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#115123 - 24/02/2004 18:43 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
Good afternoon Keith, Shane and Ben;

A moist onshore airstream at the surface interacted with a sharp forming upper trough to generate light to moderate rain this afternoon, as the winds strengthened. The morning was cool and mostly dry, with brief sunny breaks. Maximums reached the 20-21C mark, under the overcast and gloomy weather. Tonight won't change much from this afternoon, with moderate periods of rain still expected. Minimums around the mid teens.

Wednesday will be another wet one, with widespread ascent and increasing instability. Rain periods tending to showers later. Chance local thunderstorms. The rain possibly heavy in the morning and early afternoon. Winds light to moderate easterly, fresh on the coast at times. Maximums: 20C all suburbs.

Cloudmaster

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#115124 - 24/02/2004 19:10 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5297
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
G'day all.

A cold, wet day today (unfortunately the rain just started before lunch!). Overcast up here in the Northern Suburbs the whole day, with no sunny breaks at all. Mid-level cloud started off the day but low cloud increased later. Light rain started falling, moderate at times. The rain has picked up significantly this evening, and has gotten heavier. It doesn't look to stop either. 22mm at my house so far, which is the highest in the metro are atm it seems. Rain looks to increase tonight and tomorrow and get heavier, before easing somewhat Thursday.
For tonight and tomorrow: Rain, with widespread moderate falls, locally heavy. Moderate rain tomorrow with locally heavy falls, easing to rain periods tomorrow evening. Chance of localised thunderstorms associated with heavy rain. Tops of 20c coastal, 21c in the west. Rain periods Thursday. Tops of 20-21c. Rain periods easing to showers Friday morning, before only a shower or two Friday afternoon. Chance of a shower or two Friday night also. A possible early shower Saturday before clearing up. Possible storms on Sunday before showers once again develop.

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#115125 - 25/02/2004 15:11 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
G'day Ben, Shane and Scotty,

I have recorded 60mm of rain since 12 noon yesterday. Of that, 43mm fell to 8am. It has been cool to mild and generally cloudy, though there were some brief sunny breaks earlier this afternoon. These had been preceded by a spell of quite heavy rain in which the rate reached 47.2mm/hr as the upper trough passed over. The temperature so far has only reached 20 or 21 degrees however. It is presently cloudy to overcast with showers or rain in the area.
A strong high in the southern Tasman maintains a very moist easterly stream into eastern NSW. A small depression has formed off the mid north coast and is intensifying. Tropical cyclone Ivy lies northeast of Vanuatu and the latest models indicate it will turn more to the south and become a deep extratropical depression. This change of direction is due to the upper trough that has been bringing the rain to eastern NSW.
Models further into the week are considerably divergent although 2 models (ECM and GASP) place a high off the south coast early next week. GFS moves the high further south and retains the offshore depression now developing, in the south Tasman with a southerly stream.
For now, the rain will ease to showers, and a fine weekend will ensue. This will happen due to the offshore low moving SSE through the Tasman Sea.
Forecast for the rest of today and tomorrow: Cloudy and humid with scattered showers and drizzle tending to rain at times. Fresh east to southeast winds, strong on the coast. Expect cloudy weather at first tomorrow. Showers or rain decreasing overnight. A few showers tomorrow morning. Sunny breaks increasing. Mild to warm and humid with fresh to strong south to southeast winds. Maximum temps: 23 on the coast, 25 inland.
Further outlook: A shower or two Friday otherwise fine with sunny periods. Moderating southwest to southeast winds. Fine on the weekend with sunny periods and winds gradually turning east to northeast. Warmer Monday and fine with lengthy sunny periods. Possible showers or storms on Tuesday/Wednesday.

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#115126 - 25/02/2004 17:27 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
Hi Keith, Ben and Shane...

