DaveM my normal May means are 1.9 min to 12.3 max with a mean of 6.6.
Currently the means up to now are 2.2 to 12.5, however the true mean is 6.5. Today though is still incomplete and so the mean is still skewed on the low side because there are no afternoon readings. Should be 6.6 by latter today.
But if you look at just min/max my means are both slightly above normal by +0.3deg on min and +0.2 on max (which may also end up +0.3 by this afternoon)

Bathurst means are skewed on the low side because we have hardly had any rain and its been mainly dry and sunny and also we are getting into long nights now and Bathurst is in a valley where the cold air sinks. The dry weather helps Bathurst mean to be lower in drier weather in winter because of its valley location. Even my means may be slightly skewed lower by the dry weather because my max min are above normal but the mean is normal but here the effect is very slight.

You need not worry about August I am very confident of a cold one this year. I think this winter will be skewed to a latter one rather than early, although it still may come to a grinding halt in mid September.

Yeah, I'm not feeling sceptical at all really, just not seeing anything yet.

It is a concern though that there have been virtually no fronts of note for May, not even rain events. Sydney is in for its driest May in a very long time and the last time I had a May this dry, it was a poor ski season down south. In 1999 it was like this and the fronts rarely got going for the whole winter.

Its always fun watching things develop though.

The dry weather is a bit of a concern - no precipitation = no snow. In the past two months we've had a total of 24mm, and unless the fronts start moving farther north with a few NW cloudbands joining in, I don't see that changing.

Do not forget how dry May 2008 was, Sydney 3mm, Katoomba 9mm, in my area 12mm...
http://www.weather.liway.com/S0508.txt
And despite some cold weather it was actually noticeably warmer than this year, anomaly was +0.8.
Other than that quite similar warmest days 17.6 about the same time as this year, coldest day 4.2 this year so far 4.7.

I do not think that NW cloud bands are of great help for the snow quality or the cold, a slightly dryish winter is actually better for cold and quality snow.

00z GFS today still on track for a moderate cold change latter next week and does include some rain and snow. We do not know what sort of cold change this will be, could be only slightly moderate and just run of the mill for this time of year or could still be strong, but I still think there will be a change in the second half of next week.

...on the otherhand we have had about half our May average thus far (both town and airport) so the winter is off to good start on this side. There's a bit of a cold anomaly in sst well to our southwest - something I cant say I've noticed in the few years I've been watching.

EC looks very good to me this evening... GFS also simmering along the same lines.. Something is brewing next week

Wow!, not wrong Johnno, what ever happens there will be cold change in the second half of next week no doubt about that at all. Just a question of how good, current EC would be definitely bring snow to the CT's above 1000m next week Friday.

Rekkon the cold pool might get pushed further east as models get closer to event. Ecmwf has it blowing out in the bight initially last look. These charts with such a big pool over a huge area look a bit funny tho - bit hard to actually believe.

Hopefully we get some snow this season.
It has been 22 years since I have seen any snow. Having just moved to Leura I will be watching this thread and everyone's input.

Cheers
Mick
@aussielunix

I'm getting excited.
I've gotta make a trip to Kalkite to clean windows and get bed linen dry cleaned at the lodge for the upcoming season.
I'm flexible about my travel times so I might aim for late next week.
I'll certainly be keeping an eye on this thread as well.
I'm prepared for it being a bust as well, so I'll play it by ear.

Homer

Its interesting that the earliest indications of something were already 2 days ago So far both EC and GFS have been keeping that window of opportunity open at every model run. Of course its a very unclear picture this far out, but still quite remarkable for there to be signs of a common event at this time scale. Just hope we do not scare it off like an approaching prey by exposing it too early, but off course that is silly, what ever happens will happen.

06z GFS is interesting in that it draws a lot more moisture ahead of the change and would give us a pretty good drink ahead of "a" cold change. But by 06z GFS is would be more drink than cold change so Homer do not pack the skis too early. Either way we have an event next week involving rain and/or snow, just not sure what it is yet. At least Laurier would be happy with some rain, I would be too since I need some water in my tank. However I am not that desperate for water yet so would still prefer just nice cold snow at the expense of rain.

