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#1144030 - 23/11/2012 11:57 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: S .O.]
Wayne Stollings Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/11/2012
Posts: 14
Originally Posted By: Southern Oracle
Originally Posted By: Wayne Stollings
Originally Posted By: Locke
I think your kinda missing the point I was making Warmair.

Sceptics are generally not the ones saying "its not peer reviewed" whenever AGW theory is discussed. Like I said, it seems the peer review requirement only works one way eh?


Not many peer review publications for accounting are there? One does not have to publish on the subject when one uses the published peer reviewed information in their own area of expertise.

Not many painters are expert chemists, but they can use the information from chemists to know whether the paint will be usable in a certain situation and what the outcome of that use will be.



And not many Chemists have the skill or the know how to apply paint well ......!?

And your point is ???

Or is this just a projection of Elitism ?


Sorry if I confused you. I was pointing out the fact that the economists rely on the scientific expertise of the experts in order to determine the probable impacts of climate change.

Just to let you know, more chamists who formulate paint can apply paint than painters can formulate paint, especially the newer water based and low VOC versions.

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#1144031 - 23/11/2012 11:59 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Bill Illis]
Wayne Stollings Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/11/2012
Posts: 14
Originally Posted By: Bill Illis


A long ago version of this chart got me into this debate in the first place.

Larger size link.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi_2012.fig2.png





Yes, the human fingerprint can be seen in those increases.

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#1144067 - 23/11/2012 14:16 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Wayne Stollings]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10370
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Just a reminder to adhere to the forum guidelines. Let's return to the science, and avoid the personal remarks.

Thankyou.

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#1144089 - 23/11/2012 15:20 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
A warmer wetter world means stability of the natural environment can no longer be taken for granted...

Climate change should send a chill through banks

If climate change leads to more volatile and extreme weather, more heat waves, flooding, higher fire risk and eventually rising sea levels, this will affect the value of some bank assets. It will also affect lending patterns, both through debt serviceability and the availability of asset insurance.

Climate change is just one uncertainty facing bankers and insurers, and certainly not the most immediate. The challenges of global over-leverage among households and governments are well understood. So is the rise of emerging economies, and the challenges of demographic shifts and digital technology.

Less well recognised are the challenges in relation to critical resources and their impact on banks. In the same week in September as the news on the sea ice, Sanford Bernstein estimated the global marginal cost of oil production was now $92 per barrel. In May, International Monetary Fund research predicted a near doubling of the real oil price over the next decade.

Limits on fresh water availability are being seen not just in agriculture, but also in power generation in key economies, reducing the effective buffer of huge reserves of uranium, coal and gas.

Banks are dependent on the generation and growth of economic surplus for servicing and repayment of debt by borrowers. Anything which tends to reduce that surplus impacts the economics of banking. Low and stable prices for energy, water and food over the 1980s to mid-2000s were direct contributing factors to the growth in risk appetite and hence bank profitability.

These factors are unwinding, even before we add actual and expectations effects of climate change.

Recent experience and theoretical advances suggest such unwinding does not happen in a predictable linear manner but in much more of a sudden “tipping point” style.

Read full article

----------

Investor group says trillions of dollars at risk from climate change

A coalition of the world's largest investors called on governments on Tuesday to ramp up action on climate change and boost clean-energy investment or risk trillions of dollars in investments and disruption to economies.

In an open letter, the alliance of institutional investors, responsible for managing $US22.5 trillion ($22 trillion) in assets, said rapidly growing greenhouse gas emissions and more extreme weather were increasing investment risks globally.

The group called for dialogue between investors and governments to overhaul climate and energy policies.

"Current policies are insufficient to avert serious and dangerous impacts from climate change," said the group of investors from the United States, Europe, Asia and Australia.

The investments and retirement savings of millions of people were being jeopardised because governments were delaying tougher emissions cuts or more generous support for greener energy.

The group said the right policies would prompt institutional investors to significantly increase investments in cleaner energy and energy efficiency, citing existing policies that have unleashed billions of dollars of renewable energy investment in China, the United States and Europe.

But many economies were still going to be heavily reliant on polluting fossil fuels such as coal, and policies needed to be implemented to speed up the shift to cleaner energy, the investors said.

They issued seven action points, including slashing fossil fuel subsidies and boosting carbon markets, for governments to focus on and said the re-election of Barack Obama in the United States and the leadership change in China were an opportunity to push for tougher climate talks.

