So there is convection associated with those showers to the SE!!!!

Yeah steveo, seems like some decent cells off the hunter coastline according to the radar - for this time of the morning anyway!

Yeah spotted some distant flashes toward the NE from the North Shore last night... that weak upper trough forming along the high ended up generating some offshore storms, in particular ESE of Forster and nearby areas. 500 temps certainly not overly impressive... with those cumuls clouds earlier this morning alongside cb's offshore losing their effect and deteriorating steadily during the late morning.

17.8/7.4, 51% and 1021.3 atm... remaining rather dry as those W/NW winds continue during the next hour, but one would assume moisture levels would rise as the seabreezes influence the coastal fringe.

Cells have fired up (but have recently raced away) around about 200km offshore from the NSW coastal fringe... however no lightning evident overlooking the horizon from Sydney's North Shore at least.

7.4/4.5, 82% and 1016.8 hPa atm... which may be an indication of that weak upper trough centred over the Ivanhoe/ Cobar region progressively moving east. I have been unable to gather confirmed barometric pressure reports from both stations, hence unable to know the precise central pressure of the weak upper trough... all recordings seem to be manual unfortunately.



Fingers crossed that this trough will strengthen, stagnate and stall tomorrow night... generating an impressive offshore lightning show and storm treat for residents of coastal NSW!!!! Relatively high moisture levels and cold uppers look set to produce something quite out of the ordinary for winter

We won't see any storms here for a while, but in teh SW sky we have Cu storm-style clouds forming. Too loose and not angry enough for the real thing, but they're not winter clouds.

There were some storms off shore of northern NSW the past few days must be associated with that trough

theres some pics on this site
http://stormchasing.com.au/modules.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=616

Wasn't game to start a thread in the Breifing Room as haven't really put any thought into this , but some colour popping up on the radar over the Blue mountains & some semi-threatening looking clouds outside.
andrew

Definitely some precipitation falling from that cell to the east of up here in Wenty - ?between Springwood & Woodford.
Andrew

I just noticed that aslaws. Its looking good. Hoping there might be a rumble a bit later.

Cold upper temps at moment - am I being stupid to look out for a few rouge flakes in these showers. May be a better chance higher up in Katoomba to Mt Vic corridor.
Andrew

when I lived in the UK we use to often have sleet or even snow showers during spring with cold upper temps despite the fact that the ambient temp was 6-7C. At work so not sure of the temp drop in these showers but looking at the BMCC website temps are heading south up at Katoomba. Often this weather station is unreliable but in the rain & wind it is usually spot on.
Andrew

I work in the gully between Katoomba and Leura at about 12:30 we had a storm which produced fairly heavy rain mixed with flat pieces of ice.I'm no expert but I don't think it was snow flakes...it just wasn't cold enough.I've always thought that hail was roundish pieces of ice.This was flat pieces of ice.
Very pleasant here at Mt Vic at the moment in front of the fire.
Cheers Dave

Mild here tonight with a moderate NE breeze blowing atm, associated with that trough approaching from the west. Although storm potential (as Ben has discussed in the BR) lacks moisture for tomorrow night and those 500 hPa levels only lingering around the 20- 22 deg mark... one would assume the best chances of achieving some additional storm action would be in association with offshore lightning shows that feed on the ocean moisture as the trough heads out into the Tasman.

Otherwise... temperatures around 6 to 7 degrees above average tomorrow with maximums forecast around 23 or 24... conditions are indefinately beginning to feel more and more like September!!!!

Currently 9.8/6.3, 79% and 1019.1. Conditions rather moist atm, with that high dew point and humidity edging towards the 80% mark. Fog not a possibility, however, with that fresh at times N-NE wind... eliminating the stable coditions ideal for fog to breed.

Fingers crossed for storms tomorrow again!!!!

its nice and mild now in observatory hill which is currently a balmy 14c at 7am.I think moisture will be to low for anything special as its already down to 50% at obs hill in the northerly air stream.

i have a westerly here and its only 7c with 90% RH but i would say as soon as the northerly picks up it will dry out

"Mild" night here for this time of year, hovered around 10c all night. Can see that front to the West though, hopefully some moisture for us today.

Mike.

So warm here, including last night. I've taken out one of my doonas already. It was windy yesterday, but today is rip-roaring gales battering the house. Blazing sun, and warm despite the wind. This can't be August.

Well was there ever a winter? Waterspouts, hailstorms, thunderstorms associated with gustfronts approaching from the west, unbelievable rainbows, torrential coastal rains, strong winds, a potential tornado in La Perousse... what else? What an amazing winter it has been with insane and extremely exciting conditions apparent across much of Eastern NSW!!!!

Alongside all of this fascinating weather phenomena, temperatures have been well above average over the last week in NSW and that trend in conditions is expected to continue over the next few weeks... as September approaches and Springs is brought into full swing.

With regards to the latest analysis... a W- SW change is progged to arrive in Sydney this evening ... with increased cloud cover and the chance of a brief shower or two tomorrow morning. The front responsible for the change progressively moving across SE Australia is anchoring out of a 940 hPa Antarctic low. As the change moves into NE NSW during tomorrow, the chance of showers should significantly decrease for Eastern NSW during tomorrow afternoon... but snow showers should persist on the ST's with a dominate SW airstream continuing.

As that high north of the bight advances further east across the continent... we should see stable conditions redevelop across Eastern NSW once again come the weekend and the upcoming new week.

Wednesday is looking increasingly likely for an exceptionally warm one for winter once again... with most models (in particular EC) progging the high mentioned above to progressively move East into the Tasman and direct warm NE winds along the coast and adjacent ranges. Alongside these expected conditions, a strong cold front and associated trough should freshen and strengthen these N winds, assisting in those warm conditions progged for next week.

Current conditions here 17.8/ 6.2, 47% and 1016.3 ... most of Sydney today achieved a maximum temperature of around about 25 to 26 degreees... around 8 above average and the warmest day since early May. Maximum here of a warm 23.2 deg. Unfortunately lack of moisture will prevent storms from developing tonight with that SW change, but indefinately fingers crossed for tomorrow morning due to the potential for brief shower development.

Steve

hoping for some thunder tommorrow with the showers if they happen.Today was a buitiful day 24c here with some high cloud.I played golf all day as did many other people.

24c is such a good temp not to hot and definatly not cold.just right if its not humid

well wat a shocker, 25c tops across most of sydney. If these heat wave trends continue through spring and summer forget about storms. I mean yes that will mean plenty of heating, but no instability and no moisture really doesnt kick anything off. great effort for this winter, i just wont get excited about spring and summer atm due mostly to the fact that these heat-wave set-ups that we get week after week kills off any moisture and leaves us with ef all.

Outlook is a worrying sign atm with another heat-wave progged for late next week. Hopefully we can stay away from the record max temp but going by recent trends, records will topple.

Nice and warm down here today with a maximum of 26C after a low of 5C. It was our warmest day since April the 19th,so its nice to feel a little warmth again. We had light winds during the morning,but these strengthened dramatically after lunch starting from the north and gradually tending to the west. Moisture was low with RH getting down to 14%.The fire danger was very high today as a result of the warm temps,low humidity,and high winds. So its nice to feel the warmth again, but the signs are abit worrying. In a months time we'll be seeing temps well into the 30's from a system like this .