The battle of two very saturated airmasses along the central eastern coast of NSW on Wednesday - with differing levels of stability. One being the lower levelled unstable one, bringing onshore stream showers, and the other stable airmass bringing rain periods from the northwest, ahead of the upper trough. Speaking of the upper trough, it's sitting across the ranges, which in interaction with a surface trough has formed a cold cored low off the Northern Rivers district of the NSW coastline this afternoon. This low has formed in the suitable synoptic setup, which is being craddled by a very strong Tasman high. TC Ivy is just under 1000mb 2000km northwest of Brisbane, and is pumping vast amounts of tropical moisture southwest into the continent.

The upper trough is still retarted back through central NSW, and is generating storms on this highlands this afternoon and rain/showers along the saturated seaboard. Rain was widespread through Sydney earlier on Wednesday, and falls were locally heavy. Since then, winds have turned southeasterly throughout the atmosphere, so rain will ease tonight, and onshore stream showers will take over. Rain is more likely in the western and northern suburbs overnight, whilst showers in the eastern and northeastern suburbs. Winds easing from the east/southeast.

On Thursday, the low will move further southwards, to be placed roughly off the MNC at 5pm. This will force a deep southeast flow through the majority of the vertical profile of Sydney. A very saturated airmass, with a strong upper trough overhead, to me is a very wet day. Overcast day. The last of the 'rain' will clear very early in the morning, with only light falls expected from that. Showers will increase through the morning, and be locally heavy. Easing slightly in the afternoon. Moderate to strong southeast winds, strong and gusty along the coast.

Cloudmaster

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#115127 - 26/02/2004 16:02 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
Good afternoon Keith, Ben and Shane;

The wet Thursday that was predicted didn't eventuate. Misjudgment of the precise position of the upper trough was a key factor, and this led to a mostly cloudy day, with lenghty sunny periods this afternoon. Heavy showers were still present very early this morning as the upper trough departed out into the Tasman. A deepening low pressure system however, off the coastline has persisted a deep and cool southeast flow. This has kept maximums to only 21-23C on the coast and 23-25C inland, despite solid sunny periods this afternoon.

Overnight winds will continue strong southeasterly and bring in occasional showers, possibly heavy. Mainly along the coast, and eastern suburbs. A mild evening with cloud gradually decreasing. Friday should be fine, warm and mostly dry as the low pressure depression edges off towards New Zealand. Showers possible around the coast earlier in the morning. Lenghtly sunny periods later. Winds will ease substantially from the southeast and not be as gusty. Moderate to fresh earlier, particularly along the coast, easing to light inland. Shifting moderate east/northeast later in the afternoon, fresh on the coast. Maximums: 24C along the coast and 26C inland.

Cloudmaster

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#115128 - 26/02/2004 16:07 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
G'day guys,

A mild partly cloudy day today with scattered showers especially this morning. Sunny breaks have increased this afternoon. Southwest to southeast winds have been fresh to strong and gusty. Maximum was 23.
A deepening depression in the central Tasman Sea is moving SE towards New Zealand, generating a vigorous south to southeast stream and a few showers onto the NSW coast. Tropical cyclone Ivy is moving SSE past Vanuatu and will link up with the Tasman Sea depression in a few days. As the depression moves away, high pressure will become established in the southern Tasman, bringing warmer northeast winds early next week.
Forecast for the rest of today and tomorrow: Mild with a few showers, especially nearer the coast. Sunny breaks this afternoon. Fresh to strong and gusty south to southeast winds easing a little tonight. Mild tomorrow with a shower or two chiefly coastal and mainly in the morning. Sunny periods increasing. Fresh south to southeast winds easing later. Maximum temps: 24 on the coast, 26 inland.
Further outlook: Fine on the weekend apart from the chance of a shower or two at night. Moderate southeast winds turning east to northeast Sunday. Fine and becoming warmer Monday onwards with north to northeast winds.

