below) will be XX%. So in TSR's case... 69% chance of having more than 11 TC's includes a probability of 25% of an average season and 6% of a below average one, you only need a 1% probability for something to occur(if you follow me?). On the indicators, these are why they aren't terribly accurate, I believe TSR use SST data only and BOM use SOI + SST data(but I am not 100% sure) , when using only two very narrow indicators and TC's being such a complex weather phenomena is it any wonder why TSR's forecast skill for their outlook is 37%? I am thinking if we pick up another four or five across the basin-which is definitely doable, the outlooks will be pretty dam close to being verified... in my eyes anyways! Sorry to play devil’s advocate in a thread where people think the season is dead... you have your opinion and I have mine!
Edited by Lightning....LEE (28/02/2012 19:49)
Edit Reason: Because "quick fire" SBT beat me to it! Geeze for a Wobbly Old Wombat you do type quick!
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#1082497 - 28/02/2012 20:00
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Lightning....Lee]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/03/2004
Posts: 1278
Loc: Bluewater Park,Nth of Townsvil...
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Just had Burnsie on 9 news say its the worst season Cyclone wise he has ever seen but things may change in the next couple of weeks.
Take those words as you like but obviously the BOM havent given up for something to form this season, still 2 mths to go and thats a long time. It doesnt take much time to form something out in the CS.
I havent given up yet either.
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#1082607 - 29/02/2012 01:05
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Lightning....Lee]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 10564
Loc: Cairns
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EDIT: Just read SBT above...he beat me to it! I have to say I think people are writing off the season way too early! There’s still at least two whole months left (maybe three, while not officially “The Season” May can still produce cyclones) And I think even while the season hasn't been overly exciting, it's not that bad so far. There has been 6(5?-I am skeptical of Fina but not Jasmine!) Named tropical cyclones existing in the Australian AOR, 2 TD's monitored by Australian cyclone warning centres that eventually were named beyond our AOR-Both Western region, Hilwa and Benilde, and at least one tropical LOW worthy of mention(because it had a possibility but conditions didn’t quite go it’s way), Darwin LOW caused extensive flooding throughout parts of inland QLD(24th Jan-30th(?) Jan). On the extended outlooks that Pic Du Midi mentions, they do indicate a high possibility of above average activity (Eg. BOM- 80% chance of above average(12) TC's basin wide. TSR-69% chance of above average(11) TC's basin wide.) In the end these kinds of outlooks are just that- [a probability]-that doesn’t mean it's a concrete forecast of actual numbers, more so that the indicators(and I will get to these!) used show that the probability of exceeding anyone one climatic norm(above/average/below) will be XX%. So in TSR's case... 69% chance of having more than 11 TC's includes a probability of 25% of an average season and 6% of a below average one, you only need a 1% probability for something to occur(if you follow me?). On the indicators, these are why they aren't terribly accurate, I believe TSR use SST data only and BOM use SOI + SST data(but I am not 100% sure) , when using only two very narrow indicators and TC's being such a complex weather phenomena is it any wonder why TSR's forecast skill for their outlook is 37%? I am thinking if we pick up another four or five across the basin-which is definitely doable, the outlooks will be pretty dam close to being verified... in my eyes anyways! Sorry to play devil’s advocate in a thread where people think the season is dead... you have your opinion and I have mine! Agree. Far from dead, just late. Models are suggesting a chance of a TC off WA in the next week or so and the surface water across the top end and coral sea are certainly warm enough if other ingredients decide to play ball. TC Aivu was an April system (Cat4) 1-5th and was followed in May that year by Meena May 5-10th (cat 1) . TC Orson(cat5) crossed the coast of WAjust sth west of Karratha on the 23rd of April 1989 and was still cat 5 at crossing time. The season isn't over. Infact it may be just getting fired up properly!
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#1082622 - 29/02/2012 05:51
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 343
Loc: Burpengary QLD
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Of course the above contributors may turn out to be right but I am hoping nothing ever develops because any cyclone will probably just shoot off to the se anyway. Every day I am just amazed how hostile the weather pattern is not only to development but to blasting anything that does off to the east.
