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#1136033 - 28/10/2012 19:11 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
The news on TV just stated the waves could be as high as two meters? Time will tell.

The waves do not necessarily need to be too high to be destructive because of the force and volume of water travelling with/behind the wave.
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#1136038 - 28/10/2012 19:16 Re: Tsunami [Re: Moonstruck]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL
------------------------ ----- ------ ------- -----------
DART46419PT NW SEATTLE 48.8N 129.6W 0345UTC 00.2FT/00.07M
CRAIG AK 55.5N 133.1W 0446UTC 00.3FT/00.10M
PORT ALEXANDER AK 56.2N 134.6W 0533UTC 00.5FT/00.14M
WINTER HARBOUR BC 50.7N 128.3W 0400UTC 00.5FT/00.16M
SITKA AK 57.1N 135.3W 0425UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
ELFIN COVE AK 58.2N 136.3W 0448UTC 00.2FT/00.07M
SITKA AK 57.1N 135.3W 0440UTC 00.3FT/00.10M
YAKUTAT AK 59.5N 139.7W 0523UTC 00.4FT/00.12M
CHARLESTON OR 43.3N 124.3W 0524UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
GARIBALDI OR 45.6N 123.9W 0515UTC 00.2FT/00.05M
LA PUSH WA 47.5N 124.4W 0448UTC 00.4FT/00.13M
NEAH BAY WA 48.4N 124.6W 0530UTC 00.3FT/00.10M
PORT ORFORD OR 42.7N 124.5W 0658UTC 00.6FT/00.18M
SOUTH BEACH OR 44.6N 124.0W 0524UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
WESTPORT WA 46.9N 124.1W 0550UTC 00.3FT/00.10M
YAKUTAT AK 59.5N 139.7W 0520UTC 00.3FT/00.08M
ARENA COVE CA 38.9N 123.7W 0637UTC 01.3FT/00.41M
CRESCENT CITY CA 41.7N 124.2W 0649UTC 01.3FT/00.40M
NORTH SPIT CA 40.8N 124.2W 0626UTC 00.5FT/00.15M
SEWARD AK 60.1N 149.4W 0600UTC 00.5FT/00.16M
MONTEREY HARBOR CA 36.6N 121.9W 0727UTC 00.4FT/00.13M
SAN FRANCISCO CA 37.8N 122.5W 0646UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
KODIAK AK 57.7N 152.5W 0650UTC 00.4FT/00.13M
SAND POINT AK 55.3N 160.5W 0705UTC 00.3FT/00.08M

Recorded wave heights for all locations above listed are closer to the epicentre. As waves over 6ft for Hawaii is an example of media beatup. There are no such efficient valid resources of 6foot waves for HI. Its very minor tsunami. More like changing your small creeks within the bay patterns.


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 19:19)
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#1136042 - 28/10/2012 19:49 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24780
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
abc news 24 and channel 7 are live with hawaiian news (in qld atleast anyway)
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1136044 - 28/10/2012 19:58 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1978
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
I know the west coast of California is overdue for a biggie. Hope this is not the start of a sequence. And... Hawaii is half way between the west coast of Canada and east coast of Australia. Something to bear in mind for big big tsunamis.
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#1136045 - 28/10/2012 20:04 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10146
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Mick10
abc news 24 and channel 7 are live with hawaiian news (in qld atleast anyway)

Yep, ABC News 24 is showing Hawaiian News with live tsunami coverage here as well. Prime is still showing Border Security here though (will be Airways in a minute or so).
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2017 Rainfall: 2.6mm (Sep Avg. 56.6mm) // September 2017 Raindays: 1 (Sep Avg. 8.4 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1248.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1153.5mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 106 (Jan-Sep Avg. 102.0 raindays)

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#1136050 - 28/10/2012 20:27 Re: Tsunami [Re: Seabreeze]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24780
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
ch7 qld being an hour behind went back to the brisbane studio just before 7pm and have continued on with sunday night now.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1136054 - 28/10/2012 20:59 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
EDIT: I can't be bothered to write this. I was right in first place.


