Hello everybody!

Thought I'd set up a thread for the next event... the first for Winter 2012!

According to the latest synoptic pattern it looks like a low pressure trough will develop over NSW/ACT and Queensland and then extend south towards Victoria this weekend and into next week, with a cold front brushing by at the same time. A northerly airflow will descend from the Outback over the next couple of days, bringing some very nice conditions across the State - morning fog and frost, mild sunny days to follow (18C and 17C for Melbourne tomorrow and Friday, 20C for Mildura on both days)... enjoy it while you can!

On Saturday the cold front will push through, bringing a colder southwest change, particularly to the southern and eastern regions, snow for the alpine regions from Sunday onwards. Not sure how the trough up north will affect us, there were early indications of some more heavy rain heading our way, but that doesn’t seem as likely now but I’ll leave that for the experts. Hopefully we’ll get some coldies in the southwest/southerly/southeast airstreams following the front, maybe more hail and thunder?

Cheers everybody (my trip to Fiji is off due to study commitments, hopefully I’ll be able to head to Fiji this coming Christmas)

Andrew (Aussiestormfreak)

Great work Andrew ,

Shame about no Fiji .... More long distance phone calls for you ay !

Am pretty wound up about this coming system . For me it will define how the rest of winter will shape up . The ECL's seem to be a month late this year . Probably similar to 2007 . But like last year this drier Autumn has really had lower temperatures quite early . So here's hoping that the Sam and IOD kick in and give some of our Friends a Chop out ....

Could be good steady totals from this . Hopefully more to come .

thanks SO, yeah a real shame but assuming I can head to Fiji in November/December/January, maybe I'll be able to catch some nice tropical thunderstorms, that would be a real treat, but not as much as spending Christmas and New Year with my fiancee and her family

In the meantime, hopefully this system will dump some more good snow in the High Country, and give Melbourne's water catchments a helping hand

I'm watching this one like a hawk. Significant chance of flooding rain into Gippsland ontop of a minor flood on the Latrobe R currently making its way from Rosedale to Sale.

Born via an Easterly dip, this potential system forms a LLC and descends to SE NSW (Gippslands flooding scenario) - but moves back up northwards before the wrap around can makes its impact into Gippy by the current runs.

A CMC prog.....


I reckon this one will deliver for SE Vic.

I am personally going for the GFS model tonight which gives a little more rain for inland Vic. Access gives us nothing.
Oh and Congratulations SO! For a few weeks ago, I hope your not getting too many sleepless nights.

Not looking good at all for any chances of rain for Vic loooking at this mornings models. Looks like it will be a new south wales event.

06z gfs today run giving gippslanders a really good drink. Pretty much in the black hole of zilch rain here. Anyway still an interesting watch. Would still love some rain just to keep putting water in the tank.

Don't know about your rain TU . ?

Might have to wait untill after the Long W/E . Which at the moment looks Dry , clear and cold .

Today who have to be up there with one of the most Mild starts to winter . Except for that early morning chill .!

BTW , i only just realised that Fergus , is propbably named after a Character from the ABC ....... I'm a bit slow on the uptake , thought it might have been a connection to him being as Fast as the old " Fergus " tractors .....

could i please have an explanation of the purple and blue bold lines in the map in petros post for CMC 4 june - i feel dumb! dvc

DVC, the blue bold line is a cold air boundary (Not sure how cold exactly though). The purple line is snow at sea level. Bring that purple line up here!!

Excellent thanks T now i can keep me eye out! Just got a light shower here @ q after a great clear day. dvc

That purple line usually nicks Tasmania in the middle of winter.

Is there any record of it actually making it further than Tas?

Probably, when it snowed in Melbourne, haven't seen the models long enough to see it anywhere else.

Pretty constant wind and light/moderate rain here at the moment. Back end of the low by the looks of it.

This mornings ACCESS run raises eyebrows. A more significant event for much of southern and mountain Victoria than most have forecast. Separate low spawns and retrogrades Monday afternoon, delivering some very good falls.

I am constantly amazed at how the belt of high pressure has stayed at low latitudes this year allowing either no high cells or these constant troughs across the continent.

My jurassic high school geography textbooks always had the autumn winter high belt across the land!

DVC

That's an interesting point DVC. You've got me wanting to dust off my old text books (AND I mean antiquated ) and check this out too.

5.5mm from rain that started early this morning here in Sale. BoM have really jumped on board this in the last 24 hours - ACCESS were progging this exact set up last Tuesday night! WATL now have 50-100mm over most of Gippsland east of the Latrobe Valley - this will put some strain on the rivers, particularly the Latrobe which reached moderate levels last week.

In the box seat here in Sale for the deepening low off the S NSW coast - relentless rain and gusty easterlies will keep things miserable til Tuesday. Looking forward to it!

Yep, ACCESSR has really ramped up the totals...