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#1292350 - 18/12/2014 15:03 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Corryong's first 35C+ day occurred on November 14th, with a high of 37.9C. And the town's first 15C+ night followed straight afterwards, with a low of 17.3C on November 15th.

As for Merimbula, the town STILL hasn't hit 30C this season, with the hottest temperature only being 29.4C on November 20th. poke

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#1303300 - 25/01/2015 18:02 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It still hasn't reached 40 at Sydney Olympic Park this season and won't do so by the end of January. It just missed out on November 21 (when 39.9) although some Western Sydney stations did make it on that day. In fact Richmond cracked 45 on the Nov 23.

There may be more very hot days this season but they are less likely in February and almost unknown in March. It is likely that this is one of the 40% of seasons when it doesn't reach 40 in Sydney's middle ring.

Thinking about the coming Winter, there are no really interesting milestones near the coast. We may get our first sub-20 maximum this coming week and it may reach 30 in late April. First sub-16 max and sub 10 min are likely towards the end of May near the coast. Sub 10 max won't happen away from the tablelands.

The slide into Winter is gradual, with lots of warm days and nights on the way. The most conspicuous markers of the change of season in Sydney will be:

- the start of the NRL season - March 5 (or Rugby or AFL)
- the end of daylight saving (Apr 5)
- Deciduous trees start to turn (early April)
- Easter (same as end of Daylight Saving this year)

Away from the coast we have the first sub 5 and sub zero min and in some locations the first frost. Places above about 900 metres will have their first snow probably in June.

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#1303309 - 25/01/2015 18:16 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Agree that the cut off for a 40C day in Sydney is approaching. It certainly doesn't look like happening in the next 7 days. There is still time until mid Feb though, after that land temps back off from their summer peaks.

As for thinking about winter, I won't allow myself that luxury until the equinox. As you say, plenty of warm to hot weather ahead even if we don't get the extreme temps, particularly with SSTs so warm. On that note, one hot weather milestone still to come may be a DP above 25. May only happen if 850 temps also get to 25C.

I'll also eat my hat if we get a sub 20C max before Anzac Day in Sydney, apart from at elevated stations such as Terrey Hills. Bear in mind the Decile 1 maximum temperature for Jan/Feb is around 23C at most stations and stays above 20C until April.

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#1303517 - 26/01/2015 05:37 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Roberto Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2015
Posts: 3
What do you think about this lightnings map? http://lightandmaps.blogspot.com

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#1335316 - 15/07/2015 16:41 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
We could call tomorrow 'mid Winter's Day'. Although we are enjoying the snow and the cold spell, many of us are looking forward to the warmer months ahead. Spring is not far off, maybe only 4 to 6 weeks away. The wattles are in bloom, the jacarandas are turning yellow in preparation for their October displays and the days are just that bit longer than they were a couple of weeks ago. So here are my prognostications for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
First 20:         July 23. For once we aren't getting 20 degree days 
                  in mid Winter. Last one was June 24.

First 25:         August 22
First 30:         September 16
First 32.2 (90F): October 4 - yep, NRL Grand Final day.
First 35:         October 30

First 40:         November 28. Didn't happen last year but there is    
                  about an 80% chance of 40 being reached.

Hottest           43 on Jnuary 8

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#1335474 - 16/07/2015 15:34 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
For what it's worth (not very much), after the current cold spell ends next Tuesday, Accuweather has Sydney in average to above average temps until around the 13th of August. After that it goes below average again for the rest of August.***

Central Australia looks like it will heat up dramatically at the end of next week, so that first 25C day may be just around the corner, possibly at the beginning of August. If cold fronts stay away though, that heat won't get down here, so it's hard to predict at this stage.

***http://www.accuweather.com/en/au/sydney/22889/month/22889?view=table

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#1335514 - 16/07/2015 19:56 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
For Melbourne (including Belgrave where I live), my predictions for when certain temperature thresholds/milestones will be reached in the lead-up to summer are as follows:

First 20C+ day - August 21st
First 25C+ day - September 16th
First 30C+ day - October 12th
First 35C+ day - November 20th
First 40C+ day - December 23rd
First 45C+ day - January 26th (hopefully it doesn't come to fruition, I don't like hot, dry weather because of the bushfire risk!) frown

The last night for the winter season with a minimum of below 5C (along with the risk of frost) I'm predicting will be October 21st.

