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#1111299 - 26/06/2012 00:36 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: crikey]
Arnost Offline
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Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
Quote:
This sub surface anomaly published by BOM should suffice


Why? Reading carefully, isn't the driver the SSTs? i.e. the Sea Surface Temperatures?

Quote:
Composite SSTs are warmer for El Niño years than those for all other years as early as June–August of year(−1) in the Niño-4 region. Figure 1 shows SST and wind-speed anomalies during June–November(−1) for each regime. Although the large-scale SST and wind patterns are not identical, a small positive SST anomaly can be seen in the far west Pacific (130°–160° E, 0°–15° S—indicated by the red box) in all regimes.


That being the case, here are the SSTs for mid June, July and August 2010 from Unysis and NOAA. And for good measure the SSSTs (Sub Sea Surface Temps) from BoM [I only know where the 150m depth averaged temps are archived].



It looks hot to me - and in line with what I posted from TAO for 143°-156°E, 0-5°S.

I repeat - if the prediction was valid, we should have just had a doozy of a El Nino given that Regime 3 (2001-2011) would allow some coolish water north of Cape York. [And actually the 2011 SSTs look almost a match to this]



So when you say: "There will be NO El Nino in the DEC/JAN of 2013. Some 18months from now.." Will you bet the farm on that?

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2010.html
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/
http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml
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#1111300 - 26/06/2012 00:54 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: crikey]
marakai Offline
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An interesting read people and thanks for all the information and explanations/knowledge. I am curious as a complete layman on this issue what effect cloud coverage and or cyclonic cooling could have on the posited theory of this predictive warmpool overall or in fact vice versa. Please forgive if the terminology is wrong but could a seasonal cluster of cyclone activity causing upwelling etc along with cloud over this apparent predictive area have an effect on Elnino/Lanina genesis?

Also could cloud cover over the same area resulting from convergent wind patterns also have an effect?

Just on the face of it (to me who knows nothing) this theory seems prone to the chaos of local weather. Is the latent heat of the deeper ocean layers able to overcome the surface effects? If so how does this work as the body of water travels into or away from the shallow shelf waters in the posited area of effect?

I readily admit a very poor understanding and have only read a few recent pages so please excuse if this has been covered (just tell me where to look) but is it possible given the area concerned that there is some sort of transfer of latent ocean heat between the northern and southern hemisphere along deep equatorial currents that may account for the flip between Elnino Lanina ?

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#1111302 - 26/06/2012 01:19 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: marakai]
S .O. Offline
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As Arnost has indicated there is a misrepresentation in that BOM " rectangle scenarios . It literally talks of Sub Surface temps , then shows in those Six maps ,
3 each for both June/August & Sept/Nov . Each with a Nina , Neutral and Nino Example . The maps themselves actually indicate SURFACE temps ......

So they say Sub Surface SSST's and show SST's ....

Bill Thoughts ?

One thing it does show is a two small areas of contrast within that Rectangle , and they would be two indications . the first and most easily seen . Is the Upwelling off the SW coast of Irian Jaya . And a less distinctive Upwelling due East from the Tip of Cape York . Last year these were actively colder as i think Arnost is hinting at , and in which case they are hanging their Theory on a Full blown El Nino this year .

SO crikey you won't have to wait the full eighteen months , as i was busy watching this entire area and more so the ITF last Winter Spring .
I can assure you that this was the case ( strong upwellings in these areas' ) , and its probably no new news for the likes of Mike / Bill / Max , and Bob Tis' .

Unfortunately Max was the eminent " Bob Tisdale " Whisperer/chanellor in this Forum , and due to a certain Troll or two within these walls of our Forum , his wealth of Knowledge in this Area has been lost for the moment .

Of special mention is much of Bob's work where he ( and maybe others ) had connected such upwellings to the Positive IOD and its strong Upwellings off the
Javan and Sumatran coasts . Adding to this Further myself that the ITF is very much a responsible factor coupled with or forcing local atmospheric conditions which inturn signal the Ekman transport .
Last year was defintely Positive IOD , and hence we are looking at an El Nino of sorts this Summer ..... All very well in a " warmer PDO period " , but I'm of the opinion that this may not be the case once the cooler PDO period is in force .
More reading on all this Upwelling can be found in the IOD thread , and i might post / forward a few private discussion messages to whoever politely asks of a discussion on this very topic i had with ROM Early last Year .


