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#1125546 - 07/09/2012 22:45 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Tom1234]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Originally Posted By: Enrique
whereas the warming after 1975 was dominated by man-made greenhouse gases (Fig. 4C). The cooling during the mid-century was consistent with a combination of natural volcanic and man-made aerosols (Nagashima et al. 2006).

The results of this study implicate the enhanced greenhouse effect as the dominant cause of global warming over the past three decades. If not for the temporary cooling between 1940 and 1975 from volcanic and man-made aerosol emissions, the earth might be even warmer than it is today (Mitchell et al. 2001).

The cooling effect of man-made sulfates also helps explain the hemispheric asymmetry in temperature history. Most industrial activity is in the northern hemisphere, so most of the anthropogenic sulfate cooling should be there too.

Regarding aerosols:

If the cause is assumed to be aerosols, also please explain the separate trends observed in the northern and southern hemispheres and compare with climate models.

Btw - I don't have '(Fig. 4C).'
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#1125556 - 08/09/2012 02:33 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: snafu]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2649

Flat Earth Society weighs in on NIWA High Court Case

On the Occasion of the Lords’ Good Endeavours to Strike Down
the temperature muddlings of the Dark Lords of the National
Institution of Water and Atmosphere in the High Court of our
Land

Hear Ye Honorable and Esteemed Lords of Middle Earth
We of the Flat Earth Society would like to extend to you a hand of
friendship and solidarity.

For too long charlatans have used the black magic of peer-reviewed
science to hide truthes from the public. They have falsified moon
landings, spread the lie of global warming, and most dastardly of all,
they say the earth is round! We at the Flat Earth Society have had
centuries of experience in dealing with such fabrications.

At last, we have found another, like-minded group of lonely souls such
as the Climate Science Education Trust who are bravely fighting the
wave of charlatan science.

We, too, have diagrams that explain our cause
The Flat Earth Society and the Lords of the Climate Science Education
Trust share common cause and concern in the threatening face of
scientific research.

Like you, we have been downtrodden by an extraordinarily complex
conspiracy of governments who have bludgeoned us with their
scientific evidence.

We, too, have suffered the Dark Arts of Peer Review - and publication
in the Devil’s Papers such as Nature and Science. Like NASA and
other institutions before them, petulant rubes like NIWA have
falsified records of temperatures around Middle Earth to show that
our world is warming.

We are horrified at the recent, similar episodes in the United States of
America where there is much talk of temperature records being
broken across the States – and it seems the entire Earth has been taken
in by this nonsense.

We must also note that there is another large force in the background
called Google Earth, that ignores the existence of the Ice Wall and the
Great Turtles that support our Earth. We would seek help to combat
this Great Travesty of Modernity. Perhaps the pieces of gold that you
have found to help your case could be shared with us?

We wish you luck in your endeavours this week

grin
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#1125557 - 08/09/2012 02:39 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2649

CRANKS LOSE COURT CASE AGAINST NZ TEMPERATURE RECORD, NIWA AWARDED COSTS

The attempt by NZ’s merry little band of climate cranks to have the NZ temperature record declared invalid has ended in ignominious defeat. In his ruling, handed down today, Justice Venning finds:

The plaintiff does not succeed on any of its challenges to the three decisions of NIWA in issue. The application for judicial review is dismissed and judgment entered for the defendant. [and] The defendant is entitled to costs.

It will be interesting to see whether the NZ Climate Science Education Trust, which was established purely to bring this action, is able to stump up to cover NIWA’s costs. If it doesn’t, the NZ taxpayer will be left to pick up the bill for this absurd bit of political grandstanding by the Climate “Science” Coalition.

In his decision, Justive Venning makes a number of interesting points, noting in paragraph 48:

This Court should not seek to determine or resolve scientific questions demanding the evaluation of contentious expert opinion.

Embarrassingly for the CSET, the judge also finds that two of its “experts” were nothing of the sort, declaring large chunks of their “evidence” inadmissible. Here’s the judge on former journalist Terry Dunleavy [par 51]

Section 25 could only apply if Mr Dunleavy was an expert in the particular area of the science of meteorology and/or climate. He is not. He has no applicable qualifications. His interest in the area does not sufficiently qualify him as an expert. I also accept Mr Smith’s further point that Mr Dunleavy’s views are not capable of offering substantial help to this Court on the issue that it has to determine. To that extent I agree that substantial passages of Mr Dunleavy’s evidence are inadmissible.

And in par 53, referring to the CSET’s stats man:

Similar issues (as to the limited nature of his expertise), apply to the evidence of Mr Dedekind.

[54]… Mr Dedekind’s general expertise in basic statistical techniques does not extend to any particular specialised experience or qualifications in the specific field of applying statistical techniques in the field of climate science. To that extent, where Mr Dedekind purports to comment or give opinions as to NIWA’s application of statistical techniques in those fields, his evidence is of little assistance to the Court.

