I'm rather surprised this hasn't had more discussion. The Bureau has in its CT forecasts "isolated" or "chance of" snow showers "in the south" to 1100m from tomorrow afternooon to Saturday morning.

Both the ACCESS-R and GFS 00z models throw a significant cold pool across central southern NSW during Friday with temps at 500hPa of the order of -28 to -30. Sub-zero 850 temps arrive over the southern CT late Friday afternoon. Needless to say, this temperature difference pushes instability way up (>55 tot-tots), and there's a fairly good window when all this coincides with reasonable moisture from late afternoon to late evening Friday.

Hey Laurier, we are in the NSW/ACT thread here:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...Jun#Post1110429

Laurier, I saw your post in the other thread so came down here. Perhaps I am to blame by starting a snow/rain thread in NSW at the end of May. That system I always knew was going to be more interesting for rain than snow so chose NSW. Anyway I understand what you mean, you have points for keeping it here for sure.

What do you make of the downgrade by 06z GFS?, it is noticeable, 850's look more fragmented, and uppers move south a little sooner. Its such a fine line between good and bad, I just cannot call this, it seems to be line ball to me. Such a shame this is not a cold pool moving from the SW through NSW.

I WANT SNOW!! Hand ups who agrees.. haha. Will be quite interesting in a week or so, my job finishes up at the Essential Energy control room in Bathurst on 1st july, already a major transformation has occurred, so heading to ACT (Queanbeayan ) for many months, so the roads from Bx to Act on occasions will be bad! Or closed!

Would be good to see some great snow while driving over these months..

Dave

Peter, I've done a side-by-side check using the NSW frames for the 00z and 06z progs for 11pm Friday at http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast.html and the 500 and 850 temps for the OP area are nearly identical at about -26 and -1. What has changed, for the better, is the 700 moisture which is now more coherent in the central and western CT. The 06z ACCESS-A for NSW (which was delayed a few hours after a technical glitch in Melbourne) for the same time has -1 at 850 and -28 at 500, but has a sharp divide in the 700 moisture with lots south and little north of 35S which is just south of Crookwell. The Bureau's Forecast Explorer 6pm issue is interesting, showing a broad area of snow over the OP, Yetholme area and Mt Canobolas on the 7pm and 10pm Friday and 1am Saturday frames.

I agree that mixed weather topics (snow, rain, wind, storms etc) are a problem and that state-based is the only way to go (otherwise the Tasmanians would go nuts as they usually have it all at the same time). But when the main focus is snow, it should be here.

Thanks Laurier, yes I noticed that distinct change to much more moisture at the 35S boundary southwards. That agrees well with the movement of the colder upper temps which seem to be dragged south as they approach in a similar way to one previous cold change. However anything that does not clearly cross north of the 35S line rarely gets here.

Its not so much temp values at some specific spots that have changed much, but the continuous field of sub zero temps at 850 that is not as large at 06z, previously it went more north of the 35S line, as well to the SW it was not as broken by warmer air as it is now. As well the -25deg isotherm at 500mb snuck just a little bit better north of 35S by maybe 100km or so.

I watch any changes just north of that -35S line intently because that is where the action is for us, once it does not cross that line its only an ACT affair. Still it will be a very close call and some deviation is still possible, just have to wait and see.

BOM now have snow in the south of the Central Tablelands this afternoon above 700 metres, with snow symbols for Orange, Bathurst and Lithgow.
That's a bit of a surprise this morning.

Homer

Also, Perisher reading 35.8 mm's overnight at on or just slightly above or below zero, so one might suspect that would be snow, although stranger things have happened.
If true, 35 cm's of snow overnight = wow.

Waiting for some light to check webcams.

Homer

Stupid edit time.
Re-above post and snow to 700 mtrs.

That can't be right, surely?
Even the state forcast only mentions 900 mtrs.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/centraltablelands.shtml

Homer

Not wrong... Snow to 700m on the CT's! FCE even has a dot over Bathurst.

to me it doesn't look that impressive in the models.

Last time I'd seen snow in Bathurst was 2 to 3 years ago in that freakish October front. Maybe the kids will have another nice white gold surprise tonight.

Yeah, I wouldn't think snow to 700 metres up this way but haven't looked at the details this morning.

I do think snow weather is best kept here, its only logical but it can get a bit confusing at times when weather systems affect the whole state and others in NSW want to post as well re wind and rain in their area.

I would think more like snow to 900M on the OP and perhaps snow to 1000M in the Blue Mountains if the cold pool maximises over our area which GFS shows it could. I would rate the BM a 25 to 30% chance of seeing snow showers today and the OP a high chance above 1100M.

The BM could even get a settling above 1050, to a cm or three.

FWIW, I'm very pleased to see a separate thread for each snow event. Even if they fizzle out it's good to have them catalogued individually. Make life easier for busy people like me with short attention spans.

Looks like an exciting day to be outside testing weapons. Brrr. Still very warm here at home at 8.8°C, quite gusty last night. Lovely sunrise.

Andrew.

The snow icons just disappeared from the WZ CT forcast map for Bathurst and Lithgow.

Andrew.

BOM has re-issued the forecast @ 6:59am. 900 mtrs now.

Its cool Drew, if ACCESSR has its way, there will be snow here. That upper cold pool is pretty cold, just a matter of whether it stays strong enough and not too fragmented as it rolls over the Blue Mountains. We could get nothing here, nice snow showers or even a settling. Just have to watch the track of the system later today.

If the coldest part of the cold pool fragments or doesn't reach us, don't stress too much as even the broader part of the cold pool via ACCESSR is progged to be -26C to -28C at 500hPa and that is fine for snow in the BM.

Its just a matter of checking this system's passage in real-time via surface obs, reports and the soundings, to see what it will actually do.

I don't think I will chase today, may go out tomorrow on the OP for some pano shots, if its nice out there.

Such a shame we are not getting the cold pool from Adelaide moving straight across, mount Lofty as low as 2.5deg in the showers with -30 at 500mb above. Models still show the cold pool moving SE and weakening as it travels. I am a bit worried it may be close but no cigar. Very very warm this morning, that is not a pleasant surprise. The cold pools seem to lack the driver of the stronger westerlies to keep them moving.

LOL.

I dont know if we will get anything it is to warm and the sky is more like rain not snow showers we may get sleet as the ground is to wet for anything to settle. will see what happens but i really dont think much as the people that usually can tell in there bones have not said a thing. We will see may be wrong.

This is pre-frontal rain beabea, not the cold air field itself, that is due later. Have a look at the sat pic and you can see the cold air field moving in behind the pre-frontal stuff.

The weather in Bathurst sure has changed this morning! Bittlerly cold and rain, winds have picked up.. mist you cannot see Bathurst from Kelso.

7.2 deg falling, Humidity 88 %. NNW winds 24 km/h. If snow was to fall down to 700m, actually might fall in Bathurst ,which is rare..

Keep and ear out on radio scanner, can imagine some roads becoming hazardous today/tonight.

Dave