Edited by Southern Oracle (26/06/2012 01:21)
Edit Reason: spelling/grammar
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#1111303 - 26/06/2012 01:39 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: S .O.]
S .O. Offline
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Interesting Topics that might be a little heavy . But Anything by Bob Tisdale would help understand an overall connection .

links

" Other papers from google scholar are ;

An important one from your angle and from a top source.

Effects of the Indonesian Throughflow on the Pacific and Indian Oceans

Vertical structure of Indonesian throughflow in a large-scale model.

Velocity structure and transport of the ...he Indian Ocean

I will have a good look at these myself for my own education.

Another one that should really go into the ENSO posts are from Bob Tisdale's "Climate Observations" blog

La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videos

Cheers

Max

Ooops sorry lost the links in the copy . will work it out tomoz and copy .


Edited by Southern Oracle (26/06/2012 01:40)
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#1111305 - 26/06/2012 01:51 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: S .O.]
S .O. Offline
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Okay here's one .

" http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0485(2002)032%3C1404%3AEOTITO%3E2.0.CO%3B2"
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#1111343 - 26/06/2012 10:52 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: CeeBee]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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When I make a mistake I admit it normally, CB. Actually I had read it, but thought that I has missed something important, but actually on reading a bit slower it was much like I thought it was, and re-inforces my view that most of us look at the sub-surface well ahead in that timeframe. I do anyway, it is not always a correct view as sometimes subsurface stagnates or weakens in it's move eastwards. I would not bet on it moving as is on an 18 months cycle expecially as solar has weakened making solar cycles weaker and more erratic.
Anyway, I will read it in full on your last post CB when I have time and get back.
And for the record, CB, I would say everyone here including you is guilty of skimming over articles and commenting on them without having a detailed read. "Let him who is without sin throw the first rock"...as the good Lord once said!
cheers

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#1111344 - 26/06/2012 10:58 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: bd bucketingdown]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Would not all of this had been better put in the ENSO thread for future reference guys?!

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#1111353 - 26/06/2012 11:49 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Bill Illis Offline
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I rely more on the Eastern Pacific upper ocean temperature anomalies than the Western upper ocean temperature anomalies (upper 300 metres) because it is much more closely related to the ENSO than the West Pacific.

The 18 month lead time idea using the West Pacific is not good enough but it does provide some predictive power (just don't bet your house on it).

One issue is that the data actually available for the West Pacific might extend too far into the central Pacific - 155W - to be truly reliable (but that is all that is available).

The East upper ocean temperature anomaly gives one at least one month lead time and the correlation is extremely high.

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/9035/ensovsweeutamay2012.png




Data is at:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/data/t300_west.dat

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

And one can view this animation of the cross-section of monthly temperature anomalies down to 1000 metres across the entire Pacific going back to 1979. Takes awhile to go through the whole thing but you should be able to see there is a flow from east to west at the surface and then from west to east in the subsurface at 200 metres.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/xz/movie.temp.0n.mon.gif

Be sure to read the Cromwell Current Wiki as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromwell_Current


In this picture, Coral reef is really the Galapagos islands while the currents depicted start and end at 140E where the continental shelf of New Guinea occurs.


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#1111735 - 28/06/2012 21:18 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: Bill Illis]
crikey Offline
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Firstly talking about SST's. I am out of my depth and will not purport to challenge the experts who study the Ocean temps often.
From what l can gather after reading that study again
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1600.html#/f1
that claims to predict El Nino's some 18months in advance
( notice they do not claim to predict la Ninas or neutral transitional periods)
It would seem from what l understand.. In Autumn of anywhere you can look to the sub surface temps of Nino region 4 which is located in that northern tip of QLD area to the equator and if the anomalies are warm in Autumn the warmth migrates slowly eastward until warm sst's are noted much later . I fact 18 months later l think they infer.
The warm anomalies off the coast of peru ( Northern south America) are then recognised as a sign of el Nino and the event unfolds with 'symptoms' typical of El nino with changes to trade winds and rainfall patterns.
From what Bill Illis has posted above it looks as this is nothing new as forum members have already noted this movement of warm SST's some 18 months before a full blown El Nino event..
THe author did note that the warming has tended to be more in central pacific since 2000 , which would give us a greater occurence of modiki El Nino's l believe..Technically not an el Nino. ?
As to its accuracy and confidence level ,l agree with Bill Illis and Arnost that the no of correct predictions could be significantly better.
I did note that the author made what appeared to be excuses as to why 3 El Nino years did not fit well into the expected pattern or result
He questioned how an El Nino is defined..and ther sems to be inherant difficulties in defining an El Nino.. Base one!!
and wrote rogue years off as ... 'aborted events'.. ?????
Its probably worth following but l would not bet my house on it..

