JMA Updates for Sun 29/07 at 2pm CST
STS Saola is a threat to Taiwan. The JMA 5-day forecast has changed this afternoon and now has the system passing very close to the capital Taipei.

Both systems are a threat to eastern China (Shanghai).
Either or both will make landfall near Shanghai.

Depending on how the two systems interact with each other and the actual timing the trajectory of 1 system may be deflected. This means one could hit Japan or Korea.

STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 29 July 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°25'(17.4°) E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

TS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 29 July 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°55'(25.9°) E145°50'(145.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM) SW220km(120NM)

Here's a good article on the phenomenon of 'hot towers' in Typhoon Vincente which immediately preceded its explosive intensification:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Vicente.html

JMA update for Mon 30/07 at 3pm CST / 5pm AEST
I have seen reports of flooding in the Philippines (including the capital MANILA)
The monsoon trough and STS Saola has bought torrential rain to the Philippines.
Water vapour loops show a lot of convection.

Noticeable change in the 5-day forecast from JMA with the trajectory for DAMREY shifting from north of Shanghai, China to near Dalian, China and the trajectory for SAOLA shifting south to somewhere between Ningde, China and Wenzhou, China

STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 30 July 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°05'(20.1°) E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

TS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 30 July 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°25'(25.4°) E144°40'(144.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM) SW220km(120NM)

JMA update for Tue Jul 31 at 5pm AEST / 3pm CST
STS Saola has increased in size to a massive 1,500km and is bringing torrential rain to Taiwan. Landslides, extreme flooding and massive damage will occur in Taiwan with the system forecast to INTENSIFY and to move to a position dangerously close to Taipei

STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 31 July 2012

Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N21°05'(21.1°) E123°40'(123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL750km(400NM)

STS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 31 July 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N28°35'(28.6°) E138°55'(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM) SW330km(180NM)

Taiwanese Typhoon Warning:
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/warning/I10big.htm?

Taiwanese Typhoon Information
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?

3-day JMA track/intensity forecast:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1209c.html

JWTC forecast graphic:
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1012.gif

MTSAT IR West Colorized Loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

Deep-Layer Wind Shear - West Pacific - Latest Available - Large Scale
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

The forecast rainfall amounts for the northern, eastern & mountainous parts of Taiwan look pretty hefty, even for them.

The 1st image is an output from the GFS ensemble for 10pm tonight to 10pm Thu night. Considering the somewhat lower resolution of ensembles, I wouldn't be at all surprised if total rainfall amounts exceeded several hundred mm or more:

The 2nd image is the Extreme Forecast Index map for precip (this one is currently freely available) between 10am tomorrow & 10am Thu from the EC ensemble where values around 1.0 basically represent the most extreme end of the scale.

Oh & not to mention topographic enhancement of the rainfall amounts by the mountainous terrain on Taiwan as well.

Link to Taiwan Rain Radar
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

JMA update for Wed Aug 1 at 10am AEST / 8am CST
Typhoon Saola moving very slowly closer to Taiwan and to eventual landfall in SE China

Link to Chinese (English) news article
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/724358.shtml

TY 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 1 August 2012

Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°40'(22.7°) E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL750km(400NM)

STS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 01:45 UTC, 1 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N30°05'(30.1°) E132°20'(132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM) SW330km(180NM)

Heavy rainbands affecting northern Taiwan
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/index_N.htm?type=0

JMA update for Wed 01/08 at 5pm AEST / 3pm CST
JMA forecast has destructive winds for the north Taiwanese coastline (including TAIPEI)

JMA Links
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/120924c.html
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/121024c.html

CWB Links
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/warning/I10big.htm?
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/index.htm
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/rainfall/hk.htm

TY 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 07:40 UTC, 1 August 2012

Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°30'(23.5°) E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE750km(400NM) NW560km(300NM)

STS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 07:45 UTC, 1 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N30°30'(30.5°) E130°20'(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM) SW330km(180NM)

JMA summary on Thu 02/08 at 10am AEST / 8am CST
Typhoon Saola causing chaos in Taiwan
Severe Tropical Storm Damrey moving into the East China Sea
new Tropical Depression out at sea

STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 2 August 2012

Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N23°30'(23.5°) E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SW560km(300NM) NE460km(250NM)

STS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 2 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N32°50'(32.8°) E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 40km/h(21kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E390km(210NM) W280km(150NM)

TD
Issued at 22:05 UTC, 1 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity - TD
Center position N23°25'(23.4°) E146°20'(146.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

Taiwan situation:
At 3.20am CST (5.20am AEST) the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau (CWB) has reported that Typhoon Saola [960HPa] made landfall over Xiulin, Hualien in eastern Taiwan.

Rainfall totals in the northern half of Taiwan are extremely high
Hualien 485.5mm (from 12am CST to 9am CST for Thu Aug 2)

Total rainfall during the last 3 days has gone well over 1,000mm in some areas with extensive flooding occurring. Taipei has been shut down with disruptions to the airport, rail and roads. Government has ordered all businesses and offices closed in Taipei for today

News link to the Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia...fLQX_story.html

up to 72 hour rainfall totals for Taiwan:
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/rainfall/Q24.htm

Yilan 1768.5 C0U71 Taipingshan Datong Township, Yilan County

JMA update for Thu 2/8 at 7pm AEST / 5pm CST
Saola causes havoc in Taiwan. Rain will continue in Taiwan for at least 24 hours.
Landfall imminent in Shandong province, China
Tropical Depression intensifying out at sea

STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 August 2012

Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N25°10'(25.2°) E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL560km(300NM)

TY 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 10:00 UTC, 2 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N34°10'(34.2°) E121°25'(121.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

TD
Issued at 10:15 UTC, 2 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity - TD
Center position N23°25'(23.4°) E145°00'(145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

China Meteorological Administration
http://typhoon.weather.gov.cn/

CMA has Typhoon Damrey with a central pressure of 960HPa making landfall near Lianyungang, Jiangsu. With maximum 3-sec gusts exceeding 200km/hr near the centre and the system moving WNW at 35km/hr there will be some very strong gusts at landfall

JMA updates for Fri 03/08 at 4pm AEST / 2pm CST
heavy rainfall in China after two systems made landfall overnight
new system forecast to intensify to a typhoon and be offshore from China Wed Aug 8th

JMA link for Tropical Storm Haikui
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1211.html

TD (formerly Saola)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 3 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity - TD
Center position N28°00'(28.0°) E118°00'(118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 992hPa

TD (formerly Damrey)
Issued at 06:55 UTC, 3 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity - TD
Center position N37°00'(37.0°) E118°00'(118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa

TS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 3 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°10'(24.2°) E140°10'(140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM) W330km(180NM)

JMA update for Sat 04/08 at 10am AEST / 8am CST / 9am JST
Haikui intensifying and forecast to be a typhoon by Tue 07/08
This is a threat to SE China (near SHANGHAI), southern Japan and possibly south Korea
another TD developing well out to sea

TS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 4 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°55'(24.9°) E135°00'(135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE600km(325NM) SW330km(180NM)

TD
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 4 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity - TD
Center position N23°30'(23.5°) E161°50'(161.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

JMA update for Tue 07/08 at 4pm AEST / 2pm CST
Severe Tropical Storm at 965HPa
Destructive winds beginning to affect part of the coastline for Zhejiang Province, China
200,000 people evacuated in Shanghai. some areas in Zhejiang province forecast to receive 700mm.
3rd system to hit China in 7 days

STS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 7 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°40'(27.7°) E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N440km(240NM) S330km(180NM)

JMA update for Wed 08/08 at 10pm AEST / 8pm CST
At 3.20am CST landfall occurred in Xiangshan Country, Zhejiang Province.
The central pressure at landfall was 965HPa.
Destructive winds affected a large area and parts of Shanghai.
The centre has moved over Hangzhou and is moving WNW further inland
Torrential rain occurring over a large area

TS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 8 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N30°25'(30.4°) E119°25'(119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM) SW280km(150NM)