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#1111021 - 24/06/2012 10:14 NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
May as well have a bit of fun and start a discussion about next weekend. I know models are still very wobbly on this and anything could happen at this stage from great to just a small cold change for the Snowies. But EC holds 2 fairly cold days for next weekend which makes me think there could be more to this. Because of this even the Ensemble EC is holding an ok sort of LWT over the SE next weekend. 18z GFS although not at all reliable at this time has thrown up a quite incredible scenario that would bulls-eye the CT's with very low level and reasonably heavy snow to about 500m.

I might be taking a very big gamble with this thread, but who knows, still will be some snow for the Snowies, just have to wait and see where else and how much there will be.

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#1111044 - 24/06/2012 13:39 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
AaronD Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 1017
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
I haven't been on WZ forum for a while but just recently been reading again so am keen for a epic winter!

I've been sussing out next weekend too. All the various models are showing a decent cold change in the upper levels which is always a good sign. The more southerly from the low in the Tasman(rather than SW'ly) winds could be better for the BMs too + some moisture grin
I think it will definitely be interesting to watch unfold over the next week.

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#1111045 - 24/06/2012 13:42 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10341
Loc: Blue Mountains
Yeah, why not take a gamble PD, at least we have something to talk about. We did say it might take a while for this season to rev up, so maybe nature has got her motor running. We'll see. I'm glad I didn't head out to the OP on Friday/Saturday, would prefer to be chased home by bigger front. Slight chance this may turn out well.

I'll be the first to thank BD if the fronts kick on this year.
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#1111062 - 24/06/2012 17:31 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: Blizzard]
Andrew Miskelly Offline
Weatherzone Webmaster

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 3148
Loc: Mittagong, NSW
Currently looks very stable but quite cold on GFS. The sort of thing where you might get a bit of rime on exposed slopes above the freezing level.

I like the strong, deep southerlies coming onto Victoria's south coast in the mid and upper levels. Not even the hint of any of this cutoff nonsense.

EC is a little less anticyclonic. ACCESS is largely uninteresting.

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#1111063 - 24/06/2012 17:32 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: Blizzard]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Yes, I like to chase at home too, does not matter when it happens then day or night, can always turn on the spotlights. The last one although short was still magnificent in the spotlights. Nothing quite like having the snow at home.

EC looks pretty good and solid, geopotential under 5460 for the CT's which is pretty decent given the SLP. GFS backed of a bit but is still there just with some snow even for the CT's. But given EC it should improve next run again.

Whatever happens it does seem quite likely that 850mb temps will be colder next weekend than this weekend. Just need a fragment of those cold uppers drifting over to get the instability going and we should see some snow.

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#1111073 - 24/06/2012 18:15 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10341
Loc: Blue Mountains
Yeah, its nice to 'chase' at home but not a luxury that comes that often for my town these days. Think I have had only had two falls over 8cm in fifteen years, that is pretty poor.

I do like the look of this system, not that its uniform across the models yet but it is showing up on most of them as something to watch.

Yeah, better 850hPa temps could be the go and it would be nice to have a strong 300hPa jet roaring over us and lower down supportive winds as well. There's always one thing or more missing these days, so maybe just once we can see a system that has bells and whistles. Who knows...


Edited by Blizzard (24/06/2012 18:16)
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#1111082 - 24/06/2012 19:31 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: Blizzard]
Laurier Williams Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2001
Posts: 2192
Loc: Millthorpe, 970m, Central W NS...
Yes, certainly an interesting one to watch. The WZ snow forecast for 10am Saturday [here] looks quite colourful for the CT and certainly the Alps. Although, the event does seem to be missing quite a few requirements for the predicted CT snow, such as upper moisture, instability and the southern upper winds that Blizz referred to.


Edited by Laurier Williams (24/06/2012 19:35)
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#1111084 - 24/06/2012 19:45 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: Laurier Williams]
MillthorpeSnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 183
Loc: Millthorpe NSW - 955m ASL
I love (or used to love) a bit of speculation when it comes to possible events like this. Have unfortunately seen SO many fizzle out to absolutely nothing over the last decade or so, with the occasional one bringing some joy. Look forward to more discussion on this during the week. Might reduce my cynicism and get some of the old enthusiasm roaring again. One day or night, everything will align and we will get the type of system that will be talked about for years and years and years. A once in a lifetimer. One that I would give a 20/10. I think the last good one for me was 2002, from memory an 8-9/10.

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#1111122 - 25/06/2012 06:53 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: MillthorpeSnow]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
I know what you mean MillthorpeSnow, Orange area especially has changed so much over the last 20 years by loosing the consistent winter westerly's.

Still looking an ok sort of cold front although because of the lack of upper support in the last two model runs, it has come down to rather dry after the cold air arrives. Still a fair bit of play in this before next weekend so still hope of better. EC tends to delay the coldest front until the end of the weekend. This gives hope that both models could still improve once they agree on the timing, I am still hoping this will happen.

(NZ is getting another great front in a couple of days with 500mb at -35 and 850's under -5.)

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#1111132 - 25/06/2012 08:26 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
davidg Offline
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Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2204
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Latest ACCESS-G disagrees. Really cold 850hPa temps (-4 to -5) and serious upper support (-32). Would be snow to 3-400m in Vic if it were to eventuate.

Subsequent model runs will be far less bullish IMO. LWT looks flat to me but it not always the be all to end all. All three models showing something at least so some good signs already i suppose.