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#115129 - 27/02/2004 15:42 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
G'day Scotty,

A cool night was followed by a dry mild to warm day today with lengthy sunny periods and some low cloud patches. Moderate to fresh southerly winds have turned south to southeast this afternoon. Max temp was 27.
A brief southerly change will affect us on Sunday as high pressure weakens in the wake of the Tasman Sea depression which is moving steadily towards New Zealand and an eventual marriage to (tropical cyclone) Ivy, from whence they will take a trip in the southern ocean westerlies. High pressure will then redevelop to our south. Fine warm weather will continue until late next week when an inland trough is likely to bring renewed very warm and humid weather with thunderstorms.
For today and tomorrow: Warm and sunny this afternoon. A cool night. A little low cloud. Moderate to fresh south to southeast winds easing. Warm and sunny tomorrow with lighter south to southeast winds turning east to northeast in the afternoon. Maximum temps: 28 inland, 26 on the coast.
Further outlook: Warm on Sunday with increasing cloud. Northwest to northeast winds ahead of a southerly change with chance of showers. Dry and mild Monday, becoming warmer Tuesday onwards. Southeast winds turning northeast Tuesday. Increasing humidity later in the week with thunderstorms likely on Friday mainly in the west.

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#115130 - 27/02/2004 16:08 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
Afternoon Keith;

A sunny day across the Metropolitan as the ECL moved to be south of Lord Howe Is later this afternoon. A fresh southerly air flow has remained in its wake, and kept temperatures on average for this time of the year. Low cloud has increased this afternoon as winds tend southeasterly. Maximums around 24-26C, locally higher in the western suburbs. Overnight will be cool and clear, with isolated pockets of mist in the western suburbs Saturday morning.

Saturday will be sunny and warm to very warm as the low pressure system holts to influence our weather. A new high pressure ridge builds along the coast, and turns winds north/northeasterly. Maximums: 28C along the coast and 32C out west. Freshening seabreezes along the coast later.

Cloudmaster

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#115131 - 27/02/2004 22:21 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5297
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
G'day guys

A cool start to the morning, a bit chilly. It warmed up slowly by cracked the 20's eventually and it got pleasantly warm. Stratocu early cleared and it became nearly clear by the afternoon. Tomorrow SE winds should turn NE, after yet another chilly start. Remaining fine and mostly sunny, fresh seabreezes along the coast. Mid-20's on the coast, high 20's inland. Low 30's on Sunday ahead of a cooler gusty S'ly change with a slight risk of a storm, and a possible shower or two after the change.

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#115132 - 28/02/2004 15:52 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
G'day Ben and Scotty,

A dry warm day today with a max of 31 being reached at the moment. Mainly sunny. Light to moderate north to northwest winds and a moderate seabreeze. This is all thanks to a weakening high pressure cell that has moved to the NW Tasman Sea ahead of a cold front moving up from the southwest. This front will move along the coast tomorrow bringing southeast winds and a coastal shower or two. However little weather will precede it apart from some high and middle cloud patches. High pressure will move to the southwest Tasman Sea during the coming week with more dry warm weather ahead of a southerly change likely next weekend with chance of showers or storms.
Forecast for the rest of today and tomorrow: Dry warm and sunny this afternoon. Moderate tof resh and gusty northeast winds easing tonight. A mild night with some high and middle cloud developing tomorrow morning. Warm tomorrow at first with freshening northwest winds ahead of a milder fresh southeast change by early afternoon. Low cloud increasing afterwards and chance of a coastal shower or two at night. Maximum temps: 30 on the coast 32 inland.
Further outlook: Monday: Fine weather. Some low cloud early. Warm with southeast to easterly winds turning northeast. Dry and warm Tuesday to Friday, becoming very warm. Northwest to northeast winds. High cloud developing Friday. Chance of showers or storms Saturday with a southerly change.

