Not really seeing what the problem is here??? At the end of the day its all about precipitation and there is not a whole lot of doubting that the rainfall down there is at average or above average and is there really any problem if it falls as rain or is frozen to snow? I think its a big stretch to be calling for the "climate change doctor" to justify what seems to be just a "normal" transisition of overall weather patterns of the ages.I remember growing up dealing with far more extreme temperatures etc in my part of the world 20 or 30 years ago... so what caused it then? In 10 years from now we may well be asking what is causing the "cooling" or a succession of extreme cold fronts throughout the course of the southern winter. IMO its far too early to be making assumptions as to overall change in climate persay.

Its not really a problem here Orabound, if you read the first post from the thread, just an interesting point of discussion.

Looks like we will now go down as having three years without snow on the ground in Blackheath. First time in a hundred years as far as we can tell from the records.

The average is two to three settled falls a winter, now only one notable settled fall since 2005. This hasn't occured since before 1900, when reasonably reliable reports began.

Its a good thread, just as BD's report of great frontal activity is important, its also important to show how less potent they are as they move NE. Just about balance.

Maybe we are moving gradually into a colder, stronger frontal period now. I am happy to look at that. I think its also important to accept the opposite could also be true in the long run. Keep an open mind, I say.

Isn't that good science?

"Looks like we will now go down as having three years without snow on the ground in Blackheath. First time in a hundred years as far as we can tell from the records."

So its happened before then? So what's the problem? Sounds like the cycle is in full swing like all weather patterns. We had our hard drought now we look like a period of wet on the horizon. Looks like normal Aussie weather to me. Reminds me of a few lyrics of a song I know, "Droughts and flooding rains" or something like that...

My Country
by
Dorothea Mackellar
(1885 - 1968)


I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror -
The wide brown land for me!


[ Verse 2, Says it all really! ] ]

SAM now has gone negative for the first time since May..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/verf/new.aao.shtml#composite

I wonder what this could mean for weather for SE OZ over the coming weeks given that the IOD & ENSO are in our favour

By the way check this out guys a serious massive dump in the High Vic alps overnight/past 24 hours! Falls Creek 54cms! & Mt.Hotham 47cms! Falls Creek almost now up to 1.8 metres! Mt.Hotham following closely behind at 1.7 metres

http://ski.com.au/snowreport.html

Will be very interesting if the SAM / AAO continues to drop very quickly to much lower index numbers, Johnoo.
We have been getting a lot of relatively small rainfall events.
Those constant small events over the last couple of months have all added up to some quite large totals when compared to the last decade or so but we still haven't had any of those big rain events with 25 - 5 mms in a few hours that are the hall mark of the best seasons at all this year.
My observations over the last few years, for what they are worth, is that these light rains or shower bands just peter out when we get into spring and that has been the a big factor in the way the seasons have shaped up and a major factor in the dry and drought conditions in west Vic over the last decade or decade and a half.

If the SAM / AAO goes really negative over the next couple of weeks and stabilises, and if my theory [ ?? ] is somewhere near the mark that decent rain events follow a sustained drop in the SAM / AAO about 3 weeks after the drop into the negative, then I am hoping we may see a few of those big rain events coming through over the next couple of months and if that happens then the farmers and the water supplies for everybody will be set for some time.

BD made a comment on the enormous mass of cloud out in the Indian Ocean which he pointed out is a significant cause of the Paki floods and is also indicative of the strong possibility of some NW cloud bands developing for Australia although somewhat out of season for us.
So it is very interesting to look at the MTSAT images > Indian Ocean images and see the enormous amounts of water vapour streaming out of the Pacific warm pool around the Maritime Continent in the far western Pacific and to the north of us and then flowing westerwards in the equatorial latitiudes, which is the normal flow direction around the Equator.
All a part of the La Nina where the warm sub surface pool has shifted west and surfaced in the Pacific Warm Pool area, reinforcing and increasing the heat content there with more evaporation and the results we are seeing in that increased amount of WV across the Indian Ocean.
So more WV coming down in those NW cloud bands or just plain high WV content inflows we hope, across into SE Australia and into those [ weak, non existent ?? ] frontal systems that are pounding across here every second day or so.

