Bill thanks for your valuable input .
So you have the ENSO cycle itself in declination . And the PDO ?????

crikey - talking about that school experiment.... I admit I haven't done this one, but if you are still in the school business, this one may be one to try.

http://www.csiro.au/Portals/Education/Pr...o-activity.aspx

I have an Enso/nina/nino question/observation sitting in the Coral Sea thread... be interested in your opinions

The influence of the planets is not direct on earth but on the sun. The Solar System Barycentre (SSB) is well established. Jupiter and Saturn the gas giants are the main culprits for solar sunspot cycles, with their 35-yr catch-up. At this point it brings in astrology, which traditionally factored sun alignments but along the way got hijacked by Christianity, which preached that only God had any influence in events, and any talk of cycles was labelled heresy. It didn't change the fact of what happens, only the ability to talk openly about it and retain one's freedom.
From the sun the effects are transferred to the moon, which is a planet and as such 'answers' to the sun. The SSB cycle is about 36-38 years, twice the tidal and nodal cycles of the moon on earth and roughly 4x the perigee cycle. Cycles affecting weather are 11, 23-24 and 30-35 years (sun and planets), and 18-19, 38 and 56 (lunar). There is wide variation with all of these, e.g. the 11-yr sunspot cycle can be anything between 9-14-yrs. The moon is a little more reliable. There are also 93, 133 and 186-year cycles with the moon.
The effects of the sun and moon are mostly due to the perturbation of earth's electromagnetic field. The earth (Land) tide is the chief tide and the other tides, sea and air, derive daily from that. The mechanics are complex, but basically low tide at the coast is high land tide. Australia rises and falls due to the Land Tide about 50cms per day. If one wants one's work to be considered science, then the null is to assume that the electromagnetic field is not affected daily by e.g. the moon, and then prove this to be so. Without that proof it cannot be dismissed unless you are not doing science, and then it is out of range of any scientific discussion.
The moon crosses hemispheres once per month and back again, due to earth's tilt. Masses of water are shifted, creating currents. Barometric pressures also change with declination, as the sea and air frictionally interface over 75% of the surface of the planet. Once again, to deny this requires proof that it could not be so. Without that proof science withers and becomes mere dogma.
Declinations themselves vary from maximum to minimum over 18.613-yrs. It means current strengths are cyclic and the periods determined in significant part by the moon. The SOI sequence is a reversal of currents. The easterlies from S America are the main winds, used to be called Trade Winds. This westward push at the equatorial band bringing cold water from Antarctica up the side of S America and towards Australia eventually creates a higher sealevel near Australia and when this reaches a differential of 62cms there is a need for sealevel to stabilise, like the sloshing of a dish. When the level builds to this peak (La Nina) cold currents coming up the coast of S America stall, westerlies across the Pacific creating the El Nino and this stalls the Gulf Stream, creating colder winters in the northern hemisphere. So what stalls the currents? It is the moon's declination.
A clue is that during an El Niño event seas are cooler near Australia's east coast and air pressure is generally higher. This difference in atmospheric pressure demonstrates how sea and air are subject to the same causal factors of 'currents', and are basically tidal due to lunar cycles. The air pressure differences result in weaker easterly trade winds across the tropical Pacific, with less moisture being driven over.
I do not expect agreement on these points, but I do expect science in the form of null hypotheses if this is to be discussed fairly. Those are the rules I think we agree to when we decide to become scientists.

I believe kingtides only occur around lunar perigees. The equinox adds weight also. Tides are regular as to moon and sun, by 2.5:1. They overall repeat every 18-19 years, depending on how measured. For instance exactly 19 years (Metonic Cycle) gives good repeatability and was known about for hundreds of years, but is not the only one.

Spike in Ross River virus blamed on La Nina

"Acting Medical Entomologist Peter Neville says the large increase is not surprising.

"For the last year, we've been under La Nina weather conditions," he said.

"This means that we've seen much higher than average rainfall, warmer minimum temperatures and an increase in the number and frequency of high tides."

- ABC (posted on weatherzone "Weather News"

Is this person talking sense?
1. The item refers to parts of WA: Perth, South-west, and Great Southern. How does La Nina affect those places, if at all?
2. What season does Ross River Fever occur in? Did that season have excessive rainfall? Was that a season when La Nina prevailed?
3. Do warmer nights associate with La Nina in WA? (Here we get colder days with La Nina.)
4. Surely, high tides are not affected by La Nina, are they?

