Thanks Arnost, for your welcoming remarks. Carl Smith was a personal friend. His and my theories are identical.
Just to correct, I did not hawk my services and I don't even have any for ENSO. I am abiding by the rules here, which is why I came on here and spelled out some lines of theory, hopefully to get some discussion going about lunar declination. But instead others brought up and attacked my business and I was obliged to defend. I am disappointed that mods did not step in and maintain civility. It means I am still vulnerable to personal attack from posters here. And I feel one should be able to discuss a method without being accused of proselytising, and one should equally be able to be critical of other methods. cheers

Post #1113400 - 08-07-2012 08:29



ROFL

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/winter-wet-prompts-flood-warning/22048

Winter wet prompts flood warning
Tuesday July 10, 2012 - 13:43 EST

Heavy rain is falling across large parts of regional Queensland with Townsville in the north recording its wettest July day in more than 60 years.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued a flood warning for coastal rivers and creeks between Innisfail and Ayr in the state's north.

More than 100 millimetres of rain has fallen in many areas between Myola, north of Cairns and Townsville since 9:00am (AEST) yesterday.

The Townsville region has recorded between 80 and 100 millimetres easily exceeding the previous july record of 51 millimetres in a day set in 1950.

Senior BOM forecaster Bill O'Connor says the rainfall in the far north has been much heavier than expected, with 112 millimetres falling at Myola.

"There has been 45 millimetres at Babinda and totals generally through the Cairns area anywhere up to about 50 millimetres," Mr O'Connor said.

"We had that good on shore flow all through yesterday and that mid level trough just stood up a little bit sharper than what we were anticipating.

"Overnight here at the Cairns airport we've ended up with 35 millimetres which is more than our monthly average of 29."

Further heavy falls are expected throughout the day and fast river and creek rises are likely to follow.

There have also been good falls in the state's central west and graziers will welcome another rain band expected in the region on Thursday.

Longreach has had 58 millimetres, with Blackall recording 29 and Winton 26.

Longreach Mayor Joe Owens says winter falls help keep moisture in the soil and boost pastures.

"Thunderstorms are unusual at this time of year - we don't expect a lot of rain," Councillor Owens said.

"Once you get over that couple of inches at this time of year it is very welcome and will do more good than harm.

"We've been through some very tough years in the last 10 or 12, so it is about time it turned around to give us a few good ones for a change."


- ABC

© ABC 2012

All this hype over an el nino and all we're getting is rain rain and more rain and freezing temps.. just won't stop. I guess our only hope is rain now means = drier spring.

Haha caught out once again!

Two bets Ken will edit his original post and claim he never said this. Or he'll claim that 'likely' and 'pretty dry' actually means there could be major rain events occurring while it's dry!

Yes ARNOST enjoying studying the weather
I would like to be a WZ meteorlogical motor mouth and get a badge on my avatar.LOL
Is this a good idea? l mean about being a motor mouth.LOL
At the moment my avatar says weather freak and that about sums it up
I believe if l get to motor mouth stage l am past the point of return from what l a can observe..LOL

and about ENSO
I am hoping to monitor the High pressure couplets in the pacific ocean, through the rest of the ENSO season and the strength of trades and there effect on SST's in the pacific

Here below posted is the position of the Highs in the pacific and the associated trade wind strength atm

Of note is the Northern pacific high which is quite to the west atm
. This high l believe becomes less predominant in our summer

the southern hemisphere pacific high is sitting nicely in position and looking quite strong

Notice the trade winds are stronger on the western side of the pacific and weaker on the east

Considering the stronger trade wind stream along the western pacific equatorial will create some stronger cold upwelling and SST's will cool in NINO 4 region? with this set up
or
the text book says the trades will push the warm water to the west?
Important because one will give El nino the other La nina
'
Over to the east pacific ,off the coast of Nth America the trades are weaker and the warm sst's causing some nice convection in the trough on the sat pic as well as some developing Tropical storms /and cyclone activity
As trades are weak there ,the trough area should warm and produce warmer SST's especially with lack of surface wind.

This should continue the developing El Nino SST trend with warming Nino 1 and 2

Any way .. a theory on the drawing board..
I am keeping some snaps to monitor progress every now and again
( sorry. the yellow lines are trade winds and not a good color and hard to see )

( PS.. I think the warmer waters in the westrn pacific marked by a black rectangle are normal for this time of year)

Yes, interesting freak fall after no rain all month. Like I said, trend should be pretty dry now till September IMO. Take it or leave it, it's only an opinion.

Using a method similar to Ken Rings also prompted by mentoring from Carl Smith, I have prepared daily forecast maps for Australia for the next two years from the posted raw data sets provided from and by the BOM.

I have covered all of the expenses from my own pocket and am asking for no compensation, have no commercial content on my web site, and I provide this service to you the people of Australia out of the goodness of my heart.

