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#1114918 - 15/07/2012 08:26 Re: Temperature trends [Re: liberator]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 3248
Loc: Victoria Pt. SE Qld.
Anthony,
BoM are tied into WMO ( World Meteorological Organization ) specifications, and the Standard moving 30 year averages were in vogue decades before GW was invented.

As for equipment problems, blame successive Federal Govts of both colours for continually cutting back funding to BoM meaning more automation and less staff available for maintenance and inspections. With a site change ( in the case of The Alice the city is many kms from the airport with local microclimate variables ) there is always adjustment, taking into account surrounding stations. As for the dates highlighted I cannot comment.

Having just moved down here from 26 years in Townsville it is as well known fact that the current airport site is in the driest part of town ( hence Townsville's nickname of ' Brownsville ' ), in the rain shadow of Castle Hill ( except in TS activity ). The previous site was at the Port on the windward site of The Hill and saw higher rain. On the famous Night Of Noah ( 10 Jan 1998 ), the Airport site saw 549mm in the 24 hours, whereas many suburbs to the south and east saw falls of 700-750mm in the same period.

In a perfect world there would be AWS's every 10km over the whole country, doppler weather radars every 200km over the whole country and upper air stations spaced similarly. So which funding barrel should be robbed to set all this up, staff and maintain it..
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Vict Pt.2013(mm)1057(849),Jan-163(177),Feb-378(184),Mar-145(176),Apr-220(117),May-53(106),Jun-98(89),

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#1114922 - 15/07/2012 09:08 Re: Temperature trends [Re: retired weather man]
snafu Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1384
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Originally Posted By: retired weather man

In a perfect world there would be AWS's every 10km over the whole country, doppler weather radars every 200km over the whole country and upper air stations spaced similarly. So which funding barrel should be robbed to set all this up, staff and maintain it..

Well for a start, how about the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) or 'ThinkTank' as they like to be called. Over the past 4 years (Nov 2008 - present), $248,920,535.64 has been allocated in grants towards 'Climate Change' (nearly a quarter of a billion dollars!).

From those grants, BoM received $20,085,840.00 for 'equipment updates, maintainance, replacement etc'. The CSIRO also received $39,679,349.70 during this period.


Looks like a good place to start to me... grin


Edited by snafu (15/07/2012 09:17)
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#1114940 - 15/07/2012 10:40 Re: Temperature trends [Re: snafu]
snafu Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1384
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
May I just add that monies (donated) from 'BigOil', (eg Exxon/Mobil) to 'Climate Sceptics' (eg WUWT, Climate Audit, JoNova, Heartland Inst, etc) totals a HUGE, EXTRODINARY......~$23,000,000.............over a ten year period!

From World Govts.............$0.00


Edited by snafu (15/07/2012 10:44)
_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1114946 - 15/07/2012 10:58 Re: Temperature trends [Re: snafu]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 3248
Loc: Victoria Pt. SE Qld.

With regards to my earlier post on microclimates. Two further examples from just Townsville alone.

Firstly the current official site is located near to the Town Common, which is a large waterbird area. On winter nights when air drifts from this swamp a large fluctuations of temps can occur, commonly 3-5 deg over a 20 minute period. The greatest drop I personally observered was 7 degs in 30 minutes which really lowered the minimum for that morning. Other parts of the city would not have had that variation and if the official site would have been in one of these parts, that low minimum would not have been recorded.

Secondly on 2 June 2000 ( at height of Hockey Stick I might add ) the official minimum was 5.0 deg. I lived only 1.5km from the official site and my minimum was only 2 degs. But also to verify my low temp ice formed on cars in my yard which was in a heavily housed area and only 3 km from the sea ( not bad for the tropics and only 4m AMSL ). So what would my minimum have been if the area was exposed as per official specs.

My point here is that microclimates exist worldwide and unfortunately many sites around the world could see distorted data this way and are corrected to average out over the particular area using data from stations close by.

The ice picture is attached..

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Vict Pt.2013(mm)1057(849),Jan-163(177),Feb-378(184),Mar-145(176),Apr-220(117),May-53(106),Jun-98(89),

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#1114950 - 15/07/2012 11:26 Re: Temperature trends [Re: retired weather man]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 190
Loc: Kyabram
If as some posters have been implying - temperature changes are being made to existing data to help the AGW argument then should we not see this in the records available? What frequency/percentage or data changes were made prior to the AGW theory being postulated to now? Is there an actual increase in data changes since AGW was mooted or not. Is it provable?

I can see some of the logic against adjusting the Alice temp data. But the question needs to be asked – if the data from the site needs to be adjusted then is the site in the correct location? Who’s to say another site is going to be correct or incorrect? Yes clearly microclimates are a big issue. At what point do we decide to accept the data as reported/recorded without adjustment. It’s the official site for the areas temperatures so it should be accepted as reported. Our AWS weather station is ~2 ks from the town centre in the middle of a “farm” (used to be a DPI dairy research farm) – is this appropriate to be recording and reporting the towns temperature? Where is the right local and who decides this? This just adds another argument to the validity of temperature data.

