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#1136128 - 29/10/2012 10:33 Re: Tsunami [Re: RoadkillNZ]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14154
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Matthew has Aspergers which makes it impossible for him to have any empathy with any one or a group including the entire population of Hawaii. So he sometimes comes across as a bit of a fwit. The warningw as issued to evacuate, if they had cancelled it halfway through the process they would have had a situation which could have dengerated into mass panic. Something that they avoided but which could have occured with mixed messages going out to the general population.

Not only that but masses of real life information would have been gleaned from what happened and in this case although the danger was real it didn't have a huge impact. Think of it as an impromtu practice drill.

I wouldn't be too worried about extending the warning period for several hours until daylight as it the reduces the risks off people panicing, makes driving safer, and allows a whole day in daylight to get yourself sorted out and back into a normal routine and gives the authorities some extra hours to plan exactly what they are going to do.

Doing anything like moving masses of people at night is 100% difficult as the darkness increases peoples fear factor, they become cautious and slow down because they don't know what is happening around them. It just takes one accident to block a major road and halt the entire process. Then mayhem would have resulted.

_________________________
202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
2017 Total 694mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







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#1136129 - 29/10/2012 10:35 Re: Tsunami [Re: RoadkillNZ]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2556
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Was glued to the Hawaiin news last night. You could see currents in the waters, but thank goodness there was no major impact.
Credit to the authorities there for being cautious - acting on the side of safety.
The bouy 51407 is still displaying some erratic movement/readings. The currents/sea level must still be playing up there.

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#1136132 - 29/10/2012 10:44 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
adam93 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/08/2011
Posts: 247
Loc: mission beach qld
Was glued all night to the tv as well. the authorities did their job well and it was the right call to evacuate. A 3 ft tsunami would go in 2 blocks from the ocean. its better to be safe then sorry. the only problem is with all these false alarms, one day when they will get a tsunami, a lot of people will be so sick of these false alarms, and wont worry about evacuating.

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#1136143 - 29/10/2012 11:13 Re: Tsunami [Re: adam93]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
It got nothing to do with my conditions based on this! I'm not listening to that negative comment.

Since I observed the gauges with reference of recorded wave heights according to their geological website where those gauges are located in between the quake centre and Hawaii. Those gauges has recorded between 0.5ft to 1.0ft wave heights. In conjunction to actual records of 1.5ft in Hawaii alone was the effects of high tide! There are no significant threat for entire time. Believing the media is very difficult thing, especially when comes to disaster management. Media has it all over the moon looking at the waves near Waikiki beach all night making fun of those normal surf waves which appears look like a tsunami. There are lot of people on the beach, including a couple swimming whose does not care about the media falsification of information during the timeframe.

Initially, the media has it said 5 to 6ft of waves to hit Hawaii as high probability. There are no resources, zero efforts academically and scientifically saying any estimated wave heights in accordance to impact Hawaii. Since the records of 0.02 to 1.02ft has been recorded in all gauges since the quake centre, it is virtually impossible for Hawaii to experience waves greater than 1.2ft because of their geographical location is twice further than those other gauges.

Here a brief summary of this event in terms of positives and negatives.

Positives: Emergency management in Hawaii is very professional, they did proper evacuation needs, safety procedures and thereof. They did a good thing. Also, there are no tsunami impact that would likely to destroy lives and properties, even though if those people stood still on the beach. In different perspective, it is good thing that people who did not waste their time managing for safety, going berserk like the majority of the public are getting to gas stations during massive traffic jams, buying food and water.

Negatives: False alarm evacuation is very risky business. Hawaii is likely to cause economic losses as a result of this. Also, psychological distress for those people might need to see counselling services as a result of this non existence event. This cause has been fuelled by media hype and poor warning design from the Pacific Tsunami warning centre (the snippets I copied last night; the information on that page is completely insufficient and less detailed). However, the information on their warning system wasn't relevant to major tsunami impact because; 1. there are no wave height estimates for Hawaii in due respect to the recorded wave heights of the buoys before arriving Hawaii, 2. Information was mainly to cause panic people in conjunction of saying immediate danger, threatening life and properties etc.

Disaster management is very dangerous business. More than 99% of the time the cause of damage is from the media. Which the media has caused psychological distress to the people in accordance of false alarms. I highly applaud to the efforts of Hawaii emergency response committee to take good control of evacuation procedures and getting to safety. However, I DO NOT applaud to the efforts of Pacific Tsunami warning centre because they contain insufficient data collection, inappropriate texting without evidence of danger and as well resulting 800,000 to evacuate for non existent event without backup.

EDIT: This is what I have taught by disaster studies course here at the uni. If no respect for this. Do not bother posting negative comments.


