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#1114957 - 15/07/2012 12:35 Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached.
...TOMMY... Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2009
Posts: 508
Loc: Caroline Springs,119m asl, Vic
For Example, write down the location which you are going to do.
I will do mine so you can get the idea...People in the northern hemisphere are welcome to predict their temps for winter as well.

MELBOURNE:
First 20C day: 17th August
25C: 28th September
30C: 27th October
35C: 11th November
40C: 19th December
_________________________
TOMMY.

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#1114959 - 15/07/2012 12:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6321
Loc: Near Yeppoon
Yeppoon

First 20C day: July 16th
25C: September 24th
30C: October 16th
35C: Feb 8th 2013
40C: Doubt it will get that hot


Edited by Vinnie (15/07/2012 12:59)
_________________________

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#1114961 - 15/07/2012 13:06 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10203
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Here are my wild guesses:

South West Rocks (Smoky Cape):
First 20C day: Already reached several times (Last Financial Year: July 3rd)
First 25C: August 20th 2012 (Last FY: September 14th)
First 30C: October 3rd 2012 (Last FY: September 18th) (Last FY, the highest max was 32.0C on November 10th)
First 35C: December 9th 2012 (Last FY: Was not reached)
First 40C: Will not be reached (Last FY: Was not reached) (Only been reached once before, back in Nov 1968)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 83.6mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 15 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1451.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 143 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1114965 - 15/07/2012 14:05 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Seabreeze]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1441
Melbourne
20c- September 30th
25c- October 14th
30c- November 4th
35c- November 29th
40c- 4th January

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#1114966 - 15/07/2012 14:11 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: TheAnt]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Sydney (Obs Hill)

20C: Already been surpassed many times, should get another one on the 17th or 18th.
25C: August 5th
30C: September 9th
35C: October 21st
37.8C/100F: November 19th
40C: December 16th

I think a warmer than average late winter/spring is pretty much assured in these parts with El Nino. No strong signal from the IOD it seems. Would not be surprised to see 30C in August this year, but the 1st or 2nd week of September is a safer bet.


Edited by Southerly_Buster (15/07/2012 14:14)

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#1114974 - 15/07/2012 16:49 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: TheAnt]
...TOMMY... Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2009
Posts: 508
Loc: Caroline Springs,119m asl, Vic
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Melbourne
20c- September 30th


I think records will be broken if it doesn't reach 20 by then! wink

Edit: In 2010 it didn't reach 20C till September 26. But that was a very cloudy/rainy month.


Edited by ...TOMMY... (15/07/2012 16:52)
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TOMMY.

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#1114981 - 15/07/2012 17:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
Wagga Wagga:
20C - August 25th
25C - September 16th
30C - October 27th
35C - November 29th
40C - January 4th
_________________________
Nathan Morris


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#1114982 - 15/07/2012 17:27 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Lol, last year even Melbourne came close to 25C last August in that record run of heat early in the month, so it's not totally immune to early warmth. Melbourne isn't as affected by El Nino in spring though, moreso the IOD. By Sep 30 Melbourne can be looking at close to 30C too.

If cold fronts continue to be weak, Sydney could actually escape some of the warmth, funny how it works like that on the east coast.


Edited by Southerly_Buster (15/07/2012 17:29)

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#1115004 - 15/07/2012 20:52 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
OK, I'll have a go for Sydney, based upon local knowledge, gut feel, guesswork, El Nino but no great expertise. I'll guess for a site a bit away from the coast. Observatory Hill is just too quirky in my opinion. It needs the planets to align to get above 30c (hot air mass, strong offshore wind blowing by 9:00, sunshine, no Southerly before lunch time) but when they do the urban heat island may assert itself and it could be hotter than other Sydney locations. Also keep in mind that last 'summer' it reached 35C at Observatory Hill for the first and last time on Nov 14.

Anyway, here are my guesses for Sydney Olympic Park:

20c - 3 or 4 times between now and July 31, 10+ times in August
25c - August 10 - spring seems to have often started in August in recent years.
30c - September 15
35c - November 15
40c - December 20

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#1115011 - 15/07/2012 21:18 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - September 20
35 - October 31
40 - Probably won't happen
_________________________
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#1115017 - 15/07/2012 22:00 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 681
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hobart

20- July 29
25- August 11
30- August 25
35- January 26 2013
40- February 23 2013

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#1115044 - 16/07/2012 09:55 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Originally Posted By: Steve777
I'll guess for a site a bit away from the coast. Observatory Hill is just too quirky in my opinion. It needs the planets to align to get above 30c (hot air mass, strong offshore wind blowing by 9:00, sunshine, no Southerly before lunch time) but when they do the urban heat island may assert itself and it could be hotter than other Sydney locations.

I think Bankstown or Canterbury is a good compromise for most of Sydney for maximum temps, they aren't affected by marginal seabreezes nor do they experience inflation due to an urban heat island. Yesterday was a good example, Obs Hill and others were well above 18 deg (even 19 in some cases), whilst Canterbury was 17.3 deg and Bankstown 17.5. A weather station near me also recorded 17.1. Granted there may have been some localised hot air bubbles caused by compressional warming (Terrey Hills got 16.6 at 198 m ASL), but OH is too hot too often in a westerly for my liking, the Airport even moreso.

Southerlies also inflate max temps at OH because of the "Hungry Mile" heat sink.

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#1115182 - 17/07/2012 10:06 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Southerly_Buster
... I think Bankstown or Canterbury is a good compromise for most of Sydney for maximum temps...


I agree, Canterbury would be a good proxy for temperatures experienced by most Sydneysiders. Looking at it via Google earth, one can see that it's located on a wide, open grassy area inside Canterbury racetrack. Canterbury racetrack itself is located in the broad but shallow Cooks River valley. There don't seem to be any undue heating or cooling influences other than the surrounding suburbs (but we are talking about Sydney) and possibly some drainage of cool air from nearby slightly higher ground on clear nights. It is close to sea level and about 10km from the CBD. I think that it would be a good representative of temperatures in the inner and middle suburbs away from the coast.

Bankstown would also be good. It has the advantage of having a long, virtually complete record going back to the 1960's, so long term averages are available. It is located inside Bankstown Airport with no buldings or structures within 100m. It is close to runways, maybe that might make it a bit hot on a sunny day.

Sydney Olympic park seems to have been moved recently. The old site with 15 years of records seems to be no longer avialable on the BOM site. From memory, average maxima there were a little on the hot side compared to Canterbury and Bankstown.

Riverview might have been a good proxy for Sydney but it's records (or at least the electronic records) seem to have lots of gaps.

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#1115186 - 17/07/2012 11:00 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Canterbury is a little on the cool side for minimum temps as it's open and at the bottom of the Cooks River valley. It is the default weather station for this area but I'm on a river bank so overnight temps in winter are significantly warmer- but go a little inland in my suburb and frost is possible. Conversely, maximum temps here seem to be cooler than most of Sydney because of tree cover and the moderating influence of the river in some directions. I'm lucky to have a private weather station near me that is in the same situation and at the same height- I'm currently recording its data and will post the monthly stats in the appropriate thread.

In short, there are a lot of microclimates in Sydney but broadly:

* Bellambi Pt/Norah Head is representative of the extreme coastal fringe (ideally, North Head or Little Bay should record temps as well, especially now that the BOM issue a Bondi forecast).
* Obs Hill is representative of the 'harbourside' (and some riverside) suburbs within 10 km of the coast.
* Canterbury is representative of inner/middle ring suburbs but will record cooler minimums than most because of valley location.
* Bankstown/Holsworthy/Parramatta is representative of the middle western suburbs.
* Richmond is representative of the outer western suburbs (Penrith seems to be in a heat sink, and Camden/Campbelltown slightly elevated)
* Terrey Hills is representative of the upper north shore (but it is at the highest, easternmost point of the Hornsby Plateau, so maxima will be a little cooler than most areas).

The Sutherland Shire needs one more weather station, as Lucas Heights isn't very representative of the area being elevated and at the westernmost point of the LGA. Somewhere like Sylvania would be a good spot.

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#1115187 - 17/07/2012 11:11 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1868
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Getting off topic here but:
Homebush OLD - (066195) 28.0m asl 33.8521 S 151.0646 E -- 14 km W of SYDNEY CBD
Homebush NEW - (066212) 4.0m asl 33.8338 S 151.0718 E -- 13 km WNW of SYDNEY CBD

Moved because of new buildings interfering with the exposure I hear. Both are on Laurier's AWN site.

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#1115189 - 17/07/2012 11:19 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: kizz]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Gee Mountain H2O - you expecting an early heatwave there? smile

Bathurst
20 - September 5
25 - September 25
30 - October 15
35 - January 4
40 - Won't happen

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#1115195 - 17/07/2012 11:43 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: DaveM]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
You are very optimistic DaveM, I would be surprised if 20 is not reached in August for Bathurst, 25 though I put at the equinox. 30 maybe even latter Oct, but 35 I would expect by end November or early December. 40 is a rare beast in Bathurst so perhaps it will not happen, I agree.

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#1115197 - 17/07/2012 12:04 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: GrizzlyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yeah the 20 was a worry for sure smile
The 35 was a bit of a worry too.

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#1115199 - 17/07/2012 12:12 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: DaveM]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 641
Loc: Townsville
For Townsville,
well of course the 20c and 25c marks are not needed.

30C- September 7thst
35C- October 29th
40C- unlikely to happen at the official BoM site due to proximity to water and yet will still happen at most suburbs several times of the summer. Still I'd say a hot SW change will move through on December 7th. Could expect a 40C in western Townsville sometime around mid Novemeber normally.

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#1115202 - 17/07/2012 12:37 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: gazzatsv]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
In theory Bathurst should be 7-8C cooler than Sydney given a westerly wind; 27-28C is very possible in Sydney in August so 20C in Bathurst is not out of the question at all, particularly in El Nino years. 30C in October is more difficult, would need 37-38 in Sydney for that which only happens a couple of times a decade at best.

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#1115203 - 17/07/2012 12:52 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: HumphreyBear]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10203
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Sydney Olympic park seems to have been moved recently. The old site with 15 years of records seems to be no longer avialable on the BOM site. From memory, average maxima there were a little on the hot side compared to Canterbury and Bankstown.

(Old) Sydney Olympic Park records, closed on August 30th last year: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066195_All.shtml
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 83.6mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 15 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1451.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 143 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1115247 - 17/07/2012 15:22 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you Seabreeze.

