Will be very interesting if the SAM / AAO continues to drop very quickly to much lower index numbers, Johnoo.
We have been getting a lot of relatively small rainfall events.
Those constant small events over the last couple of months have all added up to some quite large totals when compared to the last decade or so but we still haven't had any of those big rain events with 25 - 5 mms in a few hours that are the hall mark of the best seasons at all this year.
My observations over the last few years, for what they are worth, is that these light rains or shower bands just peter out when we get into spring and that has been the a big factor in the way the seasons have shaped up and a major factor in the dry and drought conditions in west Vic over the last decade or decade and a half.
If the SAM / AAO goes really negative over the next couple of weeks and stabilises, and if my theory [ ?? ] is somewhere near the mark that decent rain events follow a sustained drop in the SAM / AAO about 3 weeks after the drop into the negative, then I am hoping we may see a few of those big rain events coming through over the next couple of months and if that happens then the farmers and the water supplies for everybody will be set for some time.
BD made a comment on the enormous mass of cloud out in the Indian Ocean which he pointed out is a significant cause of the Paki floods and is also indicative of the strong possibility of some NW cloud bands developing for Australia although somewhat out of season for us.
So it is very interesting to look at the MTSAT images > Indian Ocean images
and see the enormous amounts of water vapour streaming out of the Pacific warm pool around the Maritime Continent in the far western Pacific and to the north of us and then flowing westerwards in the equatorial latitiudes, which is the normal flow direction around the Equator.
All a part of the La Nina where the warm sub surface pool has shifted west and surfaced in the Pacific Warm Pool area, reinforcing and increasing the heat content there with more evaporation and the results we are seeing in that increased amount of WV across the Indian Ocean.
So more WV coming down in those NW cloud bands or just plain high WV content inflows we hope, across into SE Australia and into those [ weak, non existent ?? ] frontal systems that are pounding across here every second day or so.