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#1114955 - 15/07/2012 12:31 Re: Temperature trends [Re: liberator]
old_man_fisho Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/03/2012
Posts: 28
Originally Posted By: liberator
Yes they MAY have legitimate reasons to adjust data, but to the degree pointed out just seems to me, to be totally unacceptable. I get tired of reading the "justifications" for the data manipulation - and that is what it is - manipulation. I’ve said it before if I was to adjust any of the data my laboratory produces I'd be out of a job real fast. If the data is so wrong then remove it - don’t adjust it - that’s wrong wrong wrong.

CB keeps producing articles/reports or whatever to explain the reasons for these adjustments. The can give all the excuses they damn well please and all I have to say is its not Science to go tweaking your results. Report the real data and let people make their own decisions. If the issues is UHI or thermometers too close to air con vents or whatever damn excuses they need then ditch the data its not right - don’t adjust it take it out of the equation and data sets if it stinks things up that bad, otherwise you wind up with a nest of rotten eggs and they my friends will turn anyone’s stomach once they are cracked open to reveal the rot.

I could imagine food processors adjusting their data. Oh we had salmonella in that batch of infant formula but the batch we made yesterday and the day before didn’t so well use that data to release the batch to the public, In fact the batch would be destroyed and an investigation undertaken to find out how it came to be contaminated.

We have lots of things in place to check our data - blank controls, SRM materials (materials with known values), calibrated glassware, balances, thermometers etc etc so the data produced by the lab can be verified before its released to anyone and before product can be released to the consumer.

If you get booked for speeding by radar or cameras don’t we have the right to question the calibration of the equipment used to cause the fine to be raised in the first instance. Should it not be correctly calibrated or can we ask for the police to adjust the speed up/down do to other factors – it wasn’t me it was the car next to me, it was the sunlight….I was on my way to hospital….I question it and we all should and not take what we are told for granted. Some of the responses - reasons - excuses for data adjustment just seem too bogus to me.

Are weather data suppliers not providing data, which is paid for by the public and private enterprises? Should we not have the right to question that data and how it was obtained - how it was calculated and reported?

The Argo buoys that were being questioned because the data produced was not fitting what was expected. If the calibration of the buoys were confirmed then that data is usable – it should not be eliminated because it doesn’t fit expected outcomes. Thats not Scince - check the equipment and if the data doesnt fit find out why.

Recently we had a huge rainfall down poor in my hometown. Most home gauges recorded well over 100 mm. The local Bureau station AWS recorded very little (don’t recall the actual amount but well below 10 mm. Their instrument was broken due to a grass seed being lodged in the rain gauge. What did the bureau want to do? They wanted to use the rainfall data for us from an AWS that was 35 Km’s away who reported rain fall of less than 40 mm for the same period – how is that legitimate?

I’m tired of excuses for data adjustment. I’ll say it again – if the data is wrong and questionable then it’s not usable. You may wind up with pockets of missing data but I would prefer that to data that’s just plain WRONG.



I love your post liberator...you are a REAL scientist, keep up the awesome work! smile
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#1115098 - 16/07/2012 16:35 Re: Temperature trends [Re: old_man_fisho]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2095
Loc: Lilydale - Melbourne
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/07/boms-ne...max/#more-22725

More from this story we were talking about, it appears the Acorn data set is so good that 954 maximums are lower than the minimums on the same day.

Raw data is raw data, leave it as such and stop playing this ridiculous warming game.

We all know whats going on, its over, and its only a matter of time before the BOm ends up in the high court.
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#1115101 - 16/07/2012 16:47 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Anthony Violi]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2503

What is going on Anthony?

And what exactly is over?

And on what charges would the BOM be brought before the high court?
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#1115103 - 16/07/2012 17:03 Re: Temperature trends [Re: CeeBee]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2095
Loc: Lilydale - Melbourne
The game of pretending co2 is causing warming, you know the one?



It will start with NOAA and GISS first, and spread to the IPCC as well, unless they get spooked and jump first. And what the BOM has done here is follow in their footsteps. Its always a good idea if you are going to adjust the database, do it properly so it doesnt look so blatantly out of sync.
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#1115124 - 16/07/2012 19:57 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Anthony Violi]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2503
Is that all you got Anthony? A dodgy graph from god knows where? You could at least provide a link to the graph so that we and the High Court Judge can see if it's legitimate or not.

And just for your information Anthony - it is entirely possible for the U.S to not warm at the same rate as the rest of the Globe due to local climatic factors. That fact in no way negates the warming effect of CO2 globally.
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#1115126 - 16/07/2012 20:07 Re: Temperature trends [Re: CeeBee]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 449
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: CeeBee


And just for your information Anthony - it is entirely possible for the U.S to not warm at the same rate as the rest of the Globe due to local climatic factors. That fact in no way negates the warming effect of CO2 globally.


Bit hypocritical there mate seeing as thhough you are the one that keeps posting individual daily records for the US and say hey look its because of climate change! Now you say its possible it isn't warming as much cause of local climatic factors? It is called weather mate! Who is to say that in 5 years time all these recent heat records will be overrun by cold records. The earths temperature has flucuated through its entire history, it has been colder in the past and indeed hotter...way hotter! All you do is pick and choose the things that make it look like your dodgy argument is valid...the truth is we all see straight through you.