First 15C+ night - September 28th
First 20C+ night - November 21st
First 25C+ night - December 24th
First 30C+ night - February 8th (unlikely, it'll take a VICIOUS heatwave to keep the thermometer from dropping below 30C at night)

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#1335534 - 16/07/2015 20:53 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Yay, that time of year again. Love this whole predicting business! grin
First 20C+ day: Already happened
First 25C+ day: August 19th
First 30C+ day: September 11th
First 35C+ day: October 8th
First 100F/37.8C day: December 25th
First 40C+ day: Won't happen

Edit: I see we're doing nights now too...
First 10C+ night: July 23rd
First 15C+ night: September 12th
First 20C+ night: November 18th
First 25C+ night: Won't happen


Edited by GusO (16/07/2015 20:58)
_________________________
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2017 Rainfall: 565mm ytd

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#1335540 - 16/07/2015 21:36 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
For Albion Park;

First 20C day: Jul 28th
First 25C day: Aug 26th
First 30C day: Oct 3rd
First 35C day: Nov 11th
First 40C day: Jan 5th
First 45C day: Jan 13th


Edited by Wave Rider (16/07/2015 21:37)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1335544 - 16/07/2015 21:47 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
For Townsville:
First 20C+ day: Already happened*
First 25C+ day: Already happened*
First 30C+ day: August 31
First 35C+ day: October 23
First 100F/37.8C day: January 5
First 40C+ day: Won't happen

First 10C+ night: Already happened**
First 15C+ night: Already happened***
First 20C+ night: August 27
First 25C+ night: November 4

Maybe bending the rules a bit if this was to start yesterday but:
* Until this cold outbreak every day this month was 25+
** Until this cold outbreak every night this month was 10+
*** Night 15+ has been already been recorded five times this month
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1335611 - 17/07/2015 00:54 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Alice springs going for a top of 27c next Thurs, feels like a dream looking at that, ahh heavenly. Can only hope that warmth gets swept down and heralds in an early spring.

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#1335718 - 17/07/2015 12:22 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Agreed Long Home Run! Come September the 'pre-monsoon' Build-Up will fire-up across Northern Australia and the Outback! Can't wait for that heat to be sucked south into Southern Australia and onto the East Coast and merge with the cold air from Antarctica to generate the stormy weather we get during spring and summer! grin

At least we're now at the half-way mark through winter! So ready for August!! grin

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#1336076 - 20/07/2015 15:17 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
That heat over Central Australia is still there but now looks like it will be brief ahead of another SE surge from the next significant cold front. So it looks like the big seasonal change over the centre will be delayed for another couple of weeks at least.

Also pleasing to see cloud still training from the Indian Ocean despite the forecast positive IOD.





Edited by HumphreyBear (20/07/2015 15:18)

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#1336409 - 24/07/2015 15:30 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A few places around Sydney cracked 20 earlier this afternoon, including Obs Hill @ 20.0, the first time it has been that warm there in 30 days. I expect that this would be the longest run of sub-20 maxima at that warm site in recent years, with 20 having being a regular occurence throughout Winter. I'll check when I get time.

However, the station that I nominated for this thread, Sydney Olympic Park, just missed the mark, having maxed out at 19.9.

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#1336449 - 24/07/2015 19:31 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
For Townsville:
First 10C+ night: Already happened**
First 15C+ night: Already happened***
First 20C+ night: August 27
First 25C+ night: November 4


The 20C+ night has occurred. The miniums for the last three days have been: 20.8, 21.3 and 21.6.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1336486 - 25/07/2015 15:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Reached 20.5 early this afternoon at Sydney Olympic Park, after looking earlier today like going much higher - it had passed 9:30 by 10:30AM. The remains of the cold front that passed through Victoria and the Southern inland of NSW probably took the edge iff the warmth.

Looks set for another 20+ tomorrow.

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#1337444 - 03/08/2015 07:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Just realised that my first 20C was on Jul 30th so I was off by 2 days.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1338950 - 20/08/2015 19:46 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first 20C+ day has finally occurred (one day ahead of schedule though). Peaked at 20.2C here in Belgrave today, but only made it to 17.1C in the Melbourne CBD. smile

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#1338954 - 20/08/2015 19:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I realised I forgot to make my predictions for Corryong, Northeast Victoria and for Merimbula, NSW South Coast! poke

Here they are... wink

Corryong:
First 20C+ day: September 16th 2015
First 25C+ day: October 10th 2015
First 30C+ day: November 12th 2015
First 35C+ day: December 1st 2015
First 40C+ day: January 6th 2016
First 45C+ day: unlikely (hope it doesn't happen anyway)

First 15C+ night - November 13th 2015
First 20C+ night - Unlikely but I'll try for January 7th 2016
First 25C+ night - Unlikely
First 30C+ night - Unlikely

Merimbula:
First 20C+ day: August 28th 2015
First 25C+ day: September 9th 2015
First 30C+ day: October 11th 2015
First 35C+ day: November 29th 2015
First 40C+ day: unlikely but I'll try for January 6th 2016
First 45C+ day: unlikely

First 15C+ night - November 30th 2015
First 20C+ night - Unlikely
First 25C+ night - Unlikely
First 30C+ night - Unlikely

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#1338961 - 20/08/2015 20:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
Hobart

20+......September 20
25+......October 13
30+......November 8
35+......December 29
40+......No real chance

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