I would not fully rule out anything for SH yet, the wind will be more in SSW quadrant than WSW by Thursday night/early Friday, that is the time BM and SH could get lucky with a few coldies.

18z GFS shows little change, 12z EC Ensamble at only +120h also looks healthy enough. I still have some concerns just how much snow will fall because of the higher pressure than ideal, 10cm quite possible here, but possibly just a stock standard 5cm fall with temps between -1 and 0 during the snow. Hopefully no further downgrades now, I tend to think models will now hold fairly steady until the event. Hopefully some positive surprises could still happen. But at least its looking like this will not be the first winter here without at least a freezing snowfall.

I haven't yet looked at the overnight models, but if Thursday is to be the day I'll be able to give a first-hand report, as I'll be driving from Batemans Bay to Millthorpe via Jamberoo, Goulburn, Oberon and Bathurst.

Should be an interesting drive Laurier, what time do you think you will be going over the highest areas South of Black Springs?. I will be thinking about what you must be driving through as I watch the incoming front, let us know some highlights.

Probably early to mid afternoon.

Should be a good time for some development. Only trouble is I just saw 00z GFS and it seems to have downgraded a bit more. The track of the cold pool from the Southern Ocean really has changed a little since models a few days ago. Its still -40 at 500mb while down there, but then does not get the same slingshot it needed to go around the west of Tassie. Rather now it tends to go through Tassie stalling a little and failing to produce that strong SW airstream over NSW as high pressure tends to squeeze it too fast off the mainland. It could again be the case of too much high pressure and that slightly weaker polar vortex that are not letting systems to be as good as they should be.

Still will be cold and will be some snow, but on current models the heavier showers would finish as snow only around 9-10am on Thursday, then lighter colder snow showers over the next 24 hours that would only produce dustings along the tablelands because the colder upper temps move offshore too fast by Thursday night. We still have the sub -30 500mb temps clearly passing over the CT's on Thursday that still has not changed in any model run, but pressure is too high still 1015mb. But also the upper cold barely achieves the movement over the inland needed to stop the whole system disappearing into the Tasman too fast.

Lets hope EC and its Ensemble look slightly better at least, still could be a good cold change, but chances now that it could be a bit marginal. Models are now only 96h from Thursday 00z so room for change is diminishing quickly. Still likely to be better than anything so far this year but still no guarantee it will the decent cold change hoped for.

There seems to be general agreement among GFS, ACCESS-G and EC at the moment. The upside of this is that they're all going for quite a cold air mass (the former two have sub 528 thicknesses in NSW, so possibly an understatement) in association with a good southerly jet, but the concerning part is that the whole thing may become anticyclonic quite quickly.

GFS and ACCESS-G are strikingly similar at 12Z Thursday, and at this stage it looks like fun (even for the eastern ranges).

On a somewhat off topic but arguably related note, keep an eye on obs from Maatsuyker Island overnight. Winds are already 56 gusting 71 (!) knots there and the low responsible is forecast to pass close by over the next several hours with a very tight pressure gradient to its north. The effect of this low has of course been felt in NSW today with winds pretty fresh in exposed parts. We got up to 36 knots during the afternoon.

Yes EC looks quite similar too now although I think its just a tad better. Ensemble also keeps the upper cold air right on the NSW coast on Friday. The most interesting 24 will be between 00z Thursday and 00z Friday, what exactly happens in that 24 hours is still subject to minor variations. Given the closeness of the upper cold and with 850's below zero that whole time there will be room for small variations on the day. These could be enough to produce some ok snowfalls in some places depending on those little variations.

Andrew, thanks for mentioning the wind on Maatsuyker Island, this cold change tonight is fairly decent too. I even managed to get 2mm here a short time ago despite being so far well north of it. But we should get a pretty decently cold day tomorrow out of this even before that next proper cold change. Only one warmish/mildish day on Wednesday in between.

BOM are talking snow showers on thursday afternoon down to 700m.
I wish i could head out on thursday arvo for a chase but the wifes working that nite.
I will look forward to all the updates !

Its quite odd that they would be forecasting snow to 700m when the forecast temps for Orange are currently 3-7. Those figures just do not match. The forecast temps for Thursday for Orange should be 1-5 and the forecast snow level should be 900m.

There has been one notable change at the 06z model tonight, that is that at 4am Friday in near peak cold the precipitation model has filled in an area from the Illawarra through SH and to the BM and CT with a possible 5mm. This is thanks to those strong SSW even almost SSE winds accompanied by cold uppers before they move away.

In this set up Blizz and Aslaws would certainly see settled snow and probably a little in SH as well. Not one previous model has yet shown this minor variation until now.