I love the science Ken

Well there y'go Surly Bond
Tides = moon
So it aint just me matching moon with la Nina. Others know it but they haven't yet found the mechanism, or if they have they haven't talked about it. I think it's the lunar declination cycle. But I'm sure I wouldn't have been the first to notice it. Probably just the first fool to put it in forums and have it kicked to pieces

The ENSO and solar phases are closely linked together, as i will show on my website soon from all data from 1883 to 2011, as are many other ocean cycles, which I will also show. May be a few weeks off however, as I am busy forecasting for clients.

Ken, would La Nina give higher tides near Perth?
If yes, the man may be on to something; if no, his model is wrong.

The variations in maximum and minimum declination have been found to affect the movements of ocean surface tides all over the world, resulting in rhythmic climatic cycles. The greatest tidal variation for the kingtide times is around the minimum declination years. That means higher kingtides and lower low tides. It also means lesser chances of earthquakes, probably because an extra low seatide is because of a higher than normal land tide, which indicates that stress is already being released. Higher sea tide variations are what we are approaching as we head towards the next lunar minimum around 2015. This would apply to every country, not just Perth. I would say forget La Nina, it has less to do with it except in hindsight. It is too vague and is too variously interpreted.

Crikey I was accused of attacking Ken in 2010 when he started a thread and the following was allowed by a mod at the time and I can't see any reasons why it shouldn't be used again. BTW Ken I was Wobbly Wombat back then and you have been busy in New Zealand with your failed eathrquake predictions causing quite a stir

Re: Ken Ring East Australian Winter 2010 Forecast [Re: Ken Ring] #856826 - 02-04-2010 15:38 (Please note the date of our last joust.)

Dammed if I do and dammed if I don't hey Willow? You wanted research well here it is in spades.

To start with I am not attacking a member. But as I have previously said if you put out work into the public arena you must expect it to be examined for it's accuracy.

Don't take my word for it have a bloody look yourselves. Type Ken Ring into Google (Discounting the paranormal research doctor from the US and the rapper of the same name)or any other search engine and it will lead you to the same places I found.

These are my observations and as such are my opinion not those of Weatherzone or anyone else in this forum.

Ken uses the same tactics in all the forums that I have read with him as a member.
As a generalisation I offer the following observations not of his theories but of the way in which he conducts himself while in these forums:

1) He espouses his theories as an alternative to current scientific forecasting methods. Fine I have no problem with alternate theories so long as some form of tangible proof is also offered.
2) He couches his words in such a way as to make them appear a reasonable proposition but without offering any real substance.
3) When he is questioned by someone on one of his points he resorts to arrogance and bullying, claiming he is being pilloried for his views and sending up a smoke screen to deflect the enquiry away from what was originally asked.
4) When one of his general predictions fails to occur he then goes on the defensive and starts telling members that his theories aren’t exact and that they have an in built fudge factor.
5) When pressed for more information as to why his prediction failed to occur he starts claiming that his research isn’t complete, which beggars belief as to why he is then able to sell his predictions in the first place if it isn’t complete.
6) When this fails he then brings in a third party and goes to town on them. Usually an establish Met agency by claiming that they also didn’t predict the event correctly either.
7) He has been caught changing his online weather forecasts to fall more into line of what has already occurred and not changing the edit date on his web page. When confronted by this he claimed he forgot to edit the edit date. Possibly an honest mistake on his behalf who knows but as a webmaster I know it is standard practice to update the dates when pages are changed.
8) It always ends with him leaving the forum with more questions being asked by forum members than he answers.

Links:

Netweather http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/33985-k...030ccd367bec8b2

Skiworld http://forums.ski.com.au/forums/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=336431&page=1&fpart=1

Irish Boards – Ken Ring
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055720835

Net Weather
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/33985-ken-rings-winter-forecast/

Some not so flattering blog entries from fellow New Zealanders:

Ringworld Blog. http://www.limestonehills.co.nz/Down%20On%20The%20Farm/Topics/Ringworld.html

Silly Beliefs – Ken Ring - Weather forecasting by the moon.
http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html (It's a scam)

Silly Beliefs – Ken Ring — King of Plagiarism http://www.sillybeliefs.com/blog012.html#blog012-4

World Wide Web Weather (W4) http://weather.noble.gen.nz/lunarcy.php

The Second Sight http://thesecondsight.blogspot.com/2006/08/true-lunatic.html

On the farm http://www.limestonehills.co.nz/Down%20O...nTheMoonli.html


Possibly the best observation I have yet found is the following:
A poster on Irish Boards made the following observation:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=64064391&postcount=269

Ken,

If you were to buy a non-fiction book on a subject would you check out the credentials and qualifications of the author who wrote it first? Standard practise in the academic world.

