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#1111928 - 29/06/2012 17:03 Tsunami
Lindsay Knowles Offline
Moderator

Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3934
Loc: Pakenham Victoria's Storm Capi...
Please post all reports on Tsunamis here

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#1123219 - 27/08/2012 16:06 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / EL SALVADOR / HONDURAS / GUATEMALA /
PANAMA / MEXICO



Quote:
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0437Z 27 AUG 2012
COORDINATES - 12.7 NORTH 88.5 WEST
DEPTH - 54 KM
LOCATION - OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
MAGNITUDE - 7.3

EVALUATION

IT IS NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS WARNING IS
BASED ONLY ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION. AN EARTHQUAKE OF THIS
SIZE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THAT CAN
STRIKE COASTLINES IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN MINUTES
TO HOURS. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL GAUGES NEAREST THE REGION AND REPORT IF ANY
TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED. THE WARNING WILL NOT EXPAND
TO OTHER AREAS OF THE PACIFIC UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED
TO WARRANT SUCH AN EXPANSION.


http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/?region=1&id=pacific.TSUPAC.2012.08.27.0542
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#1123222 - 27/08/2012 16:30 Re: Tsunami [Re: Arnost]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
A buoy has registered a change in water height, but there is no further confirmation of a tsunami having been generated at this point.
There is no current 'watch', but the warning is an advisory one at this stage.
But can't help but feel that there must be some sea 'reaction' (of what changes I don't know) to a quake(s) of this size on the plate boundaries.
Let's hope it is minimal.

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#1123237 - 27/08/2012 18:01 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14149
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
The quake occured 54klm underground. Chances are that there hasn't been any (undersea) land surface disruption of a vertical nature so quite possibly no tsunmai can have occured. The quake could have been a horizontal slip and if this is teh case there is zero chance of a tsunmai being created.
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#1123376 - 28/08/2012 13:52 Re: Tsunami [Re: SBT]
duckweather Offline
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Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
The buoy picked up on a sea level drop within seconds and a 10cm tsunami was generated. Luckily that's all it produced given the nature of the movement. If it had have been a different movement (horizontal) - the nature/size of the tsunami may have been not so good.

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#1123392 - 28/08/2012 14:43 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
LQQKN Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/08/2007
Posts: 1438
Loc: , tweed coast
lucky this time. tho with all the activity wouldnt wanna be in LA at the moment. might be some fun surf from the activity around today,


Edited by LQQKN (28/08/2012 14:44)

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#1124319 - 01/09/2012 16:38 Re: Tsunami [Re: LQQKN]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
This a short, but concise report on the Philippines quakes so far.
Tsunami after quake off Philippines

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#1124359 - 01/09/2012 20:42 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14149
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Subluction (sudden releases of pressure due to Vertical movement) causes Tsunamis to form, along with underwater landslides, meteor impacts etc.

Horizontal movements can not cause tsunamis - it is physically impossible to happen that way - see http://www.smh.com.au/environment/why-earthquake-did-not-cause-a-tsunami-20120412-1wvik.html for clarification.

Basic geology.
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202mm April 2017
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2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
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#1124361 - 01/09/2012 21:14 Re: Tsunami [Re: SBT]
duckweather Offline
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Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Hi Mike.
Apparently though, Renato Solidum, chief of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, reported a tsunami of 20 inches in height came ashore on Siargao Island. A buoy in close proximaty, registered an almost immediate drop in water height; faster than is usually recorded for the expected time period.
I couldn't help but feel and imagine that such a large quake, though not the 'normal' major tsunami producing 'type', would have some effect on the local water levels.
Cheers, Duck wink

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#1125118 - 06/09/2012 01:43 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Major quake occurred with epicentre in Costa Rica in Central America (south of Mexico) at 12:42am AEST. Magnitude detected by USGS was 7.6 (revised down from the preliminary 7.9) with depth of 46km.

The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre has issued a No Threat bulletin for Australia at time of writing this.

However, for areas close to the quake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre has them currently under a tsunami warning as follows:

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWSISSUED AT 1450Z 05 SEP 2012

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. ... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ... A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COSTA RICA / PANAMA / NICARAGUA / EL SALVADOR / HONDURAS /MEXICO / COLOMBIA / ECUADOR / GUATEMALA / PERU

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHILE

It's unknown yet whether or not tsunami was caused but will know soon when readings from tidal gauges and the DART tsunami detection buoys come in. Here's a map showing possible max tsunami wave heights (in metres) generated by JRC modeling:


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#1129840 - 01/10/2012 11:03 Re: Tsunami [Re: Ken Kato]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6753
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
No Tsunami Watch or Warning for the Queensland coast line as of let for the 7.3 Earthquake just happen this morning.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2012gdap.php


Edited by mat (01/10/2012 11:08)
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#1136000 - 28/10/2012 15:09 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mathew]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Magnitude 7.7 quake off the SW coast of British Columbia in Canada at 2:04pm AEDT with depth of 17.5km. There's a local tsunami warning/advisory in effect but no Pacific-wide warning, nor any threat to Australia at this stage.

Output from JRC's tsunami model showing suggested wave heights to 3hrs 40mins from quake time (the model is still running):


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#1136019 - 28/10/2012 17:59 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mathew]
Eclectic Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2011
Posts: 39
Loc: Carina, Brisbane, Qld
Tsunami warning issued in Hawaii- expected 10.20 pm Hawaii time. Live stream from Kohn2 Hawaii- http://www.khon2.com/content/mediacenter/livestream.aspx

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#1136020 - 28/10/2012 18:04 Re: Tsunami [Re: Eclectic]
Noname Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
How funny they go about. Stupid media beat up. Evacuation really? There no such waves has reported more than 23cm! Hawaii is no Salt Lake, whereas it is below sea level....

Facebook gone berserk about this, people panicking and stuff about this tsunami. I told them, in honest criteria there is no danger. 20cm wave would been lower than 10cm by reaching Hawaii. Media has it estimate of 6feet hitting the windward side after 10pm tonight, 6feet really? Thats so much bigger, even five times higher than the height of the waves been recorded in BC. Hawaii is over 4500miles away.....
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#1136023 - 28/10/2012 18:15 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
Noname Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
EDIT: People aren't being careful about the media of this event. That website link you gave us, is one of them causing panic in preparation. In tsunami warning, there is NO such height estimated for impact for Hawaii. Since there are records of height (23cm maximum) off BC coast in Canada. This case, it will be virtually impossible to generate a wave that far travel to Hawaii.
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#1136024 - 28/10/2012 18:21 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads

Viewers are telling us that the warning sirens are going off in Hilo now #HITsunami
half a minute ago
https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=KHONnews
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#1136025 - 28/10/2012 18:24 Re: Tsunami [Re: crikey]
Noname Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Media bashing yet again.