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#115133 - 28/02/2004 16:41 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
Good afternoon Keith and Ben;

A mild to warm day with moderate northerly winds tending northeast this afternoon, fresh and gusty along the coast. Maximums around 27C on the coast and 32C out west (right on prediction). A sunny day, with faint high cloud patches developing to the southwest this afternoon. A weak high pressure ridge will bump north overnight and swing winds around to the west/northwest preceeding a frontal passage tomorrow. This, along with an overlying jetstream will bring some high cloud periods across the Metropolitan tonight. Cool overnight, with minimums in the mid to high teens.

Sunday will be warm with increasing high cloud, associated with a front around midday. Maximums won't hesitate to rise into the low thirties ahead of the change. 31C along the coast and 33-34C inland. Possible pulse storms on the ranges. Low cloud increasing in the afternoon, with showers a risk throughout, with a freshening south/southeast stream overnight.

Cloudmaster

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#115134 - 28/02/2004 22:51 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5297
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
Hey Scott and Keith.

A beautiful sunny day today, after another cold start (15c) it warmed up nicely and cracked 30c in the western suburbs. It reached the best temperature ever 27c here today, just pefect. It is not 20.4c. A high pressure system is finally weakening and clearing off as a trough system moves NE along the coast tomorrow, producing a fresh and gusty SE change and an increase of low cloud and cooler temperatures. A shower or two could persit behind the front but should clear quickly due to another high pressure system which should make sure dry, but mild to warm weather will continue. So far models don't indicate anything interesting coming along in the coming week.

For tonight and tomorrow: Generally clear skys, but high cloud developing through the night, and thickening, with possible mid-level cloud. Partly cloudy tomorrow with a cooler change in the early afternoon, low cloud behind the trough, with possible drizzle, and possibly a light coastal shower behind it. Tops of 27-30c coast, 30-33c inland. A possible thunderstorm, generally in the far northern suburbs and on the NW ranges, but it is only marginal.
On Monday possible early drizzle or a shower and partly cloud, low-mid 20's. A low risk early shower Tuesday before coming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Low-mid 20's also. Remaining dry but temperatures generally increasing as the week goes on.

:cheers:

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#115135 - 29/02/2004 16:09 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
G'day guys,

A very warm dry and mainly sunny day after some patchy mid level cloud and local virga associated with a weak pre frontal trough. A southeast change arrived here at 3.10 pm dropping temperatures from the maximum of 34, to 26 in a few minutes with a sharp rise in the dewpoint and barometric pressure. So far winds have reached 51 km/hr and are very gusty. Low cloud is increasing from the southeast.
This is due to a cold front moving along the coast and ranges, which will move into the Tasman overnight followed by another high pressure system that will ensure fine weather until Friday, apart from the risk of an early coastal shower tomorrow. Next weekend may see the return of an onshore stream with showers or rain developing, due to an upper trough.
For today and tomorrow: Mild fresh to strong south to southeast winds extending westward. Low cloud areas developing with a shower or two possible on the coast by tomorrow morning. Fine and mild tomorrow with sunny periods and low cloud patches. Fresh to strong and gusty southeast winds easing tonight. Moderate southeast winds tomorrow. Maximum temps: 24 on the coast, 26 inland.
Further outlook: fine weather until Friday and becoming gradually warmer. Winds turning northeast on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms developing Saturday ahead of a cooler southerly change, with showers to follow, possibly tending to rain early the following week.

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#115136 - 29/02/2004 18:25 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
Good afternoon Keith and Ben,

A light to moderate, but gusty and hot west to northwest flow preceded a fresh to strong, and very gusty south/southeast change around 1:30pm, with low cloud to follow around 2pm. Mid levelled cloud patches cleared afterwards. The heat build up ahead of this front, along with an overlying jetstream created some southerly buster characteristics, with winds reaching 40 knots along some coastal fringe stations. Before the change, most suburbs reported temperatures in the vicinity of 33-34C. Since then, winds have remained fresh, and gusty, and low cloud has increased significantly to become overcast. Light drizzle overnight, mainly in the eastern suburbs.

A fresh to strong and gusty south/southeast stream will keep temperatures once again below average for this time of the year, on Monday. Low cloud will remain dominant with the chance of drizzle, mainly in the east around midday. Brief sunny breaks in the afternoon. Maximums: 23C throughout.