I liked your graph and links you posted above Bill Ilis..

Might look at that tomorrow . Thanks

I particularly liked how the climate shift years are observed in both the graph Bill Illis posted above
( before 2000 and after 2000.. check out change )
and Nandini Ramesh
& Raghu Murtugudde research which incidentally
clearly shows changes in SST patterns initiated in climate shift mid 70's and in and around 2000.

I will have a go at putting that correlation together in the coming days..
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#1111749 - 28/06/2012 22:19 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: Bill Illis]
Arnost Offline
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Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
Hey Bill... Did you post the link to the equatorial undercurrent to see who would pick up om this?:

Quote:
... In non-El Niño years, the Cromwell current is forced to the surface by underwater volcanoes near the Galapagos islands. (This is called upwelling)...
. LOL

And Dan Walker wasn't referenced!
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1112109 - 30/06/2012 13:37 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: Arnost]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Post #989213 - 12/05/2011 21:05:

Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Shindell et al. (1998): “found that when using realistic solar forcing with calculated ozone response in a full troposphere/stratosphere model, an amplified ridge does emerge.”


The ridge being the sub-tropical-to-mid-latitudinal one (if I have understood correctly).

D. Rind et al. 1999:

Says that…“At low and subtropical latitudes the change in latitudinal [temperature] gradient affects precipitation.”

[] Added.

Underline Added.

Climate Variability, climate change and drought in eastern Australia
Note on Indian Ocean Dipole and sub-tropical ridge.

Edit:

Also see post (#1110958 - 23-06-2012 07:53 PM), by crikey in thread “Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.."


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (30/06/2012 13:42)

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#1112302 - 01/07/2012 16:23 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
What would be more encouraging in this debate/section of the forum?

This: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ninedots.svg

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#1113382 - 08/07/2012 00:03 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: Seira]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Came across some great animations of weather variables for the globe from 1971 to 2000
One should keep in mind this was a climate regime from mid 70's to 2000 which was largely a warming period with a pre-dispositiuon toward ENSO El Ninos,
l believe
I thought l might try to see if l could see a source of the predominat ,El Nino phase?
Here are the links for the pentad? means( they are not anomalies )

SST's
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/realtime/clim/annual/loop/sstloop.html

Sea level pressure ( MSLP)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/realtime/clim/annual/loop/slploop.html

850hpascal wind
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/realtime/clim/annual/loop/slploop.html

and they come from the index here
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/clim.table.html
-------------------
I decided to look at wind patterns and Barom surface pressure during the climate regime 1970's to late 1990's

I think l learnt that the Northern and southern hemisphere are vastly different in the way the atmospheric circulation patterns appear spatially placed over the globe
I was amazed at how different the MSLP patterns are to the text books that l have read , that show idealised atmosphere patterns..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulation



The text book version seemed far from reality to me except for the Southern hemisphere which does a little bit look more like the text book circulation pattern..
I was pretty gobsmacked really about theory versus reality..
check out the MSLP and wind patterns below ,for the globe for that period

I chose December and June for a reason
Because Dec is the peak of the SOI amplitude and l picked June because it is the ENSO transition period.

Both these months are also the winter and summer solstice
SOI oscillates with the axial tilt of the earth
the global season maker ..

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#1113496 - 08/07/2012 20:31 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: crikey]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
This might be of help relating dynamic pressure to air density and wind speed...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_pressure

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#1114249 - 11/07/2012 23:46 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: Seira]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thanks COSMIC.. re dynamic pressure
Yeh l should refresh some science knowledge. There's no escaping really..LOL
I read up a little on Bernoulli principle.. Memories.LOL

Had a quick look at AEROLOGY's site
tonight.. Gee a lot of thought and research has gone into that.!!

