Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Dan Geofisika not very keen on this system. GFS always spins up systems, so take it with a truckload of salt.

http://meteo.bmkg.go.id/data/tc/IDJ21030.txt

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 20:48 WIB 07/05/2012

Depresi Tropis

Kondisi tanggal 07/05/2012 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 7.2LS, 128.3BT (sekitar 390 km sebelah selatan Ambon)
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 08/05/2012 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 8.5LS, 127.2BT (sekitar 545 km sebelah selatan Ambon)
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 09/05/2012 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 9.7LS, 124.6BT
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 10/05/2012 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 10.6LS, 122.0BT
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Bibit siklon tropis ini mengakibatkan terjadinya hujan sedang - lebat di wilayah Nusa Tenggara Timur dan perairan di sekitarnya. Hujan ringan - sedang berpeluang terjadi di Sulawesi Tenggara, Nusa Tenggara Barat bagian Timur, Maluku Tenggara dan sekitarnya.
Gelombang tinggi lebih dari 3 meter terjadi di Laut Timor, Perairan Kep. Sermata-Leti, Laut Arafura bagian barat, Laut Arafura selatan Merauke.

That was 16 hrs ago when everyone was not keen on it. I wonder if this see sawing system will make everyone (JTWC, INDON) backtrack again on their very changeable forecasts to have a system back up and running again. The 72hr precipatable water loop certainly has it winding up reasonably nicely. 72hr precipatable water loop

Err, GFS is the outlier. It's notorious in spinning up non-events. This isn't going to pan out anything like it.

I thought that this forum was meant to support a bit of light hearted "have a stab at it" type of predictions.... Especially as this is 99% just a bit of interest to our north just settle down and have a laugh... I know we've got the BOM statistics just a click away but I am going with an old local bloke here in town who told me that about every 50 years or so Broome get a cyclone in May or June.... So a low end Cat 2 crossing between Broome and Wallal. Anyone going to challenge that LOL

GFS has to be given some credit this season. People are too easy to dismiss them as garbage when realisticlaly they have done OK this season. No doubt they have thrown in a few doozies aswell but they picked up on this system early along with CMC. They also had the system of a few weeks ago aswell. The usually trusty EC missed this one alltogether but I guess time will tell as to how accurate the GFS forecast is.

Sepo I think it may even be a coast hugger right the way down to Perth LOL.

What ever is going on up there with this system though is quite the opposite of what is supposed to be happening. Yesterday when it appeared to have a clear field of shear around it and to the south the convection was spread all over the place. Today when the shear is increasing the convection seems to be developing beautifully all around it. Figure that one out?? Convection is decreasing a little though in last few frames.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:20 pm CST Tuesday 8 May 2012

Valid until the end of Friday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located in the Banda Sea, near 7.8S 129.2E, about
400 kilometres east northeast of Dili. The low is expected to move slowly
southwest on Wednesday and Thursday, close to or over the island of Timor, then
move steadily west later in the week. There is a possibility that the low could
take a more southward track into the northern Timor Sea before turning west,
away from the northern region. If the low takes a more southward track, the risk
of tropical cyclone development late Wednesday or early Thursday would increase
slightly.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday: low,
Thursday: low,
Friday: very low.

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Tuesday the 8th of May 2012
Valid until midnight WST Friday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region at present.

At 8am WST a tropical low, 1002 hPa, was located in the Banda Sea, about 550
kilometres north northwest of Darwin. The low is expected to move slowly
southwest during Tuesday and Wednesday, close to or over the island of Timor,
then move steadily west later in the week. There is a chance that the system
will develop into a tropical cyclone but it is likely to remain outside the
Western Region.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday :Low
Friday :Low

The above from BoM is in line with the other ensembles such as EC (shows a much more northerly track than BoM and the deterministic is at right angles to the ensemble mean), UKMO (a more southerly track) and to a lesser extent CMC... although I'm waiting for more current runs for all (as noted GFS is the most bullish about a more southerly then westerly track.... as pointed out earlier where the ensemble outliers were discussed). What is interesting is that the aforementioned loop da loop is not completely ruled out by both CMC and EC (if I'm reading it correctly of course).

Overall I'd agree with you however it was the first model to pick up on TC Yasi and move it west towards the coast at 16 days out. So sometimes it does get them right.