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#1111134 - 25/06/2012 08:37 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: davidg]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10341
Loc: Blue Mountains
ACCESS-G is lower resolution though than the others, it tends to paint outcomes with a very broad brush. This morning, I don't like the look of most of the indicators for this event. Have a look at mslp via EC as we move into Sunday, that tells a story. It could be a lovely front but at the moment most signs are that it will bring some snow to the ski fields, a possible light coverage to the CT of NSW and that's about it.

The surface low is not in a great position, giving us a stable, mostly dry system at this stage, up this way. The LWT is flatter than a sub-continent day five pitch and most of the cold, unstable air is well south of the CT.

Rest assured we will all be checking the 00z outcomes tonight, as its impossible to give up hope whilst there is cold air within 1000ks of the mainland...
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#1111149 - 25/06/2012 09:42 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: Blizzard]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Thanking the weather gods for this one - while it may not be certain, at least it's currently placed on a weekend where I'm actually free!
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#1111155 - 25/06/2012 10:23 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: davidm]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
18z GFS maintains the idea it had yesterday (although not as good as yesterday) of a fairly decent cold pool moving over the CT that is strong enough to drop a snowfall here. There is still some wobbliness in timing, this time it should happen Sunday which agrees well with latest EC. Sunday would see a broad area of 500mb temps under -25, probably -27 on CT's, temps about -1 at 850mb and close to 5mm falling as snow through the day to about 1000m. EC's current geopotential of 5460m for Sunday agrees well with this. The lack of strong winds or strong surface msl pattern masks what is happening with the cold pool above. This could be a sneaky one.

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#1111192 - 25/06/2012 14:59 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Laurier Williams Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2001
Posts: 2192
Loc: Millthorpe, 970m, Central W NS...
Actually, both ACCESS-G and GFS are going for 850 temps between -2 and -4 during Sunday, giving some extra low-level strength to this system that the system we've just had lacked.
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#1111193 - 25/06/2012 15:03 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: Laurier Williams]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Another problem though, 00z looks terrible

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#1111194 - 25/06/2012 15:09 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
MillthorpeSnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 183
Loc: Millthorpe NSW - 955m ASL
Originally Posted By: PeterDuke
This time it should happen Sunday which agrees well with latest EC. Sunday would see a broad area of 500mb temps under -25, probably -27 on CT's, temps about -1 at 850mb and close to 5mm falling as snow through the day to about 1000m.


So really, you are predicting a settling snowfall out around Oberon, the upper BM or the lower areas of Mt Canobolas, or any combination of the three, during Sunday day. It will be interesting to see how close the event turns out to your prediction 5 (6?) days out.

Blizz, had to laugh at the cold air within 1000km of the mainland comment. So true.

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#1111196 - 25/06/2012 15:19 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: MillthorpeSnow]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Only problem though, 00z has smashed that idea, do not like it at all

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#1111211 - 25/06/2012 16:27 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Piaggio Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/08/2010
Posts: 14
Loc: FL350
And as previously mentioned, it would seem that the sub-tropical Highs are just too far south. They keep pushing the "good" Lows too far south (of Tassie).

Still, if even just one little middle level cold pool would creep up from Friday's Low, then it looks to me that the instability and moisture might be there for a taste of snow on Saturday?

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#1111217 - 25/06/2012 16:56 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: Piaggio]
dorrigo1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/01/2012
Posts: 72
According to the news article on WZ regarding warmer nights ahead for NSW, it states that an increase in cloud cover associated with a strong front on the weekend should bring snowfall as far north as the CT...

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#1111220 - 25/06/2012 17:14 Re: NSW Tablelands snow weekend 30/06 - 01/07/2012 [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Laurier Williams Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2001
Posts: 2192
Loc: Millthorpe, 970m, Central W NS...
I'm not too fussed with the changes in the 00z runs. We are, after all, talking 5 to 6 days out. Using the OP as a reference point, and compared to the 12z run, GFS's 00z run has brought the passage of the upper trough forward from early Sunday morning to Saturday afternoon. Geopotential height on the passage of the trough has risen a smidge from 5480 to 5500 while the coldest temperature has actually dropped slightly from -25 to -26. Relative humidity at both 700 and 850 have hardly changed (700 is non-existant, 850 is pretty good). The biggest change is unfortunately the 850 temps which have changed from a healthy -2 or lower to close to zero, and the reason for this seems to be a tightening of the trough which brings the lower winds more onshore (S to SSE) behind the trough at 850 instead of the more robust SWlies forecast at 12z.

The 00z run ACCESS-G maintains good strength in all major measures (again using the OP as a reference location). The trough comes through on Sunday morning with geopotential height at 500hPa down to 5460 and temp as low as -28, 850 temp hangs around -1 to -2 for most of Sunday with the wind during the day between WNW and WSW at over 25kts, and moisture at both 850 and 700 are quite good for the day.

I think it's inevitable there will be wobbles from run to run and model to model at this stage, and so long as there isn't a progressive slide away from a significant cold change, most of the preconditions for potential snow will stay there. My main concern at present is that neither the GFS nor ACCESS are going for any precipitation of note on the CT although that strikes me as strange given the amount of moisture on ACCESS. The Snowies and in particular the Victorian Alps should do nicely again in the moist pre-trough northwesterlies and the westerlies accompanying the trough.
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