EC's equatorial cross-section SST anomaly analysis from last month shows a small area of near-surface cool anomalies. Its SST anomaly forecast map for Aug-Sep-Oct also shows a very small area just off the equatorial South American coast where warm anomalies are absent as well as some cool anomalies further south off the west coast:

Sorry Ken, I did not read it all properly and see that you related it to ENSO, but yes, I meant AGW also especially, I agree wholeheartedly!

Solid post Ken, peoples perceptions of Chaos theory are often formed by pop culture or tv shows. Its a far more legitimate area of research than it is given credit for IMO.

But i digress, and have I agree with BD. Definately an interesting subject area but not for here i guess. Might start a thread in a couple of days once i find the time to write down some thoughts.

I remember doing a uni project on the QBO going back some years but that was about its effects on hurricane frequency in the northern hemisphere (via effects on deep layer shear).

As for ENSO, I think it's important not to get too caught up in the day to day (or similar timescales) fluctuations in ENSO indicators. Firstly, we haven't even reached the end of winter yet so it's still early days. Secondly, large but temporary fluctuations in indicators like the SOI, SST anomalies, etc happen all the time. It's a bit like experiencing a week or two of hotter & drier than normal weather in late spring then assuming the whole summer will be like that. It's when these fluctuations become strongly sustained over a period of months that indicates a true ENSO phase. Thirdly, there's also the temptation to fixate on only the SST anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region. The ones further west in NINO 4 are also an important indicator.

Indeed, I actually made a post about this back in April as well:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1101944#Post1101944

i.e. since earlier this year, many forecast members of the EC ensemble (and other models) have been suggesting the warming of SST's in the eastern NINO regions to peak early (late winter) before confidence drops off dramatically... while those further west around the NINO 4 region to continue warming & peak later (after around late spring/early summer) with much higher confidence. The below plume forecasts from the runs of EC back in March show that's pretty much what's happened so far (actual = the single blue dashed line):

NINO 3 SST anomalies:




NINO 4 SST anomalies:

Whilst that was true when we started our guessing comp (sorry must update), the models went gung ho Nino about a month later:

And a snapshot of the models from early March:

Of that four, JMA was gung-ho but you can see the general spread for CFS & GMAO was more modest for late winter then started to spread/plateau out indicating greater uncertainty and/or easing of the warming rate in this region... while there's been much higher confidence in models for continued warming of NINO 4 SST anomalies... which is how it's played out overall so far. As for EC, the plume forecast ends by Aug (as opposed to mid/late spring for GMAO & CFS) so it's hard to tell from the Feb runs whether it was going to ease that warming immediately after. About half the members reverse & start coming back down towards the end. Also, if you look at its April runs you posted, you can see from the sheer spreading apart of the members that strongly warm SST anomalies in NINO 3.4 had high uncertainty. Even though many members keep going up, many others reverse & come back down. Of course this type of significant spreading apart of members indicating higher uncertainty applies to all weather setups as well as those on seasonal & climatic timescales.

In a nutshell, for eastern NINO regions, the spread within individual model ensembles as well as among the models in the forecasts since earlier this year as well as the easing of warming in some, have indicated to me higher uncertainty and/or an early modest peak... while for NINO 4, the much narrower spread for continued warming (and a later peak) have indicated much higher probabilities for this in this region.

Re: Mike (SBT's) post of pacific sst anomaly animation
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif

Agreed it is quite evident that a cold pool is working its way up the sth american coastline. But also a warm anomaly is continuing to stream in from the gulf of mexico?
There have been some very hot temps in the US of late and the easterly wind stream could be directing that atmospheric warmth at around 10deg N across the pacific
The wind streams across the equatorial belt are looking the same as last month . Persistent easterly stream.

Also don't forget the sun is making its way back toward the southern hemisphere and should contribute to warming?

There have been cold anomalies within the high latitude belt in the sth hemisphere this winter . However spring and warmer temps are getting closer every week

A snap taken and linked here
http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/5210/july2012pacificsstanoma.jpg

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Thanks BD for that link re the QBO. Absolutely fascinating !! article
I think l learnt we are in the east phase of the QBO as easterly 200hpascal upper winds curently prevail over the equator

I like the link they have found with the NAO and the SAM phases and arctic vortex strength, and stratospheric temp anomalies .. bonza!

wonder how the QBO phase relates to ENSO.

Does an easterly upper 200 hpascal windstream ( easterly QBO phase) encourage an El Nino event?

Gulf of Mexico ....?
I presume you are talking of atmospheric exchange .

I think you may find that the oceans actually lag the atmosphere in Peak heat / cool points in the seasonal shift . And some places will lag much longer than others owing to significant delayed Ekman transport and combined with Surface currents . And each and every bathymetry / coastline will have its idiosyncracies .

There is also the struggle between " the easterlies " crikey mentioned above and a constant coastward push of cross coastal currents from consistant SSW swell actions . So many of the Travelling/moving discrepancies are quite finite . An extremely large long range swell is carrying up the West coast of Sth Am. as i type ..... Along with what i would describe as a late onset of Zonal westerly ( roaring fourties ) gales . If the SAM/AAO is going to give off a few more strong signals going forward into Spring then this would continue for atleast another 2 mths . And depending on some zonal ( longitudal ) regularity of the LWT going forward then it could hold till atleast Nov.

Nino 3.4 was just over 0.8C last week.

The equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Temperature Anomaly might have peaked already. The cross-section animations are also pointing in this direction.

This chart leads Nino 3.4 by about 1 month.

http://s9.postimage.org/l2p7ce3y7/EPUOTA_Aug132012.png

Just from the SSTs it looks to have peaked. That is from my (very) untrained eye. Now just hoping that the Indian ocean quits cooling on the NW coast .