30cm waves is dangerous for HI? CA has it 33cm height recorded. How possible HI to get above that when it is over 4000miles away? Stupid poorly management. My professor in disaster studies will be not happy about this result. People are wasting time.
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#1136028 - 28/10/2012 18:54 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
The Queen Charlotte Islands are still copping some serious movement.
The direction of the wave energy shown on the charts Ken has put up in the above posts seems a bit concerning for Hawaii.
When the main quake hit, I had a quick look at the buoys in Hawaii and Canada both responded at about the same time. So maybe the impact of the Canada quake at that moment was affecting the Hawaii buoy too...?
Time will tell how Hawaii is affected..I think their warnings for their communities are reasonable and relevant just in case Hawaii is to be impacted in some way...I know I would duck up a nearby hill just in case..to be safe...

KHONnews 6-7 ft wave possible for Kahului, Maui, 3-4 ft for Oahu, possible 4 ft for Hilo #HITsunami


Edited by duckweather (28/10/2012 18:58)
Edit Reason: extra

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#1136030 - 28/10/2012 19:06 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24716
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
friend in hawaii is reporting the sirens going off non stop.
lead article on 7news just now showing widespread traffic problems across the islands.
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#1136032 - 28/10/2012 19:10 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
Moonstruck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2010
Posts: 755
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#1136033 - 28/10/2012 19:11 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
The news on TV just stated the waves could be as high as two meters? Time will tell.

The waves do not necessarily need to be too high to be destructive because of the force and volume of water travelling with/behind the wave.
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#1136038 - 28/10/2012 19:16 Re: Tsunami [Re: Moonstruck]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL
------------------------ ----- ------ ------- -----------
DART46419PT NW SEATTLE 48.8N 129.6W 0345UTC 00.2FT/00.07M
CRAIG AK 55.5N 133.1W 0446UTC 00.3FT/00.10M
PORT ALEXANDER AK 56.2N 134.6W 0533UTC 00.5FT/00.14M
WINTER HARBOUR BC 50.7N 128.3W 0400UTC 00.5FT/00.16M
SITKA AK 57.1N 135.3W 0425UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
ELFIN COVE AK 58.2N 136.3W 0448UTC 00.2FT/00.07M
SITKA AK 57.1N 135.3W 0440UTC 00.3FT/00.10M
YAKUTAT AK 59.5N 139.7W 0523UTC 00.4FT/00.12M
CHARLESTON OR 43.3N 124.3W 0524UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
GARIBALDI OR 45.6N 123.9W 0515UTC 00.2FT/00.05M
LA PUSH WA 47.5N 124.4W 0448UTC 00.4FT/00.13M
NEAH BAY WA 48.4N 124.6W 0530UTC 00.3FT/00.10M
PORT ORFORD OR 42.7N 124.5W 0658UTC 00.6FT/00.18M
SOUTH BEACH OR 44.6N 124.0W 0524UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
WESTPORT WA 46.9N 124.1W 0550UTC 00.3FT/00.10M
YAKUTAT AK 59.5N 139.7W 0520UTC 00.3FT/00.08M
ARENA COVE CA 38.9N 123.7W 0637UTC 01.3FT/00.41M
CRESCENT CITY CA 41.7N 124.2W 0649UTC 01.3FT/00.40M
NORTH SPIT CA 40.8N 124.2W 0626UTC 00.5FT/00.15M
SEWARD AK 60.1N 149.4W 0600UTC 00.5FT/00.16M
MONTEREY HARBOR CA 36.6N 121.9W 0727UTC 00.4FT/00.13M
SAN FRANCISCO CA 37.8N 122.5W 0646UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
KODIAK AK 57.7N 152.5W 0650UTC 00.4FT/00.13M
SAND POINT AK 55.3N 160.5W 0705UTC 00.3FT/00.08M

Recorded wave heights for all locations above listed are closer to the epicentre. As waves over 6ft for Hawaii is an example of media beatup. There are no such efficient valid resources of 6foot waves for HI. Its very minor tsunami. More like changing your small creeks within the bay patterns.


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 19:19)
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#1136042 - 28/10/2012 19:49 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24716
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
abc news 24 and channel 7 are live with hawaiian news (in qld atleast anyway)
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April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
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#1136044 - 28/10/2012 19:58 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1971
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
I know the west coast of California is overdue for a biggie. Hope this is not the start of a sequence. And... Hawaii is half way between the west coast of Canada and east coast of Australia. Something to bear in mind for big big tsunamis.
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#1136045 - 28/10/2012 20:04 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10101
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Mick10
abc news 24 and channel 7 are live with hawaiian news (in qld atleast anyway)

Yep, ABC News 24 is showing Hawaiian News with live tsunami coverage here as well. Prime is still showing Border Security here though (will be Airways in a minute or so).
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#1136050 - 28/10/2012 20:27 Re: Tsunami [Re: Seabreeze]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24716
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
ch7 qld being an hour behind went back to the brisbane studio just before 7pm and have continued on with sunday night now.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1136054 - 28/10/2012 20:59 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
EDIT: I can't be bothered to write this. I was right in first place.


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 21:05)
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#1136055 - 28/10/2012 21:13 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2030
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Despite it being a bit of a fizzer, so far, I hope that people were intelligent enough to listen to the warnings, evacuate when asked.

Even if it proves that in this case it wasn't necessary it will be invaluable to them in lifes lessons, eg to keep an evacuation kit handy, keep important documents ready to leave home with, ensure they have family plans on where they will meet if separated at the evac time. Which are the best routes to take, how long it will take them to be out of the danger zone.

Only an idiot would not follow evac directions or listen to people who say "It won't happen here".

