Page 5 of 10 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 >
Topic Options
#1269926 - 16/07/2014 00:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - August 30
35 - November 10
40 - Won't happen
45 - Won't happen
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

Top
#1269930 - 16/07/2014 01:38 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I'll have a shot for at guessing certain temperature milestones for the coming warm season for Melbourne: smile

First 20C+ day - August 21st
First 25C+ day - September 12th
First 30C+ day - October 15th
First 35C+ day - November 18th
First 40C+ day - December 10th
First 45C+ day - unlikely, and I hope it DOESN'T but I'll try for January 26th

As much as I'm looking forward to the warmer and hotter temperatures this coming late-winter/spring/summer period, we're going to need A LOT of rainfall up until the end of summer (at the least) to keep the bushfire risk in check! And more thunderstorm action this year please! A repeat of last summer is not wanted in my area this year. The only good summer is a wet one. If El Nino must make a comeback, then it had better be one like 2009-2010, which delivered unusually high summer rainfall in my area.

Top
#1271256 - 29/07/2014 16:36 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Some stations in Sydney have a decent chance of cracking 25C this Thursday (31 July) provided cloud stays away (which it's forecast to do). 925 mb temps of 14-15C are predicted. 25C days in July are pretty rare, despite 23-24C being reached pretty much every July these days.

Top
#1271534 - 31/07/2014 15:43 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A number of Sydney stations cracked 25 today, including Observatory Hill and the Airport. Sydney Olympic Park went close (24.8) but no cigar.

Top
#1271763 - 01/08/2014 09:43 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Surprised Sydney Olympic Park did not get there, it's usually one of the warmest spots in a westerly. Just goes to show that in a strong westerly, it's a bit of a lottery as to who gets the hottest air parcels. The PWS near me maxed out at a very warm 25.2C, and I measured 24.3C at about 3:45 PM which was about 0.3C warmer than Canterbury at the time, so the PWS readings is probably correct. Holsworthy also made it above 25C and further south, Kiama and Albion Park almost hit 26C.

Next off the list will be 80F (26.7C). You'd be a brave soul to bet against at least one 80F day this August, I'd say it will be crossed in the next 2-3 weeks for sure, with 30C at least a 50/50 chance before the month is out.


Edited by DrizzlyBear (01/08/2014 09:48)

Top
#1274071 - 22/08/2014 18:14 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
A day later than I predicted but close enough. We've entered the 20C+ range for the first time in 87 days (last 20C+ reading I measured was on May 27th 2014). Today's high was 23.0C. smile

Top
#1275003 - 01/09/2014 00:29 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I thought I might have a go at predicting dates when certain 'high' overnight minimum temperatures are likely to be reached at my end this season! Most of these are just wild guesses, so I'm expecting to be way off the mark!! Lol smile

First 15C+ - September 13th (unless it happens tonight)
First 20C+ night - October 16th
First 25C+ night - November 26th
First 30C+ night - February 7th (hope it doesn't happen though)

Top
#1275064 - 01/09/2014 15:50 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Today it reached 24.6 at Sydney Olympic Park, so just missed out on 25. Sydney Airport seems to have been the only Sydney station to crack 25. Observatory Hill had a seabreeze and peaked at 23.6.

It looks like a cool week coming up, so the first 25 for most of Sydney won't occur until well into September, compared to my prediction back on July 12 of August 15.

Unlike recent years, Spring in Sydney did not begin in August, which was in fact the coolest month of the Winter. It looks like we have at least another week of Winter on the way. Sydney flipped into a maritime (East Coast Low / Southerly / Easterly) pattern on August 12. If this pattern persists, this Spring will be very different from the last couple.


Edited by Steve777 (01/09/2014 15:57)
Edit Reason: Clarification

Top
#1275092 - 01/09/2014 18:49 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
We have already broken the 25C milestone with 26.1C reached on 31st July. Next one will be 30C which I've tipped to happen on 1st October.

Yeah it certainly will be alot different from the last couple. The last few years have seen spring start early and be generally warm, then Summer slacks off to it's usual no heat seabreezy pattern.

Maybe this year it could be flipped, where we see a slow start and cold spring, which leads up to an unusually hot summer.


Edited by Reillyp (01/09/2014 18:53)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1275132 - 01/09/2014 21:07 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
So my first 15C+ minimum milestone for the season has been reached, and right on cue! It's my first such overnight minimum since May 27th when we had a minimum of 16.6C (97 days ago). smile

Today was one of those 'flipped' days for me weatherwise, typical of early-spring, with the night warmer than the day! Today's high of 16.8C was actually at around 1am, and the low was 15.3C just before 10am. The temperature rose up almost to 16C before a cold front hit around lunchtime, then conditions grew colder afterwards! crazy

Now, for fun, I'll attempt to make similar temperature predictions for the season for both Corryong, Northeast Victoria and Merimbula, NSW South Coast. No point worrying about Fiji lol smile


Corryong

First 15C+ night - November 15th
First 20C+ night - January 6th
First 25C+ night - Unlikely
First 30C+ night - Unlikely

First 20C+ day - Already happened today, with a high of 20.0C according to Weatherzone Australia (need to check this)
First 25C+ day - October 16th
First 30C+ day - November 14th
First 35C+ day - December 8th
First 40C+ day - January 6th
First 45C+ day - Unlikely


Merimbula

First 15C+ night - November 15th
First 20C+ night - Unlikely
First 25C+ night - Unlikely
First 30C+ night - Unlikely

First 20C+ day - Already happened today, with a high of 21.0C according to Weatherzone Australia (need to check this)
First 25C+ day - September 15th
First 30C+ day - September 28th
First 35C+ day - December 15th
First 40C+ day - January 7th (otherwise unlikely)
First 45C+ day - Unlikely

Top
#1275983 - 09/09/2014 15:39 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It hit 25.0 at Sydney Olympic Park earlier this afternoon. It looks like that will be the maximum. It is the warmest day there since May 26.

