I was contemplating not bothering to post this since the chances currently look so marginal but thought what the heck, it's an interesting scenario anyway Looks like we're still on track for a very slight chance of light snow or sleet showers on the highest mountains near or south of the border late Tue/early Wed as the cold SW'ly flow kicks in.

However I'm not holding my breath just yet because the layer of cold air near the surface looks fairly shallow under a bit of a low level inversion with somewhat mild dry air above. This is also reflected by the marginal thickness values forecast for the region (today's runs of ACCESS-G currently only has ~5430 reaching the border & GFS doesn't seem interested). It does moisten up a bit more later Wed morning but the winds may swing a bit more S'ly/SSE'ly by then. I'd ideally want to see deeper moisture & colder air aloft for better chances of snow. But still early'ish days so there's some room for change.

Below are the EC snowfall (shaded colours) maps for 10pm-1am Tue night & 1am-4am Wed morning respectively. It's still suggesting very isolated & light falls, if any.

The bottom image is my forecast windchill map (in degrees Celsius) generated by GrADS using GFS data for 10am next Tue. As mentioned previously, it's similar but not identical to the Bureau's Apparent Temperature scale. Looking pretty cool!:

I just ran the latest run for the chances of snow have it has contracted further south around the Armidale and Guyra areas. It is still shaping up to be a few cool days ahead for the SEQ and Northern NSW areas.

Cheers

Col.

Last night's 12z run of EC (which is typically a bit more accurate than the 00z runs) is actually a bit more aggressive with the cold air itself and puts a pool of sub-540dm thickness values over southern SE QLD/far NE NSW on Tue night while still going for reasonable moisture at 850 & 700hpa near & south of the border.

That would be nice to have some snow up this way... I/ve never seen it this far up.

The only chance this week of snow in in the guyra area, ( Northern tablelends nsw, not ne nsw or se qld ) if it does get any it will be minimal. Thread in the snow section of the forums

I definitely wouldn't totally rule out the chance of sleet or snow in SE QLD/NE NSW just yet. Both EC & ACCESS-R are still putting a pool of sub-540dm thickness values (a good indicator of a decent depth of cold AND usually moist air, & therefore snow chances) over this region with ACCESS even lowering it below 536. I've personally seen snow on the border ranges of SE QLD in analysed thickness values as high as just above 540 with decent moisture aloft. EC still currently forecasts reasonable moisture to depth (80 to 100% relative humidity at both 5000 & 10,000ft over the northern & central NSW tablelands... & 80 to 100% in an arc spreading across the above areas & the Darling Downs in SE QLD). There's also some modest instability in these areas (a handy proxy is high Tot-Tot values in the mid 50's or above and steep lapse rates). All this is also showing up on forecast soundings for the area.

However one thing that will probably make it hard for snow to reach the ground is the timing of the coldest air i.e. currently due to go through in the early arvo rather than early morning. So unless the timing changes, showers lower the near-surface local temps to below several degrees above 0 at least (snow showers during polar outbreaks have been observed around the world with pre-snow 2m temps as high as several degrees), or the air aloft is colder than currently expected, I think the chances remain borderline but not zero.

Below is the Bureau forecast for the Darling Downs and Granite Belt issued at 10:45am this morning:

Forecast for Tuesday
Isolated showers and drizzle areas, chiefly south of about Dalby. Isolated thunderstorms developing about the Granite Belt in the afternoon. Possible sleet also about the Granite Belt in the afternoon.

Toowoomba: Shower or two, drizzle. Min 06 Max 13

So in a nutshell, I'd say moderate chances of sleet or snow on the higher parts of the central or nothern NSW Tablelands, and much lower chances on the highest parts of the border ranges in SE QLD/NE NSW, perhaps the highest peaks around Girraween National Park or Mt McKenzie near Tenterfield (but not zero).

