I have seen a reference to Mount Victoria scoring a -9C somewhere. I thought it may have been in that fantastic radio broadcast of the big NSW snow event from 1965, i had a listen again and it says 22degrees fahrenheit ( -5.5C) at Mount Victoria at mid-day. Not quite -9C but a damn fine effort for the middle of the day!
I will have to keep looking. I cant remember where it was that i saw it.
Does anyone think that we might stand a chance of low-snow down this way, or is it a NSW event only?
Cheers

Not sure about the 22F, maybe Laurier can help with that, but it still sounds a bit too low, maybe someone mixed up wind-chill somewhere.
Victoria will get some snow too, but not low level, just no cold air coming up from the south. The cold pool is cut of by the time it gets here.



Love the sat pic link, I did not not know about that one, have book marked it.
Yes the cold air in the Bight looks great, but unfortunately that is where it will stay. Apart from that little ripple that you can see pulling away below the WA border that will become the cold pool.

This is certainly a rain event as noted by WZ news...
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/heavy-rain-looms-for-eastern-australia/21672

Interesting that we have suspected this for week now and models have held on the rain, there have been only a couple of minor downgrades in that time but never looked like going away.

Snow will be quite minimal even in the Snowies, there is a lot of warm air wrapping around the low from the south before the airmass cools again, so its not looking good for any useful snowfall to help start the ski season at all. Cold pool still tracking to cross probably between the ACT and the CT's, but unlikely to form a proper ECL by current models.

The theme of the thread being wind and rain has held quite well there will be strong winds and rain, just the snow part will be minimal. I always have high hopes for a snowfall when opportunities arise, but this is not one of them. Still possible for some wet flakes on higher CT's early Saturday, Snowies will certainly get some light wettish snow but that is the extent of it.

The ssec link is a good one, though I also like Ben Quinn's larger and more detailed charts [here]. They also have the advantage that they go just a few degrees of latitude farther south which can be quite an advantage in situations like this. The visible pix on the site, especially the regional ones like the Great Australian Bight, are the highest resolution available unless you pay $$$$s and can be mind-blowing when there's a whopper cold airmass moving through.

I think PD's nailed the situation. The trough in the westerlies to watch is now under WA, and its cloud formations correspond well to the 700hPa moisture charts on GFS and ACCESS. The other area to watch tomorrow will be eastern QLD to see the moisture moving inland from the coast and the development of the trough up there. Even the Bureau has refused to be drawn on where an inland low might form, with its notes saying "The positioning of this system is currently uncertain, but it is expected to bring rain to most districts as it moves east during Thursday and Friday, with the majority of the rainfall expected from the slopes and plains, through to the coast."

This is understandable given that there's still considerable divergence between the models as to trajectory and timing of the 500hPa low that will tow the surface low with it. Up to 10am Thursday this is pretty clear cut, with EC, GFS and ACCESS all placing it close to Adelaide. After that GFS and EC move it slowly SE along the NSW/VIC border, with GFS taking two days to reach Gabo Island but EC only 1.5 days. ACCESS takes a more northerly route, and a slower one, crossing the NSW Mid North Coast early Sunday morning, or 2.75 days after leaving the Adelaide area. The slower movement would allow more time to develop low pressure in the inland, and increase the duration of the rainfall.

While we've been looking at the cold tongue at 850 pushing into SA, reaching a maximum on Thursday morning, what is really remarkable is the tongue of warm air at 850 pushing well SE to the south of the Bight. This brings temperatures as high as 8 to 10C down to beyond 50S, so it is no wonder that the cut-off is starved of cold southern air. 8-10 at 850 = about 16-18 at the surface, so Macquarie Island will be breaking out the deck chairs, sunscreen and shades.

After seeing last nights 06z and this mornings 12z, I am actually inclined to tip the scales towards a forecast with snow even for the CT's. Maybe Homer was right to go with the heart.

The numbers in the models have improved just a little and the path of the cold pool is becoming clearer. The cold pool reaches its northern most point near Lake Eyre with 500mb temps of just under -30 which is decent for there. Then it tracks SE towards mid way between the CT's and Snowies while it warms because it is cut off. However still manages 500mb a little below -25 and 850's just bordering on zero both here and in the Snowies.

As a result of the more SE path than East path across NSW the rain starts sooner on Thursday, but also there seems to be enough solid precipitation late Friday night after the main prefrontal rain band clears when the cold pool is at its coldest here and in the Snowies in the strong SW winds. This would give the Snowies a reasonable snow cover by Saturday morning although the air after the cold pool is a worry and a bit too warm before it cools again, a result of that warm air down south that Laurier speaks of.

However I am inclined to include a light wet cover of snow in the early hours of Saturday for high parts of the CT's before the cold pool moves away.

PS, Also 72h EC which is always a pretty unchangable forecast for the 500mb pattern has geopotential just under 5520m covering the CT's which is the normally my boundary for snow here, also shows just under zero 850's. So that pass's for minimal basic snow.

At least there is some moisture PD - who knows, the cold pool may hold together better than forecast.
So many times we have seen scant moisture with cold changes in winter on the CTs amounting to a few mm of rain (or cms of snow) out your way & a few spits & spats this far east. Temps below 1200m are still far too mild for sleet or snow (at the moment) anyway.