Interesting to note that winter nights at the old Olympic Park site are almost as 'hot' as Observatory Hill (only about a degree cooler than the 1980-2010 OH average). Throughout the year, minima are about 1 - 2 degrees warmer than Canterbury, so I expect that would be a heat island effect.

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#1124972 - 05/09/2012 14:55 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Gee Mountain H2O - you expecting an early heatwave there? smile

Bathurst
20 - September 5
25 - September 25
30 - October 15
35 - January 4
40 - Won't happen


Well today is September 5 and it will be the first day we officially got to a full 20 degrees, had a close call in August with a 19.7 official max which rounds to 20 but is not quite actually 20.

How's that for a first up!! Big fluke.

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#1124988 - 05/09/2012 15:37 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: DaveM]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Just looked back at Bathurst's August stats, and you're right, it didn't get over 20C. Could have sworn Bathurst Airport got over 20C on the 22nd or 23rd of August. Bathurst Ag only got to 19.1C on the 23rd, when we had 28.6C. That's a huge difference.

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#1125009 - 05/09/2012 16:44 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: HumphreyBear]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
OCF has a 30C day for western Sydney lined up for September 13, so my initial guess of Sep 9th might be pretty close. ACCESS and EC certainly look hot for next week, GFS less so. Pattern seems to be fairly stable atm with a mid week hot blast from the NW followed by a front on Friday/Saturday. Temps should only increase from here on in so 30C is almost certain to fall within the next fortnight. Mid September is a pretty safe bet for the first 30C day at Obs Hill these days.

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#1125012 - 05/09/2012 16:50 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Obviously some parts of Bx would have hit 20 that day but not officially smile

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#1125022 - 05/09/2012 17:08 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: DaveM]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Congratulations, DaveM, I'll award it to you smile Well done. A question though- why doesn't Bathurst AP keep monthly observations? It's feasible that the Airport although at a higher elevation can record higher temps even in a westerly, it happens in Sydney too with Lucas Heights and my local station.

I could have a similar dilemma with the first 30C, today was a full degree cooler here than at Obs Hill, but I made it clear that I was nominating for Obs Hill in my initial post, so I'll stick with that. Of course, the Airport has already got to 30, but I don't take much notice of it since its readings are so inflated by the tarmac and concrete surrounds to the NW.

It'll be a close race between Sydney and Brisbane for the dubious title of first 30C day. Brisbane forecast 29C for Friday, looking at the models we have 13C at 850. Given that my forecast would be 29C also but lets hope it sneaks over the line. More likely at places like Amberley and Gympie than the CBD though.


Edited by Southerly_Buster (05/09/2012 17:08)

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#1127137 - 17/09/2012 21:37 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: HumphreyBear]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Kingaroy:
30C- Sep 21st
35C- Nov 6th
40C- Hasn't happened since 2002, but I recon some time around mid-December, say the 18th.
I'm also predicting a record October cold snap, a -1 here on the 5th (and by the way, that was just a wild guess, not an educated one!)
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 565mm ytd

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#1128023 - 22/09/2012 09:35 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: LightningGus]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thinking that the past might be a good guide to the future, I downloaded data for Bankstown (20km SW of Sydney) into a spreadsheet to see when certain 'benchmarks' have historically been reached at this location. The following are the average first dates at which the indicated temperature has been reach at Bankstown in all years of record (i.e. since 1/7/1968):

Code:
30.0 ........ October 11 (I thought it would be earlier)
32.2 (90F)... October 23
35.0 ........ November 28
37.8 (100F).. December 18
40.0 ........ January 2


Bankstown has reached 35 degrees in each year of record. The 'coldest' hottest day of Summer was 35.4 in 2008/9. Even in last year's dismal effort it reached 37.3 in November and 36.2 in January.

For the 37.8 and 40 benchmarks, the average is for years (July to June) when that temperature is reached. 37.8 has been reached in 84% of all years of record and 40 in 58%.

I expect that this would be typical of the Sydney area away from the coast and close to sea level and probably of the Illawarra, Central Coast and Lower Hunter as well. Places further inland (e.g. Penrith) probably reach benchmark values earlier in the season.

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#1128034 - 22/09/2012 10:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Apologies - found a bug in my spreadsheet. Here are the corrected values - shifts most dates a bit earlier:

Code:
30.0 ........ October 8
32.2 (90F)... October 21
35.0 ........ November 28
37.8 (100F).. December 13
40.0 ........ December 31

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#1128043 - 22/09/2012 11:50 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2701
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Very nice work Steve, when you said 2008/9 did you really mean 2007/8?

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#1128056 - 22/09/2012 13:05 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you, yes, it was 2007/8.

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#1130663 - 06/10/2012 15:09 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10203
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Here are my wild guesses:

South West Rocks (Smoky Cape):
First 25C: August 20th 2012
First 30C: October 3rd 2012
I was a bit off with the 'First 25C', that occurred on September 6th. But I nearly got the 'First 30C' right, with that occurring yesterday (Oct 5th). smile
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 83.6mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 15 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1451.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 143 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1132785 - 13/10/2012 19:55 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - September 20
35 - October 31
40 - Probably won't happen


Townsville has finally reached a maximum of 30 or above: 31.5 on 11/10 although it has come within a few tenths or less of 30 several times since the beginning of the month.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1133235 - 15/10/2012 21:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
-Stranger- Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/12/2010
Posts: 31
Loc: Hobart, TAS
Probably abit late to do this, but it seems interesting.

HOBART:

20 - Already Occurred on 23rd August (20.3)
25 - Already Occurred on 27th September (25.0)
30 - 19th November 2012
35 - January 24th 2013
40 - Probably won't happen, all time record is 40.8

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#1133276 - 16/10/2012 04:30 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777
...Anyway, here are my guesses for Sydney Olympic Park:

20c - 3 or 4 times between now and July 31, 10+ times in August
25c - August 10 - spring seems to have often started in August in recent years.
30c - September 15
35c - November 15
40c - December 20


Here's how it's going so far at Sydney Olympic Park and, I expect, most of Sydney:
Code:
20 degrees ...... Once during July 16-31, 15 times in August
25 ....... ...... August 23 (29.1)
30 .............. September 28 (33.3)


It nearly reached 35 on October 5 (34.2), the hottest day to date at Sydney Olympic Park in this warm season. I would now expect it to reach 35 by the end of October. As for 40 degrees, historically there is about a 60% chance that it will be reached (based upon Bankstown), but history also indicates that Spring heat gives little indication of what happens in Summer. I'll stick to me earlier guess.

Sydney Airport just touched 30 on August 23 (30.0), having reached 25 for the first time the previous day (25.1). It reached 35 on October 5 (35.6).




Edited by Steve777 (16/10/2012 04:34)
Edit Reason: First 25 at Sydney Airport

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#1133311 - 16/10/2012 10:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
My tips from August

Bathurst
20 - September 5
25 - September 25
30 - October 15
35 - January 4
40 - Won't happen

So far it has been - Actuals

20 - actually spot on - occurred September 5th
25 - Occurred on 28th September (26.7 degrees) guess was 25th
30 - Not happened yet, max so far 27.6 so my guess of October 15 is wrong but we MIGHT just sneak it in this week (or not)

So my first two were pretty lucky guesses. smile

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#1157658 - 11/01/2013 22:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777
...Anyway, here are my guesses for Sydney Olympic Park:

20c - 3 or 4 times between now and July 31, 10+ times in August
25c - August 10 - spring seems to have often started in August in recent years.
30c - September 15
35c - November 15
40c - December 20


In the depths of Winter I made some predictions (guesses) regarding the coming warmer months. This is how it panned out for Sydney Olympic Park.

Code:
20 degrees ...... Once during July 16-31, 15 times in August
25 ....... ...... August 23 (29.1)
30 .............. September 28 (33.3)
35 .............. November 25 (36.3)
40 .............. January 8 (41.4). Also first 100 deg F (37.8). 

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#1157660 - 11/01/2013 22:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Vinnie]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6321
Loc: Near Yeppoon
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
Yeppoon

First 20C day: July 16th
25C: September 24th
30C: October 16th
35C: Feb 8th 2013
40C: Doubt it will get that hot



First one correct

Sept 8th for 25 deg

30 deg wasn't till 3rd December despite a lot of days predicted to hit 30 deg before hand.
_________________________

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#1157662 - 11/01/2013 22:49 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Vinnie]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6321
Loc: Near Yeppoon
Reading the post "40 deg in Hobart - probably won't reach that, wow how wrong that was !
_________________________

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#1157677 - 11/01/2013 23:38 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Vinnie]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10203
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Here are my wild guesses:

South West Rocks (Smoky Cape):
First 20C day: Already reached several times
First 25C: August 20th 2012
First 30C: October 3rd 2012
First 35C: December 9th 2012
First 40C: Will not be reached
Forgot all about this, lol.

Haven't broken 35C yet (in-fact haven't passed 32.2C), none of the hottest days in the region have been able to penetrate the sea breeze here. (First 25C day was Sept 6th. First 30C day was Oct 5th)

The temps on the days of my guesses in above quote were:
August 20th: 20.7C
October 3rd: 24.1C
December 9th: 26.0C
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 83.6mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 15 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1451.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 143 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1157684 - 12/01/2013 00:34 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: TheAnt]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1441
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Melbourne
20c- September 30th
25c- October 14th
30c- November 4th
35c- November 29th
40c- 4th January

Way wrong
Way wrong
Way wrong
Spot on
Spot on
While the first three were eh...looking for a very cold spring I did get two of them right grin

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#1168585 - 29/01/2013 00:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - September 20
35 - October 31
40 - Probably won't happen


A temperature of 35 or higher has now occurred at Townsville this summer: a max of 38.0 on 27/1.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1203110 - 11/07/2013 21:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here we are in the depths of Winter, although there's not much Wintry stuff happening or on the horizon. So I thought I would revive this thread, get out my crystal ball and look into the warmer months ahead.

I'll make predictions for Sydney, but I won't go for Observatory Hill. Between heat island effects and exposure to marginal seabreezes and weak Southerlies, that site is just too tricky after October. It can fail to reach 30 when the rest of the Metro area is baking in high 30's. On the other hand, Sydney Olympic Park is probably as good a guide as any to what most Sydneysiders experience.

So, based upon some local knowledge, gut feel, guesswork, expectation of a warm winter and warm early Spring, but not much expertise, here are my predictions for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
20c - not an issue in Sydney - already reached July 4. 
      Expect about 5 more times in July and 10+ times in
      August.

25c - August 6 - Spring seems to start in August these days.