Edited by MathewTownsend (29/10/2012 11:14)
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#1136154 - 29/10/2012 11:40 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1620
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
I would rather be running up a hill than getting washed out to sea end of story Mathew.
That is why i would not want you in emergancy management. You have to think beyond numbers ,if they made the wrong call you would not be saying told you so . Thats what their there for to warn us .cheers Doug
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#1136155 - 29/10/2012 11:44 Re: Tsunami [Re: ozone doug]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2050
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Matthew, I just hope that you are going to take any warnings in the US and heed them. People who have to dig someone out of avalanches/pull them out of rivers tend to get cranky and rightfully so at idiots who disregard the warnings. That is if the person is lucky enough to survive their stupidity in ignoring warnings.

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#1136162 - 29/10/2012 11:59 Re: Tsunami [Re: bundybear]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Nevermind. I give up.


Edited by MathewTownsend (29/10/2012 12:00)
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#1136163 - 29/10/2012 12:00 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 115
Matthew,

The PTWC judged that there was a credible threat and they acted accordingly with the information they had at the time.

Please remember (I can only assume) that the PWTC is not a bunch of people using the internet to get there info, instead they have buoys, computer simulation models, a team of scientists etc. etc.

In regards to the Media coverage I to was watching the feed from KITV, and although I normally agree with the media in terms of over hyping, this time in my opinion they were sensible and clearly mentioned many times what was being seen on the beach video feed was normal waves not the Tsunami.

[/quote] Also, there are no tsunami impact that would likely to destroy lives and properties, even though if those people stood still on the beach [/quote]

It is not just the land, moored marine vessels don't respond well to being tied up in marinas. There is a Navy base (from my recollections) on Hawaii which would have been considered I assume.

[/quote] I DO NOT applaud to the efforts of Pacific Tsunami warning centre because they contain insufficient data collection, inappropriate texting without evidence of danger and as well resulting 800,000 to evacuate for non existent event without backup. [/quote]

Again this is only your perception (which may/may not be accurate) It is not the PTWC's primary role to include all information when making a prediction, in emergencies (such as last night) giving clear nontechnical information to the media and goverments etc. would be the goal. You have to realise that a fair proportion of people didn't go looking at the website to make their own minds all they want is a go/no go decision.

Similarly when cyclone warnings are put out they don't generally get too technical when delivering to the general public via the media.

Cheers,

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#1136166 - 29/10/2012 12:05 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
RoadkillNZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2011
Posts: 362
Loc: Jimboomba, Qld
The media did not issue the warning from PTWC, nor control the authorities who did the official evacuation.

It would be like getting a bushfire evacuation message and choosing not to evacuate because you do not think it is going to happen and it is just media hype, sure in hindsight you may of ended up being safe if the fire does not end up being as bad as expected, but would you really want to take the risk because you think it is just media hype
_________________________
Weather at Jimboomba from the place opposite mine (So I don't have to fix my weather gauges) -
www.jimboombaweather.com.au

Wind is under reported because it is sheltered by trees.

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#1136170 - 29/10/2012 12:17 Re: Tsunami [Re: bundybear]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1884
Loc: Semaphore SA
The media hype is unavoidable, not always accurate...but it does help spread word.

Do they put the warning out after an earthquake they think has potential to cause a tsunami occurs? Or do they wait for data from buoys and such? I'm sure the system isn't perfect yet.

I'd rather deal with false alarms and be safe than get a delayed warning (or none at all) - just incase smile


Edited by Chris #3 (29/10/2012 12:19)
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#1136186 - 29/10/2012 13:23 Re: Tsunami [Re: Chris #3]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14154
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Matthew you have zero experience in a real life, population based, panic situation and all the University learning in the world goes straight out the widow when confronted by real life. Nothing, ever goes to plan. Not in life, in war, not in natural disasters in fact not anywhere.

A simple fact you have repeatedly failed to grasp. People do the dumbest things under the stress of a natural or man made disaster.

I was not attacking you, mearly stating a fact and explaining to people who don't know you why your comments make you look like an uncaring fwit.

You cannot help it but you have zero ability to see anything except what you have been taught as 100% utter truth, when the real world is vastly different from what some numpty with a degree is waffling about in a classroom.

You can plan for anything, have a million contingency plans but they will never be completely effective so long as there is a human element built into it. People do strange things under stress and are completely unpredictable.

Forcing people to stay until day light had several effects not the least of which was allowing people time to come to terms with what had happened and reduced the panic that infects large groups in these situations.

_________________________
202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
2017 Total 694mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







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#1136189 - 29/10/2012 13:44 Re: Tsunami [Re: SBT]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23536
Loc: Townsville
Matthew you need to calm down, I highly doubt this is what JCU is teaching you. Remember you are on a online forum that anyone can see. Including future employers.....if I was hiring you Matthew and saw what you have been writing I would not hire you.

Have a think before you post, you are the only one against the warning system probably in the world. Chill the hell out.