Yes, aslaws the moisture does look better this morning especially after the wind swings to the SW. At first I it looked like we would only get moisture from the North ahead of the cold pool, but there seems to be a strong enough redevelopment when the cold pool moves south of of the CT's belting in some decently cold and moist SW winds while the temps are at the lowest. This should happen late Friday night into Saturday morning which is good timing also.
Must say Blizz was also right to wait until much closer to the event before having an opinion on snow here.

I am still surprised at the max temps forecast over the next few days PD. Under grey skies and rain at this elevation in late May I would be surprised if we reached the maximums forecast on the OCF. Might be some breaks in the cloud & rain that pushes the temps up but not sure we will have such mild temps if the rain is present throughout daylight hours.
I think you take the same approach as Blizz does deep down PD. Don't curb your enthusiasm about these fronts. The thread would have been empty over the last few days if it wasn't for contributions like yours.

Exactly aslaws, PD and I have a similar approach to all of this. That's what the forums are here for, to express our enthusiasm over potential weather events, as we feel inclined.

I combine what the models are telling me with the experience of what events like this can typically bring, beyond the resolution of the models. Both are just as important. Local effects at times can be somewhat different to the models with colder and broader than expected upper cold pools, isolated areas of better convection, lower 850hPa temps, better 700hPa RH etc.

That's why these events are fascinating for me. Its like the models draw the outline of a picture and then on Game Day it gets filled in with the colours.

We can watch those colours as they fill in via the sat loop, radar and surface and sonde obs and then interpret what that means for our area.

00z tonight is the optimal time for me to get a consolidated idea of likely outcomes.

Nice description Blizz - I like that analogy.

That 5400 (and for a time 5360) thickness is tantalisingly close to this area as with the 850's etc. As PD said if it just stays colder long enough and crosses the right spot and surprisingly the models say there IS moisture to follow in the cold air (also mentioned above) that we don't normally get of late.

Is this our turn to get a nice little snowfall on the highest bits of the CT's - hope so.

Even so rain will be welcome here. Which is all Bx will get anyhow.

Bathurst is now averaging -1.2 for May which is about 4.5 degrees BELOW average. Depending on the next few nights temps - we may set a new min record for May - I believe we are currently running COLDER than the record so far.

We don't get Ron's extremes but boy we've been consistent with -3 this month. 15 mornings below zero this month, i morning on average (3.3), only 1 morning above (6.6)

18z GFS certainly holding that window of opportunity on which a forecast of wettish snow above 1200m for CT's could be made.
Will be a great few days of weather, wind heavy rain and probably a few windy wet flakes as well.
PS, believe it or not but I also had quite a solid frost this morning despite the temp only a tropical near +3, grass was still all thick and white including the car.

What I find quite amazing looking at the sat pic links above - the speckled cloud (very cold areas) reach pretty much to 30 degrees S in the Bight.

That is a LONG way north - like Narrabri/Moree north. Pity it never seems to hold that far north over land in the eastern states.

PD - a little bit colder and you have the blizzard conditions you often miss and hope for.

Sorry wrong topic - oops

I'm loving the look of the sat pics this morning.
That cold air pushing in behind the cloud in the bight and that moisture starting to push down from Northern Australia and Indonesia.
This system is ripe for plentiful amounts of rain over almost the whole state.
Latest GFS still holding the heaviest rain to the west of Bathurst. Over 100 mm's predicted!
Certainly an exciting system to watch develop now in real time.

Homer

Heavy rain would rate with me. This sure is an interesting set-up, with that high camped out at the south west. As you'd expect, today is gorgeous... gentle air, blazing sun, no hint of anything coming. Tomorrow should start out like this too, but we should see it developing through the day. The rain/moisture forecast seems to be firming at least. I'll be out tonight plundering the woodpile and laying in a supply under the house.

"Plundering the wood pile" - yeah nice turn of phrase. Agree, looking out and stepping out now - it's stunning outside - almost HOT in the sun No way you'd think that 1 or 2 inches of rain is coming soon. But come it will.

I don't believe the 22F figure for midday at Mount Victoria given in that news broadcast for 18 July 1965. Mt Victoria's official minimum to 9am that day was -2.2 and to 9am on the 19th was -1.0. Mt Vic normally reported at 9am and 3pm but unfortunately (probably because of the turmoil caused by the snow) only reported at 9am on the 18th. That report was a temp and wet bulb of 0.0, wind ESE 17km/h, continuous heavy snow with visibility 1km. The 22F (-5.55C) figure is given in Bureau's 1956 publication Climatic Averages Australia which I mentioned earlier, as Mt Victoria's lowest temperature on record, so maybe there was some confusion with this. Given the saturated air and fairly strong winds, I don't think a -5.5 figure is possible for Mt Vic on 18 July 1965.

My own records give the coldest temperature recorded at Mt Victoria since computerised records began on 1/1/1962 as -6.3 on 26 July 1986 which is what the Bureau also says [here].

Yep. I have been looking at the synoptic pictures, I like those as you can see where the fronts, troughs and air is moving from (the satellite cloud pic overlaid with the current chart is my all-time favourite though). And the moisture is definitely firming.

We're set to get 17c tommorrow before The Monster arrives. I am a tad puzzled about the forecasts of high wind as the egg-rings are quite spaced on the map, not bunched together, but regardless will also be packing my Stegbar windows on the western side with rags (they leak like seives).

Crackenback now getting gusts over 100km/h. Always a highlight to watch that aws when the systems approach.
Brings back memories of the days going up Karels T where you could pretend you were in Antarctica surrounded by cloud, gales, ice and snow. And you knew that more snow would be falling soon.