"Strong carbon-reducing government policies are an urgent imperative," said Chris Davis, director of investor programs at Ceres, a US-based coalition of investors and green groups.

"Hurricane Sandy, which caused more than $US50 billion in economic losses, is typical of what we can expect if no action is taken and warming trends continue," said Davis, who also works for the Investor Network on Climate Risk, which groups 100 institutional investors with assets of more than $US11 trillion.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climat...l#ixzz2D15QHcAw


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#1144179 - 23/11/2012 21:09 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
BAH HAHAHA gees im glad I started this subject... I get some great laughs from the articles.

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#1144180 - 23/11/2012 21:13 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Simmosturf]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Anyone see lateline and the Science (fiction) to stop manmade climate change(Cr#p)
And the cost?
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/

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#1144219 - 24/11/2012 01:13 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Simmosturf]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Yes Simmo ,

I saw that and commented on it in the Ice Thread . OT , but was relevant to what was posted .

With regards to the Lateline show . I almost chocked on my whiskey when it came on ...

Didn't know whether to laugh or Cry ..... it disturbed me how serious they were !
ie the levels people ( so called intelligent people ) would be willing to go to combat " the boogie man " ...?!!
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#1144236 - 24/11/2012 08:54 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: S .O.]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Leaders face riddle of lack of warming

[Graham Lloyd] - The Australian

“…the most recent global temperature record, released this week, shows the average global temperature fell last year for the second year.

In short, there is agreement that the rising trend has stalled.

Many scientists accept there are natural processes at work that are not properly factored into the global temperature models.

German environmentalist Fritz Vahrenholt, a former Social Democrat Party senator, founder of wind-energy company REpower and president of the German Wildlife Foundation, has been particularly outspoken.

“According to the IPCC climate models, there should be an increase in global temperature of 0.2C per decade,” he says.

“But if you look at the data series of satellite-based temperature measurements and the data from the British Hadley Centre (HadCRUT), you find that since 1998 there has been no warming; the temperature has remained at a plateau. We know how mainstream climate scientists would answer this question: 15 years is not a climate signal; it must happen for 30 years,” Vahrenholt says, “But there must be an explanation for the unexpected absence of warming.”

Vahrenholt’s answer is that the exclusion of solar activity and decadal oscillations from climate models leads to erroneous results. Vahrenholt’s point is not that climate change shouldn’t be addressed but that fear-driven energy policy works against the interests of nature, the poor and economic good sense. He says there is time to find solutions that work.

This is the background against which governments will meet in Doha…





h/t JoNova
_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1144241 - 24/11/2012 10:06 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: snafu]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637

According to the combined global land and ocean temps 2010 and 2005 were the warmest on record going back to 1880. Therefore the statement "since 1998 there has been no warming" is not correct.
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#1144253 - 24/11/2012 11:29 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: CeeBee

According to the combined global land and ocean temps 2010 and 2005 were the warmest on record going back to 1880. Therefore the statement "since 1998 there has been no warming" is not correct.




Until the NCDC, GISS and Hadcrut start presenting the data with both the "Raw Measured" and "Adjusted Homogenized" temperature series side-by-side, noone should accept the historical temperature series from these agencies any longer.

The data is corrupted.

We only have satellite measurements since 1979 (just like used to be said about the sea ice).

I hate saying it has come to this but it has.

The data is corrupted.

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#1144256 - 24/11/2012 11:44 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Bill Illis]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
And that's your opinion Bill. The peer reviewed science says otherwise.

Speaking of science, look at how Jonova twists the facts and picks cherries...

Moral indignation is jealousy with a halo

The intelligent and attractive Dr Jonica Newby presented an entire episode of Catalyst recently. Joanne Nova gets hot and bothered and responds with the usual mixture of myths, cherry picking and misrepresentation of science.

Let us ponder a few of Joanne’s comments…
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#1144259 - 24/11/2012 11:59 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
For some time I have been expressing the opinion that a warming and therefore a wetter world will be ever so much better for the future of mankind and life on earth rather than a cooling and more arid world that the alarmist insist must be forced onto mankind to "save the planet".
"Saving the Planet" from what is becoming increasingly unclear as the 0.7 C per century rise in global temperatures of the last 150 years since the end of the LIA have plateaued over the last 14 or so years.
HADCRU, and Phil Jones plus other prominent climate warming scientists are all now admitting that the plateauing of the global temperature rise and now the recent fall in global temperatures for the second year running are all becoming significant in scientific terms.

The interesting item is now that the global temperature rise has ceased for either the moment of permanently, a lot of the arguments by the alarmists on the catastrophic global warming ahead are becoming increasingly harder to sustain when the global temperatures refuse to co-operate.
So the big push now by the greens and watermelons and alarmists is for another supposedly fear inducing claim that global warming is creating "severe weather" which will ensure that the influence of the alarmists and greens organisations will be retained and their coffers kept overflowing by contributions from Governments and individuals to "fight" global warming.

Anthony Watts of WUWT is in the process of creating an "Extreme Weather Reference Page" where you can check all the claims of the alarmists on the trends in the so called "severe weather" all based on the data and graphs from the acknowledged climate data authorities.

One of the constant claims made by Ceebee in particular is that a warming world will lead to more droughts and severe weather. What basis he uses for those claims i don't know unless it is as usual, the data corrupting ,data manipulation and data bending SkS source.

WUWT's extreme weather page source has included this graph on global rainfall trends as created by the US EPA.


So according to the EPA's graph and listed on that graph, the world has a 1901 -2009, some 108 years of an increasing precipitation trend of 1.89 % per century.

Looks like all this global warming does lead to a wetter world after all and as I and Bill Illis have claimed and is now demonstrated above in the EPA graph.

But there is more.
Despite rising global temperatures for the last century and despite claims on how global warming is making droughts more severe and common, a claim we had posted here ad nauseum about the recent American mid west drought, we have this from "Nature"

Little change in global drought over the past 60 years
Quote:
Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming1, 2, 3. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming4, 5. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change6. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation7 that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles8 that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years

And the drought occurrence graph to go with the paper



Seems like that warmer, wetter world might not be such a bad thing after all compared to a colder, drier and more arid world where we might have a lot of problems feeding the earth's growing population but a world that the greens and climate warming alarmists and CAGW adherents want us to have and are trying to force mankind to create.

Edit; You can check for yourselves the global precipitation on a yearly basis in this GPCC visualizer site


Edited by ROM (24/11/2012 12:05)

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#1144264 - 24/11/2012 12:26 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14219
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Jo Novas website stats: http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/joannenova.com.au#

Itsnotnova website: http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/itsnotnova.wordpress.com#

Nice way to drive people to view her blog though CB.
_________________________
July 6mm
2018 Total 743mm






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#1144268 - 24/11/2012 13:33 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
Originally Posted By: ROM
For some time I have been expressing the opinion that a warming and therefore a wetter world will be ever so much better for the future of mankind and life on earth rather than a cooling and more arid world that the alarmist insist must be forced onto mankind to "save the planet".
"Saving the Planet" from what is becoming increasingly unclear as the 0.7 C per century rise in global temperatures of the last 150 years since the end of the LIA have plateaued over the last 14 or so years.
HADCRU, and Phil Jones plus other prominent climate warming scientists are all now admitting that the plateauing of the global temperature rise and now the recent fall in global temperatures for the second year running are all becoming significant in scientific terms.

The interesting item is now that the global temperature rise has ceased for either the moment of permanently, a lot of the arguments by the alarmists on the catastrophic global warming ahead are becoming increasingly harder to sustain when the global temperatures refuse to co-operate.
So the big push now by the greens and watermelons and alarmists is for another supposedly fear inducing claim that global warming is creating "severe weather" which will ensure that the influence of the alarmists and greens organisations will be retained and their coffers kept overflowing by contributions from Governments and individuals to "fight" global warming.

Anthony Watts of WUWT is in the process of creating an "Extreme Weather Reference Page" where you can check all the claims of the alarmists on the trends in the so called "severe weather" all based on the data and graphs from the acknowledged climate data authorities.

One of the constant claims made by Ceebee in particular is that a warming world will lead to more droughts and severe weather. What basis he uses for those claims i don't know unless it is as usual, the data corrupting ,data manipulation and data bending SkS source.

WUWT's extreme weather page source has included this graph on global rainfall trends as created by the US EPA.


So according to the EPA's graph and listed on that graph, the world has a 1901 -2009, some 108 years of an increasing precipitation trend of 1.89 % per century.

Looks like all this global warming does lead to a wetter world after all and as I and Bill Illis have claimed and is now demonstrated above in the EPA graph.

But there is more.
Despite rising global temperatures for the last century and despite claims on how global warming is making droughts more severe and common, a claim we had posted here ad nauseum about the recent American mid west drought, we have this from "Nature"

Little change in global drought over the past 60 years
Quote:
Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming1, 2, 3. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming4, 5. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change6. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation7 that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles8 that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years

And the drought occurrence graph to go with the paper



Seems like that warmer, wetter world might not be such a bad thing after all compared to a colder, drier and more arid world where we might have a lot of problems feeding the earth's growing population but a world that the greens and climate warming alarmists and CAGW adherents want us to have and are trying to force mankind to create.

Edit; You can check for yourselves the global precipitation on a yearly basis in this GPCC visualizer site


My sources for the claims that a warming world will lead to more droughts and severe weather is from the peer reviewed literature. Unlike the skeptics claims that we are now heading into a permanent cooling period of doom.

Claims that the planet is now cooling is not borne out by the evidence as shown in the satellite temps. It is hotter now than 2011.





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#1144271 - 24/11/2012 13:51 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
OK, so now we are measuring global temperatures at 14,000 feet, the 600 mb level and above the inversion layer below which the surface temperatures are measured.
All presumably because that graph fits the AGW needs of the moment.

And regards the claims of less rainfall and more droughts as those non rising global temperatures continue to refuse to rise, and that you're sources for more droughts as global temperatures rise, are from peer reviewed papers, I would suspect that you are using the graphs produced from the appropriately selected "climate modeled" reductions in global rainfall, not from actual real recorded global rainfall as the EPA's graph is apparently derived from.

So if you have a problem with the accuracy and correctness of that EPA global precipitation graph, why don't you take it up with Lisa Jackson, the head of the American EPA which produced that graph,

Although I suspect Jackson might not be interested much as she has her hands full with the Republicans and even some Democrats now after her for deliberately circumventing the statutory requirements of making all internal and external EPA communications publicly available to Congress and the Senate under the FOI laws.

And that is a criminal, jailable offense when the American Congress and the Senate are involved.

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#1144274 - 24/11/2012 14:22 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: ROM]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
What happens the higher in alt. on that graph CeeBee? wink
_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1144315 - 24/11/2012 20:12 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: snafu]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14219
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
November 24, 2012 | Graham

Paedophilia, climate science and the ABC

(1) http://www.ambitgambit.com/2012/11/24/paedophilia-climate-science-and-the-abc/

confused Why does this bloke still have a job ABC?


Edited by Seabreeze (24/11/2012 22:57)
Edit Reason: Rather unrelated to AGW discussion but link remains for those that may want to read it - Note: Swear word in link's content
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2018 Total 743mm






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#1144353 - 24/11/2012 22:48 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
Originally Posted By: ROM
OK, so now we are measuring global temperatures at 14,000 feet, the 600 mb level and above the inversion layer below which the surface temperatures are measured.


What you're seeing in the graph is the satellite temps as authored by Roy Spencer. I used the satellite temps so as to avoid the usual claims that the surface based temps are all corrupt and cannot be used.

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/


Edited by Seabreeze (24/11/2012 23:00)
Edit Reason: Removed trolling comments
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#1144378 - 25/11/2012 07:07 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
To add to my post above 14,000 feet is within the troposphere.

During global warming, the atmosphere in the lower atmosphere (called the troposphere) warms at least as fast as the surface warms.

Quote:
The troposphere is the lowest portion of Earth's atmosphere. It contains approximately 80% of the atmosphere's mass and 99% of its water vapor and aerosols.[2] The average depth of the troposphere is approximately 17 km (11 mi) in the middle latitudes. It is deeper in the tropics, up to 20 km (12 mi), and shallower near the polar regions, at 7 km (4.3 mi) in summer, and indistinct in winter.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co...tte_STS-130.jpg
The orange layer is the troposphere, where all of the weather and clouds which we typically watch and experience are generated and contained.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troposphere
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#1144386 - 25/11/2012 08:44 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Interesting when you use 2002 & 2009 instead of 2011... wink

Values for Nov 21st

2002: -20.65C
2009: -20.62C
2012: -20.72C

It's colder now than what it was 10 years ago.

Doesn't look so 'warm' now does it?
_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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