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#74834 - 30/10/2009 21:31 Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Please no arguments about the validity of the stories either pro or con, just want to read as much as possible on the issue...

The Earth Cools, and Fight Over Warming Heats Up

Many Scientists Say Temperature Drop From Recent Record Highs Is a Blip, While a Few See a Trend; Inexact Climate Models

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125686509223717691.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories


Edited by Seabreeze (23/10/2012 20:28)

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#74835 - 30/10/2009 22:28 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
BOM99 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
I am far from certain yet that any cooling has taken place. As far as I am concerned the jury is still out on that. Unfortunately we will have to waite possibly at least until 2020 before any cooling could be considered significant. One thing that is not being taken into account very well is the fact that the heating is far from even. Continents are warming more in the summer when a heating weather pattern takes place but still are able to reach the lows of winter when heating patterns are removed. I think that the extra warmth from CO2 may be far more volotile than the way models predict. It is far from a simple add 2deg to all temps and there is your result as most models seem to suggest.

Certainly here any cooling of 2007/8 has already been wiped out by 2009. And when you look at temps in continental Russia you still see very widespread + anomalies through the summer and early autumn and only brief spikes reaching normal winter lows.

Anyway as far as I can see the jury is out on any cooling, at this stage its no different to one mild day in a month of heat and nothing to get exited about.

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#74836 - 30/10/2009 23:04 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
that,s not a news article? Please no arguments about the validity of the stories either pro or con, just want to read as much as possible on the issue...
What's the thread called?

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#74837 - 30/10/2009 23:11 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Here's an example,

Cold Facts on Global Warming
What is the contribution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide to global warming? This question has been the subject of many heated arguments, and a great deal of hysteria. In this article, we will consider a simple estimate based on well-accepted facts, that shows that the expected global temperature increase caused by doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide levels is bounded by an upper limit of 1.76±0.27 degrees Celsius. This result contrasts with the results of the IPCC's climate models, whose projections are shown to be unrealistically high. Even though global warming has become mostly an academic concern now that the climate has moved into a cooling phase [24], it's still important to understand what is and is not factual about the climate.
http://brneurosci.org/co2.html

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#74838 - 31/10/2009 01:04 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Anemoi Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/08/2009
Posts: 45
Loc: sub-tropics
How about videos
A self-proclaimed former AGW 'skeptic' and his amazing footage and commentary on the significant increase in glacier melting due to global warming.
Part of a global ice survey.
Excellent talk from an intelligent informed person, who has literally seen it for themselves.

Time-lapse proof of extreme ice loss
extreme ice loss

About this talk

Photographer James Balog shares new image sequences from the Extreme Ice Survey, a network of time-lapse cameras recording glaciers receding at an alarming rate, some of the most vivid evidence yet of climate change.

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#74839 - 31/10/2009 01:54 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/05/2009
Posts: 486
Loc: Brisbane
oh is a TED show hehe. i can see this thread being locked quickly..

the glaciers percentage is an exact inverse of the AMO, gee who would have thought..

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#74840 - 31/10/2009 01:58 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/05/2009
Posts: 486
Loc: Brisbane
Quote:
Originally posted by Simmosturf:
that,s not a news article? Please no arguments about the validity of the stories either pro or con, just want to read as much as possible on the issue...
What's the thread called?
there is no point to that. all we would see is spin. i think we shoud be open to discuss the science and not just the medias rubbish.

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#74841 - 31/10/2009 01:58 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Anemoi
Most fascinating time lapse I have seen . But thats all that is . It doesnt proof anything . It only proofs that the author of that is an alarmist. Why he didnt go to that harbour in Alaska which was was bloged by advancing glacier and wiped out livehood of some fishermen ?
It woudnt suite his boss who grants him.
Simple question . Why the Fox and Franz Joseph glaciers are advancing , and the Tasman glacier is retreating ? All 3 have same accumulation zone !! If you work it out , then you must agree with me , that the author is missleading and should go to jail .

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#74842 - 31/10/2009 02:25 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/05/2009
Posts: 486
Loc: Brisbane
http://www.tsaugust.org/Global_Warming_Articles_Pg2.htm#Warming

peer reviewed article from braithwaite-

http://ppg.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/26/1/76

Glaciers and Global Warming.

The retreat of some glaciers has been widely reported in the media. What has not been widely reported is that some glaciers are increasing in mass.