I tend to spend more time on the upper charts on the extended models as it gives an indication of potency and strength of any potential changes via the 'engine room'. There's not much happening in that regard at the moment, just fragmented upper waves of coldish air. MSLP charts vary wildly beyond about six or seven days, so whilst they widen my eyes, I always head straight to the upper charts to look at their source.

The LWT is okay (not very strong or stable) in about a weeks time but it seems to also support the fragmented upper systems scenario.

It would be nice just to have a rainy change come through with more than 2mm as its quite dry and dusty here in places.

We can get surprise blobs of cold upper air that create a nice little system in fairly short notice, so I am keeping an eye out for them.

That's just my take at the moment. Always interested in the thoughts of others.

SAM is well negative, forecast to dip a little bit lower in the next few days as well. Things appear to be lining up, with the positioning and strength of the trailing high favourable for a cold outbreak. I doubt the high will strengthen a ridge out as there is quite a broad inland trough progged to form in Eastern WA around the 20th (going off GFS). AXS has the trough deepening and forming a low however this is not supported by the other models and seems an unlikely outcome. If it was summer then maybe haha. Id expect the next run to be more inline with GFS and EC.

Polar charts looking good around the 23rd as well, LWT appears to amplify with a weak 5 node setup, nothing exceptional but better than flat as a tack. I think this one ticks quite a few boxes atm but those boxes could easily be unticked over the course of the next 7 days. My general feeling is that at the very least we will see some rain, hopefully its of the white rather than clear variety.

I cant offer any analysis. Only note that last night’s ecmwf run seems to have something peaking more in our direction in the west whilst gfs not and bom somewhere closer to ec. I’ve got evrything crossed at the moment. I use reverse psychology and I’m usually wrong - that’s why I insist whatever develops will strike in the east - sorry guys!

I'm hopeful (not necessarily confident) about this system around 25th and thereabouts. Be interesting to see if it becomes a cutoff or stays connected to the southern air. A few resorts will be watching it too hoping for some natural snow to go down before season opening.

I feel confident enough to start a topic on this, I am just unsure if we should put the topic in the NSW thread or the Alipne thread group?, seeing that this affects large parts of NSW by rain, snow, wind from 23 to 27 May. A thread should be started today so we can discuss there, feel free to start one. DaveM the 25th is about spot on the middle of the range of this event.
For me it has certainly ticked enough boxes, Johnno I really cannot see how most of these boxes could get unticked again, large scale weather patterns just cannot do backflips. Blizz I agree with you that looking at upper charts is the guiding key to long range forecasts and stronger fronts, however all the models variables fit together, you change one and the effect escalates through to all the others. For me its the 500mb pattern that is the real guiding key, but true the 200-300mb pattern helps guide the 500mb too. Btw look at the 300mb wind in the Bight for next week, straight up from the south.

Most of us here in this topic are NSW - Pretty sure the Vics would have their own topic. Maybe NSW or here doesn't matter I guess we will contribute wherever it is.

I think AXS on 25th looks downright wierd by the way - I can't accept that high ridge that it has. It's SO different to EC & GFS and I can't see how that mechanism would come about.

The WZ Access after Monday really looks silly I agree would not trust that with a 10ft pole.
However BOM go only up to Monday and still look ok up to there..., maybe because they know its just not reliable beyond 5-6 days.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
I still do not trust Access and would only make a forecast based on EC and GFS combined.
Will start a thread this evening if no one else has, may as well wait for 00z models to get a clearer picture.

No worries PD, I tend to view 500hPa and above as the upper charts and 700hPa as the mid level charts. I look for loops and pools of cold air at the 500hPa level, then also the 300hPa winds etc, as you say. If the pool of cold air is smallish or well separated from the main body of colder air down south, I tend to view it more carefully as this setup is open to much variability. That when the mslp charts are less important to me.

I'm not sure how big/detailed the Grib files are that Weatherzone processes for EC (for all the model variables they put into graphical form) as EC is 'coarser' re wind profiles and grid points? Laurier mentioned this the other day. For this reason I don't get too excited over EC unless its much closer to the event.

I use GFS and ACCESSR mostly and EC when its within 48 to 72 hours.

That's just my method, ATM.

00z GFS still sticks to the low & cold air peaking in the Bight with alot of tropical moisture getting sucked into the system from the North through the Eastern states and Victoria