30c - September 21

32.2 (90F) - October 8

35c - November 15

37.8 (100F) November 30

40c - December 20


Last year, it turned out we needed another milestone, i.e. 45c, But I don't think we'll need it this year.

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#1203153 - 12/07/2013 08:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1868
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Your prediction of first 40 is on my birthday so I'll certainly hope for a 40+ as a nice b'day present. However, my hope is that it doesn't take that long to reach that magic marker.

I note that you seem to mark the summer year the same as the financial year. This is the same method I use playing with my database programs. Easy to search for financial year when toying with tricky SQL statements!

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#1203299 - 13/07/2013 11:41 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
I don't mind 35 to 40 degree heat as long as it's followed by good storms.

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#1203721 - 16/07/2013 22:39 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
This is easy for Melbourne .
1st 20c 18th July . 21deg actually he he .

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#1203787 - 17/07/2013 12:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: apocalypse]
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
Originally Posted By: apocalypse
Wagga Wagga:
20C - August 25th
25C - September 16th
30C - October 27th
35C - November 29th
40C - January 4th


Actual (Difference):
20C - August 22nd (-3 days)
25C - September 27th (11 days)
30C - October 19th (-8 days)
35C - November 25th (-4 days)
40C - January 5th (1 day)

Overall I think I did pretty well! grin


Edited by apocalypse (17/07/2013 12:25)
_________________________
Nathan Morris


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#1203823 - 17/07/2013 16:01 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
With a negative IOD predicted for this spring, you'd think the upcoming warm season would be a little less severe than last year. But here we are in July and still getting record breaking warmth, so...

I will use Canterbury AWS for my predictions, however maxima at my exact location tend to be a little cooler.

25C: August 4 (who knows, could happen tomorrow)
27C/80F: August 20
30C: September 12
32C/90F: September 12 (in other words, the first 30C day will also hit or exceed 32C).
35C: October 15
37.8C: November 29
40C: January 5

I think we will surpass 25, 27, 30, 32 and possibly 35C quite early given the recent warmth, however my gut feel is that we'll have to wait a little longer for serious heat (>100F).

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#1203830 - 17/07/2013 16:32 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
For Obs hill i'm going for

25C: September 2nd
30C: September 11th
35C: November 28th
40C: Won't happen

Shall be a colder and wetter spring overall given the current warm spells

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#1203971 - 18/07/2013 08:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 681
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hobart , considering we have had 5 cold days this Winter so far and today will get to 18 degrees , here we go . LOL

20C sometime before the end of this month
25C next month
30C September
35C October the 15th
40C December Xmas day
45C Australia Day 2014
45C PLUS February the 7th and very possible after last year
eek

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#1206374 - 06/08/2013 08:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Obs Hill, Penrith and Richmond have a decent chance of 25C today if the cloud holds off. 925 hPa temps reach 14 deg this afternoon. For other locations though probably just short.

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#1206433 - 06/08/2013 16:09 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: LightningGus]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
My guesses from last year:
Originally Posted By: GusO
Kingaroy:
30C- Sep 21st
35C- Nov 6th
40C- Hasn't happened since 2002, but I recon some time around mid-December, say the 18th.

30C- September 23rd (only two days off!! grin )
35C- December 17th (42 days off)
40C- Didn't happen, closest was 38.0C January 19th

My guesses this year:
25C- August 12th
30C- September 15th
35C- November 20th
37.8C (100 F)- November 27th
40C- Won't happen this summer
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 565mm ytd

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#1206456 - 06/08/2013 18:34 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - September 7
35 - October 15
40 - December 20
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1207930 - 21/08/2013 21:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville reached and exceeded 30C yesterday 20/8. A maximum of 32.8C.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1208046 - 22/08/2013 21:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Thought I'd have a go for Melbourne, Corryong in Northeast Victoria, and Merimbula on the New South Wales South Coast:

Melbourne:
First 20C+ day (not including the record-breaking 23.3C on July 18th while I was in up north in Cairns and Far North Queensland): August 26th 2013
First 25C+ day: September 13th 2013
First 30C+ day: October 10th 2013
First 35C+ day: November 17th 2013
First 40C+ day: December 12th 2013
First 45C+ day: extremely rare but I'll guess for January 26th 2014 (just hope it doesn't reach or exceed the 46.4C record set on February 7th 2009 aka Black Saturday)


Corryong, Northeast Victoria:
First 20C+ day: September 13th 2013
First 25C+ day: October 10th 2013
First 30C+ day: November 17th 2013
First 35C+ day: December 12th 2013
First 40C+ day: extremely rare (despite Corryong's inland location the town is in an elevated valley sheltered by mountains so it rarely tops 40C in summer, even though the average highs for both January and February are about 31C) but as a guess I'll try for January 6th 2014
First 45C+ day: unlikely (unless we get an extremely fierce, record-shattering heatwave across Victoria and NSW/ACT this summer; the all-time high for Corryong is 43.3C on February 7th 2009 aka Black Saturday)


Merimbula, New South Wales South Coast:
First 20C+ day: already happened on quite a few occasions since July 1st and many more will sure follow, the next 20C+ high is forecast for Merimbula next Wednesday!
First 25C+ day: September 3rd 2013
First 30C+ day: difficult to say, considering that Merimbula's climate is very mild, due in large part to the moderating influence of the Tasman Sea to the east and Bass Strait to the south, as well as the effect of the Great Dividing Range (NSW Snowy Mountains and Southern Tablelands to the west and northwest), but I'll try for October 11th
First 35C+ day: same issues as before with the 30C+ temperatures, but I'll go for November 18th
First 40C+ day: very, very rare but not impossible, January 6th 2014 is my guess
First 45C+ day: unlikely

I was in Merimbula with my fiance and my family last summer when it hit a new all-time high of 44.2C on January 18th 2013 (thank goodness my fiance and I had left Sydney just days before, where it topped 45.8C that same day, also a record), and the heat was FIERCE, only made worse by hot, gusty northwest/northerly winds (it was simply too hot to even go swimming at the beach or in the pool) before a cool change arrived around mid-afternoon with more pleasant temperatures (initially in the 30s but later in the 20s) and showers and thunderstorms nearby. Unfortunately the heat, Outback winds, and cool change fanned a large, destructive bushfire just outside town frown



Not expecting to be correct, this is simply for fun haha smile more than happy to be proven wrong but I'll be very surprised if I'm right for even just one of these dates at any of these locations! lol grin

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#1208214 - 25/08/2013 09:44 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
-Stranger- Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/12/2010
Posts: 31
Loc: Hobart, TAS
Hobart, Tasmania
August has been the coldest month of winter here, we had our coldest morning since 2007 recently.

20c - September 11th
25c - September 26th
30c - October 31st
35c - December 23rd
38c - January 2nd
40c - January 20th

Last summer we had our hottest day on record (41.8) it will be interesting to see if we can top that.

Also last summer we had 10 days of 30c or higher, i think normally the average was only 4-5 days.


Edited by -Stranger- (25/08/2013 09:52)

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#1208654 - 30/08/2013 16:37 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777

...
here are my predictions for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
20c - not an issue in Sydney - already reached July 4. 
      Expect about 5 more times in July and 10+ times in
      August.

25c - August 6 - Spring seems to start in August these days.

30c - September 21
...


Today (August 30) was the first 25 degree day of the season at Sydney Olympic Park, with a max of 28.8. That was over 3 weeks later than I expected. It fell just short on August 12, although several sites around Sydney, including Sydney Airport and Bankstown, reached 25 on that day.

Since my initial prediction on July 11, more than half of all days have reached 20 degrees at Sydney Olympic Park (26 / 50).


Edited by Steve777 (30/08/2013 16:41)
Edit Reason: typo

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#1208659 - 30/08/2013 18:28 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...

Melbourne:
First 20C+ day (not including the record-breaking 23.3C on July 18th while I was in up north in Cairns and Far North Queensland): August 26th 2013
First 25C+ day: September 13th 2013
First 30C+ day: October 10th 2013
First 35C+ day: November 17th 2013
First 40C+ day: December 12th 2013
First 45C+ day: extremely rare but I'll guess for January 26th 2014 (just hope it doesn't reach or exceed the 46.4C record set on February 7th 2009 aka Black Saturday)

Let's see, the first 20C+ day for Melbourne (not including July 18th) was very, very close, only 24 hours later than I expected! It was actually August 27th (20.6C in the CBD, 21.2C at my house), not bad! smile

The first 25C+ day looks set for Father's Day (Sunday September 1st), but I cannot help wondering whether it'll reach that threshold tomorrow instead? Hmmm, just have to wait and see... smile

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#1209423 - 07/09/2013 13:09 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777

...
So, based upon some local knowledge, gut feel, guesswork, expectation of a warm winter and warm early Spring, but not much expertise, here are my predictions for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
20c - not an issue in Sydney - already reached July 4. 
      Expect about 5 more times in July and 10+ times in
      August.

25c - August 6 - Spring seems to start in August these days.

30c - September 21

32.2 (90F) - October 8

....


It is now 30.8 at Sydney Olympic Park, so the 30 degree milestone was reached two weeks earlier than my prognostication. It even got to 30.5 at Observatory Hill, so that's one more 30+ day at that site for September (so far) than for all of February.

It may yet reach 32.2 at Olympic Park, although a sea breeze is now working it's way through Sydney (or perhaps a weak Summer-style SE change).

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#1211414 - 25/09/2013 14:27 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park has passed 32.2 degrees (90 deg F) earlier this afternoon, 13 days earlier than I predicted.

My guess is that we're in for a hot mid Spring until the pattern on the East Coast switches to maritime some time between late October to mid November, with regular SE changes bringing low cloud and showers a couple of days each week. The Summer to follow may be hot or cool, there are examples of both after a hot early Spring. Hopefully it will bring some good storms and hot sunny days as well as enough rain where needed.

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#1211646 - 27/09/2013 12:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
From my records, it ALMOST made it to 25C on August 31st, 24.7C to be precise, followed by 24.9C on September 1st (Father's Day), and 24.3C on September 2nd. My first 25C+ day was September 3rd with 26.0C, followed by 28.1C on September 4th! Well ahead of my initial prediction of September 13th...