The judge also noted that the other expert witness relied on by the NZ CSET, Bob Carter, also made a number of mistakes in his evidence. Not a good look…

I did have to laugh out loud at one point (not something that often happens when reading a judgement), when reading the judge’s comments on the original NZ CSET submissions:

Both the original statement of claim and the first amended statement of claim were prolix.

One wonders who brought a shine to those words…

http://hot-topic.co.nz/cranks-lose-court-case-against-nz-temperature-record-niwa-awarded-costs/
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#1125558 - 08/09/2012 03:26 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Locke]
GDL Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2008
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowen Mountain NSW
Alexia, I was refering to young annoying self confessed trolls. ................GDL

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#1125559 - 08/09/2012 04:12 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: GDL]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2649


Arctic ice melting at 'amazing' speed, scientists find

Scientists in the Arctic are warning that this summer's record-breaking melt is part of an accelerating trend with profound implications.

Norwegian researchers report that the sea ice is becoming significantly thinner and more vulnerable.

Last month, the annual thaw of the region's floating ice reached the lowest level since satellite monitoring began, more than 30 years ago.

It is thought the scale of the decline may even affect Europe's weather.

The melt is set to continue for at least another week - the peak is usually reached in mid-September - while temperatures here remain above freezing.

'Unprecedented'
The Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) is at the forefront of Arctic research and its international director, Kim Holmen, told the BBC that the speed of the melting was faster than expected.

"It is a greater change than we could even imagine 20 years ago, even 10 years ago," Dr Holmen said.


"And it has taken us by surprise and we must adjust our understanding of the system and we must adjust our science and we must adjust our feelings for the nature around us."

The institute has been deploying its icebreaker, Lance, to research conditions between Svalbard and Greenland - the main route through which ice flows out of the Arctic Ocean.

During a visit to the port, one of the scientists involved, Dr Edmond Hansen, told me he was "amazed" at the size and speed of this year's melt.

"As a scientist, I know that this is unprecedented in at least as much as 1,500 years. It is truly amazing - it is a huge dramatic change in the system," Dr Hansen said.

"This is not some short-lived phenomenon - this is an ongoing trend. You lose more and more ice and it is accelerating - you can just look at the graphs, the observations, and you can see what's happening."




read full article
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#1125567 - 08/09/2012 07:21 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: snafu]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
Originally Posted By: snafu
I'm breaking out the popcorn.

Within hours of 'that' email being sent, this was published on the BBC website.

And?

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#1125569 - 08/09/2012 07:36 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: snafu]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: snafu


If the cause is assumed to be aerosols, also please explain the separate trends observed in the northern and southern hemispheres and compare with climate models.




an analysis of long-period historical surface temperature records over the Indian subcontinent has for the first time provided observational evidence for surface cooling due to absorbing aerosols, in the dry season, by as much as 0.3C
during the last three decades. The seasonally asymmetric cooling which manifests during the dry months of (Jan–May) is consistent with the seasonal nature of aerosol forcing over South Asia.


Evidence of surface cooling from absorbing aerosols
R. Krishnan1 and V. Ramanathan

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#1125573 - 08/09/2012 08:00 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: __PG__]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
There are two important points from the New Zealand judgement. The first point is that in a democracy, the court of law doesn't interfere with scientific research conducted by public research organisations related to issues of public health.
Originally Posted By: NZ High Court

It is well established that the Court, in considering an application for judicial review, will be cautious about interfering with decisions made by a specialist body acting within its own sphere of expertise. In Lab Tests Auckland Ltd v Auckland District Health Board Arnold and Ellen France JJ in the Court of Appeal considered the Court was not well placed on a judicial review application: to assess ... the medical, economic and other complexities raised by an evaluation process such as that undertaken in the present case.

[42] In Z v Dental Complaints Assessment Committee the Supreme Court accepted that the fact that lawfulness “turn[ed] on expert judgment” suggested that a less searching review was appropriate.19

There is a further point. At times the witnesses have identified a difference of opinion about scientific methods applicable to climatology. There are a number of examples where the Court stated its reluctance to adjudicate on matters of scientific debate. In SmithKline Beecham (New Zealand) Ltd v Minister of Health Ronald Young J said:

"This Court’s function is not to rule on the science. The important point is that Medsafe, MAAC and Dr Boyd have considered all the Plaintiffs’ scientific propositions and have a credible view of the science by relevantly qualified scientists. They have considered and rejected on scientific grounds the Plaintiffs’ views on safety and efficacy and related matters."

[47] Unless the decision maker has followed a clearly improper process, the Court will be reluctant to adjudicate on matters of science and substitute its own inexpert view of the science if there is a tenable expert opinion: R (Campaign to End All Animal Experiments) v Secretary of State for the Home Department, Mothers Against Genetic Engineering Inc v Minister for the Environment.

