looked like something brewing out over Kanangra/Jenolan way when I walked the dogs around 4.30pm
3.7c here now

temp dropped 2c in an hour (and possibly more over a longer period) as that precipitation passed through Cowra earlier
Certainly something heading this way on the radar

As Blizzard has stated earlier in this thread, it's best to take the Bells Line of Road through to Lithgow because of the Winter Magic Festival. From Lithgow you can take the South Bowenfels-Sodwalls-Tarana Road thence Tarana-Oberon, but the South Bowenfels-Sodwalls section is badly potholed- beware.

Just looking at the coldest air on ACCESS-R at 7pm, it looks like in reality its a touch further north than progged via the current IR sat loop and also arriving a touch earlier. That direction its coming from is also a bit better for the BM, for those showers to push in without as much obstruction from Bindo, Trickett and friends.

Rain and a mild crack and roll of thunder here at Millthorpe. The northern extent of the band heading for the BM I think,

Good stuff Msnow. So coldies are coming or at least in the area, so that does give all of us above 1000M a chance of snow, whether they pass over Yetholme, Oberon or the BM etc.

Blizzard... I havent left Blackheath yet, do you recommend that I stay here?

Just had a nice shower of hail/sago. Laurier will be better at telling us what it was. Nice covering on the back deck where it blew in under cover. Hopefully good stuff heading to the BM

Good question SSC. All I can do is give you some details and then you can decide for yourself.

Its currently 3.5C at my place, I'd prefer it to be 3C but its still okay. IF we get a coldie passing over town (emphasis on IF) then it could drop to around 1C with showers, so snow could fall. The benefit of heading out to the OP is that you can drive around a lot more, looking for the best shower activity and higher hills as well.

Also, you would still be driving home through the upper BM later tonight and could see how we fared.

Thanks Blizzard... Im going for a drive to the OP and see what I can get from there cheers

The crack of thunder was near Dubbo, models were suggesting some convection slightly north of Dubbo that I figured was still residual from the weak rainband moving NE. It is surprising that there is convection holding southwards. However at the same time stronger showers that were supposed to be near Canberra at this time are missing so perhaps a part of the upper cold has traveled differently to model expectations thanks to the very slow movement of this system and that break away cold pool that models suggested yesterday.

But still quite a bit of cooling needed to get to zero, Orange still looks way too warm.

I concur with Blizz, it's usually the OP or bust these days. Unfortunately, it's a long way for me to travel living in south-east Sydney so I would love a few more falls around Blackheath/Mt. Vic/Bell. I know it's no excuse but I'm not as hard core as some of the fanatical chasers .

Would love to know what that first lump of precipitation has brought to Oberon - seems pretty well lined up to hit the Upper BMs.
Still 3.8c so a bit warm

There should be a gradual cooling soon and you can see some decent cells on the higher res sat loops. I would prefer it to be 3C or lower now but I've seen it drop from 4C here in situations like this to 1C in quick time. It depends on how cold this approaching cold air field actually is and how strong the individual coldies are etc.

NO snow/sleet falling in the Oberon township from this passing shower ATM. Just cold rain. Heading back to Bathurst shortly.

I would think that Shooters/Trickett would have a little wet white gold falling from these showers passing over now. Looks OK on the radar too further west, however snow doesn't appear on the radar usually, so maybe later on.

Fingers crossed and drive safely snow chasers...

Yes Aaron, I copped that driving back from Blayney for a quick shop. As I drove there at 5pm it was clear daylight to my north and east but black as night to my west and south, with tell-tale white streaks in front of the approaching cloudmass. Temp on the car thermometer was 6. I drove back between 5.30 and 5.45. Light rain started as I got into the car. Up the hill towards Millthorpe the temp dropped from 5 to 3 and torrential rain began. It continued to drop to 1 with the headlights filled with heavy rain droplets, huge ice-filled drops, hail and snowflakes. That cloud had serious instability to produce such a mix at the same time. I had to stop in a few places when the road was no longer visible. Moving into the village, it was obvious the roads were covered in up to 1cm slush, and I did a nice 20m slide braking down the hill to my place. I think it's gonna be an interesting night.

Crikey Laurier, that is a good temp drop under a coldie. Gives us all a bit of hope. It reminds me of the time here in around 2003 when it was about 4C and we had a crack of thunder, intense pea hail to about 1 or 2cm thickness then 3cm of snow. Walking on snow on top of a good cover of small hail felt really funny.

Take a look at Orange AP OBS. o_O

Just noticed that - very nice!!
still 3.9c here

Does anyone know how accurate the BMCC Weather station at Katoomba is -

http://www.bmcc.nsw.gov.au/weather/Katoomba/

I seem to remember it has issues due to it's proximity to a metal roof in daylight hours, however is it fairly spot on for nightime temp readings?
Currently reads 4.1c (Only .7c lower than Mt Boyce AWS)

Cheers,

Greg

The super-coldie that swept through Blayney-Millthorpe can be seen on the 4.30pm enhanced IR [here] - it's the aqua-green dot NW of the clear irregularity on the coast that is Jervis Bay and just west of the 150E meridian. The animation [here] shows numerous coldies moving to the east or northeast, depending on where they are in relation to the trough which appears to be quite sharp, pretty much as GFS forecast. The vis image animation [here] in the hours up to darkness suffers from reception or scanning problems, but still shows the rapid and widespread growth of coldies even more dramatically as the cold upper air has moved eastwards.