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#1277007 - 20/09/2014 09:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes, as per the above posts regarding Merimbula, it's not often that the town can make it even to 25C even in January, but in my experience as a summer visitor I've seen the temperature rise beyond 30C a few times, generally only up to about 32C. The humidity may make it feel a lit warmer though. smile

But the worst time I was there was when it hit an all-time high of 44.2C on January 18th 2014! Considering the average January high is only 24.7C, the heat was BRUTUAL!!! frown

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#1277011 - 20/09/2014 10:04 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Still cooler than Sydney's 45-46C on that day, lol.

SSTs are around 1C above average at the moment off the NSW coast, probably due to the lack of westerly cold fronts which draw cooler air from land to ocean. That won't necessarily be the case in summer though, an extended run of NE'lys can really drop ocean temps on the east coast due to upwelling. We saw that last spring/summer with extremely warm SSTs (22C or so) off Sydney in September, but periods around 20C in January!

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#1277027 - 20/09/2014 12:00 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes there were incessant northeasterlies while I was holidaying on the NSW South Coast last summer and I'm guessing they'll be back once more this summer! At times they wreaked havoc with the waves by either flattening and suppressing them or by whipping them up and making them a bit too dangerous to play in without being more careful! frown

On the plus side, the northeasterlies acted a bit like a natural air-conditioning system, and although humidity was added in and the sun had a kick, not one single day between January 9th and 19th 2014 hit the 30.0C mark in Merimbula! Bega meanwhile, since it's further inland and in a valley between the Great Dividing Range and the Mimosa Rocks National Park/Tanja State Forest, had six days with 30C+ highs in the same period, three of which hit 35C or more, with the highest being 38.1C on January 17th. smile

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#1277033 - 20/09/2014 14:08 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Yeah, Bega is in a natural depression, a little like Penrith, so heat can really build up there. The little range to the east is effective in blocking the mild maritime air in winter as well so frosty mornings are common. Tathra on the adjacent coast very rarely sees over 30C (even 25 is a struggle), it's a great spot for us heat haters. The natural environment of the Far South Coast is also hard to beat- it's not nearly as developed as the North Coast of NSW.

Merimbula attracts many Mexicans due to the relatively warmer waters smile. Go round the corner to Mallacoota and you're back in the Southern Ocean cold though.

Getting somewhat back on topic, some models had a 30C day in Sydney at the end of next week but the NE'lys looks like they might win the day again...

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#1277040 - 20/09/2014 14:30 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: HumphreyBear]
Dr Philosophy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2009
Posts: 152
Loc: Campbelltown, NSW
It's official: Perth is the first capital city this warm season to crack the big 3-0, in which it is currently 30.2C as of 12:25pm AWST.

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#1277057 - 20/09/2014 16:37 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3687
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Perth has broken its September record in some style; currently 34.1 (previous record 32.7). Even larger record-breaking margins have happened at Perth Airport (2.7) and Rottnest Island (3.8), while other September records have been set at, among others, Cape Leeuwin and Albany.

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#1277137 - 21/09/2014 11:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
GFS had 23-24C at 925 mb over Perth for some time leading up to Saturday, well done to it. The records themselves are disturbing, though not altogether surprising given the synoptic setup which is pretty rare in September.

Meanwhile the warmth in Sydney later in the week looks to have been downgraded, OCF values are only in the mid 20s for the western suburbs now. That will take us into October- one wonders whether that might be it for any sustained zonal pattern now.

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#1277238 - 22/09/2014 11:15 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Melbourne's forecasted to breach the 25C+ barrier tomorrow, with a summer-like top of 26C for the City - right on cue with the 2014 Spring Equinox, but well past my predicted date of September 12th lol. Unless it hits 25C today, even though the forecast only calls for 24C. smile

Corryong may hit 25C tomorrow (well ahead of my predicted date of October 16th), even though the current forecast temperature only says 24C. smile

Merimbula, meanwhile, will continue to struggle to make it past the early-20s for at least the next few days... poke

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#1278179 - 29/09/2014 12:50 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3442
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park passed 30 degrees for the first time this season shortly after midday, a fortnight later than my prediction / prognostication / guess. It was also the first time that site hit 80 degrees F (26.7) this season.

So far it has reached 31.1, so 90F (32.2) is a good chance.

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#1278194 - 29/09/2014 16:32 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3442
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A few places in Sydney reached 32.2 today, with Observatory Hill (32.9) and the Airport (33.5) being the hot spots - maybe the heat island effect.

Sydney Olympic Park, however, just missed it (31.9).

