Yes, long wave patterns are looking flatter than a Cronulla beach break in a howling westerly. Things can change suddenly but we may well be in for a fairly benigh stretch now for some weeks or longer, in a strong cold front context.

Yes that mad peak in about 10 days has rapidly disappeared too. Not uncommon to have flat weather in May really - just ask the snow resorts. Interesting how GFS and AXS shoving the cold air well up just off the east coast after having it so flat for here.

First signs of the approaching cool change around this morning. It is a rare DRY and MILD morning - no condensation on vehicles or grass, it's not COOOOLD n frosty, there is some cloud in the sky and it's not just rising fog. All in all this morning feels COMPLETELY different to what we've had the last week or so.

How much of a change we get remains to be seen - but as mentioned by others - it certainly looks like it will slide right by, it will however still drop our temps a good 10 degrees or more from those of the last few days - so this little warm spell is just about done around here.

Yes looking pretty flat but fairly typical for May really.
However it can change quite suddenly and quickly at the end of the model runs. In fact already 18z GFS has thrown up another near miss cold change that is almost a carbon copy of what we will get this weekend.
Yes very dry this morning and no frost that I could see this time.

Yes, as we have said, would rather have it burst forth in June anyway. Here's hoping we get some good systems this year. As long as they come by mid to late June, I will be happy.

Cold air not far away from Tas now - the sat pic tells the story, once the low centre gets slightly more east the speckle begins.

Nice to see the statewide radar coverage Mt Koonya now gives, except, perhaps, for a short section of coast from Strahan down to a bit south of Low Rocky Point. Maatsuyker's lowest pressure was 994.0 at 10.51 - has been rising unsteadily since probably due to wind pump with gusts up to 132km/h. Speckled cloud has been coming in since about 11.30 with temps now into snow territory - 0.2 at Mt Read, 0.8 Mt Wellington. Tassie forecast is still snow down to 700m today and tomorrow, 800m Sunday with forecast 850 temps between -2 and -4. Wish it was farther north.

Yep Bathurst elevations in Tas get quite decent snow down there

You really need to be at least in the 40s latitudes to get any sort of sustained winter weather- this holds true in most parts of the world but particularly in the Southern Hemisphere where oceans rob airmasses of their cold. Tassie should by rights get the best of Australia's meagre cold rations, so I don't begrudge it.

"The Bx" may not get a lot of snow but it's fortunate to get cool nights at any time of the year which almost makes up for it.

Bathurst's overnight temps in winter are far colder than Hobart & Launceston. Even Dubbo is colder overnight than Hobart in Winter, for that matter so is Narrabri (Hobart about .2 warmer in June nights however NBI colder in July/Aug.

That would shock many people.

We lived at 330m asl in a Hobart suburb and had settled snow generally about 4 times a year - snow fell many more times - at least a dozen days we would have some flakeage. HOWEVER - we rarely got frost - so how different is that to here.

How cold is the air? currently "apparent temp" on Mt Wellington (Tas) minus 17 that'll cool anyone down a bit. Actual temp 0.4 obviously snow showers about and strong winds. Be nice if that low had moved northward a bit.

Tassie remote cam http://wphc-webcam.federalit.net/webcam.html for anyone interested. The wind is howling on the bay with boats swaying back and forth.

I prefer the Rose Bay High School cam of Mt Wellington for clarity [here]. The Mawson Tow cam at Mt Field NP is now showing full cover (between the rocks) [here].

Hard to believe but there is still a tiny chance of a snow flake on the CT's on Sunday. Very very tiny one, but not zero.

Sydney's dry start to May could equal the 1882 record if no rain falls by Wednesday, Weatherzone is saying. At least there was a powerful outbreak in 1882 (27/7) with three feet at Kiandra and snow showers in Coonabarabran. Forbes obs show 47F at 3pm on that day.

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/13515688?searchTerm=snow+orange

Another consolation is that its rare to get two very dry months in a row, so June might show some good results in a frontal context.

Looking at the Wrest Point Cam - it looks like snow down to The Springs which is about 550 or 600 metres settled, flakes would be lower than that.

Blizz, my thoughts are with 2008 now, remember how dry and mild May/June were then winter hit with a vengeance for 2.5 month until mid September. Alps had the longest stretch of continuous below zero temps in their record, (which is not that long, but still impressive).
May had only 3mm in Sydney, then June was the really dry warm month on the tablelands while Sydney had one last go at some coastal rain.
Hopefully we can get this mild/dry spell out of the way by maybe mid June this year. Would be a bonus if we could get some action before then like in 1882.

Yes, 2008 was a decent winter. No big falls but nice and frequent. It's the only time (August 2008) I've seen snow in the BMs, incidentally. May is usually the most benign month weatherwise, bridging the gap between the coastal summer rains/troughs and the stronger fronts.

Mountain H2o said snow on Mt W was down to 300 m - that's a very good fall for May.

Yes, 2008 was good, not great but good and regular. We had lots of snowfalls up in the BM but only light settling:

http://www.blackheathweather.com/2008.html

More cold early in 2008 though, with that excellent April outbreak.

I used to keep detailed obs here at my place and in May 1999 I recorded only 13mm for the month. That June outbreak on the 14th, was an excellent fall across the OP although we only had snow showers here in Blackheath. Over a foot of snow on the OP, I left before I got stranded.

Two young women took this photo for me, when I asked them what they were doing out at Shooters, shivering in light clothing, they said: 'Our boyfriends are in prison, up the road!'

http://www.blackheathweather.com/winterarchives/oberon2a.jpg

http://www.blackheathweather.com/winterarchives/oberon5a.jpg

I have no idea what this season will be like but I am guessing it will be pretty strong once it gets going.

I just found out about that minimum security prison at Shooters a while ago- it's for young offenders. There's also the prison farm near Sunny Corner (Kirkconnell). Why do criminals get to live in these places, lucky ducks!

A foot of snow even at Shooters is rare these days, that's over 30 cm in the new school.