[48] I consider that unless the Trust can point to some defect in NIWA’s decision-making process or show that the decision was clearly wrong in principle or in law, this Court will not intervene. This Court should not seek to determine or resolve scientific questions demanding the evaluation of contentious expert opinion.


The second point is that highlights what an inventive cynical liar Bob Carter is. He attempted to criticise the work of NIWA for not following the procedures as defined in the peer-review literature.
Originally Posted By: New Zealand High Court

In Dr Carter’s opinion, RS93 is the definitive paper for statistical adjustments to offset the effects of site changes in New Zealand conditions. It is implicit in his evidence that failure to apply that is a failure to comply with recognised scientific opinion.

Originally Posted By: Bob Carter during the trial

Applied science in any field must take into account the current state of knowledge as attested by the peer-reviewed literature. Any departures from established knowledge or authority must be noted and explained. If one disagrees with the established literature, then the remedy is to write a critical paper with full reasoning and have it published in a suitable journal.


The court also found that much of the evidence that Carter submitted was in error.
Example A : Bob Carter can't calculate a percentage.
Originally Posted By: New Zealand high court

The Trust’s argument that NIWA was mistaken in explaining the systematic migration of weather stations from warmer sites to cooler ones as the reason justifying an upward trend in the series is based on Dr Carter’s evidence. The pleading alleges nine out of 10 adjustments favour an upward trend (i.e. 90%), Dr Carter refers to exhibit A50 and says:
The analysis at A50 shows that at least 82% of the pre-1975 adjustments favour an increase in the warming trend. Of total impacts made by the 17 adjustments, more than 90% favour a warming trend.
[110] However, the document produced by the Trust sets out adjustments pre-1976 over the seven stations (some with multiple adjustments for different sites within the stations and different time periods). If Dunedin is included then the results disclose a warming trend of 13 out of 17 results which is 76%. If Dunedin is excluded then it shows a warming trend of 11 out of 13 sites, or 85%.

Example B - Carter relies on the 'Anthony Watts' method of climate analysis, where you take a photo of weather station but never bother to do any actual analysis.
Originally Posted By: New Zealand high court

As to Queenstown, Dr Wratt makes the point that Dr Carter’s criticism is based on a photograph of the site location but the comparison of the actual measurements of the site used in the 11SS with measurements from a separate site at Queenstown Airport from 1977 to 1997 shows the readings are consistent. That comparison does not suggest that there is a localised site effect warming for the Queenstown site as suggested.


Note that Jo Nova has claimed that there is no evidence of the review the BoM conducted on the NIWA temperature data, yet the court states that
Originally Posted By: New Zealand High Court

NIWA also approached the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia which agreed to undertake an independent external peer review of the methodology and documentation of the 7SS.
[141] Dr Wratt was responsible for overseeing the review which was led by Dr Mullan. The review involved independently recalculating the site temperature adjustments based on considerations of the underlying data and metadata (records about instruments, site conditions and changes). It led to an updated and revised edition of the 7SS. The results were published by NIWA in December 2010 in a publicly available report (Mullan et al 2010). The Mullan et al 2010 report was placed on NIWA’s website on 16 December 2010 (the review decision) along with a letter of support from the Bureau of Meteorology.50


Note when writing op-eds, what Bob Carter writes about the importance of peer review directly contradicts what he submitted to the court.
Originally Posted By: Bob Carter in the Murdoch Press

Scientific knowledge, then, is always in a state of flux; there is simply no such thing as "settled science", peer reviewed or otherwise.

What matters is not whether a scientific idea or article is peer reviewed, but whether the science described accords with empirical evidence.

The repetition of the "we only use peer-reviewed information" mantra that is so favoured by climate lobbyists and government-captive scientific organisations signals scientific immaturity.


But I suppose it's easy to be a cynical liar when the Heartland Institute pay him $1500 a month to as part of a program which pays"high-profile individuals who regularly and publicly counter the alarmist [anthropogenic global warming] message."



Edited by __PG__ (08/09/2012 08:09)

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#1125574 - 08/09/2012 09:18 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: __PG__]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14286
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Just waiting for the "We dodged a bullet with the Artic not completely melting this year" news articles to start appearing oh and members of the media who skulk here flogging posts for story ideas, you read it here first.
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#1125599 - 08/09/2012 11:57 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: SBT]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003

Everyone should know that the New Zealand temperatures have been screwed around with.

The fact that a certain Judge decided to not get in the middle does not mean that the New Zealand temperatures are valid.

When the adjustments constitute 100% of the trend, we should be re-examining that.

Especially given that the warmists believe too strongly in their theory. People should not be "too" anything.