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#1136056 - 28/10/2012 21:21 Re: Tsunami [Re: bundybear]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
For relevant information please see here: http://ptwc.weather.gov/

This website has no significant danger from the waves that can be damaging to the life and property in accordance to the guage reports.
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#1136060 - 28/10/2012 21:45 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
The web site you have suggested matthew ..says
quote
"URGENT ACTION"
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

?? The authorities are obviously concerned..
-------------------

Full report below from that link posted below
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=hawaii.TSUHWX.2012.10.28.1022
---------------------------
WEHW40 PHEB 281022
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-281222-
/O.CON.PHEB.TS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 9
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1216 AM HST SUN OCT 28 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WARNING SUPPLEMENT

A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0504 PM HST 27 OCT 2012
COORDINATES - 52.8 NORTH 131.8 WEST
LOCATION - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.7 MOMENT

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

REPORTS OF 4FT OSCILLATIONS CONTINUING AT WAILOA HARBOR NEAR HILO
ON THE BIG ISLAND


GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
HONOLULU OAHU 21.3N 157.9W 0903Z 0.15M / 0.5FT 12MIN
MOKUOLOE OAHU 21.4N 157.8W 0858Z 0.08M / 0.2FT 08MIN
MIDWAY 28.2N 177.4W 0923Z 0.09M / 0.3FT 10MIN
HILO HAWAII 19.7N 155.1W 0853Z 0.37M / 1.2FT 16MIN
KAWAIHAE HAWAII 20.0N 155.8W 0931Z 0.43M / 1.4FT 08MIN
KAHULUI MAUI 20.9N 156.5W 0907Z 0.76M / 2.5FT 12MIN
WAIANAE HI 21.4N 158.2W 0855Z 0.16M / 0.6FT 06MIN
HALEIWA HI 21.6N 158.1W 0844Z 0.43M / 1.4FT 10MIN
HANALEI HI 22.2N 159.5W 0843Z 0.17M / 0.6FT 22MIN
MAKAPU`U HI 21.3N 157.7W 0849Z 0.41M / 1.3FT 08MIN
DART 46410 57.6N 143.8W 0428Z 0.03M / 0.1FT 32MIN
DART 46409 55.3N 148.5W 0444Z 0.02M / 0.1FT 38MIN
DART 46403 52.7N 156.9W 0528Z 0.02M / 0.1FT 26MIN
DART 46402 51.1N 164.0W 0609Z 0.02M / 0.1FT 24MIN
DART 46404 45.9N 128.8W 0423Z 0.05M / 0.1FT 30MIN
DART 46407 42.6N 128.9W 0456Z 0.07M / 0.2FT 28MIN
SITKA AK 57.1N 135.3W 0542Z 0.09M / 0.3FT 30MIN
CRESCENT CITY CA 41.7N 124.2W 0736Z 0.42M / 1.4FT 24MIN
DART 46419 48.8N 129.6W 0344Z 0.07M / 0.2FT 20MIN
ARENA COVE CA 38.9N 123.7W 0633Z 0.32M / 1.1FT 06MIN
WINTER HARBOUR BC 50.5N 128.0W 0413Z 0.23M / 0.8FT 30MIN
LANGARA POINT BC 54.2N 133.1W 0424Z 0.20M / 0.7FT 26MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.


A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS

1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012

MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$
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#1136062 - 28/10/2012 22:02 Re: Tsunami [Re: crikey]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Quote:
REPORTS OF 4FT OSCILLATIONS CONTINUING AT WAILOA HARBOR NEAR HILO
ON THE BIG ISLAND

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
HONOLULU OAHU 21.3N 157.9W 0903Z 0.15M / 0.5FT 12MIN
MOKUOLOE OAHU 21.4N 157.8W 0858Z 0.08M / 0.2FT 08MIN
MIDWAY 28.2N 177.4W 0923Z 0.09M / 0.3FT 10MIN
HILO HAWAII 19.7N 155.1W 0853Z 0.37M / 1.2FT 16MIN[b]
KAWAIHAE HAWAII 20.0N 155.8W 0931Z 0.43M / 1.4FT 08MIN
KAHULUI MAUI 20.9N 156.5W 0907Z 0.76M / 2.5FT 12MIN
WAIANAE HI 21.4N 158.2W 0855Z 0.16M / 0.6FT 06MIN
HALEIWA HI 21.6N 158.1W 0844Z 0.43M / 1.4FT 10MIN
HANALEI HI 22.2N 159.5W 0843Z 0.17M / 0.6FT 22MIN
MAKAPU`U HI 21.3N 157.7W 0849Z 0.41M / 1.3FT 08MIN


Again, the warning system is poorly designed and lack of sufficient information. There appears to be confused about 4ft as described in oscillations and the actual data says 1.2ft. By the way, Hilo is nowhere near the populated island of Oahu which that has been recorded under 1ft.

This warning has been incredible overestimate the the scripting of the event. Overestimate leads to improper evacuation and media hype. I am looking at a very minor tsunami event and everyone is evacuating it. Think about it. People evacuating over a less than 1ft wave heights in accordance to nearby gauges and the gauges has been reported on its way to Hawaii?

EDIT: Just reported that they are not going to give all clear until the sunrise! That is incredibly shocking effort from emergency managers and disaster group in respect with tsunami warning centre. There has been no significant damage nor loss of live or property since 1030pm Hawaii time. Tsunami never last more than two hours. I can't believe they are wasting their times.


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 22:05)
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#1136063 - 28/10/2012 22:13 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
EDIT2: Tsunami warning cancellation. Strong currents will continue.

So, I am not happy with this result.


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 22:15)
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#1136071 - 28/10/2012 22:37 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Better to be safe than sorry. No big drama, they live in a place where it's not uncommon. It's great they have such a GOOD warning system.
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#1136074 - 28/10/2012 22:44 Re: Tsunami [Re: Dawgggg]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24716
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
i dont understand why your not happy mathew? an earthquake occured, modeling showed a tsunami was created, a warning was issued, it didnt eventuate as bad as expected, should be a great result! its tough science, and so is day to day forecasting of weather, its life, it happens. least we didnt see a repeat of 2004 and 2010.
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April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
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#1136079 - 28/10/2012 23:01 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Not happy that 800,000 people evacuated for this non existence event. I would rather feel sorry than being safe because there are resources of reporting buoys out in Pacific Ocean which that can record height of the waves. All of those stations has it under 70cm which appears to be well below danger level (danger level is 3ft and up). Its such a waste of money to prepare, especially for those 800,000 people. Resulted in tiny microscopic tsunami with lack of resources and poor media hype. I am glad I saw there are plenty people hanging around the beaches and that enjoying their life on a regular basis. Thus they ignore media hype which have these common myths, as well poorly designed tsunami warning immediate threat advisory. As outlined above in my previous post, of those data collection of reporting buoys. It has showed that none of those stations reported significant.

Disaster management is very difficult effort because of the resources does control the effort of media hyping and poor emergency management. It good to see the Hawaii has an awesome emergency planning to get things sorted as a great effort. However, this case has failed because the media case is causing significant damage in the economy and as well causing psychological distress to those people who has been anxious and panic.