Within Europe,"Alpine glaciers are generally shrinking, Scandinavian glaciers are growing, and glaciers in the Caucasus are close to equilibrium for 1980-95." According to Dr. R. J. Braithwaite, (School of Geography, University of Manchester, England)

Temperatures undoubtedly affect glaciers. The question is: Are glaciers a proxy for the canaries that signaled danger in coal mines, in so far as global warming is concerned?

There are only 115 glaciers that have a five year record of mass balance data and only 42 that have a ten year data record.

In an analysis of mass balance in Arctic glaciers, it was found that the rate of loss of mass has decreased in the recent past, a period in which increasing amounts of CO2 should have resulted in faster loss of mass if there were a direct correlation between global warming, CO2 and loss of mass in glaciers.

Even more telling is that there are 160,000 glaciers in the world and only 67,000 (42%) have been inventoried to any extent. There are only slightly more than 200 for which mass balance data is available for one year or more (including the 115 mentioned above).

It is not possible for such a small (200) sample, not selected randomly, to provide a scientific basis for drawing any conclusions about the relationship between glaciers and global warming.

In addition the retreat of some glaciers can be attributed to a specific cause. For example, Mt Kilimanjaro has lost 80% of its glacier since 1912. Findings recently published by Nature indicate that the loss of forests on Kilimanjaro’s foothills has been the cause of the glaciers demise. The lack of humidity from the forests to replenish and sustain the glacier has resulted in the glacier melting under the equatorial sun. Furthermore, satellite temperature readings taken since 1979 show no increase in the temperature of the troposphere in the Kilimanjaro region.

January 25, 2004

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#74843 - 31/10/2009 06:41 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Oh ok then mobi, go for your life.
:wave: :wave: That was a good story.

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#74844 - 31/10/2009 07:31 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
Vlasta,

The Tasman system and the Franz Fox systems are very different in nature, and about the only thing they have in common is high level snowfalls and a location in New Zealand.

The Tasman is a piedmont glacier, sustained by ice flow from lateral sources, especially the Hochstetter Icefall that descends from the Grand Plateau. In living memory some of these feeder sources have shrunk back from the piedmont trunk of the Tasman so that they contribute only melt water, not ice. The Tasman is now rotten with melt water from top to bottom and is disappearing into lakes. Until the core temperature falls below freezing this wasting will continue apace, as the healthy flows from those tributary glaciers that continue to contribute cannot replace the loss and the head neve around Tasman Saddle is on its own too small to nourish a glacier of its length.

The Fox and Franz are now individual ice streams, and very spectacular ones too. They benefit from the much higher precipitation on the west coast of the south island. The cycle of these glaciers is incredibly short, and they renew themselves in less than a decade. They exhibit short term advance and retreat cycles related directly to precipitation. By comparison some of the ice that has stangated on the bottom of the deepest parts of the Tasman has been found to be nearly as old as the current glaciation, that is, around 600 years.

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#74845 - 31/10/2009 07:42 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
mobihci,


The empirical facts about temperate zone glaciers is that they are overwhelmingly wasting away. They have vanished into grasses, stones and remnant ice pools in West Papua. They have vanished or shrunk from much of South America in terms of extent, and this is also true of North America, Europe and the Himalayas. There were a few standouts, including alas only a tiny part of the European Scandinavian ice fields and on Mt Shasta in California, where we see a direct correlation with increased rainfall from lower level stations. The 'were' bit is sad but true. Last northern summer held out the promise of significant enduring snow pack at higher elevations in parts of the Tetons, Sierras and Cascades and it was all washed away between late August and late September.

I'm still hoping for some degree of positive growth from the last solar minimum but it doesn't look too good. The deep minimums of 1901 and 1913 did coincide with some stunning winters world wide, including massive snowfalls in Australia and the freezing solid of the Niagara Falls for example, yet the summers between those two minimums were incredibly balmy and completely wasted the brutal winters between them.