An enjoyable read aerology and yep the more l read ,the more intriguing this sort of research becomes

Long term forecasting.. diabolical. Not for the faint hearted.
I took a snap of your forecast for Australia for this christmas day 25th dec 2012 and looks like strong storms and rain around the QLD/ NSW border ( big event ..forecast)

I took a few notes re some of your cycle lengths for interest..
Even plotted some of your dates and times mentioned on a SOI and PDO graph produced by Cai and Rensch ( 2012)

Some tentative correaltion there but that doesn't mean anything as overlaying frequencies can alter the outcome
The overlay of so many frequencies and oscillations makes matters very complex.
Trying to identify each one and identify the strongest frequencies and correlate them to cycles like the PDO or SOI etc
Constructive and destructive interference can make correlations with weather dynamical variables difficult.

Anyway . This is what l noted.
Not sure the graph l selected best fits the cycles you are observing
cheers

So will it be an El Nino this December..2012? LOL





I admire what you are doing..
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#1114324 - 12/07/2012 11:45 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: crikey]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
After going back over much of the thread, these are a few posts I thought might be worth revisiting:

#958382 – 08-02-2011 04:48 PM:

Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Seasonality, Orbital Parameters and the Milankovitch Pacemaker

Combining eccentricity, obliquity and precession

Combining the effects of the eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles enabled Milankovitch to calculate the changes in solar radiation received at a given latitude through time back to 600,000 years ago. He found that the maximum change was equivalent to reducing the amount of summer radiation received today and 65 degrees to that received now over 550 km to the north at 77 degrees.
  • What might such change in insolation have done to the latitude of glacial limits around the North Atlantic?
  • Answer: It must have significantly reduced their latitude.
In fact, if there was a simple southward shift of ~600 km, this would bring the latitude of the glacial limits seen in mid Norway today at 65 degrees north (where glacier still exist) down to the latitude of Scotland. Of course, changing insolation may not have shifted the glacial limits in such a simplistic way, for they are controlled not only by latitude, but by climate, and in particular to direction of winds bringing weather systems that result in snowfall. But this simple ‘thought experiment’ shows how significant insolation changes caused by astronomical effects might be in changing the climate so that glaciers expand in the Northern Hemisphere.

Orbital and Climate Cycle – Figure 14.23

Curves comparing changes in carbon dioxide and methane with temperature changes based on oxygen-isotope values in samples from deep ice core drilled at Vostok Station, Antarctica. Concentrations of greenhouse gases were high during the early part of the last interglaciation, just as they are during the present interglaciation, but they were lower during glacial times. The curves are consistent with the hypothesis that the atmospheric concentration of these gases contributed to warm interglacial climates and cool glacial climates.

[Transcribed extract – Box 3.4]
Bold Added.

Interesting stuff.

Post #967685 – 01-03-2011 11:02 PM:

Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
This has been becoming increasingly relevant in the context of this thread smile :

As the Earth’s rate of rotation slows, by however much, energy is lost (or rather released) by the Earth-Moon System. This inertial energy has to go somewhere and I have some doubt about it simply being lost to space. That the angular momentum of the Earth-Moon system is steadily increasing as the rate of (Earth’s) rotation slows (a relative true secular braking due to tidal friction), this friction suggests processes occurring within the Earth’s climate system as directly affected.

The Earth, internally (geo-morphologically/geologically) and externally (atmospherically) is not a solid, rigid structure. It is comprised of plasma, and the vast majority of this structure (including the mantle and core of the Earth) is ionised. This fluidity, in fact any fluidity, is governed by the principals of geophysical fluid dynamics, and is subject to change by external fluid variations (the ionised solar wind for example).

In 1838, Carl Friedrich Gauss demonstrated 95% of Earth’s magnetic field is internal, and 5% is external. Earth’s magnetic field is sum of 3 parts [1]:
  • The main magnetic field, produced by electrical currents in outer core, steady on time scales of days, but variable over years (of approximately 50,000 nano-Teslas (nT)). This accounts for large regional variations in intensity and direction;
  • The external magnetic field, produced by electrical currents in ionosphere consisting of particles ionised by solar radiation (associated with the sunspot cycle), usually variable over hours, at tens of nT, occasionally variable over minutes, at hundreds of nT (e.g. magnetic storm);
  • Anomalous, induced magnetic field; magnetisation induced in crust by Main Field (and External Field) or remanent magnetisation (“permanently induced”).
Accounting for a phase-lag of approximately 2.9 degrees in the torque between motions of the Earth and Moon, much of this energy appears to be transferred to the angular movement of the Earth-Moon interaction [2], with the Earth-Moon distance increasing by approximately 4 mm/year (1820-1999) [3]. It is likely that this transfer of energy is having some impact on gravitational anomalies here on Earth.