If I were the chief manage of Pacific Tsunami warning centre, I would not succeed evacuation procedures unless there are reporting buoys which has wave height greater than 3ft on the way to Hawaii from the quake epicentre in northwest coast of Canada. Thus, reported buoys has it under 1ft along the coast of BC, OR and CA and those oceanic buoys I would not let the evacuation to go ahead. I know this sounds very dangerous, but why just go out and waste time for nothing? People going to regret after spending a lot of money on gas, food, water and other resources for a false alarm?


Edited by MathewTownsend (28/10/2012 23:05)
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#1136081 - 28/10/2012 23:12 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
Cheers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 1054
Loc: sevenhills nsw
Originally Posted By: Mick10
i dont understand why your not happy mathew? an earthquake occured, modeling showed a tsunami was created, a warning was issued, it didnt eventuate as bad as expected, should be a great result! its tough science, and so is day to day forecasting of weather, its life, it happens. least we didnt see a repeat of 2004 and 2010.

I agree with you Mick.
Mathew
You are just being silly.

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#1136082 - 28/10/2012 23:20 Re: Tsunami [Re: Cheers]
RoadkillNZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2011
Posts: 362
Loc: Jimboomba, Qld
Quote:
All of those stations has it under 70cm which appears to be well below danger level


Quote:
NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.


And from wiki about Tsunamis -

Quote:
While everyday wind waves have a wavelength (from crest to crest) of about 100 metres (330 ft) and a height of roughly 2 metres (6.6 ft), a tsunami in the deep ocean has a wavelength of about 200 kilometres (120 mi). Such a wave travels at well over 800 kilometres per hour (500 mph), but owing to the enormous wavelength the wave oscillation at any given point takes 20 or 30 minutes to complete a cycle and has an amplitude of only about 1 metre (3.3 ft).[25] This makes tsunamis difficult to detect over deep water, where ships are unable to feel their passage.


But at the end of the day I have the confidence that the warning centres balance everything into consideration before issuing warnings, and THEY felt there was a crediable risk doing the job that they do day in and day out. Sometimes things are worse or better than warned about, but at least there is that warning system in place in the first place.

Quote:
I am glad I saw there are plenty people hanging around the beaches and that enjoying their life on a regular basis.


And would of you been as glad if the waves were worse than they were and those people ended up not having much of a life to enjoy ?



Edited by RoadkillNZ (28/10/2012 23:21)
Edit Reason: Forgot to add a quote mark
_________________________
Weather at Jimboomba from the place opposite mine (So I don't have to fix my weather gauges) -
www.jimboombaweather.com.au

Wind is under reported because it is sheltered by trees.

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#1136107 - 29/10/2012 09:07 Re: Tsunami [Re: RoadkillNZ]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1971
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
Matthew, people prefer to err on the side of caution - rather than staying put and getting too complacent. Overall, the technology is pretty good and lucky it lead to a non event.
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#1136112 - 29/10/2012 09:28 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 113
Matthew It is very easy to sit at home and pass judgement based on the limited info you have available.
The authorities did what they did based on information at hand and knowing THEIR geological situation.

It is better to have people evacuate early and have no major Tsumani than it is to try to evacuate people when you can see it off the coast.

I only hope Matthew when put in this position you make the right decision. Because from reading your posts you seem overly confident in your Tsunami prediction skills.

Cheers,

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#1136120 - 29/10/2012 10:09 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
RoadkillNZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2011
Posts: 362
Loc: Jimboomba, Qld
Originally Posted By: MathewTownsend
My professor in disaster studies will be not happy about this result.


I am curious, what did your disaster studies professor have to say about it in the end?
_________________________
Weather at Jimboomba from the place opposite mine (So I don't have to fix my weather gauges) -
www.jimboombaweather.com.au

Wind is under reported because it is sheltered by trees.

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#1136128 - 29/10/2012 10:33 Re: Tsunami [Re: RoadkillNZ]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14149
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Matthew has Aspergers which makes it impossible for him to have any empathy with any one or a group including the entire population of Hawaii. So he sometimes comes across as a bit of a fwit. The warningw as issued to evacuate, if they had cancelled it halfway through the process they would have had a situation which could have dengerated into mass panic. Something that they avoided but which could have occured with mixed messages going out to the general population.

Not only that but masses of real life information would have been gleaned from what happened and in this case although the danger was real it didn't have a huge impact. Think of it as an impromtu practice drill.

I wouldn't be too worried about extending the warning period for several hours until daylight as it the reduces the risks off people panicing, makes driving safer, and allows a whole day in daylight to get yourself sorted out and back into a normal routine and gives the authorities some extra hours to plan exactly what they are going to do.

Doing anything like moving masses of people at night is 100% difficult as the darkness increases peoples fear factor, they become cautious and slow down because they don't know what is happening around them. It just takes one accident to block a major road and halt the entire process. Then mayhem would have resulted.

_________________________
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2015 Total 375mm
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#1136129 - 29/10/2012 10:35 Re: Tsunami [Re: RoadkillNZ]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Was glued to the Hawaiin news last night. You could see currents in the waters, but thank goodness there was no major impact.
Credit to the authorities there for being cautious - acting on the side of safety.
The bouy 51407 is still displaying some erratic movement/readings. The currents/sea level must still be playing up there.

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#1136132 - 29/10/2012 10:44 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
adam93 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/08/2011
Posts: 247
Loc: mission beach qld
Was glued all night to the tv as well. the authorities did their job well and it was the right call to evacuate. A 3 ft tsunami would go in 2 blocks from the ocean. its better to be safe then sorry. the only problem is with all these false alarms, one day when they will get a tsunami, a lot of people will be so sick of these false alarms, and wont worry about evacuating.

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#1136143 - 29/10/2012 11:13 Re: Tsunami [Re: adam93]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
It got nothing to do with my conditions based on this! I'm not listening to that negative comment.

Since I observed the gauges with reference of recorded wave heights according to their geological website where those gauges are located in between the quake centre and Hawaii. Those gauges has recorded between 0.5ft to 1.0ft wave heights. In conjunction to actual records of 1.5ft in Hawaii alone was the effects of high tide! There are no significant threat for entire time. Believing the media is very difficult thing, especially when comes to disaster management. Media has it all over the moon looking at the waves near Waikiki beach all night making fun of those normal surf waves which appears look like a tsunami. There are lot of people on the beach, including a couple swimming whose does not care about the media falsification of information during the timeframe.