In objectively reviewing your weather forecasting results, I read that you also wrote a book on Palmistry for Cats - 'Pawmistry' as you call it - 'How to read your Cat's Paws'.

On the back cover of that book - on Amazon - it also states the following:

"Ken is a mathematician, a long time magician, mind reader and a public speaker with a passion for the ancient discipline of palm reading. Ken stumbled upon his peculiar calling at a psychic party several years ago, where he was able to deliver a reading of a cat's paw that proved to be uncannily accurate." (c) Pawmistry, 'How to Read Your Cat's Paw's', Ken Ring, 1998

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/reader/15...=0#reader-page

You clearly have a knowledge of cold reading techniques and generalised language patterns - as you are also a mind reader, palm reader, magician, etc - cold reading is not employed by doctors.

I believe - based on your own reactions and communication here on this thread - that anyone interested in your weather forecasting theory should set aside any reference to the weather and frequent themselves with the art of cold reading utilised by mind readers, psychics and magicians/illusionists. E.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_reading or watch Channel 4's Derren Brown.

My so far analysis of your weather forecasts is that it they are more than likely as follows:

1) Cold Reading & generalised communication techniques used by psychics, mind readers and illusionists - all of which you have experience in - concerning the weather as oppossed to someones future, personality or dead relatives.

2) A bit of mathematics in terms of the probability of weather trends happening. I.e. there are only a few potential general weather potentials so if anyone guesses a percentage of them will always appear to be correct.

3) Marketing - in terms of aggresively comparing your few correct guesses with the Publicly Funded Met Office incorrect forecasts, because the media and general public love to give grief to the Met Office when they get it wrong. This gives the illusion that you seemingly have an insight they don't. A popular ploy utilised by many long term forecasters.

4) Using the magicians art of 'smoke and mirrors and sleight of hand' when the focus is directed onto your techniques or lack of results... just as an illusionist diverts attention from the trick they are performing to create the illusion.

On a personal level, reading your posts here I quite like you and think you are a colourful eccentric character.

I think we both know I'm right regarding all of the above, don't we Ken.

All the best

The next poster asked
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=64068363&postcount=270

“I asked you what your scientific qualifications are Ken ?, if you don't wish to elaborate just say so .”

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=64068363&postcount=271

Kens reply
“Answering these personal baitings is just a waste of my time. I have already addressed all of these recent questions but if members choose not to listen and would rather push their own barrows of amusement. What I did 12 years ago for whatever reason is neither here nor there. I shall take part in this forum when discussion about weather forecasting returns.
regards
Ken Ring “

Of course that is just my research for the past 4 days looking at around 400 websites, links, blog entries and online news articles, podcasts, book reviews etc so yes I could be accused of a bit of biased and only fruit picking what I want to put forward but for the life of me I haven't yet found one credible source that says anything to the contary.

Let the chips fall where they will.

I have since done a little more research today on Ken, see below and make up your own mind about him:
Charlatan Ring merits contempt
NZ Sceptics expose Ken Ring's earthquake predictions and weather forecasts
World Wide Web Weather - Kens forecasting methods are lunarcy

Well said SBT.

Dengue and Ross River virus are spread by mosquitos. This has been trotted out every now and then as further proof of cAGW but I have personal experience with this issue (my wife was diagnosed with Dengue Fever in 1999). In 2001 I represented a bloke who contracted Dengue Fever 4 days after he arrived in East Timor on the first rotation of INTERFET. He submitted a claim that his service in East Timor caused him to fall ill and indeed become so sick he was unable to return to full duties for 12 months and in the end was discharged as medically unfit.

His claim for compensation for a service caused injury or disease was rejected. I appealed, it was rejected a second time. The governments stance was that his original unit was based in South Australia (his normal workplace) and that a case of dengue was reported 14 days before he departed from the suburb he was living in and that it was within the 'balance of probabilities' that he contracted the disease before departure and therefore it wasn't covered by DVA or MCRS because the infection and incubation times precluded him from being infected in East Timor.

