We may as well start a new thread up for this system as it looks likely to be a talking point over the next few days.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1912.gif

WTXS31 PGTW 070900 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 6.9S 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.9S 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 7.6S 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 8.4S 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 9.7S 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 10.8S 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.3S 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.0S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 7.1S 129.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
A 070120Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 30 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC
19S IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TURN POLEWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TOP END OF AUSTRALIA STRENGTHENS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER THIS STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, AFTER
TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
UNTIL AFTER TAU 36, WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE. BOTH GFDN AND GFS
MAINTAIN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, WHERE UKMO AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT:
NEW MSI SHOWED THE LLCC TRACKED FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE THE
TURN POLEWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

Quite a prominant shift in the projected path from this morning bringing it closer to the Nth Kimberley coast. This morning had it a 75 knts max this evening up to 65knt.

Well there you go mate... you cycnic!

Thats a nice path straight down over ocean the whole way. Now lets see what a good MAY NWEST cyclone can produce. Bring it on!!!!

edit HA HA bommer. Yeah a bit gob smacked by the whole thing really. Was just saying to the missus tonight how sticky it still is and when is the dry season really going to start. There is potential still out there if the Broome weather we are experiencing at the moment is anything to go by. Waters are still warm. Still got these humid seabreezes which should have buggered off by now. Its an interesting start to the so called dry season. No rain but definatly lingering humidity and the winds of the wet season are still here.

More importantly, what's happening high wise in the Indian?

I dont know but the big monster LOWS are clobbering Perth ATM and if anything may create troughing down through WA and possibly draw this system a tad further poleward before recurving to the SW. Inititiating way up in the Banda sea though may be out of the grasp of any southern steering influences. Anyone feel free to correct me on that though.

I cant really pick anything amongst all of this though.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

SSTs are still OK for the Nwest
CSIRO POINT AND CLICK SSTs

Vorticity is present and seems remarkably good for this time of year.



And Shear tendancy has it moving down through some ideal conditions.

Based on all of the above and other elements including shear and favourable uppers... I still reckon this will cross. I'm probably wrong but based on the current patterns it seems inevitable.

The last thing the Kimberley needs is a late wet episode and closure of the Gibb River Road for another few weeks. That would push the closure into June and have some very angry disgruntled tourists. I still can't believe there is a good potential of a cyclone into early to Mid May for the NWEST and Kimberley. We will have to update the weather comp for this late system if it forms.

Looking more closely at the modelling (what's available) most are predicting a a SSW then SW run before a westerly turn at approx 13S. The median is then a turn to the NW (loop de loop methinks).
Early days.

So now your importing cyclones hey guys? Oh well I hope it forms into something exciting because there is naff all to talk about over here. As for tourists, meh I could live without them clogging the roads like slow moving speed bumps.

Over before it really began?

From The JTWC
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 129.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 19S HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND NOW HAS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, A
071110Z SSMIS DEPICTS A VERY WEAK, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE KNES AND PGTW 25 TO
35 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT COULD POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP AS IT
TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET.//

HA yeah right I thought it was all too good to be true. Mind you the 9 hours since JTWC's last update it has shown some great flaring in convection. Its like its doing the opposite to what JTWC is saying. Yesterday they talked it up to 75knt down to 65 knots and then it just fell apart. Today they are diminishing it and it decides to flare up and look half reasonable again. Will be good to watch exactly what it does over the next 24-48 hrs and if the Kimberley cops any rain. If the tourists get a bit disgruntled we will send them over Townsville way to cheer SBT up lol.

Hehe ha ha!! I realise that this comment was made last night, and that you've probably changed your mind since ... AND I also realise that on this forum one is supposed to be tolerant of outlandish predictions, BUT very late season tropical storms (won't call it a cyclone) inevetively stay well to the north of the continent for reasons I think it not necessary to mention.
Cheers!

LOL RN. Pardon me for making such outlandish predictions mostly based on those pesky JTWC boys and those silly meteorologists who contribute to multiple model tracks. However, yes, I do concede it does not look as promising as last night.... but further modelling shows a number of outliers (about 25 per cent) crossing or lurking around the coast in the WA / NT border area. Further to that JTWC are not discounting regeneration.
Late TC's or lows can still happen if the right conditions are there, May or otherwise .... the experts (of which I am clearly not one of) were saying watch this space... as they are still doing so, I reckon I will too.

I dont like quoting myself but I reckon JTWC spoilt their excellent record this season. But as you say there is still time for this system to pop down into better conditions. JTWC 75 knts down to 65knots and this morning no further alerts will be issued for this sytem. Cmon JTWC lol.

In all honesty I hope it forms though and puts on a show for us in May. Nothing much else going on weather wise in the tropics especially the nwest. Its showing a few more promising signs on SAT images compared to this time yesterday.

GFS still has it intensifying as it approaches the Northern Kimberely before weakening just offshore so give your post some time Boomer and you may be quite close in your predictions.

certainly intensifying today CI values up quite a bit T value back to 2.5 and a Vmax at 35 knots. Very cold cloud tops this morning associated with very deep convection to the west of the system's core. Cloud tops have warmed slightly in the past 2 hours. It's probably about as good as it's ever looked right now (and that's not saying too much considering its terrible previous satellite appearances)