Initially, the media has it said 5 to 6ft of waves to hit Hawaii as high probability. There are no resources, zero efforts academically and scientifically saying any estimated wave heights in accordance to impact Hawaii. Since the records of 0.02 to 1.02ft has been recorded in all gauges since the quake centre, it is virtually impossible for Hawaii to experience waves greater than 1.2ft because of their geographical location is twice further than those other gauges.

Here a brief summary of this event in terms of positives and negatives.

Positives: Emergency management in Hawaii is very professional, they did proper evacuation needs, safety procedures and thereof. They did a good thing. Also, there are no tsunami impact that would likely to destroy lives and properties, even though if those people stood still on the beach. In different perspective, it is good thing that people who did not waste their time managing for safety, going berserk like the majority of the public are getting to gas stations during massive traffic jams, buying food and water.

Negatives: False alarm evacuation is very risky business. Hawaii is likely to cause economic losses as a result of this. Also, psychological distress for those people might need to see counselling services as a result of this non existence event. This cause has been fuelled by media hype and poor warning design from the Pacific Tsunami warning centre (the snippets I copied last night; the information on that page is completely insufficient and less detailed). However, the information on their warning system wasn't relevant to major tsunami impact because; 1. there are no wave height estimates for Hawaii in due respect to the recorded wave heights of the buoys before arriving Hawaii, 2. Information was mainly to cause panic people in conjunction of saying immediate danger, threatening life and properties etc.

Disaster management is very dangerous business. More than 99% of the time the cause of damage is from the media. Which the media has caused psychological distress to the people in accordance of false alarms. I highly applaud to the efforts of Hawaii emergency response committee to take good control of evacuation procedures and getting to safety. However, I DO NOT applaud to the efforts of Pacific Tsunami warning centre because they contain insufficient data collection, inappropriate texting without evidence of danger and as well resulting 800,000 to evacuate for non existent event without backup.

EDIT: This is what I have taught by disaster studies course here at the uni. If no respect for this. Do not bother posting negative comments.


Edited by MathewTownsend (29/10/2012 11:14)
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#1136154 - 29/10/2012 11:40 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1580
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
I would rather be running up a hill than getting washed out to sea end of story Mathew.
That is why i would not want you in emergancy management. You have to think beyond numbers ,if they made the wrong call you would not be saying told you so . Thats what their there for to warn us .cheers Doug
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#1136155 - 29/10/2012 11:44 Re: Tsunami [Re: ozone doug]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2030
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Matthew, I just hope that you are going to take any warnings in the US and heed them. People who have to dig someone out of avalanches/pull them out of rivers tend to get cranky and rightfully so at idiots who disregard the warnings. That is if the person is lucky enough to survive their stupidity in ignoring warnings.

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#1136162 - 29/10/2012 11:59 Re: Tsunami [Re: bundybear]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Nevermind. I give up.


Edited by MathewTownsend (29/10/2012 12:00)
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#1136163 - 29/10/2012 12:00 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 113
Matthew,

The PTWC judged that there was a credible threat and they acted accordingly with the information they had at the time.

Please remember (I can only assume) that the PWTC is not a bunch of people using the internet to get there info, instead they have buoys, computer simulation models, a team of scientists etc. etc.

In regards to the Media coverage I to was watching the feed from KITV, and although I normally agree with the media in terms of over hyping, this time in my opinion they were sensible and clearly mentioned many times what was being seen on the beach video feed was normal waves not the Tsunami.

[/quote] Also, there are no tsunami impact that would likely to destroy lives and properties, even though if those people stood still on the beach [/quote]

It is not just the land, moored marine vessels don't respond well to being tied up in marinas. There is a Navy base (from my recollections) on Hawaii which would have been considered I assume.

[/quote] I DO NOT applaud to the efforts of Pacific Tsunami warning centre because they contain insufficient data collection, inappropriate texting without evidence of danger and as well resulting 800,000 to evacuate for non existent event without backup. [/quote]

Again this is only your perception (which may/may not be accurate) It is not the PTWC's primary role to include all information when making a prediction, in emergencies (such as last night) giving clear nontechnical information to the media and goverments etc. would be the goal. You have to realise that a fair proportion of people didn't go looking at the website to make their own minds all they want is a go/no go decision.

Similarly when cyclone warnings are put out they don't generally get too technical when delivering to the general public via the media.

Cheers,

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#1136166 - 29/10/2012 12:05 Re: Tsunami [Re: Noname]
RoadkillNZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2011
Posts: 362
Loc: Jimboomba, Qld
The media did not issue the warning from PTWC, nor control the authorities who did the official evacuation.

It would be like getting a bushfire evacuation message and choosing not to evacuate because you do not think it is going to happen and it is just media hype, sure in hindsight you may of ended up being safe if the fire does not end up being as bad as expected, but would you really want to take the risk because you think it is just media hype
_________________________
Weather at Jimboomba from the place opposite mine (So I don't have to fix my weather gauges) -
www.jimboombaweather.com.au

Wind is under reported because it is sheltered by trees.

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#1136170 - 29/10/2012 12:17 Re: Tsunami [Re: bundybear]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1884
Loc: Semaphore SA
The media hype is unavoidable, not always accurate...but it does help spread word.

Do they put the warning out after an earthquake they think has potential to cause a tsunami occurs? Or do they wait for data from buoys and such? I'm sure the system isn't perfect yet.

I'd rather deal with false alarms and be safe than get a delayed warning (or none at all) - just incase smile


Edited by Chris #3 (29/10/2012 12:19)
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#1136186 - 29/10/2012 13:23 Re: Tsunami [Re: Chris #3]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14149
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Matthew you have zero experience in a real life, population based, panic situation and all the University learning in the world goes straight out the widow when confronted by real life. Nothing, ever goes to plan. Not in life, in war, not in natural disasters in fact not anywhere.

A simple fact you have repeatedly failed to grasp. People do the dumbest things under the stress of a natural or man made disaster.

I was not attacking you, mearly stating a fact and explaining to people who don't know you why your comments make you look like an uncaring fwit.

You cannot help it but you have zero ability to see anything except what you have been taught as 100% utter truth, when the real world is vastly different from what some numpty with a degree is waffling about in a classroom.

You can plan for anything, have a million contingency plans but they will never be completely effective so long as there is a human element built into it. People do strange things under stress and are completely unpredictable.

Forcing people to stay until day light had several effects not the least of which was allowing people time to come to terms with what had happened and reduced the panic that infects large groups in these situations.