As the mosquito could have arrived in Adelaide via a flight from Townsville or Cairns and that both cities where having out breaks at the time. Therefore the spread of Dengue has stuff all to do with global warming and a heck of a lot to do with flying from one city to another with either an infected but symptomless person on board who is in turn bitten by another mosquito or a mosquito hitched a lift in the plane and then bit him.

Because he couldn't prove that he was at his place of normal work and during work hours when he was bitten he had no claim.

Dengue Fever has been diagnosed in patients in Hobart and Perth so it isn't just confined to north WA/QLD/NT for the reasons stated above.

Mike , mate your post above @ 21:21 .... Contains this Gold .

" In objectively reviewing your weather forecasting results, I read that you also wrote a book on Palmistry for Cats - 'Pawmistry' as you call it - 'How to read your Cat's Paws'.

On the back cover of that book - on Amazon - it also states the following:

"Ken is a mathematician, a long time magician, mind reader and a public speaker with a passion for the ancient discipline of palm reading. Ken stumbled upon his peculiar calling at a psychic party several years ago, where he was able to deliver a reading of a cat's paw that proved to be uncannily accurate." (c) Pawmistry, 'How to Read Your Cat's Paw's', Ken Ring, 1998 " .

And for this you have my nomination for Humorous Post of the Year , Sadly for Young Kenny . It may actually be True .
And if so he should embarrassed from these walls .......

As to the Ross River connection , i would of thought that a Third of the Continent to see stagnant water at some time in the last 18 mths would have seen the Mosquitoe Numbers build exponentially and more than likely follow waters From Central Queensland down to SA anyways ..... and obviously the Airflight spread is solid evidence . 2000 was wet ( as far as NW Vic goes ) and going back further 93 , and then we are looking at the Mid 70's when Murray River Encephalitus was prevalent aswell . I seriously doubt its AGW orientated at all . Just more Humans in Areas or travellong large distances through and beyond areas known to have lengthy inundation times . All pretty scary stuff , when you consider how an Outbreak could move in Modern Times ....

S&($ , ( Edit time lock out ) GGRRRRR .

should always remember to save lengthy edits ....

too angry now to re write . another time . ( it was a response to Surly's La Nina - Tidal effect or lack of it . ) another time ... it was detailed long response .

No one has consistently forecast the weather or ENSO
It is an unrealistic expectation
We have all seen dud predictions even from professionals /amateurs and lay persons.
If Ken is correct. his work will prosper
If it is not reliable or less reliable than NZ govt forecast his following will wane..
Thats the law of commerce
If its a good product people will buy and return for more

Ken is not alone in linking the moon to the earth weather and even earth quake activity
The theories are not based on psychic predictions but are often explained using astro -physics knowledge


The posters comments above toward Ken R are So rude and self righteous!!
I feel like sending you all to bed early with no dinner.


Here is a study linking the moon to El Nino phase
The Moon and El Niño
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/2000GL012117.shtml
Randall S. Cerveny

Office of Climatology/Department of Geography, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ USA

John A. Shaffer

Office of Climatology/Department of Geography, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ USA

Regional climates around the world display cycles corresponding to the 18.61‐year maximum lunar declination (MLD) periodicity. We suggest that these cycles are created by a relationship between MLD and El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both equatorial Pacific sea‐surface temperature and South Pacific atmospheric pressure significantly correlate with maximum lunar declination. Low MLDs are associated with warmer equatorial Pacific sea‐surface temperatures and negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index. A lunar‐influenced change in the Pacific gyre circulation presents a viable physical mechanism for explaining these relationships. We suggest that the gyre is enhanced by tidal forces under high MLDs, inducing cold‐water advection into the equatorial region but is restricted by the weak tidal forcing of low MLDs thereby favoring El Niño episodes. An astronomical model utilizing this relationship produces a forecast of increased non‐El Niño (either La Niña or neutral) activity for the early part of this decade.

Received 26 July 2000; accepted 13 October 2000; . ----------
------------
Unfortunately l haven't read the whole study as l will have to find a credit card to read it.. grr
gotta get one from australia post..!!

and by the way. Their prediction/forecast for the early 2000's of a tendency for la nina / neutral Nina was incorrect. It actually tended to El Nino for the early part of the decade
The result and correct forecast is here
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

None the less there is some good science in the study that others can build on.

