Page 1 of 18 1 2 3 ... 17 18 >
Topic Options
#1136450 - 30/10/2012 09:27 NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Access and GFS both now showing the potential for reasonably widespread rain next week. The timing and placement of the event varies between models but with 2 models playing with it, I'm crossing my fingers for the areas that now really want rain.

My lawn is already browned off, I'd love to see a good old fashioned inch of rain. Most farmers around here I talk to now hope for a good fall of at least 2 inches (100mm) to get the moisture levels set again.

Watching the models with interest.


Edited by Michael Bath (07/11/2012 10:22)
Edit Reason: amended dates

Top
#1136473 - 30/10/2012 10:58 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Found a longer term EC model for next week which also shows a rainy area linked to a NW flow through Western/Southern NSW around next Wed/Thurs.

Let's hope this comes off.

Top
#1136478 - 30/10/2012 11:00 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Hope it comes off. The valleys around me have that nice green tinge of spring, but looking at my young grass, it won't take much to discourage it. soil's gone all hard and shell-like.

Top
#1136480 - 30/10/2012 11:07 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: ant]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
The less we talk about it, the more likely it will happen, so mods- please lock this thread smile

As I have said in other threads, I've pretty much accepted that it WILL be dry until about February or March. Any rain we get is a bonus, just hope the temps aren't too hot. Surly Bond's graph in the emerging drought thread shows a "cool" drought.

Top
#1136533 - 30/10/2012 13:23 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: HumphreyBear]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Better, a scathing post about how rain on the 10th cannot happen, because of this chart and that graph rhubarb rhubarb and besides your mother wears army boots.
Guarantees a flood event every time.

A cool drought would be preferable to a searing hot one, trees and things are less likely to die.

Top
#1136536 - 30/10/2012 13:31 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: ant]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Better not rain next week, I already have some plans that require dry weather. Looking at the models I cannot see anything out of the ordinary that is any different to this week or last anyway which suits me.

Top
#1136540 - 30/10/2012 13:39 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5819
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Most farmers around here I talk to now hope for a good fall of at least 2 inches (100mm) to get the moisture levels set again.



Dave,

2 inches is 50 mm's. wink

Homer

Top
#1136560 - 30/10/2012 14:17 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: Homer]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
LOL Homer I actually know that but obviously a momentary lapse of reason in my addled brain. Most wouldn't mind 100mm or 4 inches smile either. smile

I'm officially a goose. crazy

Top
#1136772 - 31/10/2012 09:14 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Still looking hopeful for mid next week to provide reasonable rainfall for some parts of the inland. Hope the Bathurst bowl is part of it.

Top
#1136789 - 31/10/2012 10:52 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2797
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Will this actually be a good soaking rain band, or one of those troughs that only produces patchy falls via isolated thunderstorms?
_________________________
Lane Cove WS - Wunderground

Top
#1136810 - 31/10/2012 12:42 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I've not gone deeply into the models, mainly because I want to see whether the models keep it up over the next few days. It seems to be setting up as a NW type cloud band. It may be more "cellular" in type or it may be a rain band.

Time will tell.

Top
#1137216 - 02/11/2012 09:03 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Access keeps the band well to the southern/western areas of NSW.

GFS lets it get further east.

Top
#1137222 - 02/11/2012 09:57 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
The ACT forecast has it arriving late Tuesday, and they've ventured to use the R word for Wednesday. we'll see though as it gets closer. Midweek rain would be perfect! Weekend rain this time of year really flaps things up, it's weddings, fetes and open gardens season.

Whenever it comes, we need it.

Top
#1137236 - 02/11/2012 10:50 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: ant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I think you are more likely to see rain than us in a NW set up. We would all like a drink soon out here, well before wheat harvest preferably.

Top
#1137248 - 02/11/2012 11:48 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
Bathurstscan Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/11/2001
Posts: 1960
Loc: Taree NSW Australia
First week would rather not see rain, have a flying course all week, need good wx for a change!

Top
#1137267 - 02/11/2012 13:22 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: Bathurstscan]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
What are you whingeing about smile We've had nothing BUT good weather, we need some filthy weather. smile

I'm sure you'll get plenty of flying in DC smile Just fly the holes in the cloud.

What's the course? anything special (eg instruments) or a continuation of the normal flying?

Top
#1137268 - 02/11/2012 13:23 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
Bathurstscan Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/11/2001
Posts: 1960
Loc: Taree NSW Australia
Haha, instructor course mate, all week.. Nah we need rain mate, pretty dry in spots. You know i like a good storm.

Top
#1137275 - 02/11/2012 13:57 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: Bathurstscan]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
As long as the good storm is not tossing you about like a leaf. smile

I notice the Rain word has made it into Opticast for later next week here. It's a start I suppose - fingers crossed.

There will be enough heat about too to make the sky road a bit bumpy in places, enjoy!!

Top
#1137407 - 03/11/2012 09:18 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Access starting to look more positive for my area now. It still seems predominantly west of here but pushews over us ahead of the passage of a cool front.

GFS looks quite ok for here around Thursday as well. We might get 10 or 20mm, nice, not enough but nice.

Top
#1137484 - 03/11/2012 20:55 Re: NSW Rain & Storms 5 - 9 November 2012 [Re: DaveM]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thread says :rain around the 10th NOV.?
What about this wednesday ..the 7th November!!
WATL has up to 50-100mm for the area around albury, wagga wagga, and canberra.
First decent N/W rain band . Looks promising to bring rainfall totals up in some places at least..
I am jealous.. We could do with that in west VIC..
The 8 day forecast for the eastern quadrant of OZ ..looks great!

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp?model=amnt&date=2007011912&state=vic&district=

( hot-linked this map may update)
WEDNESDAY 7th November 2012 ..24 hr total !!



The 8 day forecast looks sensational !! with some where in s/east NSW to get up to 150mm. WATL says likely WAGGA vicinity.. I think thats the riverina district. A deluge !!
This rain should put a dent in that drought for many!
Farmers would get hay/crop in first or wait till after the deluge?

_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
Page 1 of 18 1 2 3 ... 17 18 >


Who's Online
1 registered (1 invisible), 312 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
bruny, DavidJK, Jeepie
Forum Stats
29586 Members
32 Forums
23919 Topics
1493045 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image