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#1082673 - 29/02/2012 08:59
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Hopefull]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
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This morning's multi models show:
An 80% chance of a LOW forming in the Coral Sea today or tomorrow between 10 - 15S and 155 - 160E. The LOW begins to move SSW and then in a more WSW or West direction on Saturday. The LOW is likely to cross as a weak LOW or trough in the Ingham to Mackay region on Sunday or Monday (70% probability), current model track mean consensus crosses the system near Bowen Sunday, but it's a long way out and this is likely to change significantly depending on when the system takes on a more westerly movement. At this stage the system is being given a VERY LOW chance of forming into a tropical cyclone (<10%). As we mentioned for the past few days, we expect this system to cross as a trough or very weak LOW. It should enhance rainfalls over the weekend and early next week as it crosses the coast. On latest model guidance the LOW has likely already formed at about 10.5S and 159E.
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#1082806 - 29/02/2012 12:00
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: nitso]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 12891
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
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Thats good news Nitso. Some action at last. It looks like a rather wet start to next week is possible even if it doesn't form into a cyclone. Might have to look at buying a bigger rubber stopper for my cane. Lol. Thanks Lightning Lee, quick with the fingers, slow with the legs and even slower come march 13. Knee operation Version 2.0. In a strange twist of fate I was due for surgery the day Larry wandered across the coast so it was postponed for 24 hours. I wonder if something like that could happen this time? i.e. another cyclone the day i'm due for an operation 
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Dyslexics luRe!!
Scientific knowledge is always tentative and subject to revision. The entire history of science is littered with discarded theories once thought to be incontrovertible truths. Prof David Deming
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#1083114 - 29/02/2012 18:26
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: SBT]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6641
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
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Here a bit of an update Here are some of the low we should be keeping a watch on that might developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the coming weeks ahead. Here what I point out in red for you what do you all think I will left that as that.  
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YTRTotal 2011-2012> 67.2mm.
(Last hour 0.0 mm - 0.0mm.
Last 24 hour 0.0mm, Last week 00.0mm, 67.2mm last Months
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#1083166 - 29/02/2012 19:52
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Mat]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3446
Loc: Cairns
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Leo from Cairns BoM has just said expect at least two more CS TC's before the end of the season
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#1083167 - 29/02/2012 19:54
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3446
Loc: Cairns
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Mathew one of those systems is in the Northern Hemisphere, the other? Are you pointing at the gulf or the cluster east of Cape York?
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius
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#1083193 - 29/02/2012 20:22
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/03/2004
Posts: 1278
Loc: Bluewater Park,Nth of Townsvil...
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Well boomer maybe we will have something to watch before season end.
Probably by the time something forms everything else will be not right and it will spear of to the SE.
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#1083205 - 29/02/2012 20:36
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6641
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
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Yeah I am with you there.
Who know I am going for my %50/%50 chance any way that one hear the Northern Hemisphere to move into the Queensland coral sea and move to the SE away from the QLD coast or hit the QLD coast that what I think any way in the next few weeks time.
The low hear Cairns I am going for a samll chance of that low developing into a Tropical Cyclone if it's does it's or not over the weekend or next week if it's move into the Goc waters or the QLD coral sea waters.
Just a bit of a note.
Some of these systems could be slow moving.
I like to know what do you think what that one or not?
Edited by Mathew (29/02/2012 20:41)
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YTRTotal 2011-2012> 67.2mm.
(Last hour 0.0 mm - 0.0mm.
Last 24 hour 0.0mm, Last week 00.0mm, 67.2mm last Months
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#1083209 - 29/02/2012 20:46
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: boomer]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6641
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
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Hear Cairns I was pointing that another one I think. If you are wounding. 
Edited by Mathew (29/02/2012 20:47)
_________________________
YTRTotal 2011-2012> 67.2mm.
(Last hour 0.0 mm - 0.0mm.
Last 24 hour 0.0mm, Last week 00.0mm, 67.2mm last Months
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#1083259 - 29/02/2012 22:15
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Mat]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 19195
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
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Matthew cyclones cannot move across the equator.
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Any forecasts made by myself are NOT official, and should not be used as such. Always refer to www.bom.gov.auTropical Cyclones Chased - Tessie, Ului, Anthony, Yasi, Lua December 2012 - 50mm January - 293.5mm Feb - 70mm Mar - 183mm Apr - 75.5 May - 35mm
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#1083264 - 29/02/2012 22:23
Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12
[Re: Trav Dog]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6641
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
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All well I will just left it has that them.
Any way that a bit of a look any way what developing up north a bit any way.
_________________________
YTRTotal 2011-2012> 67.2mm.
(Last hour 0.0 mm - 0.0mm.
Last 24 hour 0.0mm, Last week 00.0mm, 67.2mm last Months
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