Now awaiting my first 30C+ day, should come any day now but unlikely for the next week at least with the way our temperatures will be fluctuating as a series of cold fronts come through smile

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#1211648 - 27/09/2013 12:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
For Corryong, so far the town still hasn't hit 25C+, but according to Weatherzone the highest it's reached so far this month is 24.2C on September 25th (there's been a total of 10 days with maximums about 20C+ so far this month), I'm still guessing that the first 25C+ day for the Upper Murray region of Northeast Victoria and Southeast NSW will be on or around October 10th smile

For Merimbula on the NSW South Coast, my guess for the 25C+ day (September 3rd) was pretty close (26.6C on September 5th), but I was totally off the mark with my first 30C+ prediction for October 11th!! When I checked on Weatherzone I was amazed that it had topped 30.2C on September 25th!! crazy

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#1212549 - 04/10/2013 17:17 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1441
Melbourne:
First 30C+ day: October 25th
First 35C+ day: November 15th
First 40C+ day: January 7th

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#1212649 - 05/10/2013 20:49 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The first 25C+ day for Corryong, Northeast Victoria was September 30th with a high of 25.2C, well ahead of my prediction of October 10th smile

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#1213060 - 10/10/2013 17:06 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The 35 degree milestone was reached at Sydney Olympic Park today, October 10, with a maximum of 37.0 This is 35 days earlier than I predicted / guessed.

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#1213104 - 10/10/2013 21:44 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I thought it was going to top 30C in Melbourne yesterday as predicted (so close to my October 10th 2013 although out by 24 hours)... but no, it only made it to 26.7C in the City (26.6C at my house in the Dandenongs), I'll try for October 25th instead poke

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#1213106 - 10/10/2013 21:52 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I had meant to add this to my earlier post but I think the edit time expired. It almost made it to 35C in Merimbula today (34.6C to be precise) but I won't be surprised if it reaches 35C+ between now and my prediction of November 18th! The heat is really building up north!!

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#1213632 - 14/10/2013 20:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Correction, it was actually 34.8C in Merimbula, sorry for the mistake poke

Looks like Corryong may be in for its first 30C+ day next Monday (initial forecast high is 29C at this stage, just have to wait and see I suppose)

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#1214576 - 22/10/2013 13:55 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Melbourne's finally had its first 30C+ day for the season, which happened on Sunday October 20th (31.6C in the City and 32.2C at my end) smile

Corryong still hasn't quite got there, only reaching 28.1C on Sunday.

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#1217167 - 09/11/2013 20:38 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Corryong has FINALLY reached the good old 30C+ for the first AND second time this season, well ahead of my November 17th prediction!

It dropped to only 4.1C on the morning of November 7th (brr...) but then topped 31.1C in the afternoon!! Pretty impressive temperature change over the course of 24 hours!

The following day, November 8th, it dropped to 11.6C in the morning and by the afternoon it had topped 30.7C! smile


Still awaiting the first 35C+ days for Melbourne, Corryong, and Merimbula, but they don't look like they'll arrive anytime soon...

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#1222888 - 29/11/2013 20:53 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Although the Melbourne CBD still hasn't reached the 35C+ milestone this season (the City may top 35C next Monday due to hot northerly winds ahead of an approaching storm system expected over Victoria next week, the first for Summer 2013/2014), my thermometer registered 35.2C on Wednesday, well past my November 17th prediction; it only topped 33.1C in the City! poke

Corryong is forecast to hit 35C next Tuesday, over a week ahead of my initial prediction (December 12th). Still waiting to see Merimbula crack 35C and even soar to 40C... it's going to happen sooner or later...

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#1225665 - 18/12/2013 16:28 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: MOUNTAIN h2o]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 681
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Originally Posted By: MOUNTAIN h2o
Hobart , considering we have had 5 cold days this Winter so far and today will get to 18 degrees , here we go . LOL

20C sometime before the end of this month
25C next month
30C September
35C October the 15th
40C December Xmas day
45C Australia Day 2014
45C PLUS February the 7th and very possible after last year
eek

Looks like I will be one week early on the Xmas day guess, should be easily 40 tomorrow !!


Edited by MOUNTAIN h2o (18/12/2013 16:30)

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#1225805 - 19/12/2013 19:20 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first 40C+ day happened today... 40.8C at 4:26pm at my end, a week after my initial prediction of December 12th...

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#1225916 - 20/12/2013 14:22 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Here we are in the depths of Winter, although there's not much Wintry stuff happening or on the horizon. So I thought I would revive this thread, get out my crystal ball and look into the warmer months ahead.

I'll make predictions for Sydney, but I won't go for Observatory Hill. Between heat island effects and exposure to marginal seabreezes and weak Southerlies, that site is just too tricky after October. It can fail to reach 30 when the rest of the Metro area is baking in high 30's. On the other hand, Sydney Olympic Park is probably as good a guide as any to what most Sydneysiders experience.

So, based upon some local knowledge, gut feel, guesswork, expectation of a warm winter and warm early Spring, but not much expertise, here are my predictions for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
20c - not an issue in Sydney - already reached July 4. 
      Expect about 5 more times in July and 10+ times in
      August.

25c - August 6 - Spring seems to start in August these days.

30c - September 21

32.2 (90F) - October 8

35c - November 15

37.8 (100F) November 30

40c - December 20


Last year, it turned out we needed another milestone, i.e. 45c, But I don't think we'll need it this year.


Today marked the first occurrence of 37.8 and 40 at Sydney Olympic park. The former was 20 days later than predicted, the latter spot on, no doubt a coincidence.

That's all the milestones reached. I don't think we'll be needing 45. Today could well turn out to be the hottest day of the Summer.

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#1229250 - 04/01/2014 23:15 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
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Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - September 7
35 - October 15
40 - December 20


Townsville finally reached 35 with 35.1 on 30/12 followed by 35.6 on 31/12. I was way off.
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#1240051 - 07/02/2014 17:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: LightningGus]
LightningGus Offline
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Originally Posted By: GusO
My guesses this year:
25C- August 12th
30C- September 15th
35C- November 20th
37.8C (100 F)- November 27th
40C- Won't happen this summer

Didn't do too badly this year, wouldn't have picked 2013/14 as being one of the hottest spring/summer seasons on record though.

25C- 26.2C, August 11th (1 day off!!!)
30C- 31.7C September 11th (5 days off)
35C- 35.9C September 26th (waaaaayyyyy off, was the earliest 35+ day on record though)
37.8C- 39.1C December 29th (32 days off)
40 C- WRONG! 41.0C January 4th (equal hottest day on record and first 40+ day since 2002)

Edit: Might get the ball rolling for autumn/winter predictions too:
10C- March 26th
5C- April 30th
0C- June 11th
-5C- Won't happen this winter


Edited by GusO (07/02/2014 18:09)
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#1269600 - 12/07/2014 10:27 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
With Spring starting in about a month, judging by recent years, it's time to revive this thread. The likelihood of an El Nino would suggest a hot Spring/ Summer to come. The 12 month rainfall forecast for Sydney suggests a wet August / September followed by a dry late Spring and Summer. But a Summer dominated by cool Southerlies can still be dry.

So, basically, we don't know. Anyway, here are some guesses for Sydney Olympic Park, based upon the experience of recent years:

Code:
   First 25:              August 15
   First 30:              September 15
   First 32.2 (90 F):     September 28
   First 35               October 22
   First 37.8 (100 F)     November 26
   First 40               December 18

Based upon stats at Bankstown, 35 will almost certainly be reached some time between October and March, there's about an 85% probability that 37.8 will be reached and about a 60% chance of 40. Bankstown reached 45 once in 46 years and 44 four times.

20 degrees now occurs regularly during Winter in Sydney and has already occured twice this July at Olympic Park.

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#1269615 - 12/07/2014 13:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Those are pretty good predictions Steve, at least in the context of the climate of the 21st Century. Usually the first 25C is mid August, first 30C about a month later and the first true "hot" day above 90F occurring just after the equinox.

A few of the ensembles were suggesting a cooler spring, but even if it's cooler overall, that doesn't preclude warm spikes from occurring as we know.

I'll add a few things (basically a wild stab in the dark for these though):

First major bushfire: 3 September
First night above 20C at Canterbury AWS: November 27
First dewpoint above 20C at Canterbury AWS: December 20
"Monsoon" arrival***: February 15
Thunderstorm activity: Below average
Peak 850 hPa temp over Sydney: 30C, but will pass at night.

***The transition from "dry" summer to "wet" summer.

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#1269622 - 12/07/2014 15:14 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Albion Park

First 20C day (starting today): 29th July
First 25C day: 20th August
First 30C day: 1st October
First 35C day: 21st October
First 40C day: 2nd January
First 45C day: won't happen
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#1269926 - 16/07/2014 00:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
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Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - August 30
35 - November 10
40 - Won't happen
45 - Won't happen
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#1269930 - 16/07/2014 01:38 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I'll have a shot for at guessing certain temperature milestones for the coming warm season for Melbourne: smile

First 20C+ day - August 21st
First 25C+ day - September 12th
First 30C+ day - October 15th
First 35C+ day - November 18th
First 40C+ day - December 10th
First 45C+ day - unlikely, and I hope it DOESN'T but I'll try for January 26th

As much as I'm looking forward to the warmer and hotter temperatures this coming late-winter/spring/summer period, we're going to need A LOT of rainfall up until the end of summer (at the least) to keep the bushfire risk in check! And more thunderstorm action this year please! A repeat of last summer is not wanted in my area this year. The only good summer is a wet one. If El Nino must make a comeback, then it had better be one like 2009-2010, which delivered unusually high summer rainfall in my area.

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#1271256 - 29/07/2014 16:36 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Some stations in Sydney have a decent chance of cracking 25C this Thursday (31 July) provided cloud stays away (which it's forecast to do). 925 mb temps of 14-15C are predicted. 25C days in July are pretty rare, despite 23-24C being reached pretty much every July these days.

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#1271534 - 31/07/2014 15:43 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A number of Sydney stations cracked 25 today, including Observatory Hill and the Airport. Sydney Olympic Park went close (24.8) but no cigar.

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#1271763 - 01/08/2014 09:43 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Surprised Sydney Olympic Park did not get there, it's usually one of the warmest spots in a westerly. Just goes to show that in a strong westerly, it's a bit of a lottery as to who gets the hottest air parcels. The PWS near me maxed out at a very warm 25.2C, and I measured 24.3C at about 3:45 PM which was about 0.3C warmer than Canterbury at the time, so the PWS readings is probably correct. Holsworthy also made it above 25C and further south, Kiama and Albion Park almost hit 26C.

Next off the list will be 80F (26.7C). You'd be a brave soul to bet against at least one 80F day this August, I'd say it will be crossed in the next 2-3 weeks for sure, with 30C at least a 50/50 chance before the month is out.


