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#1339095 - 22/08/2015 15:08 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park maxed out at 27.9 today, the first recording of 25+ for the season. My prediction was spot on, no doubt a happy coincidence. It was also the first 80F (26.7) of the season.

Next milestone is 30 on Sept 16, just over 3 weeks away.

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#1340243 - 04/09/2015 16:58 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 673
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
How about 30C in the Sydney basin on September 12th?

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#1340301 - 06/09/2015 08:06 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville's first 30+ day this season occurred on 3/9 with 30.5.
_________________________
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#1340311 - 06/09/2015 13:43 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Melbourne's forecast to top 20C next Friday and Saturday (September 11th and 12th respectively). smile

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#1340335 - 06/09/2015 20:58 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
There probably will be monster heatwaves this summer due to massive El Nino.

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#1340338 - 06/09/2015 21:55 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
...TOMMY... Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2009
Posts: 508
Loc: Caroline Springs,119m asl, Vic
Looking at ACCESS 10 day chart looks like Melbourne could see it's first 25+ Degree day the week after this coming week, Mildura will most likely hit 30 if this comes off !
_________________________
TOMMY.

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#1341017 - 15/09/2015 15:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park got to 29.7 today, just missing out on the big 3-O. A few other Sydney locations also got very close, including OH, but Sydney Airport looks to have been the only Sydney station to get there, in fact the only station East of the ranges.

Looking at the models, it seems like 30 degrees will be off the table for Sydney for the next 10 days or so, maybe until October. The last time it failed to reach 30 in September at Sydney Olympic Park was 2010.


Edited by Steve777 (15/09/2015 15:43)
Edit Reason: Typo

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#1341019 - 15/09/2015 16:26 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: yep]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: yep
Hobart

20+......September 20
25+......October 13
30+......November 8
35+......December 29
40+......No real chance


26.9C in Hobart yesterday ( September 14 ) so there goes my first two guesses out the window.

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#1341029 - 15/09/2015 18:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Sydney Olympic Park got to 29.7 today, just missing out on the big 3-O. A few other Sydney locations also got very close, including OH, but Sydney Airport looks to have been the only Sydney station to get there, in fact the only station East of the ranges.


Albion Park also got close to the big 30, hitting 29.5C.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1342657 - 03/10/2015 11:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777
...So here are my prognostications for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
First 20:         July 23. For once we aren't getting 20 degree days 
                  in mid Winter. Last one was June 24.

First 25:         August 22
First 30:         September 16
First 32.2 (90F): October 4 - yep, NRL Grand Final day.
First 35:         October 30

First 40:         November 28. Didn't happen last year but there is    
                  about an 80% chance of 40 being reached.

Hottest           43 on Jnuary 8


It's just passed 30 degrees at Sydney Olympic Park for the first time this warm season, just over 2 weeks later than I predicted. It should get to 32 although the seabreeze might cut it off before we get there. It could reach 35 but I think that would be unlikely today.

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#1342689 - 03/10/2015 17:34 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It reached 33.7 at Sydney Olympic Park, so today also marked the first 90 deg F (32.2) of the season.

The forecast is for the first 35 tomorrow. After that the next milestone is 100 deg F which I note I forgot to forecast back in Winter. Let's go for November 11.

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#1342694 - 03/10/2015 18:22 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
For Albion Park;

First 20C day: Jul 28th
First 25C day: Aug 26th
First 30C day: Oct 3rd
First 35C day: Nov 11th
First 40C day: Jan 5th
First 45C day: Jan 13th


Well look at that... We got out first 30C day today, hitting 30.1C. And somehow I managed to get the correct date that it would happen!!

Mods, do I get a prize or something for that?? laugh
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1342726 - 03/10/2015 23:53 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Belgrave's first 25C+ day, first 15C+ night, and first 30C+ day for the season took place well ahead of my predicted dates of September 16th, September 28th, and October 12th respectively! smile

It reached 29.6C on September 13th, and dropped to 17.5C on September 14th. Meanwhile, it scored 30.6C yesterday (October 2nd). smile

Awaiting my last night below 5C for the year (and my last frost for the year), even though my most recent such minimum was on October 1st with a low of 4.7C; still got my prediction for October 21st. smile

Also eager to see if I'll experience my first 35C+ day and first 20C+ night for the season during the current heatwave across Victoria! smile

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#1342892 - 05/10/2015 15:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park peaked at 37.8 (100.0 deg F) earlier this afternoon. This was the first 35+ and the first 100+ deg F of the season, respectively 25 days and 37 days earlier than my prediction.

Next milestone is 40.

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#1342965 - 05/10/2015 23:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2067
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
I am sure nearly all those joining in this thread regard it a a bit of harmless fun. It is just a guessing game, without scientific meaning. Temperatures oscillate up and down with a weekly to fortnightly period, and change randomly from one day to the next.
However, news agencies now make stories from every local early occurrence of an early 30-degree day.

Like this:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/canbe...ds-began/377294
This is utter frivolity.
For every such early first hot day there are hundreds or thousands of cases where the first hot day is not early at all.
My own 16-year records show that the first 30-degree day this year (2nd October) is nine days later than the median date, which is the 23rd of September. In my data, the earliest 30-degree day was in 2009, on the 23rd of August. The latest was in 2010, on the 9th of November. The range of dates spanned 78 days!
As an indicator of the warmth of spring seasons, the mean daily maximum temperature is much more stable. Spring in 2010 did indeed have the coolest mean (24.09), but spring 2009 (at 28.28) did not have the warmest. The springs of 2013 (28.30) and 2014 (28.90) were warmer, but the warmest (at 29.23) was all the way back in 2002.
As for predicting summer heat...
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1343101 - 06/10/2015 23:35 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first 35C+ day, first 20C+ night, and first 25C+ night milestones (November 20th, November 21st, and December 24th respectively) have all been shattered during this latest heatwave across Victoria! eek

It topped 35.0C here in Belgrave yesterday (October 5th), before falling to only 25.1C last night! crazy

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#1343103 - 07/10/2015 04:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: yep]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
There's always next year crazy

Originally Posted By: yep
Hobart

20+......September 20
25+......October 13
30+......November 8
35+......December 29
40+......No real chance


2015
20+.......September 14
25+.......September 14
30+.......October 6

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#1343106 - 07/10/2015 06:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I said that the first 35C day would be on November 11th. However it happened just two days after the first 30, hitting 36.4C on October 5th.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1346602 - 05/11/2015 18:19 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
For Townsville:
First 20C+ day: Already happened*
First 25C+ day: Already happened*
First 30C+ day: August 31
First 35C+ day: October 23
First 100F/37.8C day: January 5
First 40C+ day: Won't happen

First 10C+ night: Already happened**
First 15C+ night: Already happened***
First 20C+ night: August 27
First 25C+ night: November 4

Maybe bending the rules a bit if this was to start yesterday but:
* Until this cold outbreak every day this month was 25+
** Until this cold outbreak every night this month was 10+
*** Night 15+ has been already been recorded five times this month


Townsville had its first 25C+ minimum for this season today of 25.1
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1349449 - 20/11/2015 14:01 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park passed 40 for the first time this season a little while ago, 8 days earlier than my guess. The max so far is 40.5, with probably another degree or two to go, subject to the arrival/non arrival of the sea breeze.

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