Yes, I just used the LTW patterning (Well, the lack of it) from a couple of days ago, it seemed to suggest little chance of the Monday system. Its quite a good guide but those backdoor fronts can slip in without a strong LWT at times. The upper and mid level winds weren't that supportive of it though, so I went with that.

If I was looking at the SMH charts back in the 1980s with the Toyota Corona loaded up with leaded petrol and chunky re-treads, I would certainly be going on a snow chase to the OP on Friday. In reality, its a borderline setup, could bring us 10cm of snow or more above 1200M with snow showers down to 1000M or it could just produce light snow above 1200M.

The LWT is looking about as good as it can (these days, anyway) during Friday, so I do think there will be some nice snow on the OP, if that stays as progged. In association with that, 300hPa winds are not too bad as well and look to maintain the tot tots in fairly good order.

If you are coming from Sydney, don't snow chase via the GWH on Saturday, you will have major headaches as the Winter Magic Festival blocks a lot of roads...thousands of visitors will he here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HM9CwwAU-Y

And just a reminder, back roads up this way and on the OP still have a lot of pot holes from LaNina. I don't know the details but one chaser recently did quite a bit of damage to his car (steering and wheel) on the OP.

Thanks for the tips about the pot holes Blizz.
I'll keep a keen eye out for them.
Sounds quite positive snow wise for Friday.

Homer

Blizz, did you see Bom's Friday forecast for Orange, rain 2-6, pretty poor effort for them.

I saw that too Peter.
I suspect that might change at the 4.30 pm forecast this afternoon.

Homer

Homer - the drive via Hampton/Oberon/Oconnell is very scenic - enjoy.

GFS has 536 thickness not far from here on Friday - if enough precip around there should be some flakes in the higher plateau areas.

Tassie will be almost down to 524 at times during these changes - snow will be quite low, at least to about 300m.

The difference a bit of latitude makes.

Best of the snowfall sems to be on Friday, I dont know if Saturday willbe worth it for a snowchase.....

I got exams finishing on friday so will just miss it by a day,gaaaaah!!

Sunday into Monday front seems to have fizzled out completely...

Whats the chances of a little powder on the Barringtons with this system?

EC progs a interesting little cutoff for sunday night/ monday morning.
One to watch if it gets some rotation.

There must be a policy at the BOM to not forecast snow unless it's imminent, which is fair enough given that it's a fairly low probability event for anywhere outside of the Alps.

I'm surprised they haven't included snow in the more general CTs forecast though, no harm in saying "showers, possibly falling as snow above 1000 m" for instance.

They used to include snow, some days out from the event, if the front was looking half decent. A portion of the higher ground on the tablelands is used for grazing, so it can help the farmers etc. In recent years they have apparently gone the other way, not forecasting snow until it is actually snowing...at least for the CT of NSW anyway.

Maybe its part of the changing climate thing, not sure but they rarely forecast snow ahead of time up here now.

How about Armidale forecast for Tuesday- Patchy morning frost, -7! Patchy?!

Seems silly doesn’t it, the only explanation I can think of is there expecting the air to be very dry after the cold front, thus limiting frost formation. If it's -7 in Armidale I’d imagine double figures for you Ron!

ACCESS-R is showing good upper support for the Thursday/Friday/Saturday front. 500hPa temps down to -28 over quite a large area of as well. Cold upper air mass moves through with the moisture and cold 850hPa temps on board as well. Looks like 12am-5am will be the best chance for snow on the CT's, im thinking 5-10cm at this stage about 1100m based oin current progs. Could be more could be less but thats my best educated guess. Temps probably not overly cold but im thinking -0.5 at 1100m down to -2 at 1350m (aprox max elevation on the CT's).

Not sure what might be instore for the BM's though. Moisture looks good as do temps so might even get a few cm in Blizz's backyard hopefully!

Davidg, do you mean 12-5 Friday morning? Not Saturday?

Arrrgghhh - I don't want the highway closed and that'd be almost enough to do it!!!

Homer

It seems that the BoM errs on the side of probability lately, rather than caution. Same deal with the Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that come out late - they would rather be late than wrong, which is just poor for a public service like this.

Yeah, looking at the BoM ACCESSR (can't view Weatherzone ACCESSR 00z yet) and GFS 00z I can sort of see the BoM's reasons. Its not looking very potent for mine, good for the ski fields but you would call this a top up front in decades gone bye. Its going to be very marginal for up this way, quite possibly. Always hard to tell when systems are not very strong as you are talking about marginal setups for snow unless you go up high, above 1200M.

Lets hope it improves, it certainly could if we get lucky. We just need those cold uppers to move maybe 100Ks further north and we will be in business.

There is still an opportunity for snow on the CT with this current setup but it will be brief if we go off GFS. You can see how quickly everything ridges out with the high moving in (pressure increasing) and that's because there is not enough instability but in the afternoon on Friday will be the best chance at this stage for snow above about 1150M on the OP.

It could start earlier than that and maybe the sat pic will tell us that on game day.

The chances for the BM are not great but we could see sleet or wet snow like we did in the last event on Friday.

Hey Homer Im thinking 12am-5am Sat morning going off ACCESS-R.

Ok ill start by clarifying that this all hinges on it not ridging out to produce nothing but a bit of pre-frontal rain. Still not close enough to make a definitive call just yet...but... there may well be snow from about 6pm Friday as 850hpa temps should be cold enough for snow above approx. 1200m (0c). Colder uppers (-28c) and colder 850hpa temps (-2c) don't move through until about midnight Friday (bit of an assumption, i.e. high pressure doesn't spoil the party) however so I'm pegging around then to be the best chance for some decent heavy snowfalls on the CT's.

Agreed Blizz still a few gaps to be filled in but its coming up to the 72h window which normally clarifies those niggling questions. I cannot see much for BM's as its looking predominantly SW-W'ly but should be cold enough if the moisture is available.

GFS 00z looks good for a warm-up next week after that big ridge slides a bit to the south and heads east with Fri-sat being the most significant front (if you could call it that)

Definitely too dry by late Friday night and Saturday morning. Friday afternoon still looks ideal for me. Notice how the sub -30deg contour at 500mb moves well north into western NSW on Friday morning. We are already at the latitude there, but then the models have it moving back ESE as it tracks across NSW. But its ever so slight, a strong temperature gradient develops over the CT's at 500mb through the day.

This gradient and the strong westerly winds will produce a lot of instability and uplift and deliver good classic heavy showers getting colder as the temps drop through the day. Just looking at the heaviness of the showers and where the zero degree at 850mb issotherm lies after 10am Friday, its quite certain there will be snow falling in the mix above 1100m. I would still expect a snowfall to settle here in the afternoon that could produce headaches with traffic.

However I agree it will be a fine line as to how much snow will fall, just 100km difference in the upper temps position will make a big difference.

Updated forecast is looking good.

Friday: Isolated snow showers on and east of the ranges above 1200 metres in the late afternoon
Sunday: The chance of showers in the south from the late morning, falling as snow above 900 metres during the evening.