Edited by DrizzlyBear (01/08/2014 09:48)

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#1274071 - 22/08/2014 18:14 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
A day later than I predicted but close enough. We've entered the 20C+ range for the first time in 87 days (last 20C+ reading I measured was on May 27th 2014). Today's high was 23.0C. smile

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#1275003 - 01/09/2014 00:29 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I thought I might have a go at predicting dates when certain 'high' overnight minimum temperatures are likely to be reached at my end this season! Most of these are just wild guesses, so I'm expecting to be way off the mark!! Lol smile

First 15C+ - September 13th (unless it happens tonight)
First 20C+ night - October 16th
First 25C+ night - November 26th
First 30C+ night - February 7th (hope it doesn't happen though)

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#1275064 - 01/09/2014 15:50 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Today it reached 24.6 at Sydney Olympic Park, so just missed out on 25. Sydney Airport seems to have been the only Sydney station to crack 25. Observatory Hill had a seabreeze and peaked at 23.6.

It looks like a cool week coming up, so the first 25 for most of Sydney won't occur until well into September, compared to my prediction back on July 12 of August 15.

Unlike recent years, Spring in Sydney did not begin in August, which was in fact the coolest month of the Winter. It looks like we have at least another week of Winter on the way. Sydney flipped into a maritime (East Coast Low / Southerly / Easterly) pattern on August 12. If this pattern persists, this Spring will be very different from the last couple.


Edited by Steve777 (01/09/2014 15:57)
Edit Reason: Clarification

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#1275092 - 01/09/2014 18:49 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
We have already broken the 25C milestone with 26.1C reached on 31st July. Next one will be 30C which I've tipped to happen on 1st October.

Yeah it certainly will be alot different from the last couple. The last few years have seen spring start early and be generally warm, then Summer slacks off to it's usual no heat seabreezy pattern.

Maybe this year it could be flipped, where we see a slow start and cold spring, which leads up to an unusually hot summer.


Edited by Reillyp (01/09/2014 18:53)
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#1275132 - 01/09/2014 21:07 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
So my first 15C+ minimum milestone for the season has been reached, and right on cue! It's my first such overnight minimum since May 27th when we had a minimum of 16.6C (97 days ago). smile

Today was one of those 'flipped' days for me weatherwise, typical of early-spring, with the night warmer than the day! Today's high of 16.8C was actually at around 1am, and the low was 15.3C just before 10am. The temperature rose up almost to 16C before a cold front hit around lunchtime, then conditions grew colder afterwards! crazy

Now, for fun, I'll attempt to make similar temperature predictions for the season for both Corryong, Northeast Victoria and Merimbula, NSW South Coast. No point worrying about Fiji lol smile


Corryong

First 15C+ night - November 15th
First 20C+ night - January 6th
First 25C+ night - Unlikely
First 30C+ night - Unlikely

First 20C+ day - Already happened today, with a high of 20.0C according to Weatherzone Australia (need to check this)
First 25C+ day - October 16th
First 30C+ day - November 14th
First 35C+ day - December 8th
First 40C+ day - January 6th
First 45C+ day - Unlikely


Merimbula

First 15C+ night - November 15th
First 20C+ night - Unlikely
First 25C+ night - Unlikely
First 30C+ night - Unlikely

First 20C+ day - Already happened today, with a high of 21.0C according to Weatherzone Australia (need to check this)
First 25C+ day - September 15th
First 30C+ day - September 28th
First 35C+ day - December 15th
First 40C+ day - January 7th (otherwise unlikely)
First 45C+ day - Unlikely

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#1275983 - 09/09/2014 15:39 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It hit 25.0 at Sydney Olympic Park earlier this afternoon. It looks like that will be the maximum. It is the warmest day there since May 26.

So, the first 25 of the current season, 25 days later than I predicted.


Edited by Steve777 (09/09/2014 15:42)
Edit Reason: Spelling

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#1276456 - 14/09/2014 18:00 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1868
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Not a prediction but an observation. I think the first 40 for the country was reached today. 40.4 at Mandora at 1159 local time. Some one can correct me if I missed it but I did not find any 40 before today on AWN.
Lots of places have come very close in the last few days but this is the first I have seen for the upcoming Summer.

I was struggling to decide where to post this comment but meh, this'll do.

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#1276513 - 15/09/2014 12:29 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Was looking for the answer to this very question when I saw 30C@ 925 over the Pilbara. Thanks Kizz. Of course, many places out there may have registered 40C a little earlier, but it's a "tree falling in the woods" situation. I'm guessing mid September is about average for the first official 40C.

Regarding Sydney temps, some stations reached 25C as early as July 31, but I don't think anywhere has topped the next milestone which is 80F/26.7C. Some of the hotter stations may have a crack at that tomorrow if the cloud clears early enough.

Still no 30C days on the horizon yet for Sydney, that's more a product of the synoptic setups than a lack of heat. Ceduna got to 35C on the 8th which would usually result in a 30C in Sydney 1-2 days later, however the NW'lys haven't been strong enough. I see both Brisbane and Perth have 30C days forecast this week (Wednesday and Saturday respectively), however my gut is that Brisbane will fall just short again. It's also pretty difficult to get 30C in Perth at this time of year.

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#1276524 - 15/09/2014 14:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Vinnie Offline
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Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6321
Loc: Near Yeppoon
How come Rockhampton is forecast for a cooler than normal 22 deg next Monday ? or is that an error ?
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#1276742 - 17/09/2014 18:11 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville reached 30.2 today, 17/9.
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#1276847 - 18/09/2014 17:36 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1205
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I'm guessing Melbourne's 1st 30+ day will be october 2nd
1st 40+ day will be December 17th
and finally the first night over 30 will be new years eve

bringing on a ripper storm season through october and november to kick off the annual bushfire season which, wont be catastrophic, but will be fairly severe

that is the extent that I am willing to forecast
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#1276889 - 19/09/2014 00:26 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Dawoodman]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
bringing on a ripper storm season through october and november to kick off the annual bushfire season which, wont be catastrophic, but will be fairly severe


Yes hope you're right about the Storm Season Dawoodman, and not just in October and November, but also in December, January, and February... and I hope the bushfire season will be far less severe than you make out, a wet summer is better than a dry summer! smile

Just checking the records and forecasts, Corryong in Northeast Victoria has indeed made it past the first 20C+ milestone for the season, with 20.1C at Corryong Airport on Monday September 1st 2014! And the forecast says that the town could hit 25C on Thursday September 25th 2014 (next week), well ahead of my anticipated October 16th 2014 milestone! smile

As for Merimbula on the NSW South Coast, the town hit 20.5C on Monday September 1st 2014, so yep it also made it past the first 20C+ milestone for the season! Still awaiting the first 25C+ day now! smile

Edit: And as for Melbourne, looks like the first 25C+ day is late in the coming, but the forecast calls for 25C in the City next Wednesday (September 24th 2014) and Thursday (September 25th 2014)! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/09/2014 00:28)

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#1276908 - 19/09/2014 09:01 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Looks like our first official 20 will be next Monday. Bit later than recent years. Usually hit 20 sometime late in august.

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#1276939 - 19/09/2014 16:14 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Amazingly, Canterbury AWS hasn't officially cracked 25.0C yet. I've looked back at the (short term) records for this site (1995-) and it's officially the latest in the series. A little bit academic though as it has reached 24.9C. In addition, some Sydney sites registered their first 25 way back on July 31 during that little "false spring". However, the last 25 moving into winter was in late May, much later than usual.

Bizarrely, Perth looks like it will be the first capital city (ex. Darwin) to crack 30C for this warming season. In a normal spring, Perth usually enjoys protection from the heat due to the prevailing westerlies. Not this year, when the flow over the continent has been very anomalously east to north-east. That tends to shield Sydney and Brisbane from heat, as we have seen so far.

Will be tough to get 25 at Merimbula also with the patterns atm. That area usually gets an early southerly or easterly whenever westerlies are weak.

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#1276958 - 19/09/2014 20:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah certainly is strange this spring. Brisbane or Sydney almost always cracks the 30C mark first. This pattern atm is almost like summer, except a fair few degrees colder. I'm just eagerly waiting for some warmth to replace this dismal cold.

Yeah Merimbula is in bad spot when it comes to heat, every variable seems to work against heat spell's on the far south coast. Stronger NEer's than areas further north because of the usual large temp gradient between inland and coastal and cool ocean temps make the seabreeze colder. Early southerlies (as mentioned) and mountains can create orographic lift.

Even in summer Merimbula can struggle to hit 25C, especially if SST's are still cold and if it's La Nina.
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#1277007 - 20/09/2014 09:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes, as per the above posts regarding Merimbula, it's not often that the town can make it even to 25C even in January, but in my experience as a summer visitor I've seen the temperature rise beyond 30C a few times, generally only up to about 32C. The humidity may make it feel a lit warmer though. smile

But the worst time I was there was when it hit an all-time high of 44.2C on January 18th 2014! Considering the average January high is only 24.7C, the heat was BRUTUAL!!! frown

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#1277011 - 20/09/2014 10:04 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Still cooler than Sydney's 45-46C on that day, lol.

SSTs are around 1C above average at the moment off the NSW coast, probably due to the lack of westerly cold fronts which draw cooler air from land to ocean. That won't necessarily be the case in summer though, an extended run of NE'lys can really drop ocean temps on the east coast due to upwelling. We saw that last spring/summer with extremely warm SSTs (22C or so) off Sydney in September, but periods around 20C in January!

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#1277027 - 20/09/2014 12:00 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yes there were incessant northeasterlies while I was holidaying on the NSW South Coast last summer and I'm guessing they'll be back once more this summer! At times they wreaked havoc with the waves by either flattening and suppressing them or by whipping them up and making them a bit too dangerous to play in without being more careful! frown

On the plus side, the northeasterlies acted a bit like a natural air-conditioning system, and although humidity was added in and the sun had a kick, not one single day between January 9th and 19th 2014 hit the 30.0C mark in Merimbula! Bega meanwhile, since it's further inland and in a valley between the Great Dividing Range and the Mimosa Rocks National Park/Tanja State Forest, had six days with 30C+ highs in the same period, three of which hit 35C or more, with the highest being 38.1C on January 17th. smile

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#1277033 - 20/09/2014 14:08 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Yeah, Bega is in a natural depression, a little like Penrith, so heat can really build up there. The little range to the east is effective in blocking the mild maritime air in winter as well so frosty mornings are common. Tathra on the adjacent coast very rarely sees over 30C (even 25 is a struggle), it's a great spot for us heat haters. The natural environment of the Far South Coast is also hard to beat- it's not nearly as developed as the North Coast of NSW.