In addition to the 2.9-degree tidal phase-lag, atmospheric patterns are affected through changes in density and the scale height of the atmosphere, as are ocean sea levels [2]. These effects are associated with gravitational anomalies across and below the surface of the Earth, for which NASA has attempted atmospheric-oceanic tidal modelling [4]. A world map associated with a representation of these anomalies (geoid undulations) relative to a reference ellipsoid of flattening f = 1/298.257 [5] (after Lerch et al. 1979) demonstrates the extent and variation in the Earth’s gravitational field.

From Lowrie. 2002:

“The largest negative undulation (-105 m) is in the Indian Ocean south if India, and the largest positive undulation (73 m) is in the Equatorial Pacific north of Australia. These large-scale features are too broad to be ascribed to shallow crustal or lithospheric mass anomalies. They are thought to be due to heterogeneities that extend deep into the lower mantle, but their origin is not yet understood.”

The negative anomaly is centred south of the tip of India, the positive on Papua New Guinea, and extends west-northwest to the Philippines, and east-southeast to be directly north of New Zealand’s North Island, at 30 degrees south. Another positive anomaly exists (48 m) southwest of South Africa at approximately 50 degrees south.

The similarities or associations of these anomalies with phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Nino Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) are notable.

[1]: http://gravmag.ou.edu/mag_earth/mag_earth.html
[2]: William Lowrie (2002), Fundamentals of Geophysics, pp. 40-41.
[3]: http://www.ridgenet.net/~do_while/sage/v5i5d.htm
[4]: http://aom.giss.nasa.gov/tides.html
[5]: William Lowrie (2002), Fundamentals of Geophysics, pp. 50-51.

Post #989319 – 13-05-2011 01:11 PM:

Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
The solar tidal effect is roughly 43-53% of the magnitude of the lunar tidal affect. Both contribute (the lunar more so) to gravitational influences on the prolate ellipsoid shape of the Earth. On either side of the Earth which is not directly in line with the Moon (normal to it) the effects of these tides is to increase gravitational attraction towards the Earth, as a counterpoise to reducing it when, say, tropical latitudes align with the centre of the Moon.

As the Earth’s response to lunar tides (the motion of the Moon around the Earth vs. the daily rotation of the Earth itself) is partially inelastic (meaning partially rigid) [1], when the Moon’s centre passes directly overhead at a given location on the Earth, the Earth’s fluidity does not respond immediately (the tidal bulge does not stay aligned with the centre of the Moon). There is a lag of around 2.9 Earth degrees in this response, which generates a torque (force) for that geographic location towards the centre of the Moon, 2.9 Earth degrees of rotation later. This lag or shift is constantly affecting the regions of the Earth where gravity is either reduced or increased.

A likely consequence of this is that the ocean currents (and not just those at the surface) have to constantly shift vertically (towards to Moon each time it crosses the sky) and horizontally (due to the torque on the tides in the prolate ellipsoid). This will generate mixing; however the extent of mixing (vertically) below the thermocline also depends on heating from below (magmatic/thermal vents, etc.) or changes in the mixed layer above (driven far more by solar input). The former we’re beginning to get a better idea of, the latter we have well-established knowledge for – inertial (kinetic) responses to changes in solar input, particularly evaporation (evaporation can be associated with mixing as deeper waters surface to replace the energy released into the atmosphere).

I would say that solar effects on ocean mixing are the more well-established and immediate. Lunar tidal torque is less understood so I’m not as certain, but the extent to which shore tides change seems to indicate something. It could just as easily be due to ocean expansion from internal events.

[1] W. Lowrie, 2002. Fundamentals of Geophysics, Cambridge, p. 41.