Wow, unprovoked attack, attack, attack. Is that permitted here? For the record, the cat book was a bit of satirical fun, instigated by Penguin publishers, using my name because I was at the time a high profile skeptic of New Age literature. The jacket notes were fictional and mostly invented by the publishers. Yes, I had been a school maths magician, for which I received a QEII Award for contributions to education in 1992, a national honour. I was sponsored as International Guest performer at the 2000 UK Maths Convention in York. I am certainly not ashamed of any of that as I proudly represented this part of the world. Most got the cat joke except those with no sense of humour. I know what cold reading is and used to lecture warning about it in the hands of unscrupulous fortune tellers, as Derren Brown now does. Something wrong with that? But I have not read a single cat's paw in my whole life and never intend to. Neither been a "mindreader" either. Neither even prepared anyone's horoscope as an "astrologer". I am a longrange forecaster, period, using solid science i.e. cycles, observations, astronomy and gravitational principles. I am university-science trained. The fact is, many disagree and many agree. The disagree-ers go nuts and try to get me banned from forums. What have they got to be afraid of? Truth and commonsense? All people have to do is google moon and weather or moon's gravitational forces and earthquakes to get the extensive international work done in this area. I ask what has Mike's post got to do with ENSO.

Crikey I didn't take any pleasure in posting what I did in 2010 and don't take anymore now.

The man is deluded, his theories only exist in his own mind and those gullible enough to believe him, his record is out in the wild for anyone to find and it isn't hard to find.

But hey, don't take my word for it do your own research. Not a single government weather or climate organisation takes him seriously and this causes him to view them with suspicion and to make announcements like the BoM is only trying to frighten farmers so they get more money in the next budget when they announced a ret6urn of El Nino.

As I said in 2010 I will debate points with anyone if they can back it up with a credible scientific theory that doesn't ask me to suspend 2000 years of scientific discovery, circumvent the known laws of nature and physics and ask me to trust him because he is the only one who can make it work.

I say again, if you put your work into the public domain you have to expect people to investigate if you have any credability or not.

If his theories hold any basis in fact I will repeat what I said in a later post - my mantra if you will after being chastised by a number of mods for my in depth investigation style which now is - Prove it, show me the data, show me how you came to your conclusions, what is the basis for your theories.

He used a 1963 theory by Edward Norton Lorenz that you could use cyclical patterns to predict weather but hasn't yet accepted what Lorenz discovered. That you can't actually forecast weather by using cycles - you can forecast trends fairly well but not day to day or week to week or even month to mont or year to year. What Lorenz ultimately discovered was something we now call chaos theory and coined the term "Butterfly effect" to explain why his theory didn't work. I explained all this 2 years ago in the thread I posted above.

Crikey, instead of blindly following someone on a purely belief basis open your eyes, do some research, search out multiple points of reference that you can use to come to a conclusion and after weighing up the facts be prepared to defend what you are saying in public. That is what I did. I investigated the facts, I started with an open mind and looked at the possibility that what he was saying was possible because I didn't know if he was on to something or not.

Turns out that what I found wasn't very complimentary which was pretty sad because here was a bloke who had spent a fair chunk of his life doggedly hanging on to theory that has no credence, who ekes out a living selling his 'opinions' in an Almanac and who is now almost a national disgrace in NZ for the way he tried to finagle himself into the earthquake picture by making predictions of further huge earthquakes that caused nothing but fear and panic when they didn't occur.

If anything I feel sorry for him as everything he has worked for is for nothing.

The really sad thing is that these comments will also be able to be found by anyone doing any research on him and that can only make him appear even worse as the amount of negative entries far out weigh any positive ones.

I have no idea if he can predict an ENSO Phase but based on his previous lack of success I very much doubt that he can.

Unprovoked attack - didn't I mention this earlier? You need a new script Ken.

The last thing I want is for you to be banned. It is in everyones best interests for you to continue to post.

But what I do want is that people who read these forums don't go away with the impression that because you are allowed to post here that that Weatherzone lends any credence to your theories because they don't, anymore than they lend any credence to my posts.

Ken in case you have forgotten you can press the Notify button to alert a Mod if you feel I have stepped over the mark and it will be dealt with accordingly. I fully expect my posts to be deleted but before they are any number of people will have already read them and checked teh links.