Merimbula attracts many Mexicans due to the relatively warmer waters smile. Go round the corner to Mallacoota and you're back in the Southern Ocean cold though.

Getting somewhat back on topic, some models had a 30C day in Sydney at the end of next week but the NE'lys looks like they might win the day again...

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#1277040 - 20/09/2014 14:30 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: HumphreyBear]
Dr Philosophy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2009
Posts: 154
Loc: Campbelltown, NSW
It's official: Perth is the first capital city this warm season to crack the big 3-0, in which it is currently 30.2C as of 12:25pm AWST.

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#1277057 - 20/09/2014 16:37 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Perth has broken its September record in some style; currently 34.1 (previous record 32.7). Even larger record-breaking margins have happened at Perth Airport (2.7) and Rottnest Island (3.8), while other September records have been set at, among others, Cape Leeuwin and Albany.

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#1277137 - 21/09/2014 11:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
GFS had 23-24C at 925 mb over Perth for some time leading up to Saturday, well done to it. The records themselves are disturbing, though not altogether surprising given the synoptic setup which is pretty rare in September.

Meanwhile the warmth in Sydney later in the week looks to have been downgraded, OCF values are only in the mid 20s for the western suburbs now. That will take us into October- one wonders whether that might be it for any sustained zonal pattern now.

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#1277238 - 22/09/2014 11:15 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Melbourne's forecasted to breach the 25C+ barrier tomorrow, with a summer-like top of 26C for the City - right on cue with the 2014 Spring Equinox, but well past my predicted date of September 12th lol. Unless it hits 25C today, even though the forecast only calls for 24C. smile

Corryong may hit 25C tomorrow (well ahead of my predicted date of October 16th), even though the current forecast temperature only says 24C. smile

Merimbula, meanwhile, will continue to struggle to make it past the early-20s for at least the next few days... poke

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#1278179 - 29/09/2014 12:50 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park passed 30 degrees for the first time this season shortly after midday, a fortnight later than my prediction / prognostication / guess. It was also the first time that site hit 80 degrees F (26.7) this season.

So far it has reached 31.1, so 90F (32.2) is a good chance.

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#1278194 - 29/09/2014 16:32 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A few places in Sydney reached 32.2 today, with Observatory Hill (32.9) and the Airport (33.5) being the hot spots - maybe the heat island effect.

Sydney Olympic Park, however, just missed it (31.9).

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#1278219 - 29/09/2014 23:02 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
Albion Park

First 20C day (starting today): 29th July
First 25C day: 20th August
First 30C day: 1st October
First 35C day: 21st October
First 40C day: 2nd January
First 45C day: won't happen



Wow, I was only 2 days off my predicted 30C mark, as it hit 31C today!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1278285 - 30/09/2014 13:18 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
First 32.2C / 90F at Sydney Olympic Park earlier this afternoon, two days later than I predicted.

It could reach 35 today but I think that's now unlikely. It has reached 35 at Penrith.

Sea breeze is now established at OH so it probably won't get warmer ther.

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#1279698 - 13/10/2014 00:44 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first 30C+ day for the same came two days later than anticipated, but still that's pretty close! I got to 32.8C yesterday (October 12th). smile

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#1282307 - 28/10/2014 21:44 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
And my first first 35C+ day has come well ahead of my prediction (November 18th), with a high of 36.3C on October 22nd!! eek

Still awaiting my first 20C+ night, I predicted it would happen on October 16th, but it hasn't happened! A few nights so far this season have managed to stay above 20C for a few hours but the temperature would eventually cool into the teens; the warmest overnight minimum this season for me so far is 19.5C on October 19th. poke

As for Corryong, Northeast Victoria, the town reached its first 25C+ day on October 5th, with a high of 27.2C (initial predicted date was October 16th). It's first 30C+ day came on October 23rd, with a high of 30.6C (initial predicted date was November 14th). smile

And Merimbula on the NSW South Coast has had its first 25C+ day, with a top of 27.8C on September 30th, 15 days after my initial predicted date of September 15th. And its first 15C+ night happened on October 24th (well before my predicted date of November 15th) with a low of 15.5C. smile

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#1282687 - 01/11/2014 12:32 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
According to yesterday's 3:00 PM Bulletin, yesterday's maximum at Sydney Olympic Park was 36 rounded, so it definitely passed the 35 milestone yesterday October 31, 9 days later than my prediction.

It is currently 35.2 at that site.

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#1284011 - 14/11/2014 13:54 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I note that the temperature has passed 37.8 C (100 F) at Sydney Olympic Park earlier this afternoon, for the first time this warm season. This is 12 days earlier than my mid-Winter guess.

It could reach 40 but it probably won't today. On the other hand, Penrith and Richmond, both now on 39 point something, could well do so


Edited by Steve777 (14/11/2014 13:58)
Edit Reason: Second para

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#1285249 - 21/11/2014 15:46 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park just missed out on 40 today (max 39.9 @ 3:12PM). The sea breeze seems firmly established now so it will be unlikely to take another shot at 40 today.

A number of sites in Western Sydney reached 40 including Bankstown, Gosford, Penrith and Richmond.

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#1291446 - 13/12/2014 19:01 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - August 30
35 - November 10
40 - Won't happen
45 - Won't happen

Finally reached and exceeded 35 today 13/12: 36.1 courtesy of a northwards moving trough.
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#1292339 - 18/12/2014 14:17 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Still awaiting my first 40C+ day for the season, but so far the closest I've come to that mark is 37.8C on November 30th. So far this season I've clocked up 18 days of 30C+ temperatures (the first 30C+ day was on October 12th with a high of 32.8C), of which 7 have topped 35C or more (the first 35C+ day was on October 22nd with a high of 36.3C).

I'm kinda relieved, for the time being at least; after last summer's vicious heatwaves and bushfires, I have a hatred for hot, dry weather, so if we crack 40C+ this season it had better be humid with a high chance of heavy rain and storms developing! smile

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#1292347 - 18/12/2014 14:49 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
I'll have a shot for at guessing certain temperature milestones for the coming warm season for Melbourne: smile

First 20C+ day - August 21st
First 25C+ day - September 12th
First 30C+ day - October 15th
First 35C+ day - November 18th
First 40C+ day - December 10th
First 45C+ day - unlikely, and I hope it DOESN'T but I'll try for January 26th



As for the City of Melbourne (not my house in the southeast from where I've been taking and sharing my own observations):

The first 20C+ day came on August 22nd (21.2C)

The first 25C+ day came on September 23rd (25.8C)

The first 30C+ day came on October 12th (30.0C)

The first 35C+ day came on November 8th (35.2C)


Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
I thought I might have a go at predicting dates when certain 'high' overnight minimum temperatures are likely to be reached at my end this season! Most of these are just wild guesses, so I'm expecting to be way off the mark!! Lol smile

First 15C+ - September 13th (unless it happens tonight)
First 20C+ night - October 16th
First 25C+ night - November 26th
First 30C+ night - February 7th (hope it doesn't happen though)



The first 15C+ night came on September 1st (15.0C)

The first 20C+ night came on December 1st (21.1C)


As for my first 20C+ night, it happened on November 8th, with a low of 21.4C. The hottest night so far for me this season is December 14th, with a low of 21.6C. smile

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#1292350 - 18/12/2014 15:03 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Corryong's first 35C+ day occurred on November 14th, with a high of 37.9C. And the town's first 15C+ night followed straight afterwards, with a low of 17.3C on November 15th.

As for Merimbula, the town STILL hasn't hit 30C this season, with the hottest temperature only being 29.4C on November 20th. poke

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#1303300 - 25/01/2015 18:02 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It still hasn't reached 40 at Sydney Olympic Park this season and won't do so by the end of January. It just missed out on November 21 (when 39.9) although some Western Sydney stations did make it on that day. In fact Richmond cracked 45 on the Nov 23.

There may be more very hot days this season but they are less likely in February and almost unknown in March. It is likely that this is one of the 40% of seasons when it doesn't reach 40 in Sydney's middle ring.

Thinking about the coming Winter, there are no really interesting milestones near the coast. We may get our first sub-20 maximum this coming week and it may reach 30 in late April. First sub-16 max and sub 10 min are likely towards the end of May near the coast. Sub 10 max won't happen away from the tablelands.

The slide into Winter is gradual, with lots of warm days and nights on the way. The most conspicuous markers of the change of season in Sydney will be:

- the start of the NRL season - March 5 (or Rugby or AFL)
- the end of daylight saving (Apr 5)
- Deciduous trees start to turn (early April)
- Easter (same as end of Daylight Saving this year)

Away from the coast we have the first sub 5 and sub zero min and in some locations the first frost. Places above about 900 metres will have their first snow probably in June.

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#1303309 - 25/01/2015 18:16 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Agree that the cut off for a 40C day in Sydney is approaching. It certainly doesn't look like happening in the next 7 days. There is still time until mid Feb though, after that land temps back off from their summer peaks.

As for thinking about winter, I won't allow myself that luxury until the equinox. As you say, plenty of warm to hot weather ahead even if we don't get the extreme temps, particularly with SSTs so warm. On that note, one hot weather milestone still to come may be a DP above 25. May only happen if 850 temps also get to 25C.

I'll also eat my hat if we get a sub 20C max before Anzac Day in Sydney, apart from at elevated stations such as Terrey Hills. Bear in mind the Decile 1 maximum temperature for Jan/Feb is around 23C at most stations and stays above 20C until April.

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#1303517 - 26/01/2015 05:37 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Roberto Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2015
Posts: 3
What do you think about this lightnings map? http://lightandmaps.blogspot.com

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#1335316 - 15/07/2015 16:41 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
We could call tomorrow 'mid Winter's Day'. Although we are enjoying the snow and the cold spell, many of us are looking forward to the warmer months ahead. Spring is not far off, maybe only 4 to 6 weeks away. The wattles are in bloom, the jacarandas are turning yellow in preparation for their October displays and the days are just that bit longer than they were a couple of weeks ago. So here are my prognostications for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
First 20:         July 23. For once we aren't getting 20 degree days 
                  in mid Winter. Last one was June 24.

First 25:         August 22
First 30:         September 16
First 32.2 (90F): October 4 - yep, NRL Grand Final day.
First 35:         October 30

First 40:         November 28. Didn't happen last year but there is    
                  about an 80% chance of 40 being reached.