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#1115127 - 16/07/2012 20:11 Re: Temperature trends [Re: CeeBee]
snafu Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1384
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Therefore, IT'S NOT GLOBAL WARMING. If it's warm in the N/H, it's cool in the S/H.

Both hemisphere's have the same amount of CO2 in them.

Go figure....
_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1115130 - 16/07/2012 20:19 Re: Temperature trends [Re: gazzatsv]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2503
Originally Posted By: gazzatsv
Originally Posted By: CeeBee


And just for your information Anthony - it is entirely possible for the U.S to not warm at the same rate as the rest of the Globe due to local climatic factors. That fact in no way negates the warming effect of CO2 globally.


Bit hypocritical there mate seeing as thhough you are the one that keeps posting individual daily records for the US and say hey look its because of climate change! Now you say its possible it isn't warming as much cause of local climatic factors? It is called weather mate! Who is to say that in 5 years time all these recent heat records will be overrun by cold records. The earths temperature has flucuated through its entire history, it has been colder in the past and indeed hotter...way hotter! All you do is pick and choose the things that make it look like your dodgy argument is valid...the truth is we all see straight through you.


Yes - it has been hotter in the past - that is well understood - what is making it hotter now - we also know that - it is due to the CO2 from human activity.
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#1115131 - 16/07/2012 20:28 Re: Temperature trends [Re: snafu]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2503
Originally Posted By: snafu
Therefore, IT'S NOT GLOBAL WARMING. If it's warm in the N/H, it's cool in the S/H.

Both hemisphere's have the same amount of CO2 in them.

Go figure....


Here's a paper you might like to read...

Why is the Northern Hemisphere Warmer than the Southern Hemisphere?
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#1115132 - 16/07/2012 20:29 Re: Temperature trends [Re: CeeBee]
snafu Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1384
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Is that all you got Anthony? A dodgy graph from god knows where? You could at least provide a link to the graph so that we and the High Court Judge can see if it's legitimate or not.

If you look up the sides of the graph it says NOAA.... smirk
_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1115133 - 16/07/2012 20:35 Re: Temperature trends [Re: snafu]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2503



NOAA didn't construct that graph. Who did it and has their work been verified?
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#1115134 - 16/07/2012 20:37 Re: Temperature trends [Re: CeeBee]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2095
Loc: Lilydale - Melbourne
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Originally Posted By: gazzatsv
Originally Posted By: CeeBee


And just for your information Anthony - it is entirely possible for the U.S to not warm at the same rate as the rest of the Globe due to local climatic factors. That fact in no way negates the warming effect of CO2 globally.


Bit hypocritical there mate seeing as thhough you are the one that keeps posting individual daily records for the US and say hey look its because of climate change! Now you say its possible it isn't warming as much cause of local climatic factors? It is called weather mate! Who is to say that in 5 years time all these recent heat records will be overrun by cold records. The earths temperature has flucuated through its entire history, it has been colder in the past and indeed hotter...way hotter! All you do is pick and choose the things that make it look like your dodgy argument is valid...the truth is we all see straight through you.


Yes - it has been hotter in the past - that is well understood - what is making it hotter now - we also know that - it is due to the CO2 from human activity.



LOL! What are you on about? Co2 was 315ppm when all those records were broken 100 years ago. Don't you think there should be a lot more records broken, like about 20% on top of those current records, because Co2 has increased at that rate?? The disconnect is massive...
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#1115137 - 16/07/2012 21:11 Re: Temperature trends [Re: CeeBee]
snafu Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1384
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
what is making it hotter now - we also know that - it is due to the CO2 from human activity.

Something you may not know about CB, considering you frequent those other web-sites (you know, the AGW ones), is in a 1996 report by the UN on global warming, two statements were deleted from the final draft.

Here they are:

1)“None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed climate changes to increases in greenhouse gases.”

2)“No study to date has positively attributed all or part of the climate change to man–made causes”


To the present day there is still no scientific proof that man-made CO2 causes significant global warming.
_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1115147 - 16/07/2012 22:36 Re: Temperature trends [Re: CeeBee]
Bill Illis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 972
Originally Posted By: CeeBee



NOAA didn't construct that graph. Who did it and has their work been verified?



The NOAA released new weather records late last week.

1936 alone has 13 individual state records.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/searchrecs.php


Table of the record temps by state.

http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0177435abda6970d-pi

or the NOAA's table (hard to read)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/getextreme.php?elem=TMAX&state=NAT


Record maximum temperatures are not as easy to adjust, there is no TOBS, no station moves that allow a trend to be inserted. A record is a record.




Edited by Bill Illis (16/07/2012 22:41)

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#1115171 - 17/07/2012 09:13 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Bill Illis]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2503

That graph above needs to be updated to show the current records.

Seeing as this is the Temperature Trends thread lets have a look at the long term trend for the U.S.




link
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