With the big spiral bang on Tassie? Bullseye for sure.

Yes , Plenty of heavy rain in the Bart. Totally fogged in and can't see anything around the Valley. I wanted to go up the fire trail today for a walk and check it out but it won't stop pouring.

It's amazing that the low bullseye is still so close to Tassie. Which fire trail do you like to walk? There are so many tracks on the mt and surrounding ridges to walk.

I mainly go up the Lenah Valley fire trail , to Junction Cabin and over to the new North South Track on a long walk. Short walks I just stick to the Main Fire Trail and the Lenah Valley trail.
Also I love the Pipeline Track from South Hobart. It's amazing how you can escape into the forest just 10 mins from town. A warmer week ahead can't wait for the next series of lows.

Junction is an interesting spot for sure.

The next series of lows might be quite good for you - as long as they don't end up as "cutoff" lows and push over the North Island.

Just booked a flight down to Tassie on the 15th-19th May for a bit of a look around for work. Timed it nicely with a big high sitting over the state for the period and it so happens to fall just after a big thumping LOW has dumped some snow. I'm heading up to Cradle Mountain. Im a bit worried now, what are the chances of that area being closed for a few days if the snowfalls are reasonably heavy over this coming weekend. Ice on roads etc. Any info would be appreciated. Cheers.

Not often the roads are closed really. Snow at road level will melt fairly quickly in general. Once you get a bit of elevation past Moina the country opens up and melt is generally really quite quick in the open.

I assume you will hire a vehicle - go awd or 4wd just for some extra piece of mind. It's really only about 10 to 20 km where you MIGHT have some on the road but someone will have been through before you to clear a path for sure.

Ice will really only be about if it's frosty and early and in shaded places. Watch shady bends if it is frosty. There is one particular spot that is known to locals but I cant quite work out how to point it out to you. Say half or 2 thirds of the way between Moina and Cradle is a spot where you are sheltered under a large cutting which blocks the sun and it's a left hand bend going towards Cradle. Don't rush but don't panic either just keep speed around 80 ish in open areas and you will have time to react.

Remember - Clear conditions, temp under 2 or 3, shady corners go steady. If the section of the road is experiencing conditions that are cloudy, sunny or windy, ice is much less likely in that spot.

You don't get above 800m until pretty much at the accomodation areas. Looks like the southerlies will be about so it will be chilly and the isobars say expect a reasonable breeze for that added wind chill. No worries after Broome

Re ice - most times you will notice obvious signs of frost eg white icy grass. If it's frosty be more aware.

If there are no signs of frost then USUALLY the chances of any other ice basically fall well away.

As I said before don't panic though, people not used to it usually fear more than is necessary - just be aware.

And here's a bit of a soundtrack to the whole thing:

Cheers for all that info DaveM much appreciated. Really looking forward to it. 3rd trip to Tassie in 6 months. I love the cold temps. A big change from a decade in the tropics. Used to work up in the snowfields of VIC and NSW before moving to WA so looking forward to the feeling of cold again. Havn't worn long pants in over 10 years and I dont own any ATM lol. Might need to do some quick shopping in Launie before getting on the road.

Did hire an AWD this morning and I think I know that area you were talking about 2/3 the way up. The long range forecast has some good below 0 temps on the cards for WED/THURS/FRI mornings with reasonably clear skies so will keep an eye out. Again cheers.

I Have found this website fairly accurate in its predictions. I am pretty sure it is a representation of the EC model which is fairly on the ball most times.
LONG RANGE FORECASTS FOR CRADLE MOUNTAIN

-5 and -7's Youch!!!

Correct. It is based on EC. Does look like some pretty hefty snow , but bear in mind that the forecast is Cradle Mountain and the given altitude is 1340m. The lodge is about 800m and Waldheim about 950m from memory, so there will be differences in temperature and rain vs snow.

That's right Laurier, the road in is low enough that it rarely has HEAVY snow (but can sometimes) and it's so open it melts quickly in most spots.

Popeye - jeans will do for long duds. Beanie might be handy to have in the car too, especially if windy.

Yeah that road spot is obvious although you don't get a LOT of warning coming from Moina way. The road is hard in against a fair sized cutting on your RHS and it's shady, left hand bend at the bottom. That's the main one the locals treat with respect. It can hold snow and ice, the snow should be gone by the time you get there though.

Make sure you take a camera

SB - well done

Looks like Tassie is in for a very interesting next few days
The surf is apparently going to be up to 8 metres on the west coast I know that this side of Tassie is not heavily populated, but wish I was there to see this.

Yeah the West coast gets pummelled by big seas on a regular basis. Some of the wave buoys over there have had ridiculous wave heights, 8 metres for there is not all that uncommon actually - fishing boats off sthn Tas have an interesting time. One of my friends has a fishing boat and his stories about waves, seals, Orcas etc - very interesting.

The conditions you see in "Deadliest Catch" etc happen down there too.

[Here] is the Cape Sorell waverider buoy to watch over the next few days. The highest wave recorded there has been 18.68 metres on 11 July 2011.

Just had a play around with the Norwegian/EC site and here's what I get:

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Oatley/long.html

I wish it was that cool, add about 5C each day and you'd be about right. There's no way it will only be 23C tomorrow! Wind direction is about the only thing that seems right.

Today's top of 29 at Observatory Hill was the highest May maximum in 70 years.

Why are the last two posts in the Tassie thread?

Homer

I was thinking the same thing lol. Im a bit surprised that no warnings were issued for the upcoming event in TAS at the 5pm issue considering this low pressure system and cold front are forecast to pack winds gusts to 125km/h+ for the SW corner. 3day Accumulated precip totals are forecast to be around 100-125mm range for the West aswell.

Yes, fair question Homer. Unfortunately, there are few Taswegians in the Tassie thread either. For some reason they all migrated to Stormplanet [here] some time ago, and they've even gone a bit quiet on that lately.