The process by which I have derived this forecast is posted on my research pages, I hope you enjoy using this process as much as I enjoyed putting it together.

http://www.aerology.com/?location=Australia

I see that the latest posstive SSt's have backed off a bit along the coast of Peru.

No its a forecast, slight difference. Either way it was wrong, spectacularly so.

Hey Arnost did you manage to add the additional ENSO index guesses to that chart? Im still thinking warm neutral. The fact that we are in Mid July and there is still no clear indication of which way this season will go leads me to beleive that it will be at the very least a neutral year. Will be an interesting month or so ahead.

http://www.aerology.com/?location=Australia
reproducibility is a feature of real science, the ability to predict probable outcomes into the future is the proof of a valid construct, the percent of correct predictions is a better gauge than random testing. I have tried to reproduce the results Ken Ring gets by using the raw empirical data, slightly different method but by the same lunar declinational cyclic atmospheric global circulation patterns.

Due to short term solar and outer planet interferences in the 6558 day long lunar cyclic patterns not all days will be predictable by lunar declination alone. The next step for me will be to construct algorithms for the surges in solar wind that cause the sudden shifts in severe weather, to further develop the effects on the resultant by solar influences.

http://research.aerology.com/severe-weather/derecho-storm-seen-from-space/

What a cop out. Don't try and pretend you only look at trends. You fight tooth and nail to pass yourself off as 'forecasting' freak events such as the Boxing Day Tsunami and numerous severe weather events, and yet you're completely clueless about this particular event.

I think there are two ways of looking at this (re: prediction vs. opinion):

1. Making a prediction (giving all relevant details).
2. Giving an opinion on what’s possible, but not actually going into detail.

So is it possible to clarify? I don’t know. But I do think it’s a fine line.

The difference between prediction and opinion is only in the eye of the beholder. A person might predict that crossing a road may be dangerous at rush hour. It is the same as having an opinion. It doesn't imply a certain accident will always occur, only a trend, a potential. It is something people who don't accept longrange methods seize on as a handle. But another may predict the end of the world on a certain date with no leeway. Science tries to predict using past observations. That's what science is, and some scientists try for more precision than others. I am only concerned with trends, but also need a focus date. But taking that as a literal date is not what I do. It is only a problem if you make it one.

What the, I would have thought this is done, just pages of dribble.

I'm amazed at the current reading of the SOI, and SST's and we are still getting unexpected rain along the east coast. I do recall getting out of the norm winter storms in 1997 during that El-nino.

Trades are still Easterly on the coast Tempest, so while that is feeding into the inland trough there will not be any dry spells. I think as this evolves it wont bring any dryness regardless whether it reaches El nino status or not.

Dryness or not between now and November is fairly immaterial because El Nino cannot be called off on for 6 months. Forecasters need to sort whether or not they think the coming tropical cyclone season will be active. In the current lunar cycle the next tropical cyclones should be on the lighter side and probably late, and the unsettled systems that form should rapidly breakdown into ineffective depressions that carry a lot of rain. If so, we can stop worrying about El Nino for either this or next year.

Zonal current anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific continued to be much less than average (backwards really) in June.

This is now five months in a row.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/xy/mnth.anom.xy.u15m.2012.06.gif







Heat content at the Equator increased but there is still a considerable amount of cooler water left over from the previous La Ninas above 5S, 5N


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/xy/mnth.anom.xy.h300.2012.06.gif

One of the factors contributing to the constant rainbands over eastern Oz appears to be the warm SST anomalies in the northern Coral Sea. The prevailing ESE'lies there blow over this area, carry the moisture higher up into the atmosphere with the increased convection, eventually curving down across the east coast & experiencing further upslide as it flows poleward. Of course, the synpotic scale systems are also co-operating.

To illustrate this better, I ran the HYSPLIT trajectory scheme using GFS initial data to see what likely paths the air would take over a period of 84hrs if it started from a point around 15,000ft over the warm SST anomalies (convection could easily carry the moisture to this height here) starting from 10am on the Wed we just had. You can see from the below Google Earth interface with SST anomalies as the base layer, that a considerable proportion would eventually curve down over QLD as they rose into the upper level NW'lies:






An example from recent PME (WATL) forecast rainfall maps which shows the heavy rainfall in the northern Coral Sea, some of which gets drawn down over the east coast & enhanced further:




The amount of change in degrees C of SST anomalies in the Australian region between the 10th of last month & the 10th of this month - you can see enhanced warming closer in to the far north QLD coast in more recent times which may suggest eastern QLD at least, may not have seen the last of the rain events just yet:

You have access to some tools I only dream of Ken. Please post up more if you have the ime to spare! And thanks.

.

Just a question, is a degree or two of SST going to make such a difference? Or is it indeed the prevailing wind that is the driver?