The Indian ocean cooling is mostly surface, the subsurface is quite warm, expect this to rapidly disappear in the next 6 weeks. Still think we are going to see a summer like 2010/11 across the whole country, with widespread flooding and very high rainfall.

If you look at Unisys you can see the cold PDO go to work.Not only is the warmth being eridicated slightly, its cooling from the north ever so slowly as the undercurrents from the North equatorial currents get even colder near the USA. Coupled with the cooling from the SA upwelling, its being attacked from both sides. And just recently, two subsurface cold pools have emerged along the equator, so im doubtful its going to stay warm neutral. Every day the oceans are starting to couple the wrong way with the atmosphere, so its going to cool, how much is anyones guess. the only way it will warm anymore is we get s a strong WWB or Kelvin Wave and i see neither.

The MJO and WWB as I have said imo are a result of what is in the Pacificn Ocean SST wise and cannot start or finish anything without the SST structure being favourable for that.......At the moment the MJO is almost non-existant! That says something to me, anyway!

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.ENSO/.SST_Plots/Weekly_Loop.html

The weekly anomaly loop tells an interesting tale that shows definite cooling in the equatorial waters off Peru in recent weeks, which I think confirms the general feeling that the models gunning for an El Nino are out of kilter.

The BOM are still on the El Nino wagon!

" By Colin Packham

SYDNEY | Tue Aug 14, 2012 5:55pm EDT

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's weather bureau said on Tuesday there were clear signs El Nino was developing in the eastern Pacific, raising concerns over the potential impact of the weather event on agriculture at time of soaring global food prices.

El Nino is a periodic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and its arrival comes as fears grow about food prices. Severe drought in the United States has withered the corn crop, sending prices up 60 percent in two months. Soy prices have also jumped after drought in South America.

The weather pattern is normally associated with drier conditions on the east coast of Australia, potentially damaging important export crops such as wheat, which is heavily reliant on rains during the spring to summer period to boost yields.

Australian wheat production is forecast to dip this year from the record 2011/12 season and dry weather across Western Australia has seen forecasts downgraded in recent weeks.

While El Nino poses a risk to east coast production, this may be partly offset in New South Wales state, where Australia's premier grade wheat is grown, by good rains in recent months.

"In New South Wales, the soil moisture going into May was exceptional because of the summer rain, and while there has been some frost, there some areas of New South Wales which don't need another drink," said Andrew Woodhouse, an analyst at brokerage Advance Trading Australasia.

South Australia's wheat crop could face a bigger risk from the drier weather associated with El Nino.

"I have downgraded my South Australia wheat forecast by nearly a million tons to 2.86 million tons," Woodhouse said, who sees overall wheat output at 22.56 million tons in the current crop year. Australia is forecast to be the world's second-biggest wheat exporter again this year.

EL NINO INTENSITY AND DURATION

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said although El Nino development stalled in the second half of July, "over the past fortnight indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (a gauge of atmospheric pressure) and trade wind strength have shown renewed trends that are consistent with the early stages of an El Nino event."

Japan's weather bureau said on Friday the weather pattern was underway.

However, the Australian weather bureau said it was being "conservative", stressing that its outlook was consistent with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and not at odds"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/14/us-weather-elnino-australia-idUSBRE87D12620120814

Is there a correlation between stratospheric temperature along the equator and ENSO?
We often look to the sea for predictions but what about the the upper atmosphere?


In 1982/1983 ( a strong El nino) The 70mb temps were persistently and strongly in the max upper range

and in 2010/2012( strong La Nina)the 70mb temps were persistently below the mean

1982/1983 upper 70mb temps



2011/2012 upper 70mb temps



source
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/

Wondered what the 2012 70mb anomalies were indicating/
Found this but not sure if it is equatorial band?

10n ..10s?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/st...JAS_EQ_2012.gif
If the map l have chosen is correct the 70mb equatorial atmosphere current anomaly is just a little cooler than the mean. ( close to neutral)

That would make a weak /neutral/Nina event for this ENSO season? ( based on the stratospheric anomalies along the equatorial 70mb stratosphere.
Just a point for consideration?

( Interesting point Note : June/July are the warmest months for global temps )
so why is upper 70mb air warmest across the equatorial belt, when the suns zenith is in the northern hemisphere?
The sun crosses the equator in which month?

Sounds interesting, but I would be interested to see how your hypothesis matches up with other ENSO events and not just the small sample selected, as there is every chance that any appearance of a correlation is an isolated coincidence. More data and analysis needed.

If I were looking into this as a serious hypothesis, I would take a substantial temporal sequence of the 70mb data, say from 1970-2010, for example, and plot significant departures from the average for any given year, and then do a statistical analysis to see if there are any correlations with the ENSO indicators for the same period. If there was a correlation, I would use this to develop a 'forecasting tool' and use this to 'hindcast' to check the theory against known data. Once I had run the hindcasting process at least 10 times, I would consider the success of the procedure, which I could then a) discard if it doesn't work, b) refine if it seems that there is some success, or b) go public with my brilliant findings.

Based on a quick trawl through the data, I would be continuing to look at a possible 6-8 month lag between stratospheric anomalies and any reflection in the ENSO data (ie. when the 70mb temp is above average, there appears at first glance to be an El Nino developing 6-8 months later, and below average temps followed by La Nina in the same time frame - obviously this is not based on solid analysis, just initial obs).

Funny you mention that crikey, a few weeks before you made that post about stratospheric winds, I actually happened to be looking back through archived wind analyses at the 10hpa level for various El-Nino's and La-Nina's and seeing if there was any useful correlation between ENSO events & shifts in the easterly/westerly wind regime over the equator at that height as a precursor to ENSO events. After what seemed like a possible correlation, it broke down for various events including the 2009 El-Nino.