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#1128148 - 23/09/2012 08:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: SUPER CELL]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
Nice crepuscular rays there Markus. Given the sun is 93 million miles away they seem to my eye to defy logic, and yet we can see the sun "clear as day" in front of us and we can see the rays coming straight from the sun past us without curving smile
I like your timelapse Surfer. Adds to our collective experience in making them.
No storms but it was good to see small towers going up towards sunset illustrating the principle of what I presume was nocturnal cooling, next time we need it scaled up a tad.

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#1128214 - 23/09/2012 19:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
So, models predicting a pretty windy wednesday to saturday this week, but a potentially coldie-producing cold air mass on or about Friday. Let's hope there's some showers with the wind otherwise it might be a pretty obnoxious blow except for for a few such as windfarmers and windsurfers and for those who find spring gales bracing smile

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#1128296 - 24/09/2012 10:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Taylorville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/02/2010
Posts: 57
Loc: Taylorville, SA (between Morga...
Am I missing something or have the bom scrapped the frost risk forecast? I much preferred the old web page set up. Reckon it might be cold tonight here and not a good time of the year for crops and vines.

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#1128316 - 24/09/2012 11:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Taylorville]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/weather/frost.jsp

Plus warnings are issued as per normal.

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#1128474 - 24/09/2012 16:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Taylorville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/02/2010
Posts: 57
Loc: Taylorville, SA (between Morga...
Thanks Tim.

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#1128514 - 24/09/2012 18:32 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
It could all depend on which way the wind is blowing. A group of magpies breed in nearby tall trees here every year. Yesterday I heard a squawk squawk - usual sound of young-baby magpie begging for food, somewhere on the neighbors roof or nearby shrubbery. I was looking for it from my back yard when it launched into flight from the neighbors rooftop or somewhere more distant, flutters diagonally down towards the neighbors lawn but doesn't have enough altitude and bounces or skids off the neighbors gazebo roof and plummets into the neighbors garden. That's the last I saw or heard of it. I think it's a gonner frown It was flying downwind - not good if you're trying to maintain altitude.
Looks like gfs is predicting the coldest air will be over southern SA from about Friday midnight into Saturdaya arvo.

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#1128525 - 24/09/2012 19:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Rolling thunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/12/2011
Posts: 1152
Loc: Findon, Adelaide.
What will we be looking at on Friday/Saturday Unstable? Some coldies?
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#1128599 - 25/09/2012 02:40 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Rolling thunder]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
Rt looking at the current 0Z model runs I'd guess there's about a forty percent chance of a few coldies reaching as far north as the gaa from midnight Friday to Saturday afternoon. Not looking to my eye like a major coldie event with hail and lightning but we will see - it's still four days away. Seems there's a blocking high predicted to be near New Zealand and this may steer fronts and coldie fields south-eastwards which is what we don't want.

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#1128625 - 25/09/2012 08:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Farm Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2009
Posts: 845
Loc: West Mallee SA
frost here grrrr
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#1128700 - 25/09/2012 15:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1885
Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: Unstable
It could all depend on which way the wind is blowing. A group of magpies breed in nearby tall trees here every year. Yesterday I heard a squawk squawk - usual sound of young-baby magpie begging for food, somewhere on the neighbors roof or nearby shrubbery. I was looking for it from my back yard when it launched into flight from the neighbors rooftop or somewhere more distant, flutters diagonally down towards the neighbors lawn but doesn't have enough altitude and bounces or skids off the neighbors gazebo roof and plummets into the neighbors garden. That's the last I saw or heard of it. I think it's a gonner frown It was flying downwind - not good if you're trying to maintain altitude.
Looks like gfs is predicting the coldest air will be over southern SA from about Friday midnight into Saturdaya arvo.


Good to hear your magpie observations Unstable smile Yeah it's sad fact that most youngsters don't make it frown They are tough little buggers though and he might still show up. Depends how old he was. Once you know that baby magpie looking for food 'feed me! feed me!' sound you hear it everywhere poke definitely a successful native species.

If that group don't raise any juveniles successfully from their first clutch they will probably have another go.
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#1128713 - 25/09/2012 16:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Chris #3]
Markus Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
Magpies can be vicious things. Just up the road from my house in Clare theres a couple that breed most years and one of them is very protective. When i was younger and riding up the hill this thing actually like clawed my helmet, i've since learned staring them in the eye will deter them but yeah dont get on the wrong side of this one haha.
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#1128729 - 25/09/2012 17:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Markus]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1885
Loc: Semaphore SA
Less than one in ten magpie groups swoop. I got a group to stop swooping by feeding them bits of mince meat, then they started to look at people as potential sources of food than enemies out to take their babies.

CSIRO did a pretty cool study on how to avoid being swooped poke

http://www.csiro.au/news/newsletters/SIROscope/2009/November09/htm/magpies.htm



Edited by Chris #3 (25/09/2012 17:00)
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#1128769 - 25/09/2012 19:46 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Chris #3]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Looks like this cold change is going to be more bark than bite as the LSE is only forecasted to have between 1-5mm of rain from fri-sun which is good as people wont be stuck inside because of rain smile

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#1128832 - 26/09/2012 07:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Chris #3]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14856
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Meant to mention the other day that today is the sort of pre-frontal trough embedded in a broad longwave that can produce good high-based storms if we had more instability and a better trigger. But you can look at the sky atm and see what I mean. She's got that castellanus storm look. Could still be a stray bolt from it somewhere, aviation has storms in the ARFORS.

TS cool

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#1128841 - 26/09/2012 08:18 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1511
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
Some sparks between Balaklava and Kapunda at the moment!

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#1128842 - 26/09/2012 08:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: kgb007]
ANGRE7 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2011
Posts: 222
Loc: Craigmore
yep seen nice cg out gawler way about 10 mins ago

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#1128854 - 26/09/2012 09:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ANGRE7]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
looks pretty good for Woomera-Port Augusta later today.... possible extending into Upper mid North/No-Man's land...

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#1128856 - 26/09/2012 09:19 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
banni Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/07/2006
Posts: 383
Loc: Mundulla 10km SW of Bordertown...

High base thunderstorm at Mundulla atm!

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#1128866 - 26/09/2012 10:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: banni]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14856
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Lendex of 425 for this morning which yields "Isolated thundery showers"

TS cool

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#1128868 - 26/09/2012 10:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
couple of nice storms at Kapunda and near Mannum atm...

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