Edited by OzCyChaser Trav (29/10/2012 13:45)
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#1136197 - 29/10/2012 14:33 Re: Tsunami [Re: Dawgggg]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24780
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: MathewTownsend

Disaster management is very difficult effort because of the resources does control the effort of media hyping and poor emergency management. It good to see the Hawaii has an awesome emergency planning to get things sorted as a great effort. However, this case has failed because the media case is causing significant damage in the economy and as well causing psychological distress to those people who has been anxious and panic.

evacuation sirens were sounding across hawaii before most people would have even switched on the tv or radio. thats why american states have sirens for this purpose, same goes for tornado sirens. remembering that this was occuring at 10pm at night, if you were asleep you wouldnt know about it unless you were woken up by the sirens. why put all the blame on the media! most of the media get their information direct from the warning centre's themselves, not saying the media is always 100% correct (cough, cough Garry Youngberry!!) but imo they did the correct thing in sounding the evac sirens first.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1136216 - 29/10/2012 15:25 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 110
Matthew,

Knowing someone who went through the Boxing Day tsunami, and the ongoing trauma that they suffered as a result of this - I advocate early warning signs/signals/anything. Wait until you've seen someone break down when they saw on the news the toowoomba 'inland' tsunami last year, bringing back memories. Someone who will never go near the beach again. To see someone turn from the happiest person you will ever meet, to someone who still suffers to this day - is not something I would wish upon anyone. Especially, because the 'possibility' of 'incorrect' data will cause 'mass evacuations'. That is a fact of life.

Your theories, possibilities, and plausible outcomes are exactly that. POSSIBILITIES. Anything can happen.

Just like predicting the weather, tsunami prediction is not an exact science.

I can safely assure you, that the people in Hawaii (who as history shows have been impacted a number of times throughout history by tsunami's) do heed these warnings.

Matthew, I end it with this. If you are ever in a situation where a 'warning' has been issued and you believe it wrong - go and stand on the beach. I will however be going to the nearest hill/high point and sitting it out.

Unfortunately, we live in an age of reliance. Reliance on the media to disperse information. Gone are the day's where people would actually take heed and self evacuate.

Feel free to reply (I actually expect it).
_________________________
www.warnerweather.com.au

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#1170663 - 06/02/2013 12:49 Re: Tsunami [Re: zuldjan]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
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“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1170666 - 06/02/2013 13:07 Re: Tsunami [Re: Arnost]
adam93 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/08/2011
Posts: 247
Loc: mission beach qld
hmmm...... new zealand are on warning, but we are closer and only on watch. sky news??? haha

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#1170669 - 06/02/2013 13:11 Re: Tsunami [Re: adam93]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS.

http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TSUPAC.2013.02.06.0149
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1170672 - 06/02/2013 13:15 Re: Tsunami [Re: Arnost]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10146
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
No Threat Bulletin issued by JATWC on BOM 45 minutes ago:

IDY68009

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


MEDIA:

NO USE OF STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL (SEWS)

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS INFORMATION IF REFERRING TO THE EARTHQUAKE IN NEWS REPORTS.

********************************************************************************


NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO AUSTRALIA

Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at 12:30 PM EDT on

Wednesday 06 February 2013


********************************************************************************

SUMMARY:

An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.9 has occurred at 12:12 PM EDT on Wednesday

06 February 2013 near SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION.


THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES.


For further information check the Bureau's website www.bom.gov.au/tsunami or call

1300 TSUNAMI (1300 878 6264).


No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.

********************************************************************************

DETAILS:

An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.9 has occurred at 12:12 PM EDT on Wednesday

06 February 2013 near SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION (latitude 11.220S, longitude

164.730E). The JATWC has assessed that there is NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE

AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES from this earthquake.


No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.


FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:

Call 1300 TSUNAMI (1300 878 6264)

Check the Bureau's web site: www.bom.gov.au/tsunami


********************************************************************************

The JATWC is operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience

Australia

********************************************************************************

http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/index.shtml
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2017 Rainfall: 2.6mm (Sep Avg. 56.6mm) // September 2017 Raindays: 1 (Sep Avg. 8.4 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1248.2mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1153.5mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 106 (Jan-Sep Avg. 102.0 raindays)

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#1170675 - 06/02/2013 13:31 Re: Tsunami [Re: Seabreeze]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
Media reports damage at the Santa Cruz Islands and Solomon Islands area
In theory, there may be a tsunami moving slowly towards Australia.

But, if this has happened it will take 1-2 hours to reach the coastline and BOM will be able to observe this happening from ocean buoys and issue the appropriate warnings.

Officially, BOM says there is no threat to the Australian coastline at this time.
However I would be cautious about swimming or other activities in the water because of changing currents which are likely to occur as a result of the large underwater earthquake that has occurred

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#1170676 - 06/02/2013 13:36 Re: Tsunami [Re: Steven]
adam93 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/08/2011
Posts: 247
Loc: mission beach qld
definately agree with you steven, the bom will be watching VERY closely, still thought it was a bit premature to say there WILL BE NO THREAT TO AUSTRALIA

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