Listened to a talk back phone call on ABC radio today from Manilla in the Philippines
The aide worker was saying the heavy rain in such a short time period has created some 3 feet of flooding over 80% of the city of manilla.
Here is a current news article. and the OZzie govt has donated $2 million for assistance
They have had 2 weeks of monsoon rains compounded by typhoon Saola
The forecast apparently , is for more rain

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-09/an-philippines-flood-update-thurs-pm/4188350

Models are suggesting yet another tropical storm may develop & intensify NE of the Philipines by early next week with reasonably low shear & warm SST's, before drifting northwest towards SE China.

Below is a forecast map with the probabilities of >34kt sustained winds during the next 7 days from the GFS ensemble:

The rain in the Philippines has been compounded by the outflow from Typhoon Haikui which made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China on Tuesday morning.

The footage I have seen for the flooding in the Philippines is disturbing

JMA details for Mon 13/08 at 5pm PHT / CST and 7pm AEST

More torrential rainfall forecast for the Philippines.
Possible landfall in southern Taiwan
Eventually the system will make landfall in Guangdong Province, China

TS 1213 (KAI-TAK)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 13 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°30'(16.5°) E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SW330km(180NM) NE280km(150NM)

Ensembles suggesting the chance of yet another tropical disturbance forming near the Philipines next week before drifting poleward. Below is the output from the GFS ensemble for next week:

JMA update for Wed 15/08 from 5am PHT / CST and 7am AEST
Landfall occurring in the Northern Philippines
Possible typhoon strike for Hong Kong on Friday

JMA link:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1213c.html

TS 1213 (KAI-TAK)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 14 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°35'(17.6°) E123°05'(123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

JMA update from Wed 15/8 at 7pm AEST and 5pm PHT/CST
Worsening flooding in Northern Luzon, Philippines. At least another 3 people killed.
Threat to Hong Kong with signal no 1 imminent from HKO

JMA link: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1213c.html

TS 1213 (KAI-TAK)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 15 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°55'(18.9°) E120°00'(120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

Edit: HKO Link
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 20:15 HKT 15/Aug/2012

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 was issued at 8:10 p.m.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about 800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak has intensified into a severe tropical storm.

At 8 p.m., Kai-tak was estimated to be about 710 kilometres east-southeast of Hong Kong (near 18.9 degrees north 119.9 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 18 kilometres per hour across the northern part of the South China Sea.

According to the present forecast track, Kai-tak will remain at some distance from Hong Kong overnight and local winds will not strengthen significantly. The chance of issuing Strong Wind Signal, No.3 overnight is not high. Kai-tak will edge closer to the South China Coast tomorrow. Weather in Hong Kong will then become cloudy with squally showers and strengthening winds. The Observatory will consider issuing the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 during the day tomorrow.

Some precautions against damage should be taken now. Gutters and drains should be cleared of obstructions. Hinges, bolts, locks and shutters of windows and doors should be checked.

Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory's web site for information on the tropical cyclone.

Since there will be swells, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 1 Signal)

1. All small vessels including low power vessels and fishing vessels in open sea should seek shelter as soon as possible. Please take any precautions necessary for small vessels and secure them properly with moorings.

2. Those who have definite duties during a tropical cyclone should now remain on call or contact their control centres from time to time.

3. If you are planning to visit Guangdong, Macau, any of the off-shore islands or remote parts of Hong Kong, you are reminded that changes in weather may affect your plans.

JMA update from Thu 16/8 at 5am CST and 7am AEST
The forecast trajectory seems to be shifting further west on each update
Landfall now appears likely in western Guangdong

STS 1213 (KAI-TAK)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 15 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°50'(18.8°) E117°30'(117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

Link to HKO - http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm
Link to JMA - http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1213c.html

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 20:45 HKT 16/Aug/2012

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62 kilometres per hour are expected.

At 9 p.m., Typhoon Kai-tak was estimated to be about 280 kilometres south of Hong Kong (near 19.8 degrees north 114.2 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 25 kilometres per hour in the general direction of the coast of western Guangdong.

During the past few hours, Typhoon KaiTak showed signs of intensification. With Kai-Tak coming closer to Hong Kong, winds are generally strong over Hong Kong with occasional gales over offshore areas and on high ground. According to the present forecast track, Kai-Tak is expected to come closest to Hong Kong tonight and tomorrow morning. Local winds will strengthen further overnight. The Observatory is expected to issue the Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. 8 at or before 10:15 p.m.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island were 79 and 72 kilometres per hour respectively.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 3 Signal)

1. Since seas are very rough and there are swells , you are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

2. Storm water drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish, this applies particularly to dwellers in low-lying areas.

3. People should avoid walking or working in areas exposed to gales and squalls. Drivers using highways and flyovers should be alert to violent gusts.