_________________________
202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
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#1136189 - 29/10/2012 13:44 Re: Tsunami [Re: SBT]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Matthew you need to calm down, I highly doubt this is what JCU is teaching you. Remember you are on a online forum that anyone can see. Including future employers.....if I was hiring you Matthew and saw what you have been writing I would not hire you.

Have a think before you post, you are the only one against the warning system probably in the world. Chill the hell out.


Edited by OzCyChaser Trav (29/10/2012 13:45)
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#1136197 - 29/10/2012 14:33 Re: Tsunami [Re: Dawgggg]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24716
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: MathewTownsend

Disaster management is very difficult effort because of the resources does control the effort of media hyping and poor emergency management. It good to see the Hawaii has an awesome emergency planning to get things sorted as a great effort. However, this case has failed because the media case is causing significant damage in the economy and as well causing psychological distress to those people who has been anxious and panic.

evacuation sirens were sounding across hawaii before most people would have even switched on the tv or radio. thats why american states have sirens for this purpose, same goes for tornado sirens. remembering that this was occuring at 10pm at night, if you were asleep you wouldnt know about it unless you were woken up by the sirens. why put all the blame on the media! most of the media get their information direct from the warning centre's themselves, not saying the media is always 100% correct (cough, cough Garry Youngberry!!) but imo they did the correct thing in sounding the evac sirens first.
_________________________
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April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
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#1136216 - 29/10/2012 15:25 Re: Tsunami [Re: Mick10]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 110
Matthew,

Knowing someone who went through the Boxing Day tsunami, and the ongoing trauma that they suffered as a result of this - I advocate early warning signs/signals/anything. Wait until you've seen someone break down when they saw on the news the toowoomba 'inland' tsunami last year, bringing back memories. Someone who will never go near the beach again. To see someone turn from the happiest person you will ever meet, to someone who still suffers to this day - is not something I would wish upon anyone. Especially, because the 'possibility' of 'incorrect' data will cause 'mass evacuations'. That is a fact of life.

Your theories, possibilities, and plausible outcomes are exactly that. POSSIBILITIES. Anything can happen.

Just like predicting the weather, tsunami prediction is not an exact science.

I can safely assure you, that the people in Hawaii (who as history shows have been impacted a number of times throughout history by tsunami's) do heed these warnings.

Matthew, I end it with this. If you are ever in a situation where a 'warning' has been issued and you believe it wrong - go and stand on the beach. I will however be going to the nearest hill/high point and sitting it out.

Unfortunately, we live in an age of reliance. Reliance on the media to disperse information. Gone are the day's where people would actually take heed and self evacuate.

Feel free to reply (I actually expect it).
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#1170663 - 06/02/2013 12:49 Re: Tsunami [Re: zuldjan]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1170666 - 06/02/2013 13:07 Re: Tsunami [Re: Arnost]
adam93 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/08/2011
Posts: 247
Loc: mission beach qld
hmmm...... new zealand are on warning, but we are closer and only on watch. sky news??? haha

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#1170669 - 06/02/2013 13:11 Re: Tsunami [Re: adam93]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS.

http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TSUPAC.2013.02.06.0149
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1170672 - 06/02/2013 13:15 Re: Tsunami [Re: Arnost]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10101
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
No Threat Bulletin issued by JATWC on BOM 45 minutes ago:

IDY68009

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


MEDIA:

NO USE OF STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL (SEWS)

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS INFORMATION IF REFERRING TO THE EARTHQUAKE IN NEWS REPORTS.

********************************************************************************


NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO AUSTRALIA

Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at 12:30 PM EDT on

Wednesday 06 February 2013


********************************************************************************

SUMMARY:

An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.9 has occurred at 12:12 PM EDT on Wednesday

06 February 2013 near SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION.


THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES.


For further information check the Bureau's website www.bom.gov.au/tsunami or call

1300 TSUNAMI (1300 878 6264).


No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.

********************************************************************************

DETAILS:

An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.9 has occurred at 12:12 PM EDT on Wednesday

06 February 2013 near SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION (latitude 11.220S, longitude

164.730E). The JATWC has assessed that there is NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE

AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES from this earthquake.


No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.


FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:

Call 1300 TSUNAMI (1300 878 6264)

Check the Bureau's web site: www.bom.gov.au/tsunami


********************************************************************************

The JATWC is operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience

Australia

********************************************************************************

http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/index.shtml
_________________________
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July 2017 Rainfall: 11.2mm (Jul Avg. 76.8mm) // July 2017 Raindays: 3 (Jul Avg. 8.2 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1243.4mm (Jan-Jul Avg. 1018.3mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 103 (Jan-Jul Avg. 85.6 raindays)

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#1170675 - 06/02/2013 13:31 Re: Tsunami [Re: Seabreeze]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
Media reports damage at the Santa Cruz Islands and Solomon Islands area
In theory, there may be a tsunami moving slowly towards Australia.

But, if this has happened it will take 1-2 hours to reach the coastline and BOM will be able to observe this happening from ocean buoys and issue the appropriate warnings.

Officially, BOM says there is no threat to the Australian coastline at this time.
However I would be cautious about swimming or other activities in the water because of changing currents which are likely to occur as a result of the large underwater earthquake that has occurred

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#1170676 - 06/02/2013 13:36 Re: Tsunami [Re: Steven]
adam93 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/08/2011
Posts: 247
Loc: mission beach qld
definately agree with you steven, the bom will be watching VERY closely, still thought it was a bit premature to say there WILL BE NO THREAT TO AUSTRALIA

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#1170677 - 06/02/2013 13:45 Re: Tsunami [Re: adam93]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
BOM do know a lot about these types of events and in the past earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 at the Solomon Islands have caused tsunamis of about 10cm on the North Qld coastline.

Tsunamis of 10cm do not cause major damage and a land based warning is inappropriate

But, as I wrote earlier if there is a tsunami wave they will detect it and issue whatever warnings are required.

They may have to issue a marine warning/advisory later, will be interesting to see what happens

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#1170742 - 06/02/2013 19:59 Re: Tsunami [Re: Steven]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
There are 10 buoys in event mode in the Pacific Ocean at the moment. If you click on the pulsating diamonds (buoys), you'll see some very interesting movements have occurred.

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#1199470 - 17/06/2013 17:40 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic

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#1201256 - 25/06/2013 20:22 Re: Tsunami [Re: duckweather]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
A tsunami has been confirmed to have occurred in Jersey Shore on June 13th this month. It is apparently only being reported on now NBC10 Philadelphia
Video report also in this link.