Forecast snowfall between 10am & 1pm Tue arvo from last night's 12z run of EC. Forecast soundings for those areas flagged for possible snow reveal reasonable moisture & cold air to depth but not ideal:




Forecast sounding from GFS for just south of Stanthorpe for 1pm Tue showing reasonable moisture & cold air to depth. Still only marginal for snow though:

Oops forgot to add to my above post, OCF max temp for Applethorpe for Tue also looks pretty chilly (see below). The EC ensemble is also suggesting snow probabilities up to 60% for Tue on the highest parts of the NSW northern tablelands & southwards. The bottom image is the output from the GFS ensemble - I've entered in Stanthorpe's latitude/longitude. The times on the horizontal axis are in UTC. I've set the threshold to a combination of any precip & 850hpa temp below 2C (the threshold of 0C was too cold to reveal any probabilities) in the 6hrs til the times marked on the horizontal axis:

Today's updated State forecast at 4:10pm is still going for possible sleet around the Granite Belt region.

The EC's snowcast has thrown up the possibility over the last few runs with the 12Z run bringing the cold pool further north and the 00z contracting further south. As Ken Kato said the 12Z being the more reliable of the 2 runs.

NSW BoM have now come into line with the models with their 4:30 update stating:

Tuesday 5 June

Very windy along the southern half of the coast and on the ranges. Rain extending northwards along the coast and ranges to reach the Central Tablelands and Hunter districts by evening. Locally heavy falls are possible closer to the coast and the rain will fall as snow in areas above about 1200 metres. Showers west of the Divide, although tending more isolated on the Plains and westward. Southerly winds extending northwards through much of the state, strong to possibly gale force along the coast and ranges.

now what about 1056m above sea level thats the highest location I can easely climb to if was to see the white stuff. Actualy about every 4 years you hear about reports of light snowfall at springbrook rearly would it gather

Not sure how often you've chased snow around the border ranges near Stanthorpe, Tenterfield, etc but I've personally witnessed snow and sleet on a good number of occasions around the higher parts since the 1990's. Thickness values below around 536 have correlated fairly well to sleet or snow showers around the peaks above about 1000m in Girraween National Park, Mt McKenzie near Tenterfield, etc, both locations being accessible by road. Some of the more notable events include sleet/snow around Stanthorpe in Nov 2006 on the eve of summer after a hot humid day with severe thunderstorms, heavy wet snow around Applethorpe in 2008, heavy settling snow on Mt McKenzie in 2008 as well. This is to name just a few of the many occasions where I've witnessed snow in SE QLD/NE NSW.

Though NSW BOM haven't yet committed to using the 'S' word in the Northern Tablelands forecast. It'll probably be something they throw into the forecast tomorrow night or on Tuesday morning.
Max of 8 degrees forecast in Armidale, and 6 degrees in Guyra on Tuesday, with a few showers.

I would like to experience freezing rain , sleet or snow ... Any of the three ... Would be pretty cool as that is very rare in South East Queensland And I have never really experienced them to my memory...

Matt, don't waste time waiting for it to snow in se qld, hardly ever does. I go to guyra and have seen snow every winter for every time i go there ( look at the models and the 540 line ). I used head off to stanthorpe thinking i would see something, but have learnt if i want a %100 strike rate - go to guyra, eg they have forcast snow there tomorrow, but i will wait for a bigger event.
There is a thread in the snow section for this called guyra snow chances 2012

Takes about 4 hours and the best drive you'll every do

Paulcirrus, out of curiosity, whereabouts around Stanthorpe did you used to snowchase? I've been going up to the highest parts in Girraween National Park just about every winter during cold outbreaks since the early 90's and I've personally witnessed at least light sleet & snow 13 times.

EDIT: Oh & as I mentioned previously, "thickness values below around 536 have correlated fairly well to sleet or snow showers (which I've witnessed) around the peaks above about 1000m in Girraween National Park, Mt McKenzie near Tenterfield, etc, both locations being accessible by road."

Latest EC still has snow/sleet falling around the Granite Belt region.

Just a short summary of some of the snowfalls in QLD. (Even as far North as Mackay)

I still think that Stanthorpe 1984 was one of the more memorable occasions in recent history.