Ensemble wise GFS is still bullish with the deterministic doing the loop and the mean heading west once it hits about 15S. About 40 per cent of tracks are either crossing or close to the coast (some others are doing some really weird stuff).
CMC is pretty confident with a SW track with some outliers further south and a truly wild one putting the system into the GOC.
UKMO is pretty much westerly while EC does the same after painting a nice graphic of OZ in regard to its control.

So it depends on who you believe… GFS is pretty lonely on this one.

Ha they are kind of back on board again.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 9.1S 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSERVED BETWEEN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. A
080715Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED WEAK BANDING, WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 080316Z OSCAT
PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHARP TROUGHING STRETCHING ALONG THE
8S LATITUDE LINE, WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 30-35 KNOTS NEAR 129E
LONGITUDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS JUST
EQUATORWARD OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH APPROXIMATELY 15-
20 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS THE RECENT MOVEMENT HAS HAD
A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS), THE VWS HAS
RELAXED SLIGHTLY AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO IF THIS MOTION PERSISTS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT REGENERATION OF TC 19S IS
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IF THE SOUTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT
MOTION AND RELAXING SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Yep definately back on board again now.

WTXS21 PGTW 082030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 129.6E TO 11.6S 126.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081732Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 128.9E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 128.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BANDING CONVECTION PERSISTING
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 081540Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH STRONGER WINDS (30 KNOTS)
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ENHANCING
POLEWARD VENTILATION. AS THE LLCC APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS,
DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING VENTILATION WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
REMNANTS OF TC 19S TO REGENERATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS, BASED ON AN
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON
THE DEEP BANDING CONVECTION PERSISTING, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092030Z.//
NNNN

Good pick up Popeye, it actually looks more like the real thing now and some areas or rain appear to be encroaching the NW coast.
I see WZ has pencilled in ANOTHER low in the GOC later on in the week .

The low will probably drift SW initially then generally westwards or thereabouts for the near future, under the influence of weak steering from the midlevel ridge to its south.

Below is a map generated by the GFS ensemble which shows the spread of most likely possible tracks for this low. This scenario is similar to the EC and UK ensembles, as well as the ATCF multi-model track map that the JTWC uses, but the EC indicates a curve towards the north in a few days is also an outside chance. The latest intensity probabilty forecasts from those ensembles still aren't forecasting any major intensification at this stage.

Wet weather returns to the Top End
Tim Hooton, Wednesday May 9, 2012 - 14:24 EST
A tropical low spinning off the north coast of Australia is directing heavy rain over parts of the Northern Territory's Top End.

This low pressure system may intensify into a category one cyclone as it continues to track over the warm waters of the Timor Sea. While the system is remaining north of the continent, it is generating heavy rain over the northwest coast of NT.

Today McCluer Island has already received 75mm with a peak of 8.8mm in just 10 minutes at 10:30am. This is the highest May rainfall for the area since 2004 and splashes past the average monthly total of 47mm.

This rain should stick around over the next few days as a series of troughs develop in the region.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2012

Not far off the other ensembles... all exclude anything like landfall (zero outliers)... EC and UKMO have it swaying further north on the turn and in the former back into Indo.... North American boys dip lower.

Check the NT thread... I'm staying out of this one
http://meteo.bmkg.go.id/data/tc/IDJ22100.html

Indonesian Track/Threat map for a Category 1 TC threat to the Indonesian coastline
PETA LINTASAN SIKLON TROPIS DAN
WILAYAH YANG TERPENGARUH
Depresi Tropis NONAME
http://meteo.bmkg.go.id/data/tc/IDJ22100.html

Jakarta TCWC has issued a tropical cyclone warning for the following areas:
The areas east of Ende Regency to Tandjung Lisomu and Pulau Timor.
A tropical warning will apply to East Timor, but this is not issued by Jakarta TCWC

Jakarta TCWC has issued a tropical cyclone watch for the following areas:
The areas west of Ende Regency to Mataram.
The tropical cyclone watch area may later extend further west to include the island of Bali
The island of Pulau Sawu and the island of Sumba

EGC:2:1:24:10S126E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 141 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 20:24 UTC 09 May 2012

SITUATION
At 18:00 UTC Low 1002 hPa was within 50 nautical miles of 9.9 S 126.4 E moving west at 8 knots.

This tropical depression may not develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 12 - 24 hours.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 25 knots expected 25 knots again in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

06:00 UTC 10 May: Within 80 nautical miles of 9.8 S 124.2 E
Central pressure 1002 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.
18:00 UTC 10 May: Within 110 nautical miles of 9.6 S 122.9 E
Central pressure 1003 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 01:00 UTC 10 May 2012.


Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA