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#1140502 - 16/11/2012 14:07 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: Locke]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2937
Loc: Mt Warren Park
Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Originally Posted By: Locke
From my laymans perspective, the seabreeze is already feeding in some low level moisture to fill in that dry slow I see on the sounding but I'm looking at that cap and thinking its not going to break.

Not confident we'll see any storms in Brissie today. Maybe in the Southern suburbs perhaps.


i agree Locke - to me it doesn't feel like we'll see anything - if we do maybe a flash here, a flash there but i think that's all we'll see here .... when you say "i'm looking at that cap and thinking it's not going to break" is that for today? tomorrow? sunday?

what temp do we need to hit tomorrow for these "potentially" dangerous storms - in a matter of a few minutes we've gone from 35.8 up to 36.1 and still climbing and it's only 12.05pm .. ouch ouch ouch!!!!


I was just referring to this mornings Brisbane sounding.


ok locke thanks for clearing that up smile .... does anyone know what sort of temps we need to hit for tomorrow and sunday to break the cap? ../. we've dropped from 36.1 down to 35.8 and it fluctuates slightly ... still i reckon you could cook sausages and egg on our roof!
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#1140503 - 16/11/2012 14:28 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: pkgjmg]
Scud Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 1207
Loc: Mcleans Ridges
Latest forecast charts for ACCESSR are now out and going for shower/storm development on the change this evening across the NR's pushing into the Gold Coast/Beaudesert regions later this evening and then into the southern suburbs of Brisbane overnight before clearing away in the morning.

Rest of Saturday according to ACCESSR will see storms fire up on the eastern downs and western Brisbane areas before heading off north to north east towards the Sunshine Coast. Brisbane CBD and the eastern suburbs look to miss out.

Not often you see DP's in the low single figures the day before a big storm event however the moisture surge inland overnight is quite impressive. the Dew Point animation for ACCESSR on WZ Pro shows it really well.

Now to see what GFS and EC have to say in a couple of hours.

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#1140504 - 16/11/2012 14:40 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: Scud]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Looks like some weak cells trying to get going between Taree and Port Macquarie.

Overcast and mild here. A fairly comfortable day, despite DPs around 20C. If you didn't have access to forecasts / forecast models etc, you probably wouldn't think that there was the chance of a storm this afternoon/evening.
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#1140505 - 16/11/2012 14:40 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: Scud]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2937
Loc: Mt Warren Park
found what i was looking for! .. will be interesting to see what the GFS says at 2.30-3pm!

1.44pm - we are now sitting on 36.4, 37% humidity and 1007hpa ..


Edited by Seabreeze (16/11/2012 14:49)
Edit Reason: Please use edit button if still within 10mins of previous post :)
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#1140508 - 16/11/2012 14:47 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: pkgjmg]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2495
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
This morning sounding for Brisbane airport was not good in terms of moisture.

All the action at this point in time, from observing the radar images seems to be around central NSW. And as Seabreeze indicated in his post.

Just need to wait and see what unfolds latter this evening for SEQ as the forecast trough slowly moves eastwards over the interior of Queensland and then approaches the far southern coast late tonight or in the early hours of Saturday.

Currently at Bracken Ridge it is 30.6C but the humity is way down to 32% giving me a DP of 14.72C
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#1140510 - 16/11/2012 14:53 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: Scud]
Severely Tall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/11/2006
Posts: 751
Loc: Melbourne, Victoria
This event is certainly looking interesting and somewhat potent. My big concern tomorrow is premature detonation - the potential for capping to erode early on may cause some negative factors with cell competition which would be a shame given the relatively good shear for SEQ (effective deep layer shear (0-8) on the order of 50-60 knots, despite the more anaemic low levels). However without higher vertical resolution in the models its difficult to really be sure as to what the capping potential is. While I like the strong low-level winds that develop further south and inland in Northern NSW this area looks to have residual moisture issues and the potential to remain strongly capped, it certainly doesn't look like having the surface moisture of SEQ. That surface moisture on current runs looks at putting LCLs in the ballpark for good surface based storm potential, with some interesting shear in the 0-1 layer (and accompanying helicity with LLJ, particularly 0-3 in the SEQ later in the piece). Certainly will be interesting to watch.
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#1140511 - 16/11/2012 14:58 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: Severely Tall]
LQQKN Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/08/2007
Posts: 1438
Loc: , tweed coast
alright somethings happening. forming around texas and moving east north east enjoy and stay safe all


Edited by LQQKN (16/11/2012 15:03)

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#1140514 - 16/11/2012 15:19 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: LQQKN]
joesk Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/08/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: In a BUS, where ever I stop..
First lightning strikes out west showing up

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#1140515 - 16/11/2012 15:20 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: LQQKN]
SnowedIn Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/02/2011
Posts: 235
Loc: Mudgeeraba, Gold Coast QLD
some media on the gold coast are reporting potential tordeno conditions later today and tomorrow!!
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#1140517 - 16/11/2012 15:27 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: SnowedIn]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6001
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: GCweather
some media on the gold coast are reporting potential tordeno conditions later today and tomorrow!!


I haven't seen a good tordeno for years. wink

Homer

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#1140519 - 16/11/2012 15:35 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: Homer]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1145
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I am liking Lismore again for todays action.

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#1140521 - 16/11/2012 15:37 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: Homer]
Scud Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 1207
Loc: Mcleans Ridges
They were a band from the 60's weren't they?!? wink

Gotta love the media! Tornado chances tonight = impossible with such dry conditions. Tomorrow there is certainly the chance of a Tornado in some areas however the Gold Coast wouldn't be in my list.

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#1140523 - 16/11/2012 15:41 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: Homer]
chamellieon Offline
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Registered: 15/12/2010
Posts: 113
Loc: Brisbane North East
I'm considering chasing Saturday and Sunday, I live (pretty much) in the Bris CBD
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#1140524 - 16/11/2012 15:45 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: chamellieon]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2937
Loc: Mt Warren Park
wow! 00z run is out and wooooooooooee .. definitely going to be an interesting weekend that's for sure!
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#1140527 - 16/11/2012 15:54 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: Homer]
Dragonfly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/10/2011
Posts: 193
Loc: Warwick SE Qld
It's not as dark SW of Warwick as I expected it would be. But none the less it is still looking unstable. Extensive mid level cloud now covering Warwick blocking the heating unfortunately but temp still around 33C

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#1140534 - 16/11/2012 16:19 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: pkgjmg]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 119
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
wow! 00z run is out and wooooooooooee .. definitely going to be an interesting weekend that's for sure!


Could you link me please?
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#1140535 - 16/11/2012 16:22 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: zuldjan]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2851
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
[quote=pkgjmg]wow! 00z run is out and wooooooooooee .. definitely going to be an interesting weekend that's for sure!


Could you link me please? [/quote

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html?chart=ts
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#1140537 - 16/11/2012 16:24 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: james1977]
red1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/01/2011
Posts: 62
Loc: Dunoon 2480 nsw
like the look of whats building over near tenterfield. Will it reach Lismore??

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#1140539 - 16/11/2012 16:31 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: red1]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1061
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Chris. I know what u r talking about, even though it is mostly cloudy, there is still plenty of heat available. I would not mind a good light show tonight!!
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#1140540 - 16/11/2012 16:32 Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Thunderstorms - Nov 14th to Nov 18th 2012 [Re: red1]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Hold crap at the 00Z run. -9Li's and 2200 cape for Saturday and all close to the city.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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