It has fallen on Springbrook on the 12 Aug 2005

Brisbane Snowfalls
July 27 1882 snow recorded in Brisbane
June 27 1927 Snow recorded in Brisbane.
June 27 1932 Snow recorded in Brisbane.
September 21 1958 Snow recorded in Brisbane.
July 4 1984 reports of snow falling on the high rise buildings in the CBD

The Granite Belt around Stanthorpe is the coldest area of Queensland. Stanthorpe had the
State's lowest recorded temperature of-11.0°C on 4 July 1895.

Snowfalls have been recorded on the Granite Belt and the Darling Downs on a number of occasions. In 1896 heavy snowfalls were recorded at Dalveen, Stanthorpe and Toowoomba. In July 1901 snow fell in Warwick,Toowoomba, Charleville, Longreach and Winton. In late August 1929 snowfall in Stanthorpewas regarded as one of the heaviest ever received. The Granite Belt received slight to moderate drifting snow in early June 1949 which was the heaviest in 20 years.
In July 1959 snow and sleet were reported from as far north as Biggenden (west of Maryborough), to Dalby, Crows Nest, Warwick and the Granite Belt, while the McPherson Range on the New South Wales border was snow-capped. In mid July 1965 light snow was reported over a wide area extending from the Clarke Range (west of Mackay), central highlands and northern Warrego to Maranoa and Darling Downs. In the first week of July 1984 snow and sleet fell on the Bunya Mountains, Toowoomba, the Granite Belt and Springbrook- Lamington Plateau.

It is a good 5&1/2 hour drive depending on conditions to get to Guyra. 426 Kms and not all of it is at 100km/h especially when you head through the small towns etc, plus there is roadworks going up Cunningham's Gap that can slow you down a little.

It is a fantastic drive especially when it is snowing.

Was up the gap the other day Coltan.....I think they're nearly done now (thank goodness), wasn't much happening with the roadworks and not much delay, but it could've been just a good day I guess. My Mum and Dad are in their mid 70s and have lived here in the Fassifern Valley their whole lives and they would agree with Ken on the issue of how often snow actually falls on the range and on the granite belt. There have been many occasions even in my memory (I'm 48) when snow has fallen on the great divide here (Cunninghams gap is of course the quickest spot to access) but it's usually pretty pellet-like and rarely settles on the ground.....only occasionally is there a little mushy stuff where it builds up against barriers/buildings.

July 1984 was different and was by my Mum's reckoning the only time in her memory when you could actually see big patches of snow from here at Kalbar, particularly in the Spicers gap area. One patch was even visible for a couple of days. I was living in Brisbane at the time so I missed it but my brother went up to the gap and said the snow was nothing remotely like hail or pellets. Just big fat slowly falling snow flakes, "like New York at Christmas". The 1959 MacPherson Range snowfall is very famous in the Fassifern. Apparently the whole top of Mount Maroon was white and the valley at "The Head" was a winter wonderland with quite deep drifts, but you can't really see much of the McPherson range from here, only from the Boonah side of the valley so my olds don't remember seeing it from here. Not too sure about this event in the next day or two. Based on Coltan's well researched list above, the earliest memorable fall in recent Qld history was on June 27th so to get snow this early in the Winter would be truly exceptional. Keep safe all. Neil

One thing that may be different to this than the "usual" potential sleet/snow event is the potential for deeper convective showers to occur under the cold pool. When this happens, the snow level can actually drop a couple of hundred metres briefly and allow snow at much lower altitudes. A great example of this was the 2007 ECL event off the NSW coast which also led to some heavy snow over NE NSW and parts of the Granite Belt (particularly around Tenterfield, though most of it settled above 900m which was slightly above Tenterfield's elevation).

The other point of note is that pressures are a little lower than normal too for snow events (largely thanks to the ECL). So the 850 level will be slightly lower than normal.

Of course this will all come down to where the cold pool of air tracks over - if it slides too far to the south of the QLD border you'll need to go a fair way south for snow/hail/sleet!

AC

I remember seeing light settling snow at the Bunya mountains around 2006-07 and also on the news in Toowoomba and Stanthorpe. I can't remember the exact year,I just remember it being 5 or so years ago.