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#1211414 - 25/09/2013 14:27 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park has passed 32.2 degrees (90 deg F) earlier this afternoon, 13 days earlier than I predicted.

My guess is that we're in for a hot mid Spring until the pattern on the East Coast switches to maritime some time between late October to mid November, with regular SE changes bringing low cloud and showers a couple of days each week. The Summer to follow may be hot or cool, there are examples of both after a hot early Spring. Hopefully it will bring some good storms and hot sunny days as well as enough rain where needed.

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#1211646 - 27/09/2013 12:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
From my records, it ALMOST made it to 25C on August 31st, 24.7C to be precise, followed by 24.9C on September 1st (Father's Day), and 24.3C on September 2nd. My first 25C+ day was September 3rd with 26.0C, followed by 28.1C on September 4th! Well ahead of my initial prediction of September 13th...

Now awaiting my first 30C+ day, should come any day now but unlikely for the next week at least with the way our temperatures will be fluctuating as a series of cold fronts come through smile

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#1211648 - 27/09/2013 12:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
For Corryong, so far the town still hasn't hit 25C+, but according to Weatherzone the highest it's reached so far this month is 24.2C on September 25th (there's been a total of 10 days with maximums about 20C+ so far this month), I'm still guessing that the first 25C+ day for the Upper Murray region of Northeast Victoria and Southeast NSW will be on or around October 10th smile

For Merimbula on the NSW South Coast, my guess for the 25C+ day (September 3rd) was pretty close (26.6C on September 5th), but I was totally off the mark with my first 30C+ prediction for October 11th!! When I checked on Weatherzone I was amazed that it had topped 30.2C on September 25th!! crazy

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#1212549 - 04/10/2013 17:17 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1441
Melbourne:
First 30C+ day: October 25th
First 35C+ day: November 15th
First 40C+ day: January 7th

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#1212649 - 05/10/2013 20:49 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The first 25C+ day for Corryong, Northeast Victoria was September 30th with a high of 25.2C, well ahead of my prediction of October 10th smile

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#1213060 - 10/10/2013 17:06 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The 35 degree milestone was reached at Sydney Olympic Park today, October 10, with a maximum of 37.0 This is 35 days earlier than I predicted / guessed.

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#1213104 - 10/10/2013 21:44 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I thought it was going to top 30C in Melbourne yesterday as predicted (so close to my October 10th 2013 although out by 24 hours)... but no, it only made it to 26.7C in the City (26.6C at my house in the Dandenongs), I'll try for October 25th instead poke

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#1213106 - 10/10/2013 21:52 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I had meant to add this to my earlier post but I think the edit time expired. It almost made it to 35C in Merimbula today (34.6C to be precise) but I won't be surprised if it reaches 35C+ between now and my prediction of November 18th! The heat is really building up north!!

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#1213632 - 14/10/2013 20:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Correction, it was actually 34.8C in Merimbula, sorry for the mistake poke

Looks like Corryong may be in for its first 30C+ day next Monday (initial forecast high is 29C at this stage, just have to wait and see I suppose)

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#1214576 - 22/10/2013 13:55 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Melbourne's finally had its first 30C+ day for the season, which happened on Sunday October 20th (31.6C in the City and 32.2C at my end) smile

Corryong still hasn't quite got there, only reaching 28.1C on Sunday.

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#1217167 - 09/11/2013 20:38 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Corryong has FINALLY reached the good old 30C+ for the first AND second time this season, well ahead of my November 17th prediction!

It dropped to only 4.1C on the morning of November 7th (brr...) but then topped 31.1C in the afternoon!! Pretty impressive temperature change over the course of 24 hours!

The following day, November 8th, it dropped to 11.6C in the morning and by the afternoon it had topped 30.7C! smile


Still awaiting the first 35C+ days for Melbourne, Corryong, and Merimbula, but they don't look like they'll arrive anytime soon...

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#1222888 - 29/11/2013 20:53 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Although the Melbourne CBD still hasn't reached the 35C+ milestone this season (the City may top 35C next Monday due to hot northerly winds ahead of an approaching storm system expected over Victoria next week, the first for Summer 2013/2014), my thermometer registered 35.2C on Wednesday, well past my November 17th prediction; it only topped 33.1C in the City! poke

Corryong is forecast to hit 35C next Tuesday, over a week ahead of my initial prediction (December 12th). Still waiting to see Merimbula crack 35C and even soar to 40C... it's going to happen sooner or later...

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#1225665 - 18/12/2013 16:28 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: MOUNTAIN h2o]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 681
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Originally Posted By: MOUNTAIN h2o
Hobart , considering we have had 5 cold days this Winter so far and today will get to 18 degrees , here we go . LOL

20C sometime before the end of this month
25C next month
30C September
35C October the 15th
40C December Xmas day
45C Australia Day 2014
45C PLUS February the 7th and very possible after last year
eek

Looks like I will be one week early on the Xmas day guess, should be easily 40 tomorrow !!


