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#1111070 - 24/06/2012 18:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1084
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Does'nt it has to be below 5 degrees for sleet? It hasn't been below 5 here today.
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 378mm ytd

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#1111079 - 24/06/2012 18:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
Speaking of sleet, looking like another chance of a cold'ish outbreak for SE Australia (including SE QLD/NE NSW) around next weekend/early next week as a reasonable fetch of cooler SW'ly winds comes up on the backside of low/s/troughing/frontal activity near the east coast. Latest runs of ACCESS, GFS & EC currently suggest this may be a bit more marginal than the 5th June one though (they currently keep the sub-540 thickness values south of the border). The EC ensemble also currently paints slight-moderate probabilities of snow around the northern NSW tablelands by late weekend. Obviously early days so this will probably change in the coming days.

EC snowfall/MSLP/thickness chart for 1pm-4pm next Sun:




Uncertainty/spread map of 500hpa heights for 12z next Sat from the EC ensemble. Basically, high values (represented by the "warmer" colours) represent a wide spread among the ensemble's members, implying high uncertainty. You can see there's still a fair bit of uncertainty in the 500hpa setup over SE Australia for Sat so things could change a fair bit by then:


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#1111126 - 25/06/2012 07:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4245
Loc: Wynnum
Vict Pt-Sun.max.20.4C,Mon.min.14.8C,rain-nil..
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug0.0(45),YTD693.0(808.4)

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#1111153 - 25/06/2012 09:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: retired weather man]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Well what a miserable, cold day it is today. Currently flat lining at 13C here in Spring Mountain.
_________________________
http://www.youtube.com/user/MrScottieA

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#1111162 - 25/06/2012 10:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Scottie A]
Tigger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/01/2011
Posts: 126
Loc: Ipswich (Raceview) Queensland
The BOM have changed the forecast for Ipswich to Rain for today, tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday according to my WeatherZone desktop widget thing... frown

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#1111231 - 25/06/2012 18:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Tigger]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10118
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Fine, and mostly sunny day reaching 20 degrees. It was near calm too. Just some patches of high cloud streaming in from the west as the afternoon progressed. Looking SW towards the South West Rocks town centre from Trial Bay Gaol this afternoon.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
August 2017 Rainfall: 1.2mm (Aug Avg. 80.4mm) // August 2017 Raindays: 1 (Aug Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1244.6mm (Jan-Aug Avg. 1097.9mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Aug Avg. 93.6 raindays)

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#1111317 - 26/06/2012 07:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4245
Loc: Wynnum
Vict Pt-Mon.max.19.3C,Tue.min.13.3C,rain-trace..
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug0.0(45),YTD693.0(808.4)

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#1111372 - 26/06/2012 14:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: retired weather man]
Homesick FNQ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2010
Posts: 327
Loc: Tewantin Qld
11 deg here, warmest it's been all day. Cloud cover has kept the temp from crashing too low. First morning in 4 days with no ice on the ground. Nearly 2mm of rain. Think it's time to shut the doors and turn the heater on...brrrrr
_________________________
Still smilin'& breathing.................

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#1111397 - 26/06/2012 16:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: davidatwurtulla]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
The freezing level is around 10,000 feet today with no shortage of supercooled water droplets, water-coated snowflakes & ice near & above this height - this may be contributing a bit towards the high reflectivities (bright-banding) in areas of the precip showing up on Mt Stapylton radar imagery compared to how much is reaching the ground. The amount of supercooled water in the clouds is also presenting the risk of severe airframe icing for aircraft above this height.

For those sick of all the rain though, the info in my post in the ENSO Discussion thread under Climate may provide some hope!

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#1111412 - 26/06/2012 17:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1740
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I hope not Ken, I'm keen on a neutral Nino/Nina this year so that we can finally get a cracker storm season in SE QLD/ northern NSW.


Edited by Nature's Fury (26/06/2012 17:44)

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#1111460 - 27/06/2012 08:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Nature's Fury]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4245
Loc: Wynnum
Vict Pt-Tue.max.16.7C,Wed.min,11.8C,rain-20.0mm...
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug0.0(45),YTD693.0(808.4)

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#1111710 - 28/06/2012 19:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: retired weather man]
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
looks like the inland frosts and cold mornings are back from sunday untill wednesday

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#1111715 - 28/06/2012 20:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Squid]
snoopydoo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 263
Loc: Forest Lake
Min. 5 degrees predicted next Tuesday in Brissy - brrrrrrr!!!

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#1111718 - 28/06/2012 20:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: snoopydoo]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
The 1st image below is an extreme weather forecast map generated by the EC ensemble for next Mon. The light blue represents colder than normal weather. The coloured areas only represent conditions compared to what's normal for that area & time of year ("extreme cold" near Darwin might not feel that cold to a Melbourne person).

The 2nd image is a graph generated by the GFS ensemble showing the chances of night-time temps at Archerfield dipping below 5C. The future dates in UTC are on the bottom.

The 3rd image is my forecast windchill map generated from GFS data for 1pm next Mon. One of those days when being out in the sun & out of the wind will be the best bet.






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#1111721 - 28/06/2012 20:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
snoopydoo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 263
Loc: Forest Lake
Thanks for that Ken. My closest station is Archerfield, and I know we often get colder temps here in the western suburbs. Looks like a few cold mornings next week.

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#1111725 - 28/06/2012 20:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: snoopydoo]
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
cheers KEN could be some of the coldest mornings of the year coming up by the looks

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#1111801 - 29/06/2012 08:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Squid]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2877
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
Do you think there will be a fair bit of fog around next week Ken?

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#1111960 - 29/06/2012 18:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
For coastal SE QLD, there might be some around, mainly approaching mid-week & mainly around the more sheltered low-lying areas. Since the approaching high should be a fair way south, the drier SW'ly winds will probably keep fog chances near the coast pretty low early next week while the SE'ly winds should kick in after midweek & bring in a bit more cloud while lowering the chances of fog at the same time.

As for tonight/Sat morning, if the gradient winds were lighter (10-20kt forecast over SE QLD as per ACCCESS-A) & cloud cover remained minimal, the chances of a widespread fog event for the Brisbane metro area would be high (especially given all the moisture still lying around on the ground after the recent rain, the low level inversion & drier air above). But as it is, the forecast patchy cloud over some parts & gradient winds will probably make the chances of widespread fog for the metro area more marginal (but not totally out of the question). The chances are higher further south & northwest, as well as sheltered areas inland of the coast. Below is the fog probability map generated by my script using GFS data for overnight & Sat morning:


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#1111989 - 29/06/2012 22:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 432
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/91P_291000sair.jpg

I know I'm in the wrong place with this but could we really see a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea in June......Well I never......What chance a SEQ crossing.....hehe!!!

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#1112026 - 30/06/2012 08:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: buster]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4245
Loc: Wynnum
Vict Pt-Fri.max.22.1C,Sat.min.10.2C,rain-nil.

June rain 143mm, YTD 1159mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug0.0(45),YTD693.0(808.4)

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