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#74846 - 31/10/2009 09:40 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
All very interesting but the way I see it this is another avenue/path in response AGW thread being closed last week by the mods, all I see is this thread heading up the same path again.
I'm suprised the mods haven't caught on yet

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#74847 - 31/10/2009 09:51 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Anemoi Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/08/2009
Posts: 45
Loc: sub-tropics
Quote:
Originally posted by Simmosturf:
that,s not a news article? Please no arguments about the validity of the stories either pro or con, just want to read as much as possible on the issue...
What's the thread called?
In regard to this topic, this forum is a complete joke.
Some people apparently aren't allowed to comment or add their perspective (according to Simmo), while others are?
Oh Vlasta, if it was a jailing offense to be ill-informed, wrong, ignorant or stupid.
Everyone, here and elsewhere, would be doing some time, at some time.
Ridiculous, arbitrary rules and unsubstantiated accusations reflect the weakness of arguments. Why the need to censor/inhibit/attack some peoples contributions, if not because the actual facts of the matter reflect badly on the argument you're trying to make?

bye

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#74848 - 31/10/2009 09:56 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
The last post validates my previous post its heading the same way infact its already started basically this thread is a branch from the other thread nothing has changed

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#74849 - 31/10/2009 10:43 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
BOM99 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
It is interesting that although models are in agreement that it must get warmer from extra CO2, just a question of how much, they show no agreement on rainfall from extra CO2.

Temperature projections for Australia from AGW
Rainfall projections for Australia from AGW

I think that rainfall will get more intense and sporadic in nature everywhere but overall slightly less rain inland and slightly more on the coast. So it may seem like overall there is still the same rainfall for Australia but the usefulness of the rain will be reduced because it is not falling evenly and often and higher temps will make it dry out faster.

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#74850 - 31/10/2009 11:34 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
Johnoo,

In the spirit of the opening comments people seemed to have avoided the culture wars that occurred in the other thread. That is a positive. And there are interesting articles out there, whatever we think, or hope for.

I'm fascinated by glaciers, their variability, their natural history, their beauty and their terror, to steal a 'riff' from a well known poem, so discussing them is something of a passion whatever they reveal as science studies them more closely.

There is something special about the high mountains. The transition through the woods to the tree line, and from the tree line to the grass line, and on into the high thin air, until you reach the realm of the glaciers is a fine experience, but in many places, not one our grand children will know.

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#74851 - 31/10/2009 12:34 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/05/2009
Posts: 486
Loc: Brisbane
Quote:
Originally posted by Ben Sandilands:
mobihci,


The empirical facts about temperate zone glaciers is that they are overwhelmingly wasting away. They have vanished into grasses, stones and remnant ice pools in West Papua. They have vanished or shrunk from much of South America in terms of extent, and this is also true of North America, Europe and the Himalayas. There were a few standouts, including alas only a tiny part of the European Scandinavian ice fields and on Mt Shasta in California, where we see a direct correlation with increased rainfall from lower level stations. The 'were' bit is sad but true. Last northern summer held out the promise of significant enduring snow pack at higher elevations in parts of the Tetons, Sierras and Cascades and it was all washed away between late August and late September.

I'm still hoping for some degree of positive growth from the last solar minimum but it doesn't look too good. The deep minimums of 1901 and 1913 did coincide with some stunning winters world wide, including massive snowfalls in Australia and the freezing solid of the Niagara Falls for example, yet the summers between those two minimums were incredibly balmy and completely wasted the brutal winters between them.
you paint a picture there ben, well lets look at the real picture-

http://www.letka13.sk/~jurinko/swiss_glaciers_vs_AMO.gif

so they are different than they were?

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#74852 - 31/10/2009 13:19 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
What is telling from that chart is during an AMO cool phase, which is going to effect Europe stronger than most places on the planet, half of the glaciers are still retreating (and half advancing). While AMO is postive nearly all of them are.

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#74853 - 31/10/2009 13:32 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Quote:
Originally posted by snowmi:
It is interesting that although models are in agreement that it must get warmer from extra CO2, just a question of how much, they show no agreement on rainfall from extra CO2.

Temperature projections for Australia from AGW
Rainfall projections for Australia from AGW

I think that rainfall will get more intense and sporadic in nature everywhere but overall slightly less rain inland and slightly more on the coast. So it may seem like overall there is still the same rainfall for Australia but the usefulness of the rain will be reduced because it is not falling evenly and often and higher temps will make it dry out faster.
Keep in mind that same rainfall and higher temperatures is going to mean drier conditions due to increased evaporatinos.

In areas such as Brisbane where there is a good chance of no significant reduction in rainfall the trend towards heavier rain less often will be good for large dams such as Brisbane's urban water supply which rely on relatively rare heavy rain events.

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