Edited by MOUNTAIN h2o (18/12/2013 16:30)

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#1225805 - 19/12/2013 19:20 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first 40C+ day happened today... 40.8C at 4:26pm at my end, a week after my initial prediction of December 12th...

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#1225916 - 20/12/2013 14:22 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Here we are in the depths of Winter, although there's not much Wintry stuff happening or on the horizon. So I thought I would revive this thread, get out my crystal ball and look into the warmer months ahead.

I'll make predictions for Sydney, but I won't go for Observatory Hill. Between heat island effects and exposure to marginal seabreezes and weak Southerlies, that site is just too tricky after October. It can fail to reach 30 when the rest of the Metro area is baking in high 30's. On the other hand, Sydney Olympic Park is probably as good a guide as any to what most Sydneysiders experience.

So, based upon some local knowledge, gut feel, guesswork, expectation of a warm winter and warm early Spring, but not much expertise, here are my predictions for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
20c - not an issue in Sydney - already reached July 4. 
      Expect about 5 more times in July and 10+ times in
      August.

25c - August 6 - Spring seems to start in August these days.

30c - September 21

32.2 (90F) - October 8

35c - November 15

37.8 (100F) November 30

40c - December 20


Last year, it turned out we needed another milestone, i.e. 45c, But I don't think we'll need it this year.


Today marked the first occurrence of 37.8 and 40 at Sydney Olympic park. The former was 20 days later than predicted, the latter spot on, no doubt a coincidence.

That's all the milestones reached. I don't think we'll be needing 45. Today could well turn out to be the hottest day of the Summer.

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#1229250 - 04/01/2014 23:15 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - September 7
35 - October 15
40 - December 20


Townsville finally reached 35 with 35.1 on 30/12 followed by 35.6 on 31/12. I was way off.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1240051 - 07/02/2014 17:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: LightningGus]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Originally Posted By: GusO
My guesses this year:
25C- August 12th
30C- September 15th
35C- November 20th
37.8C (100 F)- November 27th
40C- Won't happen this summer

Didn't do too badly this year, wouldn't have picked 2013/14 as being one of the hottest spring/summer seasons on record though.

25C- 26.2C, August 11th (1 day off!!!)
30C- 31.7C September 11th (5 days off)
35C- 35.9C September 26th (waaaaayyyyy off, was the earliest 35+ day on record though)
37.8C- 39.1C December 29th (32 days off)
40 C- WRONG! 41.0C January 4th (equal hottest day on record and first 40+ day since 2002)

Edit: Might get the ball rolling for autumn/winter predictions too:
10C- March 26th
5C- April 30th
0C- June 11th
-5C- Won't happen this winter


Edited by GusO (07/02/2014 18:09)
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 565mm ytd

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#1269600 - 12/07/2014 10:27 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
With Spring starting in about a month, judging by recent years, it's time to revive this thread. The likelihood of an El Nino would suggest a hot Spring/ Summer to come. The 12 month rainfall forecast for Sydney suggests a wet August / September followed by a dry late Spring and Summer. But a Summer dominated by cool Southerlies can still be dry.

So, basically, we don't know. Anyway, here are some guesses for Sydney Olympic Park, based upon the experience of recent years:

Code:
   First 25:              August 15
   First 30:              September 15
   First 32.2 (90 F):     September 28
   First 35               October 22
   First 37.8 (100 F)     November 26
   First 40               December 18

Based upon stats at Bankstown, 35 will almost certainly be reached some time between October and March, there's about an 85% probability that 37.8 will be reached and about a 60% chance of 40. Bankstown reached 45 once in 46 years and 44 four times.

20 degrees now occurs regularly during Winter in Sydney and has already occured twice this July at Olympic Park.

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#1269615 - 12/07/2014 13:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Those are pretty good predictions Steve, at least in the context of the climate of the 21st Century. Usually the first 25C is mid August, first 30C about a month later and the first true "hot" day above 90F occurring just after the equinox.

A few of the ensembles were suggesting a cooler spring, but even if it's cooler overall, that doesn't preclude warm spikes from occurring as we know.

I'll add a few things (basically a wild stab in the dark for these though):

First major bushfire: 3 September
First night above 20C at Canterbury AWS: November 27
First dewpoint above 20C at Canterbury AWS: December 20
"Monsoon" arrival***: February 15
Thunderstorm activity: Below average
Peak 850 hPa temp over Sydney: 30C, but will pass at night.

***The transition from "dry" summer to "wet" summer.

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#1269622 - 12/07/2014 15:14 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Albion Park

First 20C day (starting today): 29th July
First 25C day: 20th August
First 30C day: 1st October
First 35C day: 21st October
First 40C day: 2nd January
First 45C day: won't happen
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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