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#1278219 - 29/09/2014 23:02 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6208
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
Albion Park

First 20C day (starting today): 29th July
First 25C day: 20th August
First 30C day: 1st October
First 35C day: 21st October
First 40C day: 2nd January
First 45C day: won't happen



Wow, I was only 2 days off my predicted 30C mark, as it hit 31C today!
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1278285 - 30/09/2014 13:18 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3442
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
First 32.2C / 90F at Sydney Olympic Park earlier this afternoon, two days later than I predicted.

It could reach 35 today but I think that's now unlikely. It has reached 35 at Penrith.

Sea breeze is now established at OH so it probably won't get warmer ther.

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#1279698 - 13/10/2014 00:44 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first 30C+ day for the same came two days later than anticipated, but still that's pretty close! I got to 32.8C yesterday (October 12th). smile

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#1282307 - 28/10/2014 21:44 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
And my first first 35C+ day has come well ahead of my prediction (November 18th), with a high of 36.3C on October 22nd!! eek

Still awaiting my first 20C+ night, I predicted it would happen on October 16th, but it hasn't happened! A few nights so far this season have managed to stay above 20C for a few hours but the temperature would eventually cool into the teens; the warmest overnight minimum this season for me so far is 19.5C on October 19th. poke

As for Corryong, Northeast Victoria, the town reached its first 25C+ day on October 5th, with a high of 27.2C (initial predicted date was October 16th). It's first 30C+ day came on October 23rd, with a high of 30.6C (initial predicted date was November 14th). smile

And Merimbula on the NSW South Coast has had its first 25C+ day, with a top of 27.8C on September 30th, 15 days after my initial predicted date of September 15th. And its first 15C+ night happened on October 24th (well before my predicted date of November 15th) with a low of 15.5C. smile

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#1282687 - 01/11/2014 12:32 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3442
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
According to yesterday's 3:00 PM Bulletin, yesterday's maximum at Sydney Olympic Park was 36 rounded, so it definitely passed the 35 milestone yesterday October 31, 9 days later than my prediction.

It is currently 35.2 at that site.

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#1284011 - 14/11/2014 13:54 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3442
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I note that the temperature has passed 37.8 C (100 F) at Sydney Olympic Park earlier this afternoon, for the first time this warm season. This is 12 days earlier than my mid-Winter guess.

It could reach 40 but it probably won't today. On the other hand, Penrith and Richmond, both now on 39 point something, could well do so


Edited by Steve777 (14/11/2014 13:58)
Edit Reason: Second para

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#1285249 - 21/11/2014 15:46 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3442
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park just missed out on 40 today (max 39.9 @ 3:12PM). The sea breeze seems firmly established now so it will be unlikely to take another shot at 40 today.

A number of sites in Western Sydney reached 40 including Bankstown, Gosford, Penrith and Richmond.

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#1291446 - 13/12/2014 19:01 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 402
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - August 30
35 - November 10
40 - Won't happen
45 - Won't happen

Finally reached and exceeded 35 today 13/12: 36.1 courtesy of a northwards moving trough.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1292339 - 18/12/2014 14:17 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Still awaiting my first 40C+ day for the season, but so far the closest I've come to that mark is 37.8C on November 30th. So far this season I've clocked up 18 days of 30C+ temperatures (the first 30C+ day was on October 12th with a high of 32.8C), of which 7 have topped 35C or more (the first 35C+ day was on October 22nd with a high of 36.3C).

I'm kinda relieved, for the time being at least; after last summer's vicious heatwaves and bushfires, I have a hatred for hot, dry weather, so if we crack 40C+ this season it had better be humid with a high chance of heavy rain and storms developing! smile

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#1292347 - 18/12/2014 14:49 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5765
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
I'll have a shot for at guessing certain temperature milestones for the coming warm season for Melbourne: smile

First 20C+ day - August 21st
First 25C+ day - September 12th
First 30C+ day - October 15th
First 35C+ day - November 18th
First 40C+ day - December 10th
First 45C+ day - unlikely, and I hope it DOESN'T but I'll try for January 26th



As for the City of Melbourne (not my house in the southeast from where I've been taking and sharing my own observations):

The first 20C+ day came on August 22nd (21.2C)

The first 25C+ day came on September 23rd (25.8C)

The first 30C+ day came on October 12th (30.0C)

The first 35C+ day came on November 8th (35.2C)


Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
I thought I might have a go at predicting dates when certain 'high' overnight minimum temperatures are likely to be reached at my end this season! Most of these are just wild guesses, so I'm expecting to be way off the mark!! Lol smile

First 15C+ - September 13th (unless it happens tonight)
First 20C+ night - October 16th
First 25C+ night - November 26th
First 30C+ night - February 7th (hope it doesn't happen though)



The first 15C+ night came on September 1st (15.0C)

The first 20C+ night came on December 1st (21.1C)


As for my first 20C+ night, it happened on November 8th, with a low of 21.4C. The hottest night so far for me this season is December 14th, with a low of 21.6C. smile

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