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#1125601 - 08/09/2012 12:49 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: __PG__]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
The judge also found that the sceptics took email comments out of context (sound familiar?)
Originally Posted By: New Zealand High Court

When the chain of emails is read in its entirety it is apparent that NIWA was concerned to obtain as complete a record as it could of stations that were quite separate from the stations used in the 7SS and which, at least in large part, did not require adjustments. The point is illustrated when the context of Dr Wratt’s “bullet proof” comment is considered.

Carter was also found to have mis-quoted NIWA
Originally Posted By: New Zealand High Court

Dr Carter’s suggestion that NIWA had claimed the stations 'have experienced no site changes' is incorrect.

The skeptics also failed to correctly understand the mathematics..sound familiar?
Originally Posted By: New Zealand High Court

The [skeptic] Coalition incorrectly calculated the adjustments and if the RS93 methodology was applied correctly it resulted in adjustments close to those calculated in the review using the alternative method that NIWA had employed

So on the one hand, Carter et al based a case on NIWA not correctly applying the methodology laid out in RS93, yet they failed to do it themselves.

Maybe because they couldn't figure out the correct Excel formula to use.

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#1125623 - 08/09/2012 17:26 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: __PG__]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2649

"Maybe because they couldn't figure out the correct Excel formula to use."

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#1125626 - 08/09/2012 17:54 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Just like Climategate Bill. Just because they were paid off an charges werent laid, doesnt mean that criminal activity hasnt occured.
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#1125628 - 08/09/2012 18:02 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Anthony Violi]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2649
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#1125630 - 08/09/2012 18:14 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Are you pair of clowns still using power to run your Comps CB and PG?

THE ski bunnies, the electro-engineers and the resort operators all agree on one thing: 2012 is the best season in the Snowy Mountains for a long time.
According to the levels measured by Snowy Hydro, the snow was 204 centimetres deep on August 30, which is as deep as it has been since 2004.
Some say the quality and consistency of the snow is as good as it was in the famous 2000 season. Others mutter about 1990. Thredbo resort is so excited it has extended its season until next month.
What they can't agree on is how long it will last.

While climate scientists predict Australian ski seasons in future will have scantily clad slopes, the ski resorts prefer to focus on the here and now, while hedging their bets with technology that maximises the snow they have, for however long they have it.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weathe...l#ixzz25reR89kE



Edited by Simmosturf (08/09/2012 18:19)

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#1125631 - 08/09/2012 18:15 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Simmosturf]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
Originally Posted By: Bob Carter, David Evans, Stewart Franks, William Kininmonth.
Minister Wong’s Reply to Senator Fielding’s Three
Questions on Climate Change – Due Diligence 1, July 2009

...that the scientific community is now so polarised on the controversial issue of dangerous global warming that proper due diligence on the matter can only be achieved where competent scientific witnesses are cross-examined under oath and under strict rules of evidence.

Indeed!

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#1125635 - 08/09/2012 18:37 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Anthony Violi]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
Originally Posted By: Anthony Violi
Just like Climategate Bill. Just because they were paid off an charges werent laid, doesnt mean that criminal activity hasnt occured.


No. That's not true.

Have you read the judgement?
Originally Posted By: New Zealand High Court

[47] Unless the decision maker has followed a clearly improper process, the Court will be reluctant to adjudicate on matters of science and substitute its own inexpert view of the science if there is a tenable expert opinion: R (Campaign to End All Animal Experiments) v Secretary of State for the Home Department;23 Mothers Against Genetic Engineering Inc v Minister for the Environment.

[48] I consider that unless the Trust can point to some defect in NIWA’s decision-making process or show that the decision was clearly wrong in principle or in law, this Court will not intervene.

If improper process was followed, the court would have adjudicated. If the decision-making process was shown to be defective or the decision was clearly wrong in principle or law, the court would have intervened.

If criminal activity had occurred the court would have definitely intervened.

But the court found none of the above had occurred based on the evidence presented.

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#1125638 - 08/09/2012 18:52 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: __PG__]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Lol didnt you read what Bill said PG?

Irrespective of the result, the WHOLE warming trend is an adjusted one.

Which fits in well with the rest of the world.

No one can produce temps from the 1880s until now that are unadjusted and show what Hansen shows.

Hilarious. I would put Ceebee rolling around laughing, it sure looks like him because there is no genitals there.
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#1125640 - 08/09/2012 19:02 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Anthony Violi]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
Originally Posted By: Anthony Violi

No one can produce temps from the 1880s until now that are unadjusted and show what Hansen shows.

So what are you saying? The world really isn't warming and the Arctic ice cap isn't melting?

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#1125642 - 08/09/2012 19:17 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: __PG__]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Of course not you fool. This has been done to death.

NIWAS warming trend, all of it, is adjusted data.

Are you saying NZ is global? And the Arctic has nothing to do with NIWA.

NIWA have just joined on the act and got the chainsaw out and shredded the database.
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