Cloudmaster

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#115137 - 29/02/2004 19:35 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5297
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
Good evening Keith, Scott and Shane

A warm to hot day today (although it didn't feel it) with a late southerly buster, thankfully tollerable winds, but a few branches have been blown off trees around here and a few garden trees down. The winds have eased significantly now though. An unstable line of cumulus accompanied the change, and has now developed into severe thunderstorms on the mid-north coast south of Taree, and has produced 2cm hail and damaging winds. Low cloud has moved but has brought no precipitation yet. Light drizzle is possible throughout the basin, but it is more likely on the coast and elevated suburbs (around here). Cool SE winds should persist tomorrow with low cloud still lingering. Possible drizzle untul midday until sunny breaks develop as a high extends a ridge across NSW. Dry but mild weather with persist due to the high and its ridge. Warming up slowly by the end of the week, before another change late Saturday with an increase of cloud, but remaining dry.

For tonight and tomorrow: Low cloud with possible local drizzle areas but remaining dry. Lengthly sunny breaks developing tomorrow afternoon. Tops of 21-22c coast, 22-23c inland.
Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon with SE winds persisting. Tops of 22-23c coast, mid 20's inland.
Remainder of week : Fine and dry, maximums temps getting warmer along with minimums. N/NE winds developing Wednesday. Mid 20's grading to high to low 30's later in week for coast. Mid-high 20's inland early, grading to low-mid 30's later.

:cheers:

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#115138 - 01/03/2004 16:34 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
Good afternoon Keith & Ben;

Sunny and stable for the first day of Autumn, with a crisp southerly and patches of low and mid levelled cloud in the morning. Winds have strengthened along the coast this afternoon, and mid levelled cloud has cleared with the weak upper trough offshore. A large high pressure system is intensifying over the southwest Tasman Sea, in response to deep upper ridging through western South Australia. This will ridge across the eastern half of the country tomorrow, and be the cause of fine, stable weather throughout. This sort of pattern, combined with cloud free skies is conductive to cooler nights, and warmer days (broadly speaking). For the rest of Monday and overnight: Sunny and clear, with easing south/southeast winds. Cool overnight, with developing landbreezes and localised fog inland.

Another fine stable day is predicted for Tuesday, with morning cloud periods burning off. Early landbreezes will quickly shift east/northeast, and strengthen on the coast in the afternoon. A sunny afternoon, with decreasing cloud. Maximums: 25C on the coast and 28C inland.

Cloudmaster

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#115139 - 01/03/2004 18:28 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
G'day Scott and Ben,

We had a cool partly cloudy night and morning, then a mild to warm day with lengthening sunny periods this afternoon. Light to moderate south to southeast winds. Max temp was 23.
A large high is moving towards the SW Tasman Sea and will bring a few days of warm sunny weather this week. We may see some high cloud shearing off from Cyclone Monty which has crossed Barrow Island and will reach the coast in the next couple of hours east of Onslow. However I don't expect any rain from this in NSW; I think any rain that does fall will be over Victoria or Tasmania due to the upper high pressure ridge to our west. However next weekend the GFS model is expecting a complex offshore and inland trough and low pressure system. GASP does not forsee this and as I think it is less reliable at that level than the other, I am holding to my previous prediction of rain.
For tonight and tomorrow: Mild with some low cloud. Moderate southeast winds easing and turning light westerly. A dry warm day tomorrow. Low cloud in the morning, mainly clearing by early afternoon. Moderate southeast to easterly winds. Maximum temps: 25 on the coast, 27 inland.
Further outlook: Dry weather. Becoming gradually warmer with northeast winds. A mild southeast change on Saturday. Showers developing later Saturday and increasing to rain with moderate to heavy falls on Sunday and Monday, and freshening southeast to easterly winds.