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#1242509 - 16/02/2014 10:27 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
mad mick Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/11/2007
Posts: 1182
Loc: Aitkenvale,townsville
Interesting talking to a skipper the other day and when all that concern about a tidal wave here from Japan. He said he was working on his boat in the Ross Creek marina and said he heard a scraping noise and upon going out side seen the boat rising he said he recorded a one metre rise and fall with a following half metre rise which he advised the BOM of which they were not interested he looked at the bouy movement for that time and there was none could this be because he was in a small opening and not a larger area like a beach front begs the question does it not we all don't want to believe we could get one that the reef would protect us but would it.

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#1242537 - 16/02/2014 12:07 Re: Tsunami [Re: mad mick]
duckweather Offline
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Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2540
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
That’s a very interesting post mad mick wink

I too have witnessed (as a ‘yachty’ from the distant past) some interesting water behaviours, like the skippers’ observations, in the past.

Below is my opinion only and is not a scientific one (I am not a scientist). I may be wrong with some of my understandings here, so don’t take my words as fact.

A general sea level rise, meaning a general bay or ocean level rise possibly caused by a tsunami or other event causing an overall water volume increase, would affect all of a coast line to varying degrees, and its inlets. The currents generated and water volume can vary due to lay of the land and sea floor height.

For an inlet to be more affected in water volume/height, as against the possible levels registered by an at sea buoy, may be due possibly a coastal-hugging current or a directional (coming from one defined direction) physical flow of water being forced into an isolated pocket (e.g. inlet) where any physical change in the water volume may be more pronounced than in a greater body of water, such as a sea.

A sea level disturbance and momentum of after affects, following a tsunami in a distant or near place, may continue to affect currents and associated water volume as the energy continues to be expelled. A reef or land structure (such as an offshore sand bank ) may deflect much of this energy, but some of the energy may slip around the reef or sand bank, creating a temporary local or isolated surge/water behaviour in water volume in a waterway leading in and off from a coastal region.

When an event of this nature is seen and experienced, the timing of the at-sea buoy readings may not correspond with the noted sea/water level variation or temporary rise in an inlet. Therefore, an informal reading of this rise may not be recognized by some authorities as a formal recording (unless someone from that ‘authority’ was actually there at the time and/or there were many witnesses verifying their observations). The actual depth readings of a buoy in the ocean or even near a coast, which may contradict the visual observation of the skipper in an inlet, for example, may be because the tremendous volume of water off coast may be less affected by a ‘small’ surge (height recording) than a shallower inlet which may display a water disturbance much more readily.

The skipper you spoke to felt, saw and noted what he saw and I would believe him. He approached an authority for confirmation of his suspicions, but probably couldn’t confirm such, because ‘they’ weren’t there themselves to record such – leaving the skippers’ observations as personal ones only, unfortunately.

There are many ‘things’ which can cause an isolated and momentary water/sea level rise on/in a coastal region (local scale), such as;
* land or sea bed subsidence or rise
* nearby fresh water flooding - leaching into the coastal edge waters
* earthquake
* local tidal surges
*….and so many other things.

Sometimes what is happening in a coastal region is unrelated to the greater sea.
Sometimes an event from a far off place can cause physical energies to travel far and wide, disturbing seas and lands until the energy generated is finally dispersed through rebounding off or absorbed, for example, land structures, and depleted.

I hope I made sense here. I have been awake nearly all night and am a bit ‘dopey’ at the moment crazy tired

Cheers….dopey Duck.





Edited by duckweather (16/02/2014 12:08)
Edit Reason: spelling again

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#1252794 - 02/04/2014 11:17 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
There's just been a major quake with epicentre off Chile at 9:46am AEST. The USGS detected the preliminary magnitude as 8.0 with depth of 10km but these may be revised up or down.

Unknown yet whether or not a tsunami was caused but should know soon when data from tsunami detection buoys come in. At time of writing, the JATWC has issued a *NO THREAT* tsunami bulletin for Australia.

Below is a map showing possible max tsunami heights (metres) up til 1pm AEST generated by one of the tsunami models (Joint Research Centre). This model is still running so the forecast hasn't gone beyond 1pm yet. Of course tsunami's are typically only a few cm high as they travel up to 800km/hr across the open ocean but slow down & get bigger p as they approach the coast:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3824/13570837325_3d450eee95_b.jpg


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#1252807 - 02/04/2014 12:42 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
First Tsunami apparently hit within 40min at around 2m. Not too big luckily.

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#1252811 - 02/04/2014 13:08 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Apperently it was a Thrust event but I can only guess it didn't achieve a huge vertical movement if it has only produced a 2m wave on the coast. I am starting to think these reports may be underestimating this event and that we may hear of far more destructive waves soon.

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#1252818 - 02/04/2014 13:58 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
The max amplitude recorded by tidal gauges in the area still stands at 2.11m so far as per below.

Also below is the water column readings from one of the nearby tsunami DART network buoys that was triggered into high resolution event mode:


MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
MATARANI PE 17.0S 72.1W 0021Z 0.53M / 1.7FT 24MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 0014Z 0.93M / 3.1FT 28MIN
PATACHE CL 20.8S 70.2W 0015Z 1.51M / 5.0FT 10MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0005Z 2.11M / 6.9FT 12MIN
PISAGUA CL 19.6S 70.2W 0004Z 1.73M / 5.7FT 12MIN


https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3765/13573070453_135138752d_b.jpg
https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3815/13573016755_fe95bfe20c_o.png



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#1252903 - 03/04/2014 06:01 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
perrywinkle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2006
Posts: 424
Loc: Warrawee Valley
58cm Tsunami in Hawaii. Many NOAA bouys going off across the pacific now. May not be big, but will influence our east coast waterways.

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#1252905 - 03/04/2014 06:20 Re: Tsunami [Re: perrywinkle]
perrywinkle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2006
Posts: 424
Loc: Warrawee Valley
Originally Posted By: perrywinkle
58cm Tsunami in Hawaii. Many NOAA bouys going off across the pacific now. May not be big, but will influence our east coast waterways.


National 'no threat' posted by JATWC seems to have been removed overnight.

