Well the models are now consistent enough for me to say that we will get some kind of rain event towards this week. nsw looks like it will get smashed, hit and miss if record snow will fall on the central tablelands to the guyra area.

But it looks great for a variety of reasons, with different weather types that will affect a large area this week.

Was wondering when someone was going to start up a thread for this event. I have been watching EC and the Access models, It does look like its going to effect most of the East Coast for thursday and friday. I'm expecting something like 100mm+ for SEQ. Also I think it will turn into an ECL by Saturday and move it's way to NZ. Anyway I'm happy something is going to happen it's been pretty boring latly.

I can't see anything to suggest totals will be anywhere near that high. I think widespread 15-30mm totals would be more realistic.

What makes you think less than 30mm? Bom reckon 5-10 on thurs 20-40 on friday and they've been under the mark alot last time we had rain. Plus pulling moisture from the Northern parts of the Coral Sea.

Bearing in mind though that the peak rainfall from these systems (when the surface low is south of the border) is often through southern inland QLD as opposed to SE QLD? The upper and surface systems are well aligned through these areas and the rainfall is more persistent over any one area. By the time the rain starts moving towards the coast though the S-SW change associated with the deepening surface feature is starting to accelerate and literally blasts through eastern SE QLD - inland areas might have 12-18 hours of rain while we might have 6 or less. Unless the rain is very intense it's hard for significant totals to build in the shorter time period. We'll see how the forecasts go during the week I guess but sadly I think this is a fairly common scenario for coastal SE QLD.

I agree 100% with you Ben, Im not to sure where you got 100mm+ EL Stev o.

We might get 100mm here tho I lazy 100mm of rain is quite commen on the gold an tweed coast. Dont know why everyone is so negeive all the time about everything on here then it comes off an yous will be proven wrong might get a great storm on friday with 50mm dowmpour

yeah i can't see anything over 50mm in the brisbane city area. Though i believe it will be very heavy rain just before the clearence goes through. It's been years since i have seen this type of typical winter front systems go through se qld. I remember that they were regular during winter, the rain was intense and then there was a very sharp clearence, and after that the temp dropped dramatically.

This is a good sign for snow this year to

I don't think anyone is really being negative at this point LQQKN - it's fair to point out that the 'type' of system that's current ly forecast is historically just not a big totals producer for eastern SE QLD. There are always exceptions so maybe the rain band will slow down over SE QLD or the rain will be very intense... maybe the forecasts will change the system completely during the week to one that's more favourable for us. Optimism is fine and so is reasoned realism.

what would be the odds for say a little bit of sleet or snow on the back of this system after it passes through?

chris,
Not much chance as the magic 540 line ( the blue one ) degrades with each model. Though at one stage it looked like guyra was going to get 20cm. But i don't expect anything now. Others ?

Yeah looking good for 20-30mm through Brisbane maybe more handy fall after a dry month.

Great news with this system though is almost everyone gets a drink and more important is that farmers out west are looking good for easy 30-50mm which crops and sowing will really welcome so that is great news to.

Also NSW and VIC look to get a drink so a nice country sized system were everyone scores which is great news.

Expect about 30mm here and expect some 50-70mm falls further west

Good luck all nice to see some weather about after last few weeks.

Cool I love the farmers!! Looking at the sat images can I see that kick from the Antartic as the models agree on near the bite should get the start of that cold front/low pressure system. Though I keep seeing Low pressure coming in from the NW of QLD then within 6 hours its south of the border it's all over the place??

You could be forgiven for thinking there would be a storm today if u only looked at the sky and if it was November.
Sky looks quite unstable and some beefy convection out there and few heavy showers developing south of the city looks nice and 23/15 in May not bad same no trigger about but should be few heavy showers about this avro.

Looking quite wet Friday

Man, it really hasn't had a chance to warm up. I went for a ride to uni before and it was nice and pleasant in the sun, but now sitting at home with this cloud cover its a bit chilly!

I am mildly interested in the chances of storms out west tomorrow. Forecast CAPE is very low (0-300 J/kg) but wind shear will be reasonably strong ahead of/along the cold front.

I might as well add, the low-level jet really starts to crank during the afternoon/evening tomorrow in reponse to the approaching upper-level trough. I would love to see that happen with some more meaningful CAPE.

Yeah if had some deep surface moisture would be huge storms out there tomorrow the shear both speed and direction is pretty sweet such a shame.

Looks like lots of rain in land which is great hoping darling downs and others that missed out in summer get a good dump and allows all crops to be sowed and a good drink

Looking nice and wet and should be a huge rain band this time tomorrow covering much of QLD.

Expecting 30-40mm here

expecting between 40-80mm for me for this event once this clears out of saturday morning things should cool down with a few days of frost for inland areas

Yes, perfect timing for the farmers! With some good sub soil present, most farmers will be planting their winter crop on the back of 20-30mm of rain. Fingers crossed