Hottest           43 on Jnuary 8

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#1335474 - 16/07/2015 15:34 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
For what it's worth (not very much), after the current cold spell ends next Tuesday, Accuweather has Sydney in average to above average temps until around the 13th of August. After that it goes below average again for the rest of August.***

Central Australia looks like it will heat up dramatically at the end of next week, so that first 25C day may be just around the corner, possibly at the beginning of August. If cold fronts stay away though, that heat won't get down here, so it's hard to predict at this stage.

***http://www.accuweather.com/en/au/sydney/22889/month/22889?view=table

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#1335514 - 16/07/2015 19:56 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
For Melbourne (including Belgrave where I live), my predictions for when certain temperature thresholds/milestones will be reached in the lead-up to summer are as follows:

First 20C+ day - August 21st
First 25C+ day - September 16th
First 30C+ day - October 12th
First 35C+ day - November 20th
First 40C+ day - December 23rd
First 45C+ day - January 26th (hopefully it doesn't come to fruition, I don't like hot, dry weather because of the bushfire risk!) frown

The last night for the winter season with a minimum of below 5C (along with the risk of frost) I'm predicting will be October 21st.

First 15C+ night - September 28th
First 20C+ night - November 21st
First 25C+ night - December 24th
First 30C+ night - February 8th (unlikely, it'll take a VICIOUS heatwave to keep the thermometer from dropping below 30C at night)

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#1335534 - 16/07/2015 20:53 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Yay, that time of year again. Love this whole predicting business! grin
First 20C+ day: Already happened
First 25C+ day: August 19th
First 30C+ day: September 11th
First 35C+ day: October 8th
First 100F/37.8C day: December 25th
First 40C+ day: Won't happen

Edit: I see we're doing nights now too...
First 10C+ night: July 23rd
First 15C+ night: September 12th
First 20C+ night: November 18th
First 25C+ night: Won't happen


Edited by GusO (16/07/2015 20:58)
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2017 Rainfall: 565mm ytd

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#1335540 - 16/07/2015 21:36 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
For Albion Park;

First 20C day: Jul 28th
First 25C day: Aug 26th
First 30C day: Oct 3rd
First 35C day: Nov 11th
First 40C day: Jan 5th
First 45C day: Jan 13th


Edited by Wave Rider (16/07/2015 21:37)
_________________________
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2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1335544 - 16/07/2015 21:47 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
For Townsville:
First 20C+ day: Already happened*
First 25C+ day: Already happened*
First 30C+ day: August 31
First 35C+ day: October 23
First 100F/37.8C day: January 5
First 40C+ day: Won't happen

First 10C+ night: Already happened**
First 15C+ night: Already happened***
First 20C+ night: August 27
First 25C+ night: November 4

Maybe bending the rules a bit if this was to start yesterday but:
* Until this cold outbreak every day this month was 25+
** Until this cold outbreak every night this month was 10+
*** Night 15+ has been already been recorded five times this month
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1335611 - 17/07/2015 00:54 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Alice springs going for a top of 27c next Thurs, feels like a dream looking at that, ahh heavenly. Can only hope that warmth gets swept down and heralds in an early spring.

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#1335718 - 17/07/2015 12:22 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Agreed Long Home Run! Come September the 'pre-monsoon' Build-Up will fire-up across Northern Australia and the Outback! Can't wait for that heat to be sucked south into Southern Australia and onto the East Coast and merge with the cold air from Antarctica to generate the stormy weather we get during spring and summer! grin

At least we're now at the half-way mark through winter! So ready for August!! grin

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#1336076 - 20/07/2015 15:17 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
That heat over Central Australia is still there but now looks like it will be brief ahead of another SE surge from the next significant cold front. So it looks like the big seasonal change over the centre will be delayed for another couple of weeks at least.

Also pleasing to see cloud still training from the Indian Ocean despite the forecast positive IOD.





Edited by HumphreyBear (20/07/2015 15:18)

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#1336409 - 24/07/2015 15:30 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A few places around Sydney cracked 20 earlier this afternoon, including Obs Hill @ 20.0, the first time it has been that warm there in 30 days. I expect that this would be the longest run of sub-20 maxima at that warm site in recent years, with 20 having being a regular occurence throughout Winter. I'll check when I get time.

However, the station that I nominated for this thread, Sydney Olympic Park, just missed the mark, having maxed out at 19.9.

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#1336449 - 24/07/2015 19:31 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
For Townsville:
First 10C+ night: Already happened**
First 15C+ night: Already happened***
First 20C+ night: August 27
First 25C+ night: November 4


The 20C+ night has occurred. The miniums for the last three days have been: 20.8, 21.3 and 21.6.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1336486 - 25/07/2015 15:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Reached 20.5 early this afternoon at Sydney Olympic Park, after looking earlier today like going much higher - it had passed 9:30 by 10:30AM. The remains of the cold front that passed through Victoria and the Southern inland of NSW probably took the edge iff the warmth.

Looks set for another 20+ tomorrow.

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#1337444 - 03/08/2015 07:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Just realised that my first 20C was on Jul 30th so I was off by 2 days.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1338950 - 20/08/2015 19:46 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first 20C+ day has finally occurred (one day ahead of schedule though). Peaked at 20.2C here in Belgrave today, but only made it to 17.1C in the Melbourne CBD. smile

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#1338954 - 20/08/2015 19:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I realised I forgot to make my predictions for Corryong, Northeast Victoria and for Merimbula, NSW South Coast! poke

Here they are... wink

Corryong:
First 20C+ day: September 16th 2015
First 25C+ day: October 10th 2015
First 30C+ day: November 12th 2015
First 35C+ day: December 1st 2015
First 40C+ day: January 6th 2016
First 45C+ day: unlikely (hope it doesn't happen anyway)

First 15C+ night - November 13th 2015
First 20C+ night - Unlikely but I'll try for January 7th 2016
First 25C+ night - Unlikely
First 30C+ night - Unlikely

Merimbula:
First 20C+ day: August 28th 2015
First 25C+ day: September 9th 2015
First 30C+ day: October 11th 2015
First 35C+ day: November 29th 2015
First 40C+ day: unlikely but I'll try for January 6th 2016
First 45C+ day: unlikely

First 15C+ night - November 30th 2015
First 20C+ night - Unlikely
First 25C+ night - Unlikely
First 30C+ night - Unlikely

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#1338961 - 20/08/2015 20:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
Hobart

20+......September 20
25+......October 13
30+......November 8
35+......December 29
40+......No real chance

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#1339095 - 22/08/2015 15:08 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park maxed out at 27.9 today, the first recording of 25+ for the season. My prediction was spot on, no doubt a happy coincidence. It was also the first 80F (26.7) of the season.

Next milestone is 30 on Sept 16, just over 3 weeks away.

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#1340243 - 04/09/2015 16:58 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 673
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
How about 30C in the Sydney basin on September 12th?

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#1340301 - 06/09/2015 08:06 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville's first 30+ day this season occurred on 3/9 with 30.5.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1340311 - 06/09/2015 13:43 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Melbourne's forecast to top 20C next Friday and Saturday (September 11th and 12th respectively). smile

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#1340335 - 06/09/2015 20:58 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
There probably will be monster heatwaves this summer due to massive El Nino.

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#1340338 - 06/09/2015 21:55 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
...TOMMY... Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2009
Posts: 508
Loc: Caroline Springs,119m asl, Vic
Looking at ACCESS 10 day chart looks like Melbourne could see it's first 25+ Degree day the week after this coming week, Mildura will most likely hit 30 if this comes off !
_________________________
TOMMY.

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#1341017 - 15/09/2015 15:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park got to 29.7 today, just missing out on the big 3-O. A few other Sydney locations also got very close, including OH, but Sydney Airport looks to have been the only Sydney station to get there, in fact the only station East of the ranges.

Looking at the models, it seems like 30 degrees will be off the table for Sydney for the next 10 days or so, maybe until October. The last time it failed to reach 30 in September at Sydney Olympic Park was 2010.


Edited by Steve777 (15/09/2015 15:43)
Edit Reason: Typo

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#1341019 - 15/09/2015 16:26 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: yep]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: yep
Hobart

20+......September 20
25+......October 13
30+......November 8
35+......December 29
40+......No real chance


26.9C in Hobart yesterday ( September 14 ) so there goes my first two guesses out the window.

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#1341029 - 15/09/2015 18:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Sydney Olympic Park got to 29.7 today, just missing out on the big 3-O. A few other Sydney locations also got very close, including OH, but Sydney Airport looks to have been the only Sydney station to get there, in fact the only station East of the ranges.


Albion Park also got close to the big 30, hitting 29.5C.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1342657 - 03/10/2015 11:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777
...So here are my prognostications for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
First 20:         July 23. For once we aren't getting 20 degree days 
                  in mid Winter. Last one was June 24.

First 25:         August 22
First 30:         September 16
First 32.2 (90F): October 4 - yep, NRL Grand Final day.
First 35:         October 30

First 40:         November 28. Didn't happen last year but there is    
                  about an 80% chance of 40 being reached.

Hottest           43 on Jnuary 8


It's just passed 30 degrees at Sydney Olympic Park for the first time this warm season, just over 2 weeks later than I predicted. It should get to 32 although the seabreeze might cut it off before we get there. It could reach 35 but I think that would be unlikely today.

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#1342689 - 03/10/2015 17:34 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It reached 33.7 at Sydney Olympic Park, so today also marked the first 90 deg F (32.2) of the season.

The forecast is for the first 35 tomorrow. After that the next milestone is 100 deg F which I note I forgot to forecast back in Winter. Let's go for November 11.

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#1342694 - 03/10/2015 18:22 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
For Albion Park;

First 20C day: Jul 28th
First 25C day: Aug 26th
First 30C day: Oct 3rd
First 35C day: Nov 11th
First 40C day: Jan 5th
First 45C day: Jan 13th


Well look at that... We got out first 30C day today, hitting 30.1C. And somehow I managed to get the correct date that it would happen!!

Mods, do I get a prize or something for that?? laugh
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1342726 - 03/10/2015 23:53 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Belgrave's first 25C+ day, first 15C+ night, and first 30C+ day for the season took place well ahead of my predicted dates of September 16th, September 28th, and October 12th respectively! smile

It reached 29.6C on September 13th, and dropped to 17.5C on September 14th. Meanwhile, it scored 30.6C yesterday (October 2nd). smile

Awaiting my last night below 5C for the year (and my last frost for the year), even though my most recent such minimum was on October 1st with a low of 4.7C; still got my prediction for October 21st. smile

Also eager to see if I'll experience my first 35C+ day and first 20C+ night for the season during the current heatwave across Victoria! smile

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#1342892 - 05/10/2015 15:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park peaked at 37.8 (100.0 deg F) earlier this afternoon. This was the first 35+ and the first 100+ deg F of the season, respectively 25 days and 37 days earlier than my prediction.