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#115140 - 02/03/2004 17:18 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
Hey Scott and Ben,

Rather cloudy and cool weather today with a little drizzle late this morning. The maximum was 22 degrees. Light to moderate southeast winds.
A high is moving into the southwest Tasman Sea maintaining an onshore stream. This should result in a gradual clearance of low cloud tomorrow. After that we can expect a spell of mainly sunny warmer weather.
Models diverge at present on the scenario for the weekend and afterwards. While all agree on the deepening of a tropical depression in the Coral Sea, ECM has it crossing the central Qld coast while GFS has it moving south into the southern Tasman. The latest GASP model is not available at the time of writing. I still tend to run with the GFS model for that far ahead.
For tonight and tomorrow, expect cool cloudy weather with a little drizzle or a light shower. Mild and mainly dry tomorrow. Low cloud breaking by mid afternoon. Light to moderate southeast winds turning east to northeast. Maximum temps: 23 on the coast, 25 inland.
Further outlook: Thursday and Friday: Fine and warm. Some high cloud developing Friday. Northeast winds. A milder southeast change developing Saturday. Showers developing later, increasing to rain periods on Sunday with southeast winds freshening. Becoming fine later Monday with fresh to strong south to southeast winds turning south to southwest and easing. Fine and mild Tuesday with southwest to southeast winds.

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#115141 - 02/03/2004 19:33 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
Good afternoon Keith and Ben;

A mostly cloudy morning, with southwest/southeast convergence zones along the coast and adjacent suburbs. This setup lead to drizzle along much of the coast, until the southwest winds gave into the southeasterlies. No heavy falls were present due to a strong level of stability above 800hPa. The afternoon was mostly sunny, with freshening southeast winds, and persistant low levelled cloud in the moist airstream. Maximums: 22-24C. Overnight, should be mostly clear, and cool, as a deep radiational inversion develops. Morning mist periods, particularly near the coast.

Wednesday will be cool and mostly sunny as a high pressure system centres off Tasmania, and strongly ridges the coastline. Morning drizzle is possible, but mainly along the coast. Winds light southwest, tending east/southeast through the earlier parts of the morning, then moderating to northeast later, especially along the coast. Maximums: 25C throughout.

Cloudmaster

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#115142 - 03/03/2004 15:23 Re: NSW Daily Forecasting
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
G'day Scotty,

A cloudy mild day today with a shower or two about this morning chiefly coastal and in the north, isolated in the south and west. Light southeast to northeast winds. Present temperature is 25 and is unlikely to go much higher.
A high in the SW Tasman will move slowly further east in the next few days. Cloud should clear tomorrow morning but there is the chance of a shower tonight. Warm sunny weather will return tomorrow afternoon and persist until Saturday, although some high cloud is likely to increase on Friday before clearing Saturday, this being left over from Cyclone Monty.
Further down the track, models are still widely at variance in their treatment of the tropical depression in the Coral Sea. Whether the low remains offshore and tracks south, or crosses the coast, I think some sort of rain event will occur from about Tuesday, with the movement of the low to inland SE Queensland likely to have a more widespread effect. In the meantime a southerly change will affect us on Monday, but with progged CAPE and LI being quite minimal mainly fine weather will prevail.
Forecast for the rest of today and tomorrow: Mild and cloudy. Mainly fine. Chance of a shower overnight, chiefly near the coast. Light southeast to northeast winds turning light westerly later tonight. Cloudy tomorrow morning but increasing sunshine developing during the day. Light westerly winds at first turning moderate east to northeast in the afternoon. Fine weather. Maximum temps: 26 on the coast, 28 inland.
Further outlook: Fine weather until Monday. Becoming gradually warmer. Northeast to northwest winds, fresh at times in the afternoons. Some high cloud patches Friday. A cooler southerly change on Monday but remaining mostly dry. Low cloud increasing Tuesday. Showers developing overnight Tuesday or into Wednesday and tending to rain periods with humid east to southeast winds.
:wave: cool

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