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 21:05)
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#1136055 - 28/10/2012 21:13 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2050
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Despite it being a bit of a fizzer, so far, I hope that people were intelligent enough to listen to the warnings, evacuate when asked.

Even if it proves that in this case it wasn't necessary it will be invaluable to them in lifes lessons, eg to keep an evacuation kit handy, keep important documents ready to leave home with, ensure they have family plans on where they will meet if separated at the evac time. Which are the best routes to take, how long it will take them to be out of the danger zone.

Only an idiot would not follow evac directions or listen to people who say "It won't happen here".

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#1136056 - 28/10/2012 21:21 Re: Tsunami [Re: bundybear]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
For relevant information please see here: http://ptwc.weather.gov/

This website has no significant danger from the waves that can be damaging to the life and property in accordance to the guage reports.
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#1136060 - 28/10/2012 21:45 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
The web site you have suggested matthew ..says
quote
"URGENT ACTION"
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

?? The authorities are obviously concerned..
-------------------

Full report below from that link posted below
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=hawaii.TSUHWX.2012.10.28.1022
---------------------------
WEHW40 PHEB 281022
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-281222-
/O.CON.PHEB.TS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 9
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1216 AM HST SUN OCT 28 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WARNING SUPPLEMENT

A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0504 PM HST 27 OCT 2012
COORDINATES - 52.8 NORTH 131.8 WEST
LOCATION - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.7 MOMENT

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

REPORTS OF 4FT OSCILLATIONS CONTINUING AT WAILOA HARBOR NEAR HILO
ON THE BIG ISLAND


GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
HONOLULU OAHU 21.3N 157.9W 0903Z 0.15M / 0.5FT 12MIN
MOKUOLOE OAHU 21.4N 157.8W 0858Z 0.08M / 0.2FT 08MIN
MIDWAY 28.2N 177.4W 0923Z 0.09M / 0.3FT 10MIN
HILO HAWAII 19.7N 155.1W 0853Z 0.37M / 1.2FT 16MIN
KAWAIHAE HAWAII 20.0N 155.8W 0931Z 0.43M / 1.4FT 08MIN
KAHULUI MAUI 20.9N 156.5W 0907Z 0.76M / 2.5FT 12MIN
WAIANAE HI 21.4N 158.2W 0855Z 0.16M / 0.6FT 06MIN
HALEIWA HI 21.6N 158.1W 0844Z 0.43M / 1.4FT 10MIN
HANALEI HI 22.2N 159.5W 0843Z 0.17M / 0.6FT 22MIN
MAKAPU`U HI 21.3N 157.7W 0849Z 0.41M / 1.3FT 08MIN
DART 46410 57.6N 143.8W 0428Z 0.03M / 0.1FT 32MIN
DART 46409 55.3N 148.5W 0444Z 0.02M / 0.1FT 38MIN
DART 46403 52.7N 156.9W 0528Z 0.02M / 0.1FT 26MIN
DART 46402 51.1N 164.0W 0609Z 0.02M / 0.1FT 24MIN
DART 46404 45.9N 128.8W 0423Z 0.05M / 0.1FT 30MIN
DART 46407 42.6N 128.9W 0456Z 0.07M / 0.2FT 28MIN
SITKA AK 57.1N 135.3W 0542Z 0.09M / 0.3FT 30MIN
CRESCENT CITY CA 41.7N 124.2W 0736Z 0.42M / 1.4FT 24MIN
DART 46419 48.8N 129.6W 0344Z 0.07M / 0.2FT 20MIN
ARENA COVE CA 38.9N 123.7W 0633Z 0.32M / 1.1FT 06MIN
WINTER HARBOUR BC 50.5N 128.0W 0413Z 0.23M / 0.8FT 30MIN
LANGARA POINT BC 54.2N 133.1W 0424Z 0.20M / 0.7FT 26MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.