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#1252948 - 03/04/2014 13:22 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Can see the reach of the tsunami's energy in the MOST model output below albeit at much lower amplitudes away from the quake:

https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5012/13593589573_45ece32d21_o.png


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#1252953 - 03/04/2014 14:01 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
There's just been another sizeable one in the area at 1:43pm AEDT, presumably one of the aftershocks. Preliminary mag 7.4 with depth 10km. Pre-calculated output from the JRC's tsunami model:

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7145/13594534704_2a9df0c09a_o.jpg


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#1252956 - 03/04/2014 14:18 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Magnitude of this latest shake now revised up to 7.8

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#1259169 - 13/04/2014 06:54 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
There's just been a major quake with epicentre off the Solomon Islands at 6:14am AEST....preliminary magnitude 7.6 with depth of 29 km.

Unknown yet whether a tsunami was generated. Here's the output from the JRC's tsunami model based on the closest precalculated scenario (the more refined output is still running as obs start coming in):

https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2868/13805961625_663639bfa6_o.jpg


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#1322621 - 30/03/2015 11:36 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Some automatically generated graphics from the USGS and JRC below for the preliminary magnitude 7.7 quake that occurred in the PNG region at 10:49am AEDT:






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#1327958 - 05/05/2015 12:23 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Big 7.4 quake in the New Britain region of PNG again (11:44am AEST). Depth now revised to 63km though so not that shallow. Some preliminary tsunami modelling results from the JRC (which may be overdoing it if it's based on the preliminary depth of 10km):


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#1335895 - 18/07/2015 13:14 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Big 7.3 (preliminary) quake with depth of 4km (GA data) in the Santa Cruz Islands region north of Vanuatu at 12:27pm. No tsunami threat to Australia itself at this stage:




Edited by Ken Kato (18/07/2015 13:16)
Edit Reason: tsunami threat downgraded

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#1335896 - 18/07/2015 13:26 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1644
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Thanx Ken. JATWC has no warning up.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1336393 - 24/07/2015 13:09 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Here's the full text from the alert I received earlier re the undersea Caribbean volcano and any upcoming tsunami risk:


Potential Kick ’em Jenny Activity (Orange Alert) and the Associated Tsunami Threat Statement from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and US National Tsunami Warning Center

Kick 'em Jenny is an active submarine volcano or seamount on the Caribbean Sea floor, located 8 km (5 mi) north of the island of Grenada and about 8 km (5 mi) west of Ronde Island in the Grenadines at roughly 12.30° N, 61.64° W. Its summit is approximately 200 m (600 ft) below the surface of the ocean.

What?
The Seismic Research Centre (SRC) of the University of the West Indies has issued an Orange Alert for the underwater volcano Kick ’em Jenny1. An Orange Alert means “Highly elevated level of seismic and/or fumarolic activity or other unusual activity. Eruption may begin with less than twenty-four hours notice.”

Why?
Instruments monitored by SRC recorded strong, continuous seismic activity from the volcano between 1:25 am and 3:00 am, local time, July 23, 2015 suggesting than an eruption could occur with less than 24-hours notice. Signs of elevated seismicity (earthquakes) began on July 11th and continue to the present.

What is the tsunami threat?
An undersea volcanic eruption can displace the overlying seawater, generating tsunami waves. The amplitude of the waves and area threatened depends upon many factors including the size, depth, and nature of the eruption. Should a tsunami occur, waves would reach Grenada within just a few minutes. If the tsunami were large enough to expand further, it would reach St. Vincent within 10 minutes, Martinique and Tobago within about 30 minutes, and Barbados within about 40 minutes. A very large tsunami could reach the northern coast of Venezuela to the south and the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico within an hour and a half. Any tsunami hazard would be confined to the Caribbean region.

What is being done?
Kick 'em Jenny activity is being closely monitored by the SRC and further updates will be issued by SRC as more information becomes available. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and US National Tsunami Warning Center are also following the situation closely and will be monitoring seismic and sea level data from the nearest seismic and coastal sea level gauges. Should an eruption be confirmed and/or tsunami be detected they will issue appropriate messages to their respective areas of responsibility in the Caribbean region. Citizens are reminded to follow all instructions from their local emergency management. Some rules for tsunami safety and response can be found at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/Tsunami/
SRC recommends that vulnerable communities be advised of evacuation routes and transport be put on standby. SRC indicates that local radio stations in Grenada, St. Vincent, Barbados and Trinidad have been placed on alert. SRC recommends that the public listen to their local radio continuously for updates and visits the Seismic Research Center website if possible..SRC instructs that shipping vessels should stay outside of the first exclusion zone - 1.5 km from the summit of Kick ’em Jenny and that non-essential shipping, such as pleasure craft, should stay outside of the secondary exclusion zone – 5 km clear of the summit.

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#1368266 - 03/03/2016 00:42 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
EDIT: A Tsunami Marine Warning still current for Christams and Cocos Island.
The Tsunami Land Watch issued for parts of the WA coast is now cancelled.

Huge quake just occurred off Sumatra... preliminary mag 8.1, depth near the surface (Geoscience Australia data).

JAWTC map and some preliminary results from JRC tsunami modelling below:










Edited by Ken Kato (03/03/2016 00:48)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1394322 - 22/11/2016 08:31 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Big quake just off northeast Japan. JMA currently has it as a preliminary mag 7.3 and has a tsunami warning current at time of writing (there's already been some near-coastal measurements of an observed tsunami):



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#1394330 - 22/11/2016 09:37 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17293
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
3 metres high according to a breaking news article out of Japan. There is some video around their ports showing the surge .
_________________________
"I don’t play golf, but I don’t mean to denigrate those who do. And for the people who play golf , denigrate means *put down*."

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#1394334 - 22/11/2016 10:13 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4391
Highest confirmed tsunami measurement so far is 1.4 metres.
The 3m was an initial forecast.

This was some of the water surging into a port in Iwaki earlier (there was also a well-defined drawdown leaving the mud at the bottom of the harbour entrance clearly visible):

EDIT: 1.4m observed







Edited by Ken Kato (22/11/2016 10:14)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1394335 - 22/11/2016 10:28 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17293
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
The quake has been downgraded to 6.9 apparently.
_________________________
"I don’t play golf, but I don’t mean to denigrate those who do. And for the people who play golf , denigrate means *put down*."

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#1394336 - 22/11/2016 10:28 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
Pharbelle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/04/2013
Posts: 119
Loc: Burrum Heads , Qld
Incredible watching that surge move back and forth through the port.

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#1394338 - 22/11/2016 11:15 Re: Tsunami [Re: Lindsay Knowles]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1580
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Would be terrifying for people in the region after the last one.Even if a minor surge.I would been hauling my butt out of there .We are so lucky in Australia apart from fire we get a bit of warning for most events.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
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