So, the first 25 of the current season, 25 days later than I predicted.


Edited by Steve777 (09/09/2014 15:42)
Edit Reason: Spelling

Top
#1276456 - 14/09/2014 18:00 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1868
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Not a prediction but an observation. I think the first 40 for the country was reached today. 40.4 at Mandora at 1159 local time. Some one can correct me if I missed it but I did not find any 40 before today on AWN.
Lots of places have come very close in the last few days but this is the first I have seen for the upcoming Summer.

I was struggling to decide where to post this comment but meh, this'll do.

Top
#1276513 - 15/09/2014 12:29 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Was looking for the answer to this very question when I saw 30C@ 925 over the Pilbara. Thanks Kizz. Of course, many places out there may have registered 40C a little earlier, but it's a "tree falling in the woods" situation. I'm guessing mid September is about average for the first official 40C.

Regarding Sydney temps, some stations reached 25C as early as July 31, but I don't think anywhere has topped the next milestone which is 80F/26.7C. Some of the hotter stations may have a crack at that tomorrow if the cloud clears early enough.

Still no 30C days on the horizon yet for Sydney, that's more a product of the synoptic setups than a lack of heat. Ceduna got to 35C on the 8th which would usually result in a 30C in Sydney 1-2 days later, however the NW'lys haven't been strong enough. I see both Brisbane and Perth have 30C days forecast this week (Wednesday and Saturday respectively), however my gut is that Brisbane will fall just short again. It's also pretty difficult to get 30C in Perth at this time of year.

Top
#1276524 - 15/09/2014 14:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6321
Loc: Near Yeppoon
How come Rockhampton is forecast for a cooler than normal 22 deg next Monday ? or is that an error ?
_________________________

Top
#1276742 - 17/09/2014 18:11 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville reached 30.2 today, 17/9.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

Top
#1276847 - 18/09/2014 17:36 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1205
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I'm guessing Melbourne's 1st 30+ day will be october 2nd
1st 40+ day will be December 17th
and finally the first night over 30 will be new years eve

bringing on a ripper storm season through october and november to kick off the annual bushfire season which, wont be catastrophic, but will be fairly severe

that is the extent that I am willing to forecast
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
#1276889 - 19/09/2014 00:26 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Dawoodman]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
bringing on a ripper storm season through october and november to kick off the annual bushfire season which, wont be catastrophic, but will be fairly severe


Yes hope you're right about the Storm Season Dawoodman, and not just in October and November, but also in December, January, and February... and I hope the bushfire season will be far less severe than you make out, a wet summer is better than a dry summer! smile

Just checking the records and forecasts, Corryong in Northeast Victoria has indeed made it past the first 20C+ milestone for the season, with 20.1C at Corryong Airport on Monday September 1st 2014! And the forecast says that the town could hit 25C on Thursday September 25th 2014 (next week), well ahead of my anticipated October 16th 2014 milestone! smile

As for Merimbula on the NSW South Coast, the town hit 20.5C on Monday September 1st 2014, so yep it also made it past the first 20C+ milestone for the season! Still awaiting the first 25C+ day now! smile

Edit: And as for Melbourne, looks like the first 25C+ day is late in the coming, but the forecast calls for 25C in the City next Wednesday (September 24th 2014) and Thursday (September 25th 2014)! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/09/2014 00:28)

Top
#1276908 - 19/09/2014 09:01 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Looks like our first official 20 will be next Monday. Bit later than recent years. Usually hit 20 sometime late in august.

Top
#1276939 - 19/09/2014 16:14 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Amazingly, Canterbury AWS hasn't officially cracked 25.0C yet. I've looked back at the (short term) records for this site (1995-) and it's officially the latest in the series. A little bit academic though as it has reached 24.9C. In addition, some Sydney sites registered their first 25 way back on July 31 during that little "false spring". However, the last 25 moving into winter was in late May, much later than usual.

Bizarrely, Perth looks like it will be the first capital city (ex. Darwin) to crack 30C for this warming season. In a normal spring, Perth usually enjoys protection from the heat due to the prevailing westerlies. Not this year, when the flow over the continent has been very anomalously east to north-east. That tends to shield Sydney and Brisbane from heat, as we have seen so far.

Will be tough to get 25 at Merimbula also with the patterns atm. That area usually gets an early southerly or easterly whenever westerlies are weak.

Top
#1276958 - 19/09/2014 20:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah certainly is strange this spring. Brisbane or Sydney almost always cracks the 30C mark first. This pattern atm is almost like summer, except a fair few degrees colder. I'm just eagerly waiting for some warmth to replace this dismal cold.

Yeah Merimbula is in bad spot when it comes to heat, every variable seems to work against heat spell's on the far south coast. Stronger NEer's than areas further north because of the usual large temp gradient between inland and coastal and cool ocean temps make the seabreeze colder. Early southerlies (as mentioned) and mountains can create orographic lift.

Even in summer Merimbula can struggle to hit 25C, especially if SST's are still cold and if it's La Nina.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
Page 5 of 10 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 >


Who's Online
12 registered (BIG T, Bundy, aussiestormfreak, Moz, Ricky, Mathew, wrxflame, betsuin, Jimi, TindraTim, Hurricane force, 1 invisible), 307 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Adele, David Simpson., HannahJayne, krambo, krambo22, Pancake, weather noob
Forum Stats
29421 Members
32 Forums
23730 Topics
1469267 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image