A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS

1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012

MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$
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#1136062 - 28/10/2012 22:02 Re: Tsunami [Re: crikey]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Quote:
REPORTS OF 4FT OSCILLATIONS CONTINUING AT WAILOA HARBOR NEAR HILO
ON THE BIG ISLAND

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
HONOLULU OAHU 21.3N 157.9W 0903Z 0.15M / 0.5FT 12MIN
MOKUOLOE OAHU 21.4N 157.8W 0858Z 0.08M / 0.2FT 08MIN
MIDWAY 28.2N 177.4W 0923Z 0.09M / 0.3FT 10MIN
HILO HAWAII 19.7N 155.1W 0853Z 0.37M / 1.2FT 16MIN[b]
KAWAIHAE HAWAII 20.0N 155.8W 0931Z 0.43M / 1.4FT 08MIN
KAHULUI MAUI 20.9N 156.5W 0907Z 0.76M / 2.5FT 12MIN
WAIANAE HI 21.4N 158.2W 0855Z 0.16M / 0.6FT 06MIN
HALEIWA HI 21.6N 158.1W 0844Z 0.43M / 1.4FT 10MIN
HANALEI HI 22.2N 159.5W 0843Z 0.17M / 0.6FT 22MIN
MAKAPU`U HI 21.3N 157.7W 0849Z 0.41M / 1.3FT 08MIN


Again, the warning system is poorly designed and lack of sufficient information. There appears to be confused about 4ft as described in oscillations and the actual data says 1.2ft. By the way, Hilo is nowhere near the populated island of Oahu which that has been recorded under 1ft.

This warning has been incredible overestimate the the scripting of the event. Overestimate leads to improper evacuation and media hype. I am looking at a very minor tsunami event and everyone is evacuating it. Think about it. People evacuating over a less than 1ft wave heights in accordance to nearby gauges and the gauges has been reported on its way to Hawaii?

EDIT: Just reported that they are not going to give all clear until the sunrise! That is incredibly shocking effort from emergency managers and disaster group in respect with tsunami warning centre. There has been no significant damage nor loss of live or property since 1030pm Hawaii time. Tsunami never last more than two hours. I can't believe they are wasting their times.


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 22:05)
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#1136063 - 28/10/2012 22:13 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
EDIT2: Tsunami warning cancellation. Strong currents will continue.

So, I am not happy with this result.


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 22:15)
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#1136071 - 28/10/2012 22:37 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23536
Loc: Townsville
Better to be safe than sorry. No big drama, they live in a place where it's not uncommon. It's great they have such a GOOD warning system.
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#1136074 - 28/10/2012 22:44 Re: Tsunami [Re: Dawgggg]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24780
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
i dont understand why your not happy mathew? an earthquake occured, modeling showed a tsunami was created, a warning was issued, it didnt eventuate as bad as expected, should be a great result! its tough science, and so is day to day forecasting of weather, its life, it happens. least we didnt see a repeat of 2004 and 2010.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1136079 - 28/10/2012 23:01 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Not happy that 800,000 people evacuated for this non existence event. I would rather feel sorry than being safe because there are resources of reporting buoys out in Pacific Ocean which that can record height of the waves. All of those stations has it under 70cm which appears to be well below danger level (danger level is 3ft and up). Its such a waste of money to prepare, especially for those 800,000 people. Resulted in tiny microscopic tsunami with lack of resources and poor media hype. I am glad I saw there are plenty people hanging around the beaches and that enjoying their life on a regular basis. Thus they ignore media hype which have these common myths, as well poorly designed tsunami warning immediate threat advisory. As outlined above in my previous post, of those data collection of reporting buoys. It has showed that none of those stations reported significant.