Glad for the honorary mention PD - long time between settled snowfalls here so hope you are on the money. Will head to your neck of the woods Thursday with the kids to find some more kangaroo tracks in the snow (ie May 2011) if things look uncertain here in the Worlds Heritage Listed BMs.

Thanks to PD for the words of encouragement for us southern highlands folk. I'm stuck at home unable to drive this week following a shoulder reconstruction, so chasing from home is the best I can do.

Yes, Maatsuyker is a tad blowy and cool even by its standards. Since 6pm its 10-minute average windspeeds have been between 100 and 117km/h with gusts well into the 130s. At 2.34pm the temperature dropped to 4.0C with the passage of the cold front, which with the wind 91 gusting 100km/h and steady rain would have made it a great place to be, but only for weather nuts.

We have just had 5 minutes of small hail here at Millthorpe. I wasn't expecting it and wondered what on earth was happening. The temperature is 8.5C and the hail was an unusual clear jagged ice.

The EC snowfall output based on the 00z run has up to 5cm snow on the OP and in the broader Orange/Blayney area between 10am Thursday and 10am Friday, with lighter snow on the NT on Friday morning. These depths would be based on precipitation averaged over an area, so you'd expect variation. EC has 850 temps below -2 moving rapidly into the southern half of the CT around 4pm Thursday while the area has 850 temps below -4 between about midnight and midday Friday, extending briefly to the NT late on Friday morning. The 850hPa height is at around 1440m throughout the period.

The GFS precipitation type map (which is on a much coarser scale) is broadly similar for the CT, though it has snow starting and finishing 3 to 6 hours later. It shows no snow for the NT. GFS 850 temps are similar in timing to EC, but temperatures don't get below -4.

GFS, EC and ACCESS-G show a well developed southerly jet extending 2/3 of the way from Tasmania to Antarctica with a 70-90 knot core moving from west of Tassie at 10am Thursday to lie along the NSW coast 24 hours later, bringing heaps of cold air with it. Middle level moisture along the CT and NT is patchy and on some models at some times lacking. Lower level moisture is better but seldom above 70%, with ACCESS-G doing an about-face and now the moistest of all three models. This may be because the models are averaging moisture between showers and clear spells. All three models show strong instability on the Thursday afternoon and evening, dropping away early on the Friday morning.

So after all that assessment I agree with Andrew and Peter - it does look like it could be fun from late morning Thursday to late morning Friday, with the possibility of snow also on the SH and NT. All this is based on a good look at this morning's models and we still have a way to go, but the ensembles for EC and GFS are looking more comforting this morning and hopefully there won't be any nasty surprises, just refinements.

No worries Aslaws, but do not go too early or you may miss the best snow. Currently I am thinking Friday morning will be the most ideal for settled snow. But I guess you want to see the snow at home too, would not want to miss that. Best idea would be to see the snow at home at the crack of dawn Friday and then head out in the early morning. Only problem is the police with their silly road closures and silly people with bad tyres and no driving skills that cause that.

Ideal for me PD would be to see the change hit up your way & then scuttle back to the BMs before the real cold & snow hits up here. Some settled snow draped over Narrow Neck is what I am hoping for.

Just imagine the 3 sisters dusted in snow like the rocky outcrops of northern Arizona. Hope I see some pics of sandstone in snow.

Laurier, I too have been surprised by the showers tonight, amazing you had hail too. Models did show them, but I still found it hard to believe given how far away the cold change is.

I think the rationale is that both the min of 3 and max of 7 are set before the cold air moves in early to mid afternoon. They are also what OCF says (3.3/6.7) for the airport and there's a tendency to follow OCF.

Of great interest is the Forecast Explorer which shows widespread snow on the southern ST around Cooma/Bombala and generally in the Monaro from Thursday morning to Friday afternoon, on the OP for 1pm Thursday and 1pm Friday (the times between show no precipitation at all!!!), and widespread snow on the NT right through Friday. All this suggests that, by the forecasters reasoning, if there is precipitation on the CT during Thurs/Fri it will fall as snow in a fairly widespread manner.

The FE is part of the Bureau's NexGen Forecast and Warning System and displays the status of the Australian Digital Forecast Database, updated twice daily around 6am/6pm. It's quality controlled by the forecasters, so it's a digital version of their text forecasts which are in most cases automatically derived from it. So it's the best information we have about the BoM forecasters' thinking.

Thanks Laurier - I'd not realised the FE included maps of likely snowfall. I'm hoping moisture picks up in coming days and we get somd settled snow in the highlands.

Ive been looking at snow forecast.com for a few years now and ive never seen such widespread snow in nsw map that it pedicts will fall on friday at 4am.
Hopefully this one comes off. It might end up sleeting in hilltop near picton.

It is a cold air mass, would be nice to see something less ridgy. Could still give the BM two or three cm then an icy, crusty cover come Friday.