Can't really complain about the strength of the cold fronts here this season. We had 10mm out of a weakish front. We have been getting consistant rains(smallish but as ROM said they are adding up) and this is now got us VERY wet and we have substantial subsoils mosture now. Once spring comes along we are more of a chance of thunderstorms coming in troughs. ROM may miss out on these being further south and under the influence of the maritime airmass. While I would prefer to see a good mix of both types of event coming through I think that the amount of moisture in the air now, we should not see the high spring temps of the last few years and if we did, we would be a chance for some stormy weather due to the heating.

ROM, in reference to the NW Cloud-bands...The best N to NW Cloud-band season for us I find is is Late August to Late November...despite other authorities giving April to September as the NW Cloud-band period.
Cheers

No it has not happened before because we do not have records going back more than 100 years and we know it was colder before that for the previous 500 years at least.
For me this has meant no proper freezing snow fall or blizzard in as many years also not seen before. Anyway for the moment its still nice to get at least wet snow but its no longer skiable. In previous years I would always get the skis out for a few runs around the yard at least a few times a winter, this has now been impossible for the last couple of years, which means I am forced to go to the Snowies now.

54cm Snow Storm
fallscreek: 26-8-2010

Mother nature has delivered a phenomenal last week of winter. Falls Creek has accumulated 226 cm of snowfall so far this month.
The mercury plummeted overnight at Victoria's largest alpine resort down to minus 7C and the 54cm of fresh snow, which fell in the last 24 hours, has broken August records kept since 1992.

The resort's Natural Snow Depth is now a whopping 177cm. This is now the deepest snow cover of any Victorian alpine resort and powderhounds are going to be relishing the most amazing late winter snow conditions in nearly two decades.

September is going to be sensational! There'll be significant snow cover on all the resort's lift -served terrain.



http://www.ski.com.au/cgi-bin/admin/news/vnews.pl?ad=-102130-&year=2010

A bit of puzzlement here. Nothing more than that
In my last post above "La Nina" appears as a link but I didn't link it so has WZ admin changed something to do this automatically as is done in a number of other blogs?

And it did it again but only after I "submitted" and not in the "preview" so it looks like an auto link that can't be checked in "preview" has been implemented.
Not sure I like this as the link given by WZ may not be the one I would choose or use for a particular item.

Hi ROM

Yep, found the same the other day. Other Mods have commented on this as well...but can't find anything from the Admins letting us know if this is something we can turn on or off - or what it might apply to...Don't like it myself for the same reason as you - so feel free to offer them some feedback

It has snowed near Canberra again. The Brindabella Ranges have had a good coating for the second time in a bit over a week.

In central NSW up to about five centimetres has settled on the ground in the Gingkin area on the Oberon Plateau. Nearby there has been light snow showers and sleet in Oberon town and in Orange.

"This is a pretty hefty pool of cold air, one containing strong winds and a bit of moisture and has reached the Queensland border," Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said.

"There have been reports of light snow flakes in the Guyra area this morning, but it's not quite cold enough for it to settle on the ground for very long," Dutschke said.

"It's the third time this month Guyra has had snow, normally it only happens once in August. In the last 30 years the most often it has snowed in August is four times, in 1990."

"As the cold air pool heads further north and east it will cause further light snowfalls along the ranges, possibly even in the Guyra area. Damaging winds are also a chance along the ranges."
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/snow-reaches-northern-nsw/14887

Yeah, a good call by you BD for stronger fronts moving into late winter, hopefully more will come.

It will now go down though as the longest stretch in the Blue Mountains without settled snow or significant snowfall - probably in the last hundred years. Fronts are still okay down south, sometimes very good but there is a lack of strong upper support for cold fronts moving NE.

That might gradually change in the future, depending on what climate theories are most correct. I don't know and am open to what develops.

I would rate this last front about a 7/10 system, not strong but not bad:

http://www.blackheathweather.com/picture2010.html

The good thing is that Spencers Creek is approaching the average snow depth for a season and that hasn't happened for a good time, that is just great.

I think you called that very well BD. You were certainly closer to the mark than my mid season predictions.

Maybe a few Spring cold outbreaks will do the job for you Blizzard, the improvement may take time to get further north, if not 2010, maybe 2011 for you onwards we hope anyway! Nice pics there. Doghouse snow looks great!

Thanks BD, look forward to your new models and their predictions, its seems like valuable contributions indeed in this area. I can learn something from your longer term forecasting skills for sure. Its an area where my skill is lacking.

That's why I started this thread as a means to learning more about what is happening. I never see it as a competition or who is right or wrong, its about learning.