Disaster management is very difficult effort because of the resources does control the effort of media hyping and poor emergency management. It good to see the Hawaii has an awesome emergency planning to get things sorted as a great effort. However, this case has failed because the media case is causing significant damage in the economy and as well causing psychological distress to those people who has been anxious and panic.

If I were the chief manage of Pacific Tsunami warning centre, I would not succeed evacuation procedures unless there are reporting buoys which has wave height greater than 3ft on the way to Hawaii from the quake epicentre in northwest coast of Canada. Thus, reported buoys has it under 1ft along the coast of BC, OR and CA and those oceanic buoys I would not let the evacuation to go ahead. I know this sounds very dangerous, but why just go out and waste time for nothing? People going to regret after spending a lot of money on gas, food, water and other resources for a false alarm?


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 23:05)
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#1136081 - 28/10/2012 23:12 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
Cheers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 1093
Loc: sevenhills nsw
Originally Posted By: Mick10
i dont understand why your not happy mathew? an earthquake occured, modeling showed a tsunami was created, a warning was issued, it didnt eventuate as bad as expected, should be a great result! its tough science, and so is day to day forecasting of weather, its life, it happens. least we didnt see a repeat of 2004 and 2010.

I agree with you Mick.
Mathew
You are just being silly.

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#1136082 - 28/10/2012 23:20 Re: Tsunami [Re: Cheers]
RoadkillNZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2011
Posts: 362
Loc: Jimboomba, Qld
Quote:
All of those stations has it under 70cm which appears to be well below danger level


Quote:
NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.


And from wiki about Tsunamis -

Quote:
While everyday wind waves have a wavelength (from crest to crest) of about 100 metres (330 ft) and a height of roughly 2 metres (6.6 ft), a tsunami in the deep ocean has a wavelength of about 200 kilometres (120 mi). Such a wave travels at well over 800 kilometres per hour (500 mph), but owing to the enormous wavelength the wave oscillation at any given point takes 20 or 30 minutes to complete a cycle and has an amplitude of only about 1 metre (3.3 ft).[25] This makes tsunamis difficult to detect over deep water, where ships are unable to feel their passage.


But at the end of the day I have the confidence that the warning centres balance everything into consideration before issuing warnings, and THEY felt there was a crediable risk doing the job that they do day in and day out. Sometimes things are worse or better than warned about, but at least there is that warning system in place in the first place.

Quote:
I am glad I saw there are plenty people hanging around the beaches and that enjoying their life on a regular basis.


And would of you been as glad if the waves were worse than they were and those people ended up not having much of a life to enjoy ?



Edited by RoadkillNZ (28/10/2012 23:21)
Edit Reason: Forgot to add a quote mark
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www.jimboombaweather.com.au

Wind is under reported because it is sheltered by trees.

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#1136107 - 29/10/2012 09:07 Re: Tsunami [Re: RoadkillNZ]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1978
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
Matthew, people prefer to err on the side of caution - rather than staying put and getting too complacent. Overall, the technology is pretty good and lucky it lead to a non event.
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#1136112 - 29/10/2012 09:28 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 115
Matthew It is very easy to sit at home and pass judgement based on the limited info you have available.
The authorities did what they did based on information at hand and knowing THEIR geological situation.

It is better to have people evacuate early and have no major Tsumani than it is to try to evacuate people when you can see it off the coast.

I only hope Matthew when put in this position you make the right decision. Because from reading your posts you seem overly confident in your Tsunami prediction skills.

Cheers,

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#1136120 - 29/10/2012 10:09 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
RoadkillNZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2011
Posts: 362
Loc: Jimboomba, Qld
Originally Posted By: MathewTownsend
My professor in disaster studies will be not happy about this result.


I am curious, what did your disaster studies professor have to say about it in the end?
_________________________
Weather at Jimboomba from the place opposite mine (So I don't have to fix my weather gauges) -
www.jimboombaweather.com.au

Wind is under reported because it is sheltered by trees.

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