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#1103681 - 11/05/2012 09:33 May 2012 rainfall, etc.
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 1846
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
So far, the month has been sunny, with little cloud and low humidity.
Rainfall of only 6 mm to date suggests that, like eleven Mays in the last thirteen, the total will be below average (40 mm).

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#1103727 - 11/05/2012 12:58 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Surly Bond]
Southerly_Buster Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 3363
Loc: Southern Sydney
As has been stated on the other threads, Observatory Hill is currently rainless for the month and the prospects don't look too good over the next couple of weeks. Having a rainless May would be quite a kick in the guts after the summer/early autumn we've just had.

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#1103754 - 11/05/2012 15:24 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Southerly_Buster]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 1070
Loc: Dunolly..VIC .. Nth central
Here is the rain forecast for OZ in the next 8 days
May..11th to `18th
Looking mostly DRY across the Australian continent for this coming week

Note: this picture is hot linked and may change or update

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#1103785 - 11/05/2012 19:31 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: crikey]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2112
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
3.4mm MTD here so far, about 1.4mm of that has been melting frost.
Here is map of NSW worth watching... MTD Rain
I fully expect a very dry May with current models.
Would be happy with another winter like 2008 which also had a very dry May.

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#1104020 - 13/05/2012 18:01 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: GrizzlyBear]
LQQKN Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/08/2007
Posts: 1433
Loc: , tweed coast
Have had a very dry start to may tho could get onshore flow later in the week

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#1104083 - 14/05/2012 09:36 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: LQQKN]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 12715
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
almost halfway through the month and 0mm.
_________________________
lexDyscis luRe!!
Scientific knowledge is always tentative and subject to revision. The entire history of science is littered with discarded theories once thought to be incontrovertible truths. Prof David Deming

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#1104105 - 14/05/2012 12:57 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: SBT]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 1846
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
May rainfall here is likely to be 25 mm below normal.
But the spring and summer months, on the average, were more than 30 mm above normal.

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#1104140 - 14/05/2012 16:23 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Surly Bond]
Kowree. Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/03/2012
Posts: 11
Loc: West Wimmera, Victoria
Yep, the rainfall in this neck of the woods has been very scant since last September. This is in the Wimmera region of Victoria. Had only 88mm September to end of December, and have only had 75mm so far this year. Hmm, it starts to get worrying - feeding sheep is constant.
It is a pathetic sight to see us being excited if we get 4mm of rain!
Thank goodness for the fogs.

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#1104789 - 19/05/2012 12:04 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Kowree.]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 1846
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
The month is tending to very low daily minimums, very wide daily temperature ranges, and extremely low Dew Points.
Rainfall is low, but already well over the 0.2 mm total of May 2006.

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#1104876 - 20/05/2012 08:19 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Surly Bond]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2112
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Surly, its pretty definite now that you will get a huge boost to this month rain latter next week. What is your wettest May?

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#1104889 - 20/05/2012 09:25 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 1846
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Peter, Manilla's wettest May was May 1983, which had 173 mm.
A boost of 162 mm to this month's rain would beat it.
Only 40% of May months have a rainfall above the average, which is 40.3 mm.

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#1104929 - 20/05/2012 14:27 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Surly Bond]
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6480
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Pretty dry here so far for May. April was on the dry side of normal as well. Pretty much back to the status quo I guess as autumn/winter is showing a genuine drying trend down here in the SE.

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#1104936 - 20/05/2012 16:32 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: ColdsnapIII]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 8044
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
We're currently on our 17th day since it last rained here. There is the chance of a shower over the next couple of days, but in all likelihood, it will probably stay dry until Thursday/Friday.

So far this month, the minimums are averaging 14.3ºC (Norm: 14.2) and maximums averaging 23.0ºC (Norm: 21.4)
_________________________
South West Rocks (30.89ºS 153.04ºE, 5m ASL), Mid North Coast:
May 2013 Rainfall: 293.6mm (May Avg. 132.5mm)
May 2013 Raindays: 9 (May Avg. 11.3 raindays)
Year to date Rainfall: 1326.4mm (Jan-May Avg. 806.6mm) (Yearly Avg. 1490.4mm)
Year to date Raindays: 71 (Jan-May Avg. 67.1 raindays)

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#1105884 - 25/05/2012 09:41 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Seabreeze]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 1846
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
The forecast State-wide deluge is almost over, adding 6.2 mm, for a monthly total so far of 12.6 mm. That is below the May median of 27 mm, let alone the mean of 40.3 mm.
It is going to be a cold day, but probably one or two degrees warmer than my 13-year record low for May of 11.1 degrees, set 30/5/11.

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#1105908 - 25/05/2012 10:30 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 1846
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Drat!
It is one of those days when the diurnal temperature cycle fails.
At 10:30, the temperature is 1.3 degrees lower than at 09:00. It is likely that the 09:00 re-set reading (10.9) will be the highest temperature in the 24-hour day.

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#1106407 - 27/05/2012 16:55 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Surly Bond]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2112
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
How much rain did this event give you Surly?.
My month total is now up to 63mm, but that is still below normal despite such a decent rainfall of 55mm.
Temp mean anomaly will be slightly negative for the month, but not a by a lot, only a few 10th.

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#1106427 - 27/05/2012 18:14 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 1846
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Peter, not as much as 8 mm in that heralded event.

The total this month may not make it to the secondary mode of 16 to 20 mm on the histogram above.
Not that that secondary mode is likely to persist with future data. I think that the Weibull curve is a better predictor than the past observations that make up the columns of the histogram.
Provided that the histogram classes ( bins ) are all the same width (here 5 mm) the lowest class is the best predictor for May rainfall in Manilla. You can bet on it, provided that the bet is carefully stated.
Taking the actual record, the class 0-5 mm contains 13 observations, while the class 40-45 mm, which includes the mean (40.3 mm), contains only 4 observations - less than one third the number.
It would be a bit risky to bet that next May's rainfall would be 0 mm. Only two May months have registered 0 mm (including a 0.2 mm). The most frequent millimetre reading was 5 mm (five times), then four readings each of 18 mm and 22 mm.


Edited by Surly Bond (27/05/2012 18:16)

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#1106937 - 31/05/2012 08:56 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: Surly Bond]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 12715
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
12mm since midnight has tipped my May rainfall total to 57mm.

Brings my annual total to 1291mm (Tsv average 1047mm)
_________________________
lexDyscis luRe!!
Scientific knowledge is always tentative and subject to revision. The entire history of science is littered with discarded theories once thought to be incontrovertible truths. Prof David Deming

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#1106973 - 31/05/2012 13:39 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: SBT]
DaveM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 4695
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
May for Bathurst has seen what may be a record min avge for the month.

Usual overnight for May is +3.3 we have had actual average 4 degrees lower at minus 0.7.

Daytime has been almost average at 16.3 instead of LT avge of 16.1.

Rainfall actual 47 vs avge about 41, pretty much all that rain was 1 single rain event of about 1.5 days. Ask anyone if it rained much in May and most people would say it was very dry.

25 nights below 2 dergees, most of those below zero. We had a run of 12 nights in a row below zero.

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#1107012 - 31/05/2012 19:43 Re: May 2012 rainfall, etc. [Re: DaveM]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2112
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Up here, rainfall only 3mm below normal so pretty close. Mean temps -0.6 below normal, so a little on the cool side. Both max/min quite close to normal. In fact my average min came in right on normal, but max temp was -0.3 below. The true mean got pushed down below the mid point of max/min thanks to the excess of dry weather.

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