4. Fishing vessels not yet in typhoon shelters should seek shelter without delay. Check again that all deck fittings are firmly fastened. If available, heavy anchors should be prepared and used in addition to regular anchors.

5. Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory's web site for information on the tropical cyclone.

JMA update for Thu 16/8 at 10pm AEST / 8pm CST

STS 1213 (KAI-TAK)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 16 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°30'(19.5°) E114°20'(114.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

JMA update for Fri 17/8 at 7pm AEST / 5pm CST
Landfall has occurred near Zhanjiang, Guangzhou.
Typhoon Kai-Tak is moving inland into Guangxi Province, China and northern Vietnam

STS 1213 (KAI-TAK)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 17 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°20'(21.3°) E108°50'(108.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

Typhoon Kai-Tak hit Hanoi, Vietnam (central pressure was 985HPa) and caused some damage. Friends have advised me that many trees were uprooted and at least 5 people were killed. Then the system moved further inland and weakened to a tropical depression.

JMA update for Sun 19/8 at 10pm AEST / 8pm PHT and CST
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1214c.html

TS 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 19 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°35'(17.6°) E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

Looks like this region just can't cop a break. There's a potentially nasty situation developing later this week/early next week with Tembin likely to intensify a bit further & hit Taiwan and/or SE China... & yet another system further east of the Philipines possibly intensifying to a severe system before drifting WNW and hitting Taiwan and/or SE China as well. If this happens, it'll be a nasty one-two punch.

EC wind forecast field in knots (sustained) for 03z this Thu:




EC wind forecast field for 18z next Sun:

JMA update from Mon 20/08 at 4pm AEST / 2pm PHT and CST
Typhoon Tembin rapidly INTENSIFYING (now at 960HPa) with landfall of 940HPa.
System diameter is 660km. Depending on how much this intensifies, we could later see all of Taiwan inside the destructive core (this happened during Morakot 2009)

JMA link - http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1214c.html
This system is dangerous - it will be the most intense system so far for 2012

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 20 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°25'(18.4°) E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

Some more on TC TEMBIN....
TC path travels through populated regions. 6.3 million people in a CAT 3 and 4 situation
21.7 million people in a CAT 1 situation
Red alert for wind impact in China

http://www.gdacs.org/Cyclones/report.aspx?eventid=31997&episodeid=6&eventtype=TC

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a high humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecast
path.
http://www.gdacs.org/Cyclones/report.aspx?eventid=31997&episodeid=6&eventtype=TC

http://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?eventtype=TC&eventid=31997




8/20/2012 6:00:00 AM Category 2 175 km/h (109 mph) 212 km/h (132 mph)

8/20/2012 6:00:00 PM Category 3 195 km/h (121 mph) 241 km/h (150 mph)

8/21/2012 6:00:00 AM Category 4 212 km/h (132 mph) 259 km/h (161 mph)

8/21/2012 6:00:00 PM Category 4 222 km/h (138 mph) 269 km/h (166 mph)

6 RED ALERT
8/22/2012 6:00:00 AM Category 4 222 km/h (138 mph) 269 km/h (166 mph)
1.6 million people
position latitude /longitude 123.6, 22.6
6 RED ALERT
8/23/2012 6:00:00 AM Category 3 195 km/h (121 mph) 241 km/h (150 mph)
4.7 million people
Position: 120.9, 23.3

-----

Here is sat pic from s/east Asia courtesy of MET office
A nest of TC activity atm..
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/asia_IR.html

NASA visible imagery:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=78899

JMA update from Tue 21/8 at 7am AEST / 5am CST
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1214c.html

Forecast to intensify to Super Typhoon at landfall - this system is extremely dangerous!

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 20 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N19°55'(19.9°) E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

JMA update from Tue 21/8 at 10pm AEST / 8pm CST

Typhoon Tembin weakens slightly and is no longer forecast to intensify to a super typhoon
Typhoon Bolaven quickly intensifying and is now forecast to intensify to a super typhoon
(It appears that Bolaven is the larger system and is interfering with Tembin)

Both systems are a threat to Taiwan and/or China

JMA links:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1214c.html
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1215c.html

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 21 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N22°00'(22.0°) E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL300km(160NM)

TY 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 21 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°55'(18.9°) E140°10'(140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

JMA update from Wed 22/8 at 10am AEST / 8am CST
JMA links
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1214.html
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1215.html

Overnight Typhoon Tembin significantly WEAKENED and is now category 2
Hopefully Typhoon Tembin does not cause too many problems in Taiwan.

Complex interaction is occurring between the two typhoons and Bolaven is rapidly INTENSIFYING
Typhoon Bolaven will curve NE and will eventually make landfall in eastern China, southern Japan or the Korean Peninsula

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 22 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°25'(22.4°) E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE280km(150NM) SW220km(120NM)

TY 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 22 August 2012

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°10'(19.2°) E138°50'(138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)