Next milestone is 40.

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#1342965 - 05/10/2015 23:10 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2067
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
I am sure nearly all those joining in this thread regard it a a bit of harmless fun. It is just a guessing game, without scientific meaning. Temperatures oscillate up and down with a weekly to fortnightly period, and change randomly from one day to the next.
However, news agencies now make stories from every local early occurrence of an early 30-degree day.

Like this:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/canbe...ds-began/377294
This is utter frivolity.
For every such early first hot day there are hundreds or thousands of cases where the first hot day is not early at all.
My own 16-year records show that the first 30-degree day this year (2nd October) is nine days later than the median date, which is the 23rd of September. In my data, the earliest 30-degree day was in 2009, on the 23rd of August. The latest was in 2010, on the 9th of November. The range of dates spanned 78 days!
As an indicator of the warmth of spring seasons, the mean daily maximum temperature is much more stable. Spring in 2010 did indeed have the coolest mean (24.09), but spring 2009 (at 28.28) did not have the warmest. The springs of 2013 (28.30) and 2014 (28.90) were warmer, but the warmest (at 29.23) was all the way back in 2002.
As for predicting summer heat...
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1343101 - 06/10/2015 23:35 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first 35C+ day, first 20C+ night, and first 25C+ night milestones (November 20th, November 21st, and December 24th respectively) have all been shattered during this latest heatwave across Victoria! eek

It topped 35.0C here in Belgrave yesterday (October 5th), before falling to only 25.1C last night! crazy

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#1343103 - 07/10/2015 04:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: yep]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
There's always next year crazy

Originally Posted By: yep
Hobart

20+......September 20
25+......October 13
30+......November 8
35+......December 29
40+......No real chance


2015
20+.......September 14
25+.......September 14
30+.......October 6

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#1343106 - 07/10/2015 06:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I said that the first 35C day would be on November 11th. However it happened just two days after the first 30, hitting 36.4C on October 5th.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1346602 - 05/11/2015 18:19 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
For Townsville:
First 20C+ day: Already happened*
First 25C+ day: Already happened*
First 30C+ day: August 31
First 35C+ day: October 23
First 100F/37.8C day: January 5
First 40C+ day: Won't happen

First 10C+ night: Already happened**
First 15C+ night: Already happened***
First 20C+ night: August 27
First 25C+ night: November 4

Maybe bending the rules a bit if this was to start yesterday but:
* Until this cold outbreak every day this month was 25+
** Until this cold outbreak every night this month was 10+
*** Night 15+ has been already been recorded five times this month


Townsville had its first 25C+ minimum for this season today of 25.1
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1349449 - 20/11/2015 14:01 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney Olympic Park passed 40 for the first time this season a little while ago, 8 days earlier than my guess. The max so far is 40.5, with probably another degree or two to go, subject to the arrival/non arrival of the sea breeze.

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#1349574 - 21/11/2015 13:21 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Well it got to 41.8C at Albion Park yesterday. Hit a top of 41C (unsure to decimal place yet).

So that means the 40C milestone was broken well over a month early.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1355847 - 29/12/2015 07:50 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: yep]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
My predictions:

Originally Posted By: yep

Hobart

20+......September 20
25+......October 13
30+......November 8
35+......December 29
40+......No real chance


and what happened:

20+......September 14
25+......September 14
30+......October 6
35+......December 25

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#1357786 - 09/01/2016 08:31 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
There's a small chance but I might get my 45C next Thursday which is just one day out from my prediction.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1384140 - 07/08/2016 00:01 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Wollongong Airport/Albion Park:

First 20C day- already happened
First 25C day- already happened
First 30C day- September 24th
First 35C day- November 10th
First 40C day- January 4th
First 45C day- won't happen
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1384306 - 09/08/2016 16:25 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
We are back to playing this game, the year has gone so fast.

Hobart
20+....Sep 1
25+....Sep 19
30+....Oct 28
35+....Dec 28
40+....Nope

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#1384322 - 09/08/2016 22:28 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 681
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hobart
20+ August the 16th ( next Tuesday )
25+ Sep 03
30+ Oct 07
35+ Oct 28
40+ Jan 25th

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#1384452 - 12/08/2016 07:40 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 626
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
For Murwillumbah NENSW:
20+ already happened
25+ already happened
30+ 12th of September
35+ 20th of November
40+ Won't happen

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#1384578 - 14/08/2016 19:18 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 681
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
A great chance now of the 20 c in Hobart this Tuesday . The BOM have been bumping up the forecast by 1 degree a day and now up to 19 c , in this late winter heat wave.

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#1384587 - 14/08/2016 23:00 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Melbourne:

First 20C+ day (this coming Thursday - August 18th)
First 25C+ day (September 10th)
First 30C+ day (October 12th)
First 35C+ day (November 18th)
First 40C+ day (December 16th)
First 45C+ day (hopefully won't happen, but January 21st)


Corryong, Northeast Victoria:

First 20C+ day (August 28th)
First 25C+ day (September 16th)
First 30C+ day (October 19th)
First 35C+ day (November 27th)
First 40C+ day (December 19th)
First 45C+ day (unlikely)


Merimbula, NSW South Coast

First 20C+ day (already happened - 21.1C on August 10th)
First 25C+ day (September 25th)
First 30C+ day (October 28th)
First 35C+ day (November 30th)
First 40C+ day (slim chance, but January 1st)
First 45C+ day (unlikely)

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#1389738 - 08/10/2016 09:30 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Two milestones knocked off for Sydney (Observatory Hill):

30C: 7 October
First night >20C: 8 October

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#1390434 - 16/10/2016 14:58 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
First 30C day for Albion Park arrived nearly a month later than expected. Finally reached 31.0C today.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1397066 - 13/12/2016 12:45 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Again the next milestone arrived about a month later than expected. Has scraped 38C so far today so that's the 35C milestone.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1404534 - 30/01/2017 13:34 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
First 40 finally happened today, reaching 41.7C a bit later than expected.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1429100 - 28/07/2017 17:52 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 626
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Here are my predictions for Murwillumbah, NENSW:
25C- Already reached
30C- 2nd of September
35C- 11th of November
40C- Won't happen

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#1429339 - 30/07/2017 22:22 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 63
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Hobart, Tasmania

20c - September 11th
25c - September 27th
30c - December 9th
35c - January 14th
40c - February 20th

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#1429342 - 30/07/2017 23:57 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
Hobart

20c...August 19
25c...October 5
30c...October 29
35c...January 6
40c...January 11

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#1429344 - 31/07/2017 01:57 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 63
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
We didn't even reach 35c this summer past.
Could be a warm one this time though!

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#1429347 - 31/07/2017 07:17 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
I reckon so too. Something a little bit cool seems to be followed by a massive extreme the other way these days.

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#1430445 - 11/08/2017 18:19 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: wet sky]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 626
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Originally Posted By: rainiac
Here are my predictions for Murwillumbah, NENSW:
25C- Already reached
30C- 2nd of September
35C- 11th of November
40C- Won't happen

Reached 30 degrees here today, just a tad off my prediction wink

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#1434081 - 15/09/2017 10:27 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Melbourne:

First 20C+ day - (already happened - August 14th)
First 25C+ day - (September 21st)
First 30C+ day - (October 15th)
First 35C+ day - (November 13th)
First 40C+ day - (December 19th)
First 45C+ day - (unlikely... hopefully)

First 10C+ night - (already happened - July 5th)
First 15C+ night - (September 22nd)
First 20C+ night - (November 14th)
First 25C+ night - (December 21st)
First 30C+ night - (unlikely... hopefully)

Last below 0C night - (not applicable, as it hasn't even happened haha)
Last below 5C night - (October 10th)
Last below 10C day - (already happened - August 3rd)
Last below 15C day - (November 22nd)


Belgrave:

First 20C+ day - (already happened - August 14th)
First 25C+ day - (September 21st)
First 30C+ day - (October 15th)
First 35C+ day - (November 13th)
First 40C+ day - (December 19th)
First 45C+ day - (unlikely... hopefully)

First 10C+ night - (already happened - July 25th)
First 15C+ night - (already happened - September 3rd)
First 20C+ night - (November 14th)
First 25C+ night - (December 21st)
First 30C+ night - (unlikely... hopefully)

Last below 0C night - (not applicable, as it hasn't even happened haha)
Last below 5C night - (October 22nd)
Last below 10C day - (already happened - September 5th, based on my observations with a high of only 9.9C, making it my coldest September day on record)
Last below 15C day - (November 22nd)


Corryong, Northeast Victoria:

First 20C+ day (September 20th)
First 25C+ day (September 21st)
First 30C+ day (October 16th)
First 35C+ day (November 13th)
First 40C+ day (December 19th)
First 45C+ day (unlikely... hopefully)

First 10C+ night - (September 23rd)
First 15C+ night - (October 17th)
First 20C+ night - (December 19th)
First 25C+ night - (unlikely... hopefully)
First 30C+ night - (unlikely... hopefully)

Last below 0C night - (October 4th)
Last below 5C night - (October 22nd)
Last below 10C day - (already happened - September 6th, based on observations at nearby Khancoban, NSW Snowy Mountains)
Last below 15C day - (November 21st)


Merimbula, NSW South Coast:

First 20C+ day (already happened - July 30th)
First 25C+ day (already happened - September 3rd)
First 30C+ day (October 18th)
First 35C+ day (November 14th)
First 40C+ day (unlikely... hopefully)
First 45C+ day (unlikely... hopefully)

First 10C+ night - (already happened - August 17th)
First 15C+ night - (October 19th)
First 20C+ night - (November 20th)
First 25C+ night - (unlikely... hopefully)
First 30C+ night - (unlikely... hopefully)

Last below 0C night - (already happened - August 29th)
Last below 5C night - (November 6th)
Last below 10C day - (not applicable, as it hasn't even happened haha)
Last below 15C day - (already happened - August 29th)


No point trying Suva, Fiji, as it's a tropical climate, and observations are hard to come by lol poke

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#1437880 - 18/10/2017 15:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: yep]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 356
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: yep
Hobart

20c...August 19
25c...October 5
30c...October 29
35c...January 6
40c...January 11


Thresholds so far reached in Hobart 2017..

20c...September 3
25c...October 17
30c...October 18

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