And lastly post #984209 – 15-04-2011 10:49 AM:

Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
http://www.electric-cosmos.org/introduction.htm

Modified to be Climate-Specific:

Quote:
The Empirical Scientific Method

Scientists are distinguishable from artists, poets, musicians, and others in that they use what is known as the 'scientific method'. It is not that 'inspiration' or 'the muse' is not valuable in science, it is - but it is not the starting point of what we call science. In the process called the scientific method a true scientist will:
  • Observe nature - carefully record what is seen.
  • Seek patterns in the observed data - put numbers on the data - fit equations to those numbers.
  • Generalize those equations into a word description of the process - this is a hypothesis.
  • Carry out experiments and/or gather independent data to see how well the hypothesis predicts future observations and results. This is called "closing the loop" on your hypothesis.
  • Reject, or modify the hypothesis if the experiments show it falls short of success in these predictions.
  • Only after the results of several experiments have been successfully predicted by the hypothesis, can it be called a theory. If two different theories predict a given phenomenon equally well, the simpler theory is probably the best one. This principle is called Occam's Razor.
Theories can never be proven to be correct - some other mechanism entirely may be the cause of the observed data. But theories can be disproved if they fail to predict the outcomes of additional experiments. Such theories are termed to be falsified. Sometimes the scientific method as described above is called the empirical method.

The Deductive Method

As an alternative to the empirical method, there is a method of deriving theories from assumed generalizations about the Earth's climate. This is called the deductive method. In this process one starts with a "law of nature" or "obviously correct" generalization about the "way things work" and deduces (reasons out - derives) its consequences in detail. A hypothesis arrived at via this method is promoted to the status of being a Theory if a large enough body of experts 'accept' it. Thus, in this method, a vote of the experts determines if a theory is correct. Once such a theory has been accepted it is not easily rejected in light of conflicting evidence; it is, however, often modified - made more complex - and, unfortunately, new data is often selectively chosen to support it. The selection and publication of only the data that support the accepted theory is expedited by the "peer review system". If the experts who have accepted a given theory control both the funding of future research and also what gets published, there is little chance for conflicting viewpoints to develop.

Pseudo Science

Some hypotheses, when presented by august, well established scientists, are given credence without anyone questioning whether the hypothesis has been developed using the scientific method. Yet in most cases it is not difficult to check whether or not the scientific method has been used correctly. For example, consider the hypothesis that "There are gnomes in my garden that always make themselves invisible when anyone tries to observe them." Clearly, no conceivable experiment or observation could falsify that statement. This is evidence the hypothesis comes from a pseudo-scientific source. Legitimate theories must be falsifiable.

Quote:
The Proper Role of Mathematics in Climate-Related Physics

Over time, assumptions about the how the climate behaves have been adorned with elegant, abstract, mathematical “models” consisting of equations concerning: mass, energy, momentum, etc. The solutions of these equations have led to pronouncements that the vast major of climate behaviour can be attributed to global warming, with the focus predominantly on carbon dioxide: direct evidence for which is not forthcoming, and that this warming is likely to be “catastrophic” unless we do something about it immediately, wherein all the relevant knowledge for such actions is said to be available…“at our finger tips”. Regardless of how elegant the mathematics is, if it is based on faulty assumptions, it is worthless.

The proper way to use mathematics in science is to “curve fit” a previously observed set of data. The principle of Occam’s Razor tells us that the simplest (lowest order) equation that best fits the data is the one that should be chosen. A straight-line can be passed exactly through two data points; a second order (quadratic) curve can be exactly passed through three data points…and so on. An n + 1 order equation can be made to pass exactly through n data points. Thus, if we have a complicated enough equation, (if we have enough coefficients to adjust and arbitrary constants whose values we can choose) we can fit just about any data – even new data. The question however, is can we find a reasonably simple low order model that fits a large number of points such that each time new data arrives, it fits nicely onto the curve without our vast modification of the coefficients in the equation?

If we have to add to the complexity of our model each time new data is received, this is strong evidence that the model is a poor one and we should re-examine our basic premises. An equation is only a model of the real world process. We should never lose sight of this distinction – even a real-world physically-based one. There is much potential for confusion when the line between reality and the model is blurred; so, if an equation contains a “singularity” (gives an output value of infinity for some value of the input variable(s)) it may be presumed the actual real world quantity must also become infinite.

Another limitation on any mathematical model (set of equations) is that it has a finite region of validity. For instance, if the model was developed using a set of input variables whose values ranged from zero to 1,000, then we cannot with any assurance use an input value of 1,000,000 and expect the answer given by the model to have any correspondence to reality. As an example, consider Newton’s Law of gravity. It seems to work correctly in describing the motions of falling bodies here on Earth. It precisely describes the requirements of placing satellites in orbit. It works in what we call the macroscopic range of human endeavour. But, when we get inside the nucleus of the atom, we find Newtonian mechanics to be hopelessly overpowered by what are called the strong and weak forces. Gravity does not seem to work in that very small “region of validity”.

I have some ideas which overlap with this thread, but aim to be posting them in the thread “Streamflow Observations” in the General Weather Section due to their specific, regional nature (if anyone is interested smile ).

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#1114401 - 12/07/2012 19:52 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: Seira]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thanks for pulling those posts out of your archives COSMIC
Hmm
so looks like as well as trying to correlate solar system variables . Also have to consider the magnetic field of the earth..
and they have found some correlations..so much to pull together and sort through

Personally l can't believe we cannot account fully for the changes in ENSO and accurately predict them by now..
We have hundreds and hundreds of research papers and heaps of technology on this topic

I am sick of reading this type of 'brick wall' self defeated ideology in every article l have ever read about ENSO.
"Unfortunately scientists don't know ""..blah blah.. when and how of ENSO

Must be solved by the end of the year!!....That is the deadline
All the information that is required to solve the riddle l suspect is already available

Another solar sun spot theory debunked and failed posted below
..Although l like john Dalys work generally
But as soon as we get into predicting outcomes..WELL

11. Forecasts of future ENSO events.. By JOHN DALY ( INCORRECT)

Precise forecasts that prove correct are the sharpest criterion of effective science.
So I will try my third long-range El Niño forecast. It goes nearly three years beyond the lead time of 12 months, discussed in the beginning. The next negative extremum in the SOI going along with an El Niño should occur around 2002.9 (± 6 months). The last zero phase of a small finger cycle fell at 1998.3. The following one will occur in 2005.8. The length of the SFC cycle reaches just 7.5 years. So the probability is low, though not zero, that the phase 0.382 within the SFC will release an El Niño around 2001.2. The following 0.618 phase falls at 2002.9. It should be effective. This all the more so as around this time the descending part of the sunspot cycle is expected to reach the phase 0.382. The next negative 0.236 phase within the small finger cycle will fall at 2000.1. The present positive SOI and the accompanying La Niña seem to be related to it.
So La Niña conditions should prevail till 2000.1 and beyond. (FAIL)
http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/sun-enso.htm
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1116009 - 22/07/2012 15:29 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: crikey]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I wish to change a view: I would like to consider "AGW theory" to be a premise or argument, one of many.

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#1116106 - 23/07/2012 12:45 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: crikey
Thanks for pulling those posts out of your archives COSMIC
Hmm
so looks like as well as trying to correlate solar system variables . Also have to consider the magnetic field of the earth..
and they have found some correlations..so much to pull together and sort through
[…]
Must be solved by the end of the year!!....That is the deadline
All the information that is required to solve the riddle l suspect is already available

[] Added.

My opinion is the greenhouse effect fundamentally depends on the conversion of light reaching the surface/lower atmosphere to heat (infrared).The climatic response to changes in the greenhouse effect appears to depend (in part) on the input-output at the atmosphere-space interface (mesopause).

Thoughts to ponder smile .

[I can expand on this in a PM if you like smile ]

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#1118258 - 05/08/2012 23:20 Re: Developing an Understanding of the Earth’s Climate System [Re: Seira]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
I always used to believe that global SST spatial patterns were random.
After noting this curious pattern. I think l will have second thoughts
I recognize the characteristic horse shoe shape in the North Atlantic ocean,
( top left horse shoe in diagram below)
which signifies the negative phase of the PDO ( pacific decadal oscillation)

However there are 2 to 3 other cold ,horse shoe shapes in june 2012 sst dot map.

Also the warmest anomalies as seen by the largest dots are mostly over nth hemisphere land masses ( not surprising)
The northern hemisphere significantly warmer than the sth hemisphere in June 2012

Australia has been cold lately and is located within one of those cold horseshoes.!! LOL..

Quite cute but significant also

Notice the horse shoe shape is always a cold anomaly?( as shown by the blue dots)

Gee. The more you delve into this climate business, the more patterns and symmetry you come across.

(Re post above:Would love to read your viewpoints COSMIC.!